Topic: Coronavirus thread

[Gurn Blanston]

To my understanding the cause of this outbreak was inadequate hygieny regulations regarding live animal markets in China. Different animals are kept above each other in cages so that the animals below other animals are exposed to the feaces and viruses are transmitted. If China doesn't fix this, the World can expect a new pandemic every 10 years or so... 

That's just what I understand and believe. I would just expand it a bit and say "wild caught animals", not livestock. Wild animals are a major cuisine item in China. According to a news item I saw recently, the Peoples' Congress (which I disremember the actual name of) banned the capture and sale of all wild animals. This is so anti-cultural that even in a closely regulated society like theirs, I can hardly imagine it being enforceable. It will just open up yet another black market opportunity. Still, the intent is good.

Maybe a bit less than 10 years?  SARS, Bird Flu, Swine Flu, This shit: all within the last 10 years, IIRC.

[ritter]

Spain’s Prime Minister will make an institutional announcement soon (it was scheduled for 2:30 pm, but is now delayed). He’s expected to declare the (constitutionally envisaged) “state of alarm” in the whole country. This “state of alarm” is one step short of a “state of exception “, but permits certain rights to be curtailed (e.g., restriction of movement, closure of borders, requisition of private property and intervention of factories, etc.).

At a local level, the Madrid City Hall has ordered the closure of all restaurants, bars and gyms (theatres, museums, libraries et al. were closed earlier this week).

Some towns in the province of Barcelona (around Igualada) are cordoned off, with no one allowed in or out, and residents asked to stay at home as much as possible.

[Rinaldo]

Trump administration blocks states from using Medicaid to respond to coronavirus crisis

Yay.

[drogulus]

     

     

[Gurn Blanston]

     

   

Wouldn't THAT be cool?

[greg]

No, but certain conspiracy theorists are fond to think so.

Probably because of the biolab that is like a block away from where the virus is thought to have originated. Seems like too much of a big coincidence.

Probably someone from the lab didn't wash their hands and walked over to the market and started touch food that other people would eat.

If it is a conspiracy then would it be the CCP trying to distract people from negative press (Hong Kong, Uyghurs)? It kinda worked but it wouldn't make sense comsidering how much it would backfire... or they really are that dumb?

(my bet is not on conspiracy, though)

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

In music news, the CSO just cancelled all concerts until mid-April.

We were planning to go to New York and Philadelphia at the end of March, but we cancelled that about a week ago.

My life is otherwise not much affected, since I work at home and other than the trip, didn't have any upcoming events scheduled.

[drogulus]

Wouldn't THAT be cool?

     I didn't mean that, I meant something else. My mission is to destroy the myths of "belief makes truth" wherever I find them. They can be fatal.

“The evil in the world comes almost always from ignorance, and goodwill can cause as much damage as ill-will if it is not enlightened. People are more often good than bad, though in fact that is not the question. But they are more or less ignorant and this is what one calls vice or virtue, the most appalling vice being the ignorance that thinks it knows everything and which consequently authorizes itself to kill. The murderer's soul is blind, and there is no true goodness or fine love without the greatest possible degree of clear-sightedness.”

― Albert Camus, The Plague

[André]

I agree with Simon NZ although a friend contacted me yesterday pointing out that the American author Dean Koontz's novel 'The Eyes of Darkness' (1981) features a global pandemic breaking out in 2020 as a consequence of a biological weapon called 'Wuhan-400'!

https://www.india.com/lifestyle/did-authors-dean-koontz-and-sylvia-browne-really-predict-coronavirus-outbreak-back-in-1981-and-2008-3967957/

My school is staying open for now and lots of the children live abroad anyway. All the overseas school trips are cancelled. The UK governments is facing criticism for not going further, like the French or Irish for example, but I'm not sure that they are wrong and they seem to be following the advice of medical experts.

I was due to travel to Coventry today for a History examiner's meeting but that has been cancelled which I think is sensible.

Hope everyone here (GMG forum not just UK) keeps safe and well.

Epidemic outbreaks have long fascinated writers and Hollywood. Not to mention all the stories about Jews poisoning wells during the Great Plague, etc.

Koontz wrote his novel in 1981 and set the action (epidemic outbreak) in Gorki, Russia - the archenemy and bogeyman of the USA in the Reagan years. The novel was reedited in 1989 and the plot moved to Wuhan, China (Russia was fast going down and no longer as scary a global threat in the Gorbachev years). Why Wuhan? Divination? ESP? Fluke? In any case, the epidemic described by Koontz didn’t look like what we have on our hands today. People died within 24 hours, etc.

To connect the dots (the missing link of the internet story), a 2008 page from a psychic’s predictions was added to the story. This time the epidemic’s description and timeline correspond to 2020 coronavirus.

IOW, to lend credence to the social media story, one has to believe in a book whose story is about another epidemic set in a different place, then transplanted to Wuhan, on top of adding a psychic’s prediction. Pour in a few drops of toad drooling and let cook on a full moon night for best results. 


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-koontz-book/partly-false-claima-1981-book-predicted-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I

Edited for typo

[Brian]

Epidemic outbreaks have long fascinated writers and Hollywood. Not to mention all the stories about Jews poisoning eells during the Great Plague, etc.

The author Lawrence Wright just wrote a novel about an influenza outbreak - the book is scheduled to come out next month! He has a fascinating NY Times column today about seeing some of his plot points come true, but seeing others get disproven. In his novel, the virus hits Mecca during Ramadan and 3 million people are quarantined in Saudi Arabia.

[vandermolen]

To my understanding the cause of this outbreak was inadequate hygieny regulations regarding live animal markets in China. Different animals are kept above each other in cages so that the animals below other animals are exposed to the feaces and viruses are transmitted. If China doesn't fix this, the World can expect a new pandemic every 10 years or so... 

That's my understanding too.

[vandermolen]

Epidemic outbreaks have long fascinated writers and Hollywood. Not to mention all the stories about Jews poisoning wells during the Great Plague, etc.

Koontz wrote his novel in 1981 and set the action (epidemic outbreak) in Gorki, Russia - the archenemy and bogeyman of the USA in the Reagan years. The novel was reedited in 1989 and the plot moved to Wuhan, China (Russia was fast going down and no longer as scary a global threat in the Gorbachev years). Why Wuhan? Divination? ESP? Fluke? In any case, the epidemic described by Koontz didn’t look like what we have on our hands today. People died within 24 hours, etc.

To connect the dots (the missing link of the internet story), a 2008 page from a psychic’s predictions was added to the story. This time the epidemic’s description and timeline correspond to 2020 coronavirus.

IOW, to lend credence to the social media story, one has to believe in a book whose story is about another epidemic set in a different place, then transplanted to Wuhan, on top of adding a psychic’s prediction. Pour in a few drops of toad drooling and let cook on a full moon night for best results. 


https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-coronavirus-koontz-book/partly-false-claima-1981-book-predicted-the-coronavirus-2019-outbreak-idUSKCN20M19I

Edited for typo

Good points André.

[Holden]

The effect here in Australia is minimal with three reported deaths (all over 80 years old) and sporadic cases being detected around the country. However, big events like the F1 Grand Prix have been cancelled and sports matches are being played in front of empty stadiums. The State premiers met with the PM and the country's Chief Medical Officer yesterday and while a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?) people, Scott Morrison has urged people to go on with their lives as normal and I agree with him.

That said, the Covid 19 'pandemic' has made me think of a number of questions that nobody has asked so far.

The first is one that might horrify many of you. Coronavirus, unless it’s severe, is self reporting. If you‘ve got it and the symptoms are minor (like a mild cold or just feeling a bit down) how many of you would actually go to get it checked out? I would say less than 10% because "why bother the doctor with something that’s probably not Covid19 but just a bit of a cold". (Some of you don't have anywhere to go anyway). If this surmise is correct then there are probably a hell of a lot of people walking around with this virus who don't know it. Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on? Is it coronavirus? It might be, who knows?

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you’ve been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications? The graph below shows that the most vulnerable are those in 70+ age group who have an overall 24% chance (1 in 4) of dying if (and IF is the operative word) they contract the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

There are other graphs involving comorbidity etc from this site. But the way I read those graphs is that it just looks like another flu season and not as serious as ones we’ve had in the past. The big difference this time around is that young children (comorbidity aside) have not been affected.

So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

[Marc]

[…]
So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

Trump tweeded something like the 'relax, people' message last Monday, too. Two weeks ago he predicted "this will be over in April."
And here (Netherlands), there were medical specialists also claiming that COVID-19 was nothing but a heavy flu, especially dangerous for the old and the weak (which is bad enough already, do not get me wrong).
And then, around Wednesday/Thursday, suddenly the tone completely changed, almost everywhere. I did mention to a colleague that I found that rather weird. I mean, Boris Johnson's words almost sounded like a funeral speech, Macron's speech was very serious, and our (Dutch) PM, who was also relatively relaxed until Wednesday, has stopped laughing altogether. Which is very noticeable, cuz he laughs a lot, normally. Of course the situation in Italy went from alarming to extremely alarming indeed during the week, so that could be the cause.

I really feel for the people who work in healthcare. They try to help as much as they can and take the highest risks. I read some reports here that many of them are very tired already. And this thing has only just started...

[André]

The self imposed isolation is meant to disrupt the transmission of the virus. Like going from an unbroken line to some kind of morse code. It will slow the number of cases on a day to day basis (flattening the bell curve) so the health system is not overwhelmed by a sudden peak.

[JBS]

The effect here in Australia is minimal with three reported deaths (all over 80 years old) and sporadic cases being detected around the country. However, big events like the F1 Grand Prix have been cancelled and sports matches are being played in front of empty stadiums. The State premiers met with the PM and the country's Chief Medical Officer yesterday and while a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?) people, Scott Morrison has urged people to go on with their lives as normal and I agree with him.

That said, the Covid 19 'pandemic' has made me think of a number of questions that nobody has asked so far.

The first is one that might horrify many of you. Coronavirus, unless it’s severe, is self reporting. If you‘ve got it and the symptoms are minor (like a mild cold or just feeling a bit down) how many of you would actually go to get it checked out? I would say less than 10% because "why bother the doctor with something that’s probably not Covid19 but just a bit of a cold". (Some of you don't have anywhere to go anyway). If this surmise is correct then there are probably a hell of a lot of people walking around with this virus who don't know it. Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on? Is it coronavirus? It might be, who knows?

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you’ve been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications? The graph below shows that the most vulnerable are those in 70+ age group who have an overall 24% chance (1 in 4) of dying if (and IF is the operative word) they contract the virus.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

There are other graphs involving comorbidity etc from this site. But the way I read those graphs is that it just looks like another flu season and not as serious as ones we’ve had in the past. The big difference this time around is that young children (comorbidity aside) have not been affected.

So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?

The basic problem with Covid19 is that, being a newly discovered virus, nobody seems to have natural immunity to it, and there is no vaccine for it now.  So it can spread much more easily than the normal flu virus. You just have to hope you get a milder strain of it if you get it.

[71 dB]

A warning in a language similar to English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYxLSpUZEuU

Prime example of how a very serious matter becomes unintentionally comical...

[Mirror Image]

I think like a lot of these outbreaks, the most important thing is to take personal precautions. In this case, wash your hands regularly (I hope people here and elsewhere do this anyway), practice good hygiene, and always know your surroundings and, more importantly, the people in those surroundings. I think there has been one case reported where I live, but by the way the media makes it sound, you’d think this was the apocalypse. I work in retail and I’ve never seen so many people scrambling to buy toilet paper, hand sanitizers, antibacterial wipes, water, bread, etc. Personally, I’m not going to live my life in fear and I think one of the worst things people can do in this kind of situation is to panic. This only escalates the problem. The perfect scenario would be for people just to stay at home, but this isn’t going to happen.

[Mandryka]

The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you’ve been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not.

At some point very soon the UK the government is going to ask well people in vulnerable groups to « cocoon » themselves - which, as far as I can see, is a sort of voluntary house arrest. They may be asked to do this for many weeks.  It will involve a significant lifestyle change and I’m sure it will be very unpleasant for them.

[Mandryka]

What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications?

The risk of death is increased if you don’t  the proper care if you develop pneumonia. And that’s the problem. There may well be so many people presenting with serious complications of the virus that the health system can’t offer them all the right level of care.

That’s why, I’m the UK, part of the strategy involves ensuring that vulnerable groups do not catch the disease.