Author Topic: Coronavirus thread  (Read 177130 times)

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Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4400 on: June 12, 2021, 08:37:37 AM »
Indeed.

After the austerity of the lockdown, tourism to Boston is spiking dramatically now.  Some percentage of those folks coming in probably haven't bothered to vaccinate.  ::)

The consequences are obvious and easily predictable, so the interesting question is, why are governments letting it happen? I suppose that really they don’t give a fuck about the health consequences, and they care a lot about the economy. So they reason that a big wave in Autumn/winter is more than justified by the revenues accrued to hospitality and tourism in the summer.

Similar things are set to happen in the EU. I wonder if Que has any insight into the thinking of government about this.

What I find totally surprising is that the UK government seems to be behaving pretty responsibly.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2021, 08:39:38 AM by Mandryka »
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Offline Que

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4401 on: June 13, 2021, 08:18:43 AM »
The consequences are obvious and easily predictable, so the interesting question is, why are governments letting it happen? I suppose that really they don’t give a fuck about the health consequences, and they care a lot about the economy. So they reason that a big wave in Autumn/winter is more than justified by the revenues accrued to hospitality and tourism in the summer.

Similar things are set to happen in the EU. I wonder if Que has any insight into the thinking of government about this.

What I find totally surprising is that the UK government seems to be behaving pretty responsibly.

A lot in this crisis has been about economics money...

In the winter of 2019 local Austrian authorities didn't act and close ski resorts for economic reasons, This was a major spreading event in Europe which resulted in the first lockdown in March.

Then the EU was behind the game, not only because of more cautious authorisation of new vaccines but also because it didn't want to pay too much. The US just threw a massive amount of money at it, and ended up first in line. The EU indeed ended up paying less for its vaccines, but was it really worth it?  ::)

Then in the summer of 2020 several Southern European countries allowed mass tourism for economic reasons, leading to the "Ibizza" spreading surge.

And the past few months I have seen govts jumping the gun and moving faster than scientific advisors suggested. For economic (=political) reasons.

I must sound cynical, but it has been about money, the economy and votes from day one...

BTW The UK govt did not behave anything close to responsible during most of this crisis...
The UK was in a pretty awful situation initially with high infection rates and many fatalities. But Boris' chums at AstraZeneca got him off the hook with a speedy supply of vaccines and good old NHS delivered a quick vaccination program.

The reason why the UK is so cautious now, is because the vaccinations have slowed down and a new "Indian" variant that is 40% more contagious has spread like nowhere else in Europe. Probably more could have been done to prevent this. Anyway, now you would need a vaccination rate of roughly 90% to achieve group immunity (!) instead of the previous 60-70%.

And I'm not gloating, because eventually this will spread to the rest of Europe as well. No wonder that governments are considering vaccinating children over 12 - those vaccination rates need to be beefed up ASAP. If anti-vaxers would prevent group immunity, I can forsee lots of political tensions.

« Last Edit: June 13, 2021, 09:54:37 AM by Que »

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4402 on: June 13, 2021, 08:45:02 AM »


The reason why the UK is so cautious now, is because the vaccinations have slowed down and a new "Indian" variant that is 40% more contagious has spread like nowhere else in Europe. Probably more could have been done to prevent this. Anyway, now you would need a vaccination rate of roughly 90% to achieve group immunity (!) instead of the previous 60-70%.


Yes I fear that it will spread very quickly in Europe and indeed the US. By the way, where did you get the 90% figure for herd immunity from?

The problem I have is that it's really predictable what will happen, and yet Macron in France (the only European country I follow) looks like he's burying his head in the sand. Only yesterday there was some news that delta has been found in a flair up in Strasburg -- it's just not possible to keep this thing in check IMO.

I think the UK has been pretty responsible this year, and the level of information and dialogue with the public is so much better than in France. I can't speak for Holland, Germany, Spain, Italy . . .

I don't know that there's any point in vaccinating kids -- as far as I know there's no evidence to suggest that the vaccination reduces transmission, maybe you've seen something.


« Last Edit: June 13, 2021, 08:49:51 AM by Mandryka »
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Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4403 on: June 13, 2021, 08:48:46 AM »
Quote
I must sound cynical, but it has been about money, the economy and votes from day one...

In DK there's been massive critique of the government for not to adjust enough to the demands for reopening from the business life & its comrades during the whole pandemic, and really massive sums have been taken from state funds to compensate in stead. Virus experts have generally been satisfied with the scientific approach behind the government's policies, some have even wanted less lock-downs. Safety and avoiding a break-down in the health sector came first. Obviously, this strategy, resulting in less fatalities, also gave solid vote support. The economy seems to be recovering surprisingly fast.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2021, 08:55:15 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4404 on: June 13, 2021, 08:55:02 AM »
In DK there's been massive critique of the government for not to adjust enough to the demands for reopening from the business life & its comrades during the whole pandemic, and really massive sums have been taken from state funds to compensate in stead. Virus experts have generally been satisfied with the scientific approach behind the government's policies, some have even wanted less lock-downs. Safety and avoiding a break-down in the health sector came first.

What does avoiding a break-down in the health sector mean? In the UK we've not seen people taking their last dying gasp in a tent in a hospital car park, though to avoid that we had to ship elderly non-symptomatic patients to their nursing homes, where they promptly infected all the other residents and effectively killed them.  But the waiting lists for non-COVID related treatments are very long, and there are predictable excess deaths.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2021, 09:07:11 AM by Mandryka »
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Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4405 on: June 13, 2021, 08:57:43 AM »
There hasn't been big scandals of that sort in DK, since the number of hospitalizations has been quite low. Some weeks ago the health sector stated that the virus is no longer a hindrance for any other treatments. We currently have less than 100 hospitalized, and only once came close to the feared 1000 of them. There are, in theory, 1200 intensive respiratory care units, but we never came close to that number.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2021, 09:21:47 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Que

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4406 on: June 13, 2021, 11:44:59 AM »
Yes I fear that it will spread very quickly in Europe and indeed the US. By the way, where did you get the 90% figure for herd immunity from?

I used Dutch sources, and opinions and percentages vary.
But the general assumption is that if transmissibility rises significantly, so does the threshold for group (herd) immunity.

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-why-experts-say-herd-immunity-is-still-out-of-reach/a-57860285

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2021/05/08/covid-19-herd-immunity-looks-like-a-mirage-but-is-worth-pursuing/?sh=139a8f66381f

Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4407 on: June 13, 2021, 05:20:39 PM »
I used Dutch sources, and opinions and percentages vary.
But the general assumption is that if transmissibility rises significantly, so does the threshold for group (herd) immunity.

https://www.dw.com/en/covid-why-experts-say-herd-immunity-is-still-out-of-reach/a-57860285

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2021/05/08/covid-19-herd-immunity-looks-like-a-mirage-but-is-worth-pursuing/?sh=139a8f66381f


Thanks, Que, from the chap who wonders whether becoming a famous composer may be a mirage, but one worth pursuing.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
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nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Offline Que

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4408 on: June 13, 2021, 11:40:39 PM »
Thanks, Que, from the chap who wonders whether becoming a famous composer may be a mirage, but one worth pursuing.

 :)

Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4409 on: June 17, 2021, 01:33:05 AM »
It's been decided to vaccinate the 12-15 year olds here in DK, probably influenced by the recent virus developments, such as the Delta. That's 250,000 pupils, and it will be voluntary.

This will likely be copied by other nations, and of course provoke anti-waxers. However, about 95% of the people here, who were offered vaccines also accepted it, so far.

Number of infections etc. still going down here though, following the opening up. Usually 75,000 - 85,000 vaccinations per day, from a population of 5.8 mio, which is good. And there's a heat wave too ...
« Last Edit: June 17, 2021, 03:17:57 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Pohjolas Daughter

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4410 on: June 17, 2021, 04:37:09 AM »
One story about the impact of Covid-19 on the environment--the use of single-use masks and also improper disposal of them:

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-56322369

PD

Offline Spotted Horses

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4411 on: June 17, 2021, 05:45:10 AM »
I don't know that there's any point in vaccinating kids -- as far as I know there's no evidence to suggest that the vaccination reduces transmission, maybe you've seen something.

Data has long been available that vaccination reduces the rate of transmission.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

The mechanism is fairly obvious. The vaccine does not make a person entirely immune, but makes immune response faster and more effective. As a result a person exposed is far less likely to get a serious infection. With lower viral load you are spewing less virus into the environment.

Offline Que

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Offline Que

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Offline Irons

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4414 on: June 18, 2021, 06:30:32 AM »
My 17 year old granddaughter had her first jab yesterday. Thankfully no reaction yet as she was reluctant but we encouraged her to get it done.   
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

Offline Pohjolas Daughter

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4415 on: June 18, 2021, 06:39:21 AM »
My 17 year old granddaughter had her first jab yesterday. Thankfully no reaction yet as she was reluctant but we encouraged her to get it done.
Irons,

I cannot believe that you have a granddaughter that old!  You're too young for that!

In any event, glad that she went through with it and hope that all goes smoothly there.  Which vaccine did she get?

PD

Offline André

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4416 on: June 18, 2021, 06:56:29 AM »
My 17 year old granddaughter had her first jab yesterday. Thankfully no reaction yet as she was reluctant but we encouraged her to get it done.

Same here with our granddaughter. She was reluctant because none of her friends had gotten it  ::). Now she’s proud of being a pioneer  :P

Offline Pohjolas Daughter

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4417 on: June 18, 2021, 06:57:55 AM »
Same here with our granddaughter. She was reluctant because none of her friends had gotten it  ::). Now she’s proud of being a pioneer  :P
Yeah!  :)

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4418 on: June 18, 2021, 07:01:31 AM »
The Delta ("Indian") variant is on the march - Lisbon in full lockdown:

Lisbon ringed off at weekends as Portugal fights virus surge

Travel in and out of the Lisbon metropolitan area is to be banned over coming weekends as Portuguese authorities respond to a spike in new COVID-19 cases in the region around the capital.


That’s very bad news, if not altogether unexpected. I must say, from the outside looking in, Europe looks like a train crash in slow motion. But your leaders must have built the models, maybe they think there’s time enough to let summer tourism get a bit of a consumer cash injection, and for second dose vaccinations to catch up.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2021, 07:05:59 AM by Mandryka »
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Offline Que

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4419 on: June 18, 2021, 07:19:40 AM »
That’s very bad news, if not altogether unexpected. I must say, from the outside looking in, Europe looks like a train crash in slow motion. But your leaders must have built the models, maybe they think there’s time enough to let summer tourism get a bit of a consumer cash injection, and for second dose vaccinations to catch up.

Summer tourism will be a sandcastle IMO.... It just hasn't just sunk in yet.
Vaccinations across Europe have gathered speed, but probably not enough to outpace the Delta variant in the coming months. After that, we get a window of normality....untill we are hit by a new tricky variant - plenty of possible candidates...