Author Topic: Coronavirus thread  (Read 32453 times)

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Offline Herman

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2200 on: May 21, 2020, 02:43:48 AM »
because he likes Bolsonaro, and in several cases it looks like Trump doesn't close travel with countries in which he has hotels or golf courses. Remember, president is just his side job.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 02:45:54 AM by Herman »

Online SimonNZ

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2201 on: May 21, 2020, 02:50:43 AM »
Okay...but why are his supporters praising him for stopping flights from China early if he's still allowing flights from Covid-ravaged Brazil?

Offline Herman

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2202 on: May 21, 2020, 03:19:18 AM »
because they are ditto heads, applauding everything he does or doesn't, consequences be damned.

Online Baron Scarpia

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2203 on: May 21, 2020, 04:35:38 AM »
So, the U.S. is reopening. We have no vaccine, we have more experience treating the disease but no therapy which is an efficient cure, we have more testing capability but no viable strategy for contact tracing. Seems like exponential growth of cases and death will resume. Any reason to believe that this will not be the case?


Offline drogulus

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2204 on: May 21, 2020, 05:37:19 AM »
So, the U.S. is reopening. We have no vaccine, we have more experience treating the disease but no therapy which is an efficient cure, we have more testing capability but no viable strategy for contact tracing. Seems like exponential growth of cases and death will resume. Any reason to believe that this will not be the case?



     I don't think exponential growth is likely. There will be more cases and some additional deaths. This will be superimposed on the downward trend we are seeing now in many places that have been hard hit.

     
The Trump thread has reverted to locked, so I'll ask this here:

Trump is just now considering a travel ban for Brasil...

How has Brasil with its many and exploding cases of the virus not already had a travel ban?

     The TrumPutinists all over the world have taken the lead in the Rona Race. How they do that?
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Online MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2205 on: May 21, 2020, 07:23:40 AM »
Denmark is basically opening up now, with the exception of the borders (where for example decisions regarding ordinary tourism will have to wait at least a week, and likely more), large gatherings, and a few more activities and institutions.

So far, statistics are good, but with pleasant weather and people generally loosening up a lot in their attitude such as city / cafe / restaurant life etc., it's a gamble that might result in a set-back. The opening is due to relative success, economical pressure, as well as a psychological and generally politically one. Apparently the Social Democrat government itself would have liked a more restricted opening. Experts are somewhat surprised that the slow opening up, that started about a month ago, hasn't influenced statistics negatively, since they continue to improve. I hope for the best, but am also worried.

From a population of 5.8 mio, we've had less than 560 fatalities, typically 0-10 daily now. And as regards ICU-units with ventilators at hospitals, only 2% are in use. An ongoing survey of the population, not complete yet, using blood samples, seems to suggest that only 1% has developed anti-bodies, and likely not many more have been infected. The generally low infection rate seems to comply with the results in other European countries; even Sweden, with its different, less restricted approach and big number of fatalities, seems to have only 5-10% infected so far.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 07:45:32 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Pohjolas Daughter

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2206 on: May 21, 2020, 02:38:49 PM »
Denmark is basically opening up now, with the exception of the borders (where for example decisions regarding ordinary tourism will have to wait at least a week, and likely more), large gatherings, and a few more activities and institutions.

So far, statistics are good, but with pleasant weather and people generally loosening up a lot in their attitude such as city / cafe / restaurant life etc., it's a gamble that might result in a set-back. The opening is due to relative success, economical pressure, as well as a psychological and generally politically one. Apparently the Social Democrat government itself would have liked a more restricted opening. Experts are somewhat surprised that the slow opening up, that started about a month ago, hasn't influenced statistics negatively, since they continue to improve. I hope for the best, but am also worried.

From a population of 5.8 mio, we've had less than 560 fatalities, typically 0-10 daily now. And as regards ICU-units with ventilators at hospitals, only 2% are in use. An ongoing survey of the population, not complete yet, using blood samples, seems to suggest that only 1% has developed anti-bodies, and likely not many more have been infected. The generally low infection rate seems to comply with the results in other European countries; even Sweden, with its different, less restricted approach and big number of fatalities, seems to have only 5-10% infected so far.
What is the mortality rate so far in terms of percentage?  It sounds like from what you've said that it's incredibly low.  Do you have the sense that people have been good about social-distancing?  Perhaps a healthier population (from what I've heard over the years) is a big factor?  What are things like in your town/city re openings?  In any event, I wish you all the best and thank you very much for the updates.

Best wishes,

PD

Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2207 on: May 21, 2020, 03:09:36 PM »
The Trump thread has reverted to locked, so I'll ask this here:

Trump is just now considering a travel ban for Brasil...

How has Brasil with its many and exploding cases of the virus not already had a travel ban?

Brazil's leader adores Trump
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Online SimonNZ

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2208 on: May 21, 2020, 03:27:24 PM »
I know, but...what is the actual policy on travel coming in?

(can't believe I wrote "Brasil" twice)

Online JBS

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2209 on: May 21, 2020, 04:13:44 PM »
I know, but...what is the actual policy on travel coming in?

(can't believe I wrote "Brasil" twice)

Just your inner Brasiliero showing?

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Online SimonNZ

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2210 on: May 21, 2020, 06:18:27 PM »

Just 7.3% of Stockholm had Covid-19 antibodies by end of April, study shows


"Just 7.3% of Stockholm’s inhabitants had developed Covid-19 antibodies by the end of April, according to a study, raising concerns that the country’s light-touch approach to the coronavirus may not be helping it build up broad immunity.

The research by Sweden’s public health agency comes as Finland warned it would be risky to welcome Swedish tourists after figures suggested the country’s death rate per capita was the highest in Europe over the seven days to 19 May.

Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said the antibodies figure was “a bit lower than we’d thought”, but added that it reflected the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now “a little more than 20%” of the capital’s population had probably contracted the virus.

However, the public health agency had previously said it expected about 25% to have been infected by 1 May and Tom Britton, a maths professor who helped develop its forecasting model, said the figure from the study was surprising.

“It means either the calculations made by the agency and myself are quite wrong, which is possible, but if that’s the case it’s surprising they are so wrong,” he told the newspaper Dagens Nyheter. “Or more people have been infected than developed antibodies.”

Björn Olsen, a professor of infectious medicine at Uppsala University, said herd immunity was a “dangerous and unrealistic” approach. “I think herd immunity is a long way off, if we ever reach it,” he told Reuters after the release of the antibody findings."[...]


Why are Africa's coronavirus successes being overlooked?
Examples of innovation aren’t getting the fanfare they would do if they emerged from Europe or the US
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 06:20:04 PM by SimonNZ »

Online MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2211 on: May 21, 2020, 11:18:50 PM »
What is the mortality rate so far in terms of percentage?  It sounds like from what you've said that it's incredibly low.  Do you have the sense that people have been good about social-distancing?  Perhaps a healthier population (from what I've heard over the years) is a big factor?  What are things like in your town/city re openings?  In any event, I wish you all the best and thank you very much for the updates.

Best wishes,

PD

  Thank you! Yes, the statistics here are relatively OK, though for some comparable, nearby countries like Norway or Finland it is even better, whereas Sweden is bad. Sweden, having a less restrictive strategy and some serious problems in the sector for the elderly, has double the population, but is now at 4000 fatalities. This is sad, we often go to Sweden otherwise, also for vacation trips, but will abstain at least this year throughout.

I think the best worldwide statistics source (with obvious limitations implied in the very different testing percentages of the population in various countries etc.) is:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
+
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

  Our government was quick at a lock-down (around March 12th), and people were generally good at living up to the recommendations. Police mainly had to work with some modest, outdoor spontaneous gatherings in fine weather. Masks are used by almost no people, but there is a lot of disinfection stands and guidance signs in shops etc. I read that in the US, you have people disinfecting the shopping carts etc. - sounds good, but we don't. I wonder whether the harsh sueing habits in the US and the UK, and the relatively low hourly salaries for getting more workers temporarily, may be factors for those precautions.

  But I am very grateful to the Social Democrats government's safety approach, in spite of the pressure for more opening up from market-orientated political parties and circles. In the end, these political agreements have been verified by all parties in parliament, however, showing the state of a ~national emergency, but this consensus is now coming under very strong pressure and probably won't continue. IMO, the lock-down has increased people's general attention to the virus a lot, many lives have been saved, and the economy will survive quite OK. They say that the government's covering of some of the expenses for companies and for employees' salaries will cost a good deal on the state budget, but the estimates vary a lot. There are also many speculations whether our economy will change for the better in the long run, say due to future-orientated investments in green energy, education, local production as opposed to foreign imports, etc.; for example, the government has just announced investing in two huge artificial 'energy islands' at sea, providing green energy.

  I also hope that these events will result in more appreciation, also financially, for people working in the practical, basic levels of society; they were the ones who actually kept society going, through their daily work.
 
  It's been a month now with a gradual loosening of the lock-down. But since a couple of days ago life is almost back to normal, just with a few recommendations in daily life and transport, and very few places & the borders closed down. People have however become more relaxed & it is quite frustrating, if you're having a lot of attention to that - say noticing, how runners don't show much attention to others on footpaths, and people sitting rather close at cafes, etc. But so far, statistics continue to be good; we'll see in around a week whether this tendency continues. I really hope so; if not, stricter measures should be promptly re-introduced, but it will be very difficult.

  Personally I have a paid leave until July, then I'll get my yearly vacation payment, equal to a month's salary, and a lot of the time there's also the possibility to supplement with some free-lance work. The main job will hopefully start in late August again. So economically this hasn't been a problem so far, unless the main municipality job will be permanently abolished later. Though living in the city, ordering groceries from the internet was felt safer, say around every 8-10 days, combined with very little shopping. Didn't use public transport since early March, getting around with a bicycle has been OK, also for family visits etc., including some 40 km away, which was only nice and healthy in good weather ... :). I know of no personal acquaintances that have become sick so far, 'Touch Wood'.

Maybe others here can tell a bit of stuff like this ...
« Last Edit: May 21, 2020, 11:33:30 PM by MusicTurner »

Offline drogulus

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2212 on: May 22, 2020, 08:50:05 AM »

  I also hope that these events will result in more appreciation, also financially, for people working in the practical, basic levels of society; they were the ones who actually kept society going, through their daily work.

    In the US we don't do that. We appreciate job creators and love liberty for the deserving class that can shelter in place for like ever. Everyone else can sacrifice for the greater good.

    Things are not going well virus-wise for the Rona Troika.

     

     
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Online SimonNZ

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2214 on: May 22, 2020, 01:29:08 PM »

UK: All people arriving in country from 8 June must quarantine for 14 days


this wasn't the case already?? then what is the point of starting now??

Offline Pohjolas Daughter

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2215 on: May 22, 2020, 01:32:21 PM »
  Thank you! Yes, the statistics here are relatively OK, though for some comparable, nearby countries like Norway or Finland it is even better, whereas Sweden is bad. Sweden, having a less restrictive strategy and some serious problems in the sector for the elderly, has double the population, but is now at 4000 fatalities. This is sad, we often go to Sweden otherwise, also for vacation trips, but will abstain at least this year throughout.

I think the best worldwide statistics source (with obvious limitations implied in the very different testing percentages of the population in various countries etc.) is:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
+
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

  Our government was quick at a lock-down (around March 12th), and people were generally good at living up to the recommendations. Police mainly had to work with some modest, outdoor spontaneous gatherings in fine weather. Masks are used by almost no people, but there is a lot of disinfection stands and guidance signs in shops etc. I read that in the US, you have people disinfecting the shopping carts etc. - sounds good, but we don't. I wonder whether the harsh sueing habits in the US and the UK, and the relatively low hourly salaries for getting more workers temporarily, may be factors for those precautions.

  But I am very grateful to the Social Democrats government's safety approach, in spite of the pressure for more opening up from market-orientated political parties and circles. In the end, these political agreements have been verified by all parties in parliament, however, showing the state of a ~national emergency, but this consensus is now coming under very strong pressure and probably won't continue. IMO, the lock-down has increased people's general attention to the virus a lot, many lives have been saved, and the economy will survive quite OK. They say that the government's covering of some of the expenses for companies and for employees' salaries will cost a good deal on the state budget, but the estimates vary a lot. There are also many speculations whether our economy will change for the better in the long run, say due to future-orientated investments in green energy, education, local production as opposed to foreign imports, etc.; for example, the government has just announced investing in two huge artificial 'energy islands' at sea, providing green energy.

  I also hope that these events will result in more appreciation, also financially, for people working in the practical, basic levels of society; they were the ones who actually kept society going, through their daily work.
 
  It's been a month now with a gradual loosening of the lock-down. But since a couple of days ago life is almost back to normal, just with a few recommendations in daily life and transport, and very few places & the borders closed down. People have however become more relaxed & it is quite frustrating, if you're having a lot of attention to that - say noticing, how runners don't show much attention to others on footpaths, and people sitting rather close at cafes, etc. But so far, statistics continue to be good; we'll see in around a week whether this tendency continues. I really hope so; if not, stricter measures should be promptly re-introduced, but it will be very difficult.

  Personally I have a paid leave until July, then I'll get my yearly vacation payment, equal to a month's salary, and a lot of the time there's also the possibility to supplement with some free-lance work. The main job will hopefully start in late August again. So economically this hasn't been a problem so far, unless the main municipality job will be permanently abolished later. Though living in the city, ordering groceries from the internet was felt safer, say around every 8-10 days, combined with very little shopping. Didn't use public transport since early March, getting around with a bicycle has been OK, also for family visits etc., including some 40 km away, which was only nice and healthy in good weather ... :). I know of no personal acquaintances that have become sick so far, 'Touch Wood'.

Maybe others here can tell a bit of stuff like this ...

Nice to hear about what is going on in Denmark and yes, like you, I'd love to hear more about what is going on elsewhere.

I just read this story about a Bolivian orchestra getting stuck in Germany....quite interesting.  I do hope that they are able to go home soon.  And props to all of the people in Germany who have been helping them out; I love reading about people looking out for one another.   :)  https://www.bbc.com/news/the-reporters-52760380

Delays in farmers markets opening and extra precautions; hope to be able to go to one tomorrow (and, yes, I'll be wearing a mask).

Best,

PD
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 01:41:14 PM by Pohjolas Daughter »

Offline Daverz

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2216 on: May 22, 2020, 03:30:49 PM »
If you feel the need to knock off 50 IQ points or so, here's an interview with "Costco Kevin", a mask denier or whatever they are called.  I could only take a few minutes myself.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/1Quj3eWw26A" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/1Quj3eWw26A</a>

Offline Todd

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Online MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2218 on: May 23, 2020, 08:24:39 AM »
Some generally positive news:

- The press and doctors here are very glad about it, calling it incredible news etc.: a series of studies of Remdesivir, though still not concluded, seem to suggest that the lives of no less than up to 80% - and not just 20% - of the patients can be saved, when Remdesivir is used at the right time during the treatment. The main study source is https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764?query=featured_home

Organizations are worried though, that the sole company behind the medicine, Gilead Sciences, tends to demand extremely high prices for their  medicine, which may hinder a general use of Remdesivir; the company has a patent running until 2031. There is currently a dialogue between health organizations and the company. But some are suggesting, that a special WTO paragraph may be used, allowing breaking a patent in the interest of the public good, during an emergency.

- ECMO machines are now said to be able to cure people who have been confined to ventilation machines; the problem is however that ECMOs are very costly.

- The Norwegian professor Terje Andersen is quite certain, that old blood from SARS-patients is able to stop Corona from developing further
https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/i/wPGJp5/ny-medisin-kan-sette-koronaviruset-sjakkmatt-jan-terje-andersen

- also, there have been plenty of stories about the company Moderna's apparently promising vaccine
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna-early-results/index.html


Some further, Scandinavian sources, but googling will no doubt result in English-language sources as well:
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/professorer-begejstrede-nyt-studie-foerste-gang-kan-vi-behandle-coronavirus?app_mode=true
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-studie-medicin-reducerer-coronadodsfald-med-80-procent
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-remdesivir-skal-ud-til-alle-resultaterne-er-utrolige-siger-professor
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-danske-patienter-advarer-mod-virksomhed-bag-succesmedicin-vi-kender-dem-desvaerre

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/respiratoren-kunne-ikke-redde-28-aarige-charlotte-men-saa-blev-hun-tilbudt-ecmo

https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/i/wPGJp5/ny-medisin-kan-sette-koronaviruset-sjakkmatt-jan-terje-andersen




 
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 08:29:58 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Pohjolas Daughter

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #2219 on: May 23, 2020, 12:43:28 PM »
Some generally positive news:

- The press and doctors here are very glad about it, calling it incredible news etc.: a series of studies of Remdesivir, though still not concluded, seem to suggest that the lives of no less than up to 80% - and not just 20% - of the patients can be saved, when Remdesivir is used at the right time during the treatment. The main study source is https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764?query=featured_home

Organizations are worried though, that the sole company behind the medicine, Gilead Sciences, tends to demand extremely high prices for their  medicine, which may hinder a general use of Remdesivir; the company has a patent running until 2031. There is currently a dialogue between health organizations and the company. But some are suggesting, that a special WTO paragraph may be used, allowing breaking a patent in the interest of the public good, during an emergency.

- ECMO machines are now said to be able to cure people who have been confined to ventilation machines; the problem is however that ECMOs are very costly.

- The Norwegian professor Terje Andersen is quite certain, that old blood from SARS-patients is able to stop Corona from developing further
https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/i/wPGJp5/ny-medisin-kan-sette-koronaviruset-sjakkmatt-jan-terje-andersen

- also, there have been plenty of stories about the company Moderna's apparently promising vaccine
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna-early-results/index.html


Some further, Scandinavian sources, but googling will no doubt result in English-language sources as well:
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/professorer-begejstrede-nyt-studie-foerste-gang-kan-vi-behandle-coronavirus?app_mode=true
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-studie-medicin-reducerer-coronadodsfald-med-80-procent
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-remdesivir-skal-ud-til-alle-resultaterne-er-utrolige-siger-professor
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-danske-patienter-advarer-mod-virksomhed-bag-succesmedicin-vi-kender-dem-desvaerre

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/respiratoren-kunne-ikke-redde-28-aarige-charlotte-men-saa-blev-hun-tilbudt-ecmo

https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/i/wPGJp5/ny-medisin-kan-sette-koronaviruset-sjakkmatt-jan-terje-andersen
Nice to hear some good news!  I like the idea that if someone is charging really high prices for a drug and it's during a pandemic, that there might be a way to deal with it/them.   :)

Did just read this article which made me even more concerned (if possible) about what is happening to the Amazon.  https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51300515

PD