Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM
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Quote from: Holden on March 13, 2020, 02:28:54 PMa ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?)
QuoteHad a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on?
Quote from: André on March 14, 2020, 06:12:51 AMThe Great TP Run...
Quote from: Holden on March 13, 2020, 02:28:54 PMThe effect here in Australia is minimal with three reported deaths (all over 80 years old) and sporadic cases being detected around the country. However, big events like the F1 Grand Prix have been cancelled and sports matches are being played in front of empty stadiums. The State premiers met with the PM and the country's Chief Medical Officer yesterday and while a ban has been put in place on gatherings of more than 500 (where did they get that figure from?) people, Scott Morrison has urged people to go on with their lives as normal and I agree with him.That said, the Covid 19 'pandemic' has made me think of a number of questions that nobody has asked so far.The first is one that might horrify many of you. Coronavirus, unless it's severe, is self reporting. If you've got it and the symptoms are minor (like a mild cold or just feeling a bit down) how many of you would actually go to get it checked out? I would say less than 10% because "why bother the doctor with something that's probably not Covid19 but just a bit of a cold". (Some of you don't have anywhere to go anyway). If this surmise is correct then there are probably a hell of a lot of people walking around with this virus who don't know it. Had a bit of a scratchy throat lately? Feeling physically a bit down but able to carry on? Is it coronavirus? It might be, who knows?The second one sums up human nature. Your workmate has been diagnosed with it and you've been asked to self-isolate for 14 days. OK, you have a partner and three children. Do they self isolate as well? I suspect not. What is the actual risk of death from Covid 19 and what are the implications? The graph below shows that the most vulnerable are those in 70+ age group who have an overall 24% chance (1 in 4) of dying if (and IF is the operative word) they contract the virus. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/There are other graphs involving comorbidity etc from this site. But the way I read those graphs is that it just looks like another flu season and not as serious as ones we've had in the past. The big difference this time around is that young children (comorbidity aside) have not been affected.So are we shutting down the world just because we have come across something new? The death toll from the 'influenza season' in Australia last year was about the average - around 1300 people. Covid 19 has been here for two months now and we stand at 3. Or, is there something about this virus that our governments are not telling us?
Quote from: Mirror Image on March 13, 2020, 08:42:26 PMI think like a lot of these outbreaks, the most important thing is to take personal precautions. In this case, wash your hands regularly (I hope people here and elsewhere do this anyway), practice good hygiene, and always know your surroundings and, more importantly, the people in those surroundings. I think there has been one case reported where I live, but by the way the media makes it sound, you'd think this was the apocalypse. I work in retail and I've never seen so many people scrambling to buy toilet paper, hand sanitizers, antibacterial wipes, water, bread, etc. Personally, I'm not going to live my life in fear and I think one of the worst things people can do in this kind of situation is to panic. This only escalates the problem. The perfect scenario would be for people just to stay at home, but this isn't going to happen.
Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 07:34:35 AMShortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown.
Quote from: (: premont :) on March 14, 2020, 08:32:05 AMVirus can remain viable "in aerosols up to 3 hours, up to 4 hours on copper, up to 24 hours on cardboard and up to 2-3 days on plastic and stainless steel" a Princeton study awaiting peer review has found https://t.co/8AEaFd230k
Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 08:36:21 AMThanks, really helpful. Does the study also mention how these data compare to other coronaviruses? I ask because it's really important to put things in perspective (see the "10 times more deadly than the seasonal flu" thing).
Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 07:34:35 AMWhy is it that the mass media focus almost exclusively on the negatives and they almost never stress the positives?"The mortality rate is 10 times higher than that of the seasonal flu". True, but given that the latter is 0.1% it follows that the former is 1%, which means that he overwhelming majority of people who got Covid-19 will survive alright.Related: a flu --- any flu, be it seasonal or Covid-19 --- kills only people with previous and serious medical conditions. A person who has no, or minor medical conditions, will most likely survive the infection."There is no known antidote to Covid-19". Which begs the question how did all the people who are now cured of it survived? Either they did nothing at all (in which case their natural immunity was strong enough to annihilate the virus) or they were treated with whatever medication is known as being effective against other types of coronaviruses (in which case we must assume that it work against Covid-19 as well)Just earlier today on Euronews I've heard a Hong Kong virusologist stating that this damn Covid-19 is a virus sharing many, if not most, of his features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, so the most probable reason for its appearance is natural evolution rather than leak from a laboratory. While not completely excluding the latter hypothesis, I tend to agree with him. So far, so good. Shortly thereafter I've heard on a Romanian TV station that the European Center for Disease Prevention stated that the Covid-19's survival time on solid surfaces is still unknown. Good grief! (1) If Covid-19 shares many features with many other coronaviruses which have been studied, then for my engineer mind it follows logically that its survival time on solid surfaces must be about the same time as that of the others, give or take; (2) in AD 2020 is it that hard to establish how long a virus which people can be tested against survives on solid surfaces?The same virusologist mentioned above stated that it's wrong to be optimistic about the Covid-19 pandemic subsiding by April due to warming, because in the Southern hemsphere it's going to be colder (coming winter) and the cycle will go on. While this is true in abstract, considering that right now the vast, overwhelming majority of the infections are reported in the Northern hemisphere, the coming summer will most likely subside the Northern hemisphere pandemic. To my engineer mind it's highly unlikely that beyond April or May the Southern hemisphere will experience the same level of emergency as the Northern hemisphere right now.Last but not least, let's put the whole thing in a philosophical, metaphysical or religious perspective. 100% of those who get Covid-19 will die: a (very) few of them because it will aggravate their preexisting medical conditions, the vast majority of them because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die. 100% of those who will not get Covid-19 will die, because sooner or later, for one reason or another different from Covid-19, all people die. Carpe diem!I wish all GMGers and all their loved ones and acquaintances stay safe and healthy!
Quote from: Mandryka on March 14, 2020, 09:57:34 AMthe problem is that there will be a lot of people with serious complications.
Quote This is a problem because the health systems of the world can't take care of them all, and so some of them, many of them, will die.
Quote from: André on March 14, 2020, 10:19:55 AMIn Belgium, bars and cafés closed to business for 3 weeks as of yesterday night. But not before a last pint ! Belgians understand carpe diem in their own way. Yesterday evening in Brussels, police had to remove revellers from bars well past midnight...
Quote from: Florestan on March 14, 2020, 08:36:21 AMit's really important to put things in perspective
Quote from: Mandryka on March 14, 2020, 09:57:34 AMthe problem is that there will be a lot of people with serious complications. This is a problem because the health systems of the world can't take care of them all, and so some of them, many of them, will die.
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