And They're Off! The Democratic Candidates for 2020

[André]

Calm down, it's only the Iowa caucuses...

[Karl Henning]

Oh shit!  This doesn't look good for Bernie:

Pete Buttigieg: 26.9 %
Bernie Sanders: 25.1 %
Elizabeth Warren: 18.3 %
Joe Biden: 15.6 %
Amy Klobuchar: 12.6 %

62 % reporting...

The best scenario for Bernie would be a victory in Iowa, and then in New Hampshire; it's going to be interesting to see how Sanders & Warren square off in the Granite State.

If the numbers hold, it's both a real triumph for "Mayor Pete," and an argument for moderation.

Possibly not an absolute disaster for Biden, but bad news, all the same . . . may give his donors pause.

[Madiel]

I think it's safe to say that Iowa has become a disaster for the Democrats in general. What a mess.

As one comment observed, this was supposed to be the moment when Americans celebrated their electoral system post-2016 Russian taint. Instead what they got was hung up phone calls live on television.

[Madiel]

Oh shit!  This doesn't look good for Bernie:

Pete Buttigieg: 26.9 %
Bernie Sanders: 25.1 %
Elizabeth Warren: 18.3 %
Joe Biden: 15.6 %
Amy Klobuchar: 12.6 %

62 % reporting...

How is second place worthy of an "oh shit" reaction?

Only if you've been living in a fantasy bubble of commentary of how wonderfully Bernie is doing and how it's all the fault of mainstream media that they don't portray him as the runaway success...

[71 dB]

How is second place worthy of an "oh shit" reaction?

Only if you've been living in a fantasy bubble of commentary of how wonderfully Bernie is doing and how it's all the fault of mainstream media that they don't portray him as the runaway success...

The delegates don't matter in Iowa, but Bernie could have eroded the myth that he is not electable. Now thanks to the result reporting disaster and  the fact that Buttigieg is the one claiming victory people don't get that message. I fear people didn't even realize Bernie seems to have won the popular vote. So, Bernie didn't get much from Iowa. He could have skipped it like Bloomberg. Time and money "wasted."

Now 71 % of the results available. The numbers are almost the same.

[Madiel]

The delegates don't matter in Iowa, but Bernie could have eroded the myth that he is not electable. Now thanks to the result reporting disaster and  the fact that Buttigieg is the one claiming victory people don't get that message. I fear people didn't even realize Bernie seems to have won the popular vote. So, Bernie didn't get much from Iowa. He could have skipped it like Bloomberg. Time and money "wasted."

Now 71 % of the results available. The numbers are almost the same.

Again, I fail to see how coming 2nd, well ahead of Biden, fails to dispel the notion that Bernie is not electable.

For one thing, it's 2nd. For another, the argument about Sanders is usually about his general popularity rather than his popularity in a Democratic primary.

And Bloomberg did not "skip" Iowa. Bloomberg was not eligible for Iowa. I wouldn't have expected you of all people to give Bloomberg credit for a strategic move when what actually happened was basically being too late to do the paperwork.

[71 dB]

Again, I fail to see how coming 2nd, well ahead of Biden, fails to dispel the notion that Bernie is not electable.

Because the press is all that matters here. Have you seen the media writing "Bernie victorious in Iowa"? Facts are facts. The facts say Bernie was successful in Iowa, but HOW it is reported matters to how people think about Bernie's chances in this race and against Trump. Bernie needs a clear message of electability in the first four states to make people realize the myth of Bernie less electable than Biden is just a corporate myth based on zero facts. Come the super Tuesday people should know that Bernie can beat Trump badly and in in fact even the strongest against Trump so that people don't vote for corporate candidates just because corporate media told them "socialists" can't win. In New Hampshire Bernie should win with ease since the polls say he has got a massive lead there, but not all states are good for Bernie. In many states he really struggles compared to Biden. Hopefully the not so great numbers for Biden in Iowa make some people think if he really is as electable as the corporate media claims he is.

For one thing, it's 2nd. For another, the argument about Sanders is usually about his general popularity rather than his popularity in a Democratic primary.

Gold medals are won. Silver medals are lost. It's all about winners. It's psychology. Bernie seems to have won the popular vote in Iowa, but does the corporate media bring it up or do they try to hide it?

And Bloomberg did not "skip" Iowa. Bloomberg was not eligible for Iowa. I wouldn't have expected you of all people to give Bloomberg credit for a strategic move when what actually happened was basically being too late to do the paperwork.

He chose to enter the race last. It's his strategy, to carpet bomb the airwaves with adds to buy the elections in an oligarchic fashion.

[Madiel]

Have you seen the media writing "Bernie victorious in Iowa"?

Why would they? He came second.

Facts are facts.

Indeed. You don't seem very good at grappling with the one that you yourself posted, not least because nearly everything you're saying is geared towards a 2-person contest.

Including the ludicrous bit about gold medals being won and silver medals being lost. That explains a hell of a lot of what is going on in your head.

This is the first round of a very long contest. It's as if you're writing off a champion team in a European football league when they only get a draw on the opening weekend, or even got a 1-0 win while some rival scored a big win, and saying "well there goes our chances at the title this year".

[71 dB]

Why would they? He came second.

Exactly! That's why I wish he had come first!

Indeed. You don't seem very good at grappling with the one that you yourself posted, not least because nearly everything you're saying is geared towards a 2-person contest.

Buttigieg may find it more difficult to win in states with more black population.

Including the ludicrous bit about gold medals being won and silver medals being lost. That explains a hell of a lot of what is going on in your head.

Not in "my" head by in people's heads. In Finland the media is writing Buttigieg is now the leader of the race (what idiots!! Iowa is practically a white state so a person who didn't do anything to racism in South Bend police can win there).

This is the first round of a very long contest. It's as if you're writing off a champion team in a European football league when they only get a draw on the opening weekend, or even got a 1-0 win while some rival scored a big win, and saying "well there goes our chances at the title this year".

Yes, but the media writes "Buttigieg victorious in Iowa". How does that help Bernie? This sets the tone. Some people might think Bernie is a looser since he did not win in Iowa. Yeah, people are that stupid. One Buttigieg voter found out just after voting for Buttigieg that he is a gay and wanted her vote back. Apparently some people don't spent 10 seconds to learn about the candidates they are supporting. It all about feeling. Buttigieg feels good until you hear he is a gay. That is so stupid I have no words. When do people think about the POLICIES of the candidates, the things that actually MATTER?? Being gay or straight doesn't matter!! Being for or against medicare for all matters. People die or live because of opinion like that.

[Madiel]

Sigh.

Wake me in June.

[71 dB]

Sigh.

Wake me in June.

What do you expect me to do? I am a Bernie supporter and everyone here knows it. Of course I am disappointed of the situation where Bernie didn't get as much momentum as theoretically possible. Bernie needs of overwin to win because the system is rigged against him. Now he didn't even win. He was second. That is if the order doesn't change when the 100 % result is given.

[71 dB]

Conspiracy theories are out:

[71 dB]

The latest New Hampshire poll (Emerson 2/1 to 2/3):

Bernie 32 % (+3)
Biden 13 % (-1)
Warren 13 % (+1)
Klobuchar 12 % (+4)
Buttigieg 12 % (-1)

[Karl Henning]

Why would they? He came second.

Indeed. You don't seem very good at grappling with the one that you yourself posted, not least because nearly everything you're saying is geared towards a 2-person contest.

Including the ludicrous bit about gold medals being won and silver medals being lost. That explains a hell of a lot of what is going on in your head.

This is the first round of a very long contest. It's as if you're writing off a champion team in a European football league when they only get a draw on the opening weekend, or even got a 1-0 win while some rival scored a big win, and saying "well there goes our chances at the title this year".

Some people won't take reasonable success as a result . . . .

[Karl Henning]

We may not have complete results in Iowa before the New Hampshire primary. Think about that for a moment, and you can appreciate the utter waste of time and money that candidates have expended. One result of the Iowa debacle is perhaps some added importance for the New Hampshire contest for three of the Democratic contenders.

However prematurely and unfairly, the media likely will raise the stakes for both Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and former vice president Joe Biden. While Biden seems to have had the poorer outing in Iowa, he still has Nevada and South Carolina to fall back on where increased voter diversity should work in his favor. The situation is more dire for Warren, who is not favored to win either Nevada or South Carolina. If she cannot win in her own backyard, the pundits will question, where is she going to win?

[Karl Henning]

Admittedly, a hostile view:

If you liked the Iowa Caucuses, You'll Love Medicare-For-All

[71 dB]

Now 75 % of the votes in. No change in the numbers. Are the rest 25 % of votes from districts strong for Bernie and this way DNC upholds the narrative of Buttigieg leading? The left is REALLY pissed off about how this went. Come on USA! They have cleaner elections in Africa!

[71 dB]

86 % reporting:

Buttigieg 26.7 %
Sanders 25.4 %
Warren 18.3 %
Biden 15.9 %

[Madiel]

Now 75 % of the votes in. No change in the numbers. Are the rest 25 % of votes from districts strong for Bernie and this way DNC upholds the narrative of Buttigieg leading? The left is REALLY pissed off about how this went. Come on USA! They have cleaner elections in Africa!

I haven't seen any suggestions the Iowa process wasn't clean. It was just incompetent. There's a difference.

[71 dB]

I haven't seen any suggestions the Iowa process wasn't clean. It was just incompetent. There's a difference.

So there is nothing shady about Buttigieg donating $42k to the company developping the app they used? Why did he donate that money?
Why is there a significant difference between the Bernie campaign numbers and these released numbers? Why is Bernie 2nd dispate having most popular votes? A lot of weird things + we know Bernie is hated by the establishment and they REALLY want to stop Bernie.