Coronavirus thread

[Karl Henning]

Also: All coronavirus-related protocols, including social distancing, will be lifted at schools for the start of the 2021-22 academic year, and every school will be required to be back fully in person, state education officials told superintendents on Thursday.

School districts will not be allowed to offer remote learning as a standard learning model, according to the new guidance from the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education.

[Karl Henning]

The US has done good job*. Finland comes way behind:

First dose 42.1 %
Second dose 7.4 %

These are ref whole population, so among adults the numbers are a bit larger (maybe ~50 % / 9 %). Because Finland uses 12 weeks between doses-strategy, the second doses have just started (I won't be getting it until July 31) recently and that's why the number is so low at this point.

* However, the US might struggle getting much beyond this point as those not vaccinated are mostly anti-vaxxers. 

A combination of anti-vaxxers and MAGA-verse science denialists.

[71 dB]

Interesting in terms of number of weeks between.  But is this just for a certain vaccine?  In the US, the pharmacies, etc. went by the CDC and the manufacturers' recs (I believe).  I would love a link to what you are saying as I can't pull up something to substantiate that.  Is it more do to availably of vaccines or?

PD

The US has been the envy of the World in regards of covid-19 vaccine availability. The EU made collective purchasing of vaccines and due to some incompetence the deals with vaccine manufacturers were not good. In the beginning of the year EU did not get all the vaccines it had ordered. Manufacturers prioritized other countries such as the US and Israel. So, in order to vaccinate at least once as many people as possible as soon as possible (especially the elderly people in the greatest danger) many European countries adapted UK model of 12 weeks between doses strategy.  A recent study suggests 12 weeks gap generates 3.5 times higher antibody response in elderly people.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2021/05/14/study-finds-12-week-gap-between-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-dose-generates-35-times-higher-antibody-response/?sh=4e8f3cd8a6a3

The availability of vaccines has improved since, but due to this 12 weeks thing European countries lag behind in 2nd doses. Finland uses mostly Pfizer. AstraZeneca was used, but it halted due to the blood cloth thing. The willingness to get vaccinated has increased in Finland: Now 95 % of Finns think positively about Covid-19 vaccines. Older people are more willing than younger people (because the risks of corona are more serious):

90 % want the vaccine.

Among people older than 60, 97 % are positive about getting vaccinated.
Among 45-59 years olds 94 % are positive about getting vaccinated.
Among 30–44 years olds 87 % are positive about getting vaccinated.
Among people younger than 30, 79 % are positive about getting vaccinated.

Reaching the hurd immunity (70 % vaccinated) should be easy. It just takes time. Sometime in July 70 % should have gotten at least their 1st dose.

[71 dB]

A combination of anti-vaxxers and MAGA-verse science denialists.

Luckily we don't have many of those over here.  0:)

It looks like in regards of the 1st dose Finland will reach and even surpass the US in the summer, but in 2nd doseses Finland will need several months to surpass the US*.

*The US is very unevenly vaccinated. Some states (mostly blue) have reached almost hurd immunity while some others (mostly red) come far behind.

[Karl Henning]

Luckily we don't have many of those over here.  0:)

Hyvää, Suomi!

[Karl Henning]

'It's going to be pretty packed': COVID restrictions give way to full reopening at businesses this weekend

[Pohjolas Daughter]

The US has been the envy of the World in regards of covid-19 vaccine availability. The EU made collective purchasing of vaccines and due to some incompetence the deals with vaccine manufacturers were not good. In the beginning of the year EU did not get all the vaccines it had ordered. Manufacturers prioritized other countries such as the US and Israel. So, in order to vaccinate at least once as many people as possible as soon as possible (especially the elderly people in the greatest danger) many European countries adapted UK model of 12 weeks between doses strategy.  A recent study suggests 12 weeks gap generates 3.5 times higher antibody response in elderly people.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2021/05/14/study-finds-12-week-gap-between-pfizer-covid-19-vaccine-dose-generates-35-times-higher-antibody-response/?sh=4e8f3cd8a6a3

The availability of vaccines has improved since, but due to this 12 weeks thing European countries lag behind in 2nd doses. Finland uses mostly Pfizer. AstraZeneca was used, but it halted due to the blood cloth thing. The willingness to get vaccinated has increased in Finland: Now 95 % of Finns think positively about Covid-19 vaccines. Older people are more willing than younger people (because the risks of corona are more serious):

90 % want the vaccine.

Among people older than 60, 97 % are positive about getting vaccinated.
Among 45-59 years olds 94 % are positive about getting vaccinated.
Among 30–44 years olds 87 % are positive about getting vaccinated.
Among people younger than 30, 79 % are positive about getting vaccinated.

Reaching the hurd immunity (70 % vaccinated) should be easy. It just takes time. Sometime in July 70 % should have gotten at least their 1st dose.

Interesting.  I had known that Europe was having problems getting enough of the vaccines.  I did hear this news about a week or so ago.  Don't know whether or not you have?

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/17/997575473/u-s-to-ship-20-million-additional-covid-vaccine-doses-overseas

Hope that it helps various countries.  No idea how much is directed to where.

PD

PD

[71 dB]

Hyvää, Suomi!

Thaaanks! 

The double vowels and consonants of Finnish language can be difficult to foreigners, especially the correct pronunciation. You probably have seen phrases like "Hyvää päivää!" (Good day!), but the correct form is "Hyvä Suomi!" (Go Finland! or Well done Finland...) because "Hyvää" means actually "good something" and should be followed by the thing that is good such as day. "Hyvä" on the other hand means just "good", for example "Polkupyöräni on hyvä" (My bicycle is good).

If someone asks you "Mitä kuuluu?" (What's up?) you can answer "Kiitos, hyvää." (Thanks, things are good.)

Confusing? Don't worry Karl. It's a difficult and weird language. Thanks again for trying!

Interesting.  I had known that Europe was having problems getting enough of the vaccines.  I did hear this news about a week or so ago.  Don't know whether or not you have?

https://www.npr.org/2021/05/17/997575473/u-s-to-ship-20-million-additional-covid-vaccine-doses-overseas

Hope that it helps various countries.  No idea how much is directed to where.

PD

Europe is doing well compared to many other countries. The beginning was difficult, but things got better around April. Finland is vaccinating almost 0.5 % of its population every day. I have been aware of the vaccine donations. It is great that the US can donate vaccines to poorer countries. This is a global pandemic. The whole World needs to be vaccinated.

[Holden]

From the Brisbane Times, an interesting point of view expressed here that I would think applies to many other parts of the world. I don't agree with all of it but it carries a lot of truths.

OPINION
Politicians have spent decades dismantling almost the only solution to the pandemic

It surprises me that, though the nation's been watching anxiously for more than a year as our politicians struggle with the repeated failures of hotel quarantine and the consequent lockdowns, big and small, and now the delay in rolling out the vaccine, so few of us have managed to join the dots.

Some have been tempted to explain it in terms of Labor getting it wrong and the Libs getting it right – or vice versa – but that doesn't work. Nor does thinking the states always get it right and the feds get it wrong – or vice versa.

After the findings of the royal commission,  it is no surprise there have been so many COVID-related deaths in aged care.

The media love conflict, so we've been given an overdose of Labor versus Liberal and premiers versus Morrison & Co. But though we can use this to gratify our tribal allegiances, it doesn't explain why both parties and both levels of government have had their failures.

No, to me what stands out as the underlying cause of our difficulties – apart from human fallibility – is the way both sides of politics at both levels of government have spent the past few decades following the fashion for Smaller Government.

Both sides of politics have been pursuing the quest for smaller government ever since we let Ronald Reagan convince us that "government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem".

The smaller government project has had much success. We've privatised almost every formerly federal and state government-owned business. We've also managed to "outsource" the delivery of many government services formerly performed by public sector workers.

But the smaller government project has been less successful in reducing government spending. The best the pollies have done is contain the growth in spending by unceasing behind-the-scenes penny-pinching.

And here's the thing: pandemics and smaller government are a bad fit.

The urgent threat to life and limb presented by a pandemic isn't something you can leave market forces to fix. The response must come from government, using all the powers we have conferred on it – to lead, spend vast sums and, if necessary, compel our co-operation.

In a pandemic, governments aren't the problem, they're the answer. Pretty much the only answer. Only governments can close borders, insist people go into quarantine, order businesses to close and specify the limited circumstances in which we may leave our homes.

Only governments can afford to mobilise the health system, massively assist businesses and workers to keep alive while the economy's in lockdown, pay for mass testing and tracing, and flash so much money that the world's drug companies do what seemed impossible and come up with several safe and effective vaccines in just months.

But when you examine the glitches – the repeated failures of hotel quarantine, the need for more lockdowns, the delay in stopping community spread, and now the slowness of the rollout of vaccines – what you see is governments, federal and state, with a now deeply entrenched culture of doing everything on the cheap, of sacrificing quality, not quite able to rise to the occasion.

As we've learnt, a pandemic demands quick and effective action. But when you've spent years running down the capabilities of the public service – telling bureaucrats you don't need their advice on policy, just their obedience – quick and effective is what you don't get.

The feds have lost what little capacity they ever had to deliver programs on the ground. They have primary responsibility for quarantine and vaccination, but must rely on the states for execution. Then, since both sides are obsessed by cost-cutting, they argue about who'll pay – and end up not spending enough to do the job properly.

It took the feds far too long to realise that hotel quarantine was cheap but leaky. Every leak had the states closing borders against each other. The feds didn't spend enough securing supplies of vaccines, then took too long to realise a rapid rollout wasn't possible without help from the states.

Without thinking, Victoria initially staffed its hotel quarantine the usual way, with untrained, low-paid casual staff. It had run down its contact-tracing capacity and took too long to build it up – still without a decent QR code app. NSW let a host of infected people get off a cruise ship and spread the virus all over Australia.

The report of the royal commission laid much of blame for the aged care scandals on the feds' efforts to limit their spending on aged care. They couldn't demand providers meet decent standards because they weren't paying enough to make decent standards possible.

One of the main ways providers make do is by employing too few, unskilled, casual, part-time staff, who often need to do shifts at multiple sites. Do you think this has no connection with the sad truth that the great majority of deaths during Victoria's second lockdown occurred in aged care?

And now we discover the feds have failed to get the vaccine rollout well advanced even to aged care residents and staff.

Spend enough time denigrating and minimising government and you discover it isn't working properly when you really need it.

Ross Gittins is the economics editor.

[Karl Henning]

here were 229 Mass. communities deemed high risk for COVID-19 in January. Now there are zero.

[SimonNZ]

Second Pfizer jab a few days ago. Some higher than usual fatigue the following evening, little else to report.

[MusicTurner]

here were 229 Mass. communities deemed high risk for COVID-19 in January. Now there are zero.

Good to hear.

[71 dB]

Second Pfizer jab a few days ago. Some higher than usual fatigue the following evening, little else to report.

That is good to hear Simon.  0:)

If my data is correct, in NZ 10.2 % has gotten the first jab and 5.5 % the second. So, you are in good place for being among those 5.5 %.

[krummholz]

A combination of anti-vaxxers and MAGA-verse science denialists.

Yes, but not only. There are also folks who have trouble scheduling appointments due to crazy work schedules, transportation issues, etc. There's a definite racial / socioeconomic divide in vaccination rates as well (poorer classes at significantly lower rates).

And, one must distinguish between anti-vaxxers and the merely vaccine-hesitant, in some cases due to rampant mis- and dis-information on social media.

[MusicTurner]

So far, only 0.1 % of those who received complete vaccine later contracted virus, an encouraging survey covering more than 5 months here in DK says (less than 1000 cases, of more than 1 mio persons, with Pfizer and Moderna). A few of them might have been infected before the jab. As regards an only partial vaccine, the number is higher, around twice as many.

Apparently, the numbers represent people who got a diagnosis, due to feeling ill, not systematic testing.

[prémont]

So far, only 0.1 % of those who received complete vaccine later contracted virus, an encouraging survey covering more than 5 months here in DK says (less than 1000 cases, of more than 1 mio persons, with Pfizer and Moderna).

As far as I have read the people which are the most at risk of becoming ill despite vaccination, are the ones with depressed immunesystem. I am among them myself.

Do we know how many of those 0,1% which needed hospitalisation?

[Pohjolas Daughter]

So far, only 0.1 % of those who received complete vaccine later contracted virus, an encouraging survey covering more than 5 months here in DK says (less than 1000 cases, of more than 1 mio persons, with Pfizer and Moderna). A few of them might have been infected before the jab. As regards an only partial vaccine, the number is higher, around twice as many.

Apparently, the numbers represent people who got a diagnosis, due to feeling ill, not systematic testing.

Interesting.  Thanks for the info.

PD

[MusicTurner]

As I understand the SSI.dk website as of today, 10% of those illness cases with only one jab had hospitalizations, and a bit more of those who had two jabs, maybe 12%, were hospitalized. But there are some variable technical details influencing how to count this.

[Karl Henning]

Yes, but not only. There are also folks who have trouble scheduling appointments due to crazy work schedules, transportation issues, etc. There's a definite racial / socioeconomic divide in vaccination rates as well (poorer classes at significantly lower rates).

And, one must distinguish between anti-vaxxers and the merely vaccine-hesitant, in some cases due to rampant mis- and dis-information on social media.

Good point.

[Mandryka]

So far, only 0.1 % of those who received complete vaccine later contracted virus, an encouraging survey covering more than 5 months here in DK says (less than 1000 cases, of more than 1 mio persons, with Pfizer and Moderna). A few of them might have been infected before the jab. As regards an only partial vaccine, the number is higher, around twice as many.

Apparently, the numbers represent people who got a diagnosis, due to feeling ill, not systematic testing.

This is alpha data. The future is delta.