Coronavirus thread

[Que]

I don't care about masks really (though I hate them), what's interesting is that The Telegraph is saying that evidence is that the health system is safe despite the rampant infection rate.  If that's true, that's good news.

Good news for the NHS. The huge focus on hospitalisations is understandable form a crisis management perspective. From a public health perspective we shouldn't overlook that people can still suffer from serious and long term health effects if they catch the disease, even if they do not need to be hospitalised.

What do you think nations should do about the possibility of new nasty variants emerging?

As long as there are hot beds of infection in the world, new dangerous variants will continue to pop up.
The only strategy I can see is containment measures every time this happens, to slow down the spreading of the new variant and to win sufficient time to be able to produce modified vaccines.

This will mean quick and severe travel restrictions and localised lockdowns, something most governments have been extremely reluctant to do. And if they did, it was way too late.

The problem with the general public and average politician is: if a problem is not visible, it is simply not there. Well, by the time you see it, it is too late....  Like with climate change. We live in the age of Simpletons....

But not all governments are run by idiots - the next dangerous variant might come from Russia:

"Germany will close its borders to Russians starting Tuesday to prevent the importation of mutated Covid-19 strains, the German Embassy in Moscow announced."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/07/03/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-july-2-a69117

[drogulus]

     The 6 most vaccinated US states are Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Rhode Island and New Hampshire. That's all of New England.

[Mirror Image]

Sadly a lot of people just can't be without "live" entertainment for a couple of years even if it means prolonged pandemic. Maybe this is an extrovert thing, because as an introvert I can't understand it because I rather watch tv home than go to a stadium with 10.000 other people and I rather listen to my CDs than go to a classical music concert. However, I know extroverts need other people as much as we introverts need to be alone...

A good point and I'd say I'm a mixture of both extrovert and introvert --- probably more introvert than extrovert truth be told. All of my life, I have never liked being around large crowds of people, which why I always avoided music concerts, sporting events (although I'm no fan of sports anyway), movie theaters, etc. Hell, I'm not crazy about going to malls either, but I do like to shop at bookstores to see if I can find the latest issues of classical music magazines. I think someone who needs to be around someone all the time is someone who isn't comfortable in their own skin and can't entertain themselves. Their hobby is constant interaction with other people and 'stimulating' conversation. For me, that's fine sometimes, but definitely not all the time. You and I are both lone wolves, Poju.

[Mandryka]

Good news for the NHS. The huge focus on hospitalisations is understandable form a crisis management perspective. From a public health perspective we shouldn't overlook that people can still suffer from serious and long term health effects if they catch the disease, even if they do not need to be hospitalised.

As long as there are hot beds of infection in the world, new dangerous variants will continue to pop up.
The only strategy I can see is containment measures every time this happens, to slow down the spreading of the new variant and to win sufficient time to be able to produce modified vaccines.

This will mean quick and severe travel restrictions and localised lockdowns, something most governments have been extremely reluctant to do. And if they did, it was way too late.

The problem with the general public and average politician is: if a problem is not visible, it is simply not there. Well, by the time you see it, it is too late....  Like with climate change. We live in the age of Simpletons....

But not all governments are run by idiots - the next dangerous variant might come from Russia:

One major problem in the Uk is that state sick pay is very low - years of evil inhuman Tory austerity measures designed to punish cruelly the working classes. And now we have long covid . . .

Re Russia and Germany, I'm not sure closing borders is a good response. I bet there's delta + already there (there is here!)

The UK strategy, a model for the world maybe, is to let infections rise and control hospitalisations with the vaccine. One downside is that there is more virus replication, and hence the probability of undesirable mutations is increased. I'm not at all sure what the best political strategy is to do deal with this.

[71 dB]

A good point and I'd say I'm a mixture of both extrovert and introvert --- probably more introvert than extrovert truth be told. All of my life, I have never liked being around large crowds of people, which why I always avoided music concerts, sporting events (although I'm no fan of sports anyway), movie theaters, etc. Hell, I'm not crazy about going to malls either, but I do like to shop at bookstores to see if I can find the latest issues of classical music magazines. I think someone who needs to be around someone all the time is someone who isn't comfortable in their own skin and can't entertain themselves. Their hobby is constant interaction with other people and 'stimulating' conversation. For me, that's fine sometimes, but definitely not all the time. You and I are both lone wolves, Poju.

Whether one is an introvert or an extrovert is down to the answer to the question "Do you charge your mental batteries by being by yourself or among other people interacting socially?" I'd say You are definitely an introvert like me. Being an introvert doesn't mean you don't want any interaction with other people. You just have a lower "quota", and social interaction drains your mental battery rather than charges it. If you are not into sports and you are not sporty yourself, you are probably "N" (iNtuition) type rather than "S" (Sensing) type personality. It means the sensory data from your body is not processed as accurately as it it with "S" type of people. That's why for example cold shower may feel extra cold for you or loud sound can annoy you more than others or you may suffer from bright lights more than others. I have definitely problems with cold or warm water on my skin. The range of pleasant water temperature is very narrow for me.

I'm fine with movie theatres, because I am not there to interact with all those other people and nobody expects me to interact with anyone. On the contrary, other people expect me to sit quietly and watch the damn flick! Malls are okay, because I am not expected to interact with anyone else than the cashiers briefly and in Finland (an introverted culture) interaction with the cashier is minimal.

[Holden]

One major problem in the Uk is that state sick pay is very low - years of evil inhuman Tory austerity measures designed to punish cruelly the working classes. And now we have long covid . . .

Re Russia and Germany, I'm not sure closing borders is a good response. I bet there's delta + already there (there is here!)

The UK strategy, a model for the world maybe, is to let infections rise and control hospitalisations with the vaccine. One downside is that there is more virus replication, and hence the probability of undesirable mutations is increased. I'm not at all sure what the best political strategy is to do deal with this.

The UK strategy is really the only viable option. Covid is not going to go away so we have to learn to live with it. This means vaccinations (maybe anually as it continues to mutate) and carrying on as normal. The Australian States approach of elimination is just plain head in the sand crazy. The Kiwis are even worse and have barely started their vaccination program but then again, if their PM had another brain it would be lonely so it's not surprising.

[Mandryka]

The UK strategy is really the only viable option. Covid is not going to go away so we have to learn to live with it. This means vaccinations (maybe anually as it continues to mutate) and carrying on as normal. The Australian States approach of elimination is just plain head in the sand crazy. The Kiwis are even worse and have barely started their vaccination program but then again, if their PM had another brain it would be lonely so it's not surprising.

The UK strategy is to induce herd immunity by (1) vaccinating adults  and (2) opening up more or less fully while (3) monitoring the new variants which emerge by doing a lot of sequencing. The hope is that the vaccination will prevent the health service being flooded.  One alternative would be to vaccinate the whole population, not just adults. It's not clear to me how parents will react to the way their kids are being used, when it dawns on them what's happening.  Kids can get long covid.

(3) is an important part of it. If your country doesn't have good sequencing capacity then it is kind of playing with fire to let the infection rate become really high.

[Que]

Here as of last week children aged 12-17 are eligible for vaccination. It seems 60-70% of parents will let their children get vaccinated. 16 and 17 year olds are legally allowed to make their own decision in the matter.

I think it is important that teenagers get vaccinated. It's safe, they still run a health risk even it is small and they have been an important factor in the spreading of the infection.

[Mandryka]

Here as of last week children aged 12-17 are eligible for vaccination. It seems 60-70% of parents will let their children get vaccinated. 16 and 17 year olds are legally allowed to make their own decision in the matter.

I think it is important that teenagers get vaccinated. It's safe, they still run a health risk even it is small and they have been an important factor in the spreading of the infection.

Part of the issue is whether it's effective to vaccinate children when not all adults have been vaccinated.

[Que]

Part of the issue is whether it's effective to vaccinate children when not all adults have been vaccinated.

Not sure why you think it might not be effective.

If you want to reach a 85-90% vaccination rate it is a necessity.

[Mandryka]

Not sure why you think it might not be effective.

If you want to reach a 85-90% vaccination rate it is a necessity.

I didn't mean that, I just meant that where you have unvaccinated adults it may be better to offer the vaccine to them before you offer it to children.

Anyway, I came here to say that there has just been a difficult and interesting press conference in the UK and I think you should watch it if you want to get a glimpse at what the world will look like living with delta.

It seems to me that the main message was that they are hoping to be able to let the country have a period of "freedom" from July 19th, and that it will continue until the end of the summer. They will then review this with an eye to reinstating some covid legislation.

There was some discussion about how they expect cases and hospitalisations to grow. It seems clear that they think that the school holidays will make the growth in new cases slow down significantly -- the term they use is "firebreak"

Whitty (the Chief Medical Officer for England) said their projections show that there will be a natural peak in the epidemic, and that this will happen before the NHS is stressed to the same levels as it was in January. Can someone explain to me why there will be a "natural peak?"

Whitty also said that he thought opening up now is better in terms of impact on the hospital system than opening up in Autumn, when more adults are vaccinated. Again, I don't understand why that should be. Can someone explain? His words were

Going in the summer has some advantages, all other things being equal, to opening up in the autumn when schools are going back and we're heading into the winter period and the NHS tends to be under greatest pressure for many other reasons.

https://www.youtube.com/v/9C0vDBb1USI&ab_channel=10DowningStreet

[Que]

I didn't mean that, I just meant that where you have unvaccinated adults it may be better to offer the vaccine to them before you offer it to children.

I see. Well, that is not the case: everybody else already got the opportunity to be scheduled for vaccination before teenagers. Though in hindsight I wonder whether it was such a smart idea to keep the teenagers for last, given the ease and speed in which they infected each other and subsequently other generations within their families. I'm sure epidemiologists will do some research on that.

Anyway, I came here to say that there has just been a difficult and interesting press conference in the UK and I think you should watch it if you want to get a glimpse at what the world will look like living with delta.

It seems to me that the main message was that they are hoping to be able to let the country have a period of "freedom" from July 19th, and that it will continue until the end of the summer. They will then review this with an eye to reinstating some covid legislation.

There was some discussion about how they expect cases and hospitalisations to grow. It seems clear that they think that the school holidays will make the growth in new cases slow down significantly -- the term they use is "firebreak"

Whitty (the Chief Medical Officer for England) said their projections show that there will be a natural peak in the epidemic, and that this will happen before the NHS is stressed to the same levels as it was in January. Can someone explain to me why there will be a "natural peak?"

Whitty also said that he thought opening up now is better in terms of impact on the hospital system than opening up in Autumn, when more adults are vaccinated. Again, I don't understand why that should be. Can someone explain? His words were

https://www.youtube.com/v/9C0vDBb1USI&ab_channel=10DowningStreet

What I get from that is that your govt is accepting a certain number - a higher number - of infections, because they prefer to have infections spread out over time instead of having them concentrated after the summer with a (higher) peak in autumn and winter. School vacations will take away an important factor in the spreading of the virus ("firebreak") and provide a slow down. I guess they take into account that spreading is currently mainly amongst the young. A "natural peak" is the point when the spreading of an infection dies down (like a fire) because a lack of available hosts (fuel) due to immunity.

The approach seems to revert back to the initial UK strategy at the start of the pandemic: forget restrictions, let the epidemic run its natural course. Well, less natural now because a large portion of the population is vaccinated. And new infections will mainly occur amongst the young, so that's OK because most of them will not need hospitalisation. So the NHS is in the clear.

[Mandryka]

The minister of Health has just said this

This is uncharted territory for anyone, any country in the world. As you go further out, week by week, then the numbers in terms of projections are even less reliable. But I said this in parliament yesterday, that by the time we get to 19 July we would expect the case numbers by then to be at least double what they are now – so around 50,000 new cases a day. As we ease and go into the summer, we expect them to rise significantly and they could go as high as 100,000 case numbers. We want to be very straightforward about this, what we can expect in terms of case numbers. But what matters more than anything is the hospitalisation and death numbers, and that is where the link is really weak.

What interests me is this claim: But what matters more than anything is the hospitalisation and death numbers, In particular, what should a state do about new variants emerging?

School holidays begin 26 July here.

[Mandryka]

There's also a bit of good news for the world in this morning's Guardian, which says

Earlier on Sky News, Javid said that the rising case numbers are only leading to 1/30th of the level of hospitalisations as they were before the vaccination programme.

Before vaccinations, hospitalisations were at about 8 or 9% of cases. So now they are at about 0.3%. If that's right, the UK strategy looks doable to me, as far as the impact of delta on hospitals is concerned.

[Que]

The minister of Health has just said this

What interests me is this claim: But what matters more than anything is the hospitalisation and death numbers,

It is abundantly clear that that is the sole concern of the UK govt. Nevertheless: lifting restrictions when the number of infections rises still means additional cases, some with long term health issues, and more hospitalisations - even if the number is sufficiently low to manage.

In particular, what should a state do about new variants emerging?

If a variant emerges against which current vaccines are (mostly) ineffective, the whole strategy of letting the epidemic run its natural course falls flat on its face... Though given the numbers,  statistically such a variant is more likely to come from abroad.

[Mandryka]

Though given the numbers,  statistically such a variant is more likely to come from abroad.

Yes, but you're in Holland. I mean, Britain is abroad for you 

[Mandryka]

It is abundantly clear that that is the sole concern of the UK govt

Their primary concern is to get people back to work and spending money. They only care about hospital admissions because pictures of people taking their last gasp in a marquee on a carpark might effect their popularity at election time.

[Holden]

A point of view from Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOJOj3Pmz_s

So, what are your media telling you? The same as us - the number of cases? We got locked down last week because of FOUR cases all of which were mild.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

A point of view from Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOJOj3Pmz_s

So, what are your media telling you? The same as us - the number of cases? We got locked down last week because of FOUR cases all of which were mild.

I haven't checked out your youtube link [yet], but 4 mild cases causing lockdown?  And how severely?

PD

[Que]

A point of view from Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOJOj3Pmz_s

So, what are your media telling you? The same as us - the number of cases? We got locked down last week because of FOUR cases all of which were mild.

With a low number of cases, a "track and trace" strategy is not only less disruptive but also much more effective.