Author Topic: Coronavirus thread  (Read 180939 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Irons

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 3195
  • Location: Surrey, UK
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4640 on: July 21, 2021, 05:24:48 AM »
Trust that you had a nice time with your friend?  How crowded was it in there and were any people wearing masks?  And was it a combo of indoor and outdoor tables for use?  Knock on wood, I hope that all goes well--or at least as well as possible.

PD

A visit to a Supermarket today - oh joy! Without exception everyone masked up.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 59984
  • Et quid amabo nisi quod ænigma est?
    • Henningmusick
  • Location: Boston, Mass.
  • Currently Listening to:
    Shostakovich, D. Scarlattii, Stravinsky, JS Bach, Liszt, Martinů, Haydn, Henning
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4641 on: July 21, 2021, 05:42:31 AM »
“We have an influx of tourists, as well as people from the July Fourth weekend, which has put people in closer proximity with each other and these factors are contributing to the cases in several towns in Barnstable County,” she said.

Reverberations from the Provincetown outbreak are already reaching Boston. The city’s Public Health Commission reported at least 35 COVID-19 cases in Boston residents have been traced back to Provincetown and the “overwhelming majority of those have been fully vaccinated,” officials said in a statement Tuesday.

Cape Cod is weathering a surge in COVID cases at the height of tourism season — including many among vaccinated people


Well, I'm masking up again whenever I go grocery shopping.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Offline Pohjolas Daughter

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 6213
  • Location: USA
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4642 on: July 21, 2021, 06:13:35 AM »
A visit to a Supermarket today - oh joy! Without exception everyone masked up.
Oh, boy!  A big excursion for you!  :)  Had you been shopping a small local places instead?  Or having groceries delivered?  I know that your wife is good at canning, but still...

I've been shopping at supermarkets and local small grocery store, but often times tried not to go quite as often.  Mask restrictions have been lifted in I think pretty much everywhere in my state--though doctors' offices and hospitals still require them.  I still wear one when going into town as a precaution.  Haven't tried eating out yet though have done take out a few times.

PD

p.s.  Glad that the farmers markets are back too!

Offline Mandryka

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 16767
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4643 on: July 22, 2021, 05:38:03 AM »
The only viable response is to vaccinate everyone as quickly as possible, then relax restrictions. The fact that every manufacturer capable of making vaccine is not doing so at the fastest possible rate, and that in the U.S., where enough vaccine doses were purchased for the entire country, lots of vaccine are expiring without being used, indicates the utter failure of our culture and economy.

What's wrong with the UK's plan re vaccinating kids? I thought it was genius, given that the risk/benefit analysis of vaccinating children isn't clearly in the children's favour.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Offline Mandryka

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 16767
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4644 on: July 22, 2021, 05:41:15 AM »

But I agree that restrictions should not be lifted until sufficient vaccine coverage for "herd immunity" has been reached.

That's NEVER going to happen! The vaccines wane, the vaccines are not 100% effective, the variants are easily transmitted, there are ethical problems about vaccinating children.  You've got to find a way of living with it, because it's here to stay.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Offline Irons

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 3195
  • Location: Surrey, UK
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4645 on: July 22, 2021, 06:03:37 AM »
That's NEVER going to happen! The vaccines wane, the vaccines are not 100% effective, the variants are easily transmitted, there are ethical problems about vaccinating children.  You've got to find a way of living with it, because it's here to stay.

Agreed. The cure is damaging the UK at present far more then Covid itself. The "pinging" NHS app is a perfect example of this which is creating chaos. Maybe I'm being ultra-pessimistic but ten days off on full pay if my smart phone pings........
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

Offline (: premont :)

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 9873
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4646 on: July 22, 2021, 06:18:08 AM »
That's NEVER going to happen! The vaccines wane, the vaccines are not 100% effective, the variants are easily transmitted, there are ethical problems about vaccinating children.  You've got to find a way of living with it, because it's here to stay.

The only way of living with it is to counterbalance the actual lack of herd immunity with the necessary restrictions. Otherwise you will soon face a pandemic completely out of control.
As soon as a word has left the lips, not even the fastest horse can catch up with it.

Offline Pohjolas Daughter

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 6213
  • Location: USA
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4647 on: July 22, 2021, 06:25:19 AM »
Agreed. The cure is damaging the UK at present far more then Covid itself. The "pinging" NHS app is a perfect example of this which is creating chaos. Maybe I'm being ultra-pessimistic but ten days off on full pay if my smart phone pings........
I heard this morning (over good ole NPR) about that "pinging" and the subsequent self-isolation for 10 days and that the pinging was on the rise.  By the way, how does that work regarding pay--particularly as far as small businesses are concerned?  Do you have to use up any sick leave and/or vacation time that you (one) have, or???  Who pays?

PD

Offline Mandryka

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 16767
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4648 on: July 22, 2021, 08:02:49 AM »
The only way of living with it is to counterbalance the actual lack of herd immunity with the necessary restrictions. Otherwise you will soon face a pandemic completely out of control.

Can it not just bubble away with an R at about 1?  And of course those who really don't want to catch it will impose the necessary restrictions on themselves.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2021, 08:04:53 AM by Mandryka »
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Offline (: premont :)

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 9873
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4649 on: July 22, 2021, 10:13:52 AM »
Can it not just bubble away with an R at about 1?

The latest estimate from our experts is that 86% of the population must be immune to the Delta variant, if one wants R to be below 1.

Quote from: Mandryka
And of course those who really don't want to catch it will impose the necessary restrictions on themselves.

If the virus is allowed to spread freely before a sufficient number of people are vaccinated, the people in the vulnerable group (some suffering from different diseases and others for whom the effect of vaccination for unknown reasons is insufficient - at least 10% of the population in all) will have to isolate themselves completely and even avoid contact with their closest relatives. So for them the necessary limitations are enormous.

And it is not that they just don't want to catch the virus, - it's a matter of life or death.
As soon as a word has left the lips, not even the fastest horse can catch up with it.

Offline Mandryka

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 16767
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4650 on: July 22, 2021, 10:20:16 AM »
The latest estimate from our experts is that 86% of the population must be immune to the Delta variant, if one wants R to be below 1.


When you say immune to the delta variant, what do you mean? Fully vaccinated people seem to be less likely to transmit a dose, to develop symptoms, to develop serious symptoms, to die. All at different rates.

I'd be interested to see the model, if the paper is in a language I can understand.



If the virus is allowed to spread freely before a sufficient number of people are vaccinated, the people in the vulnerable group (some suffering from different diseases and others for whom the effect of vaccination for unknown reasons is insufficient - at least 10% of the population in all) will have to isolate themselves completely and even avoid contact with their closest relatives. So for them the necessary limitations are enormous.

And it is not that they just don't want to catch the virus, - it's a matter of life or death.

I don't have an answer to this set of serious problems, especially given my interrogations about what a "sufficient number of people are vaccinated" is and about the ethics of vaccinating children. 

« Last Edit: July 22, 2021, 10:25:03 AM by Mandryka »
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Offline (: premont :)

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 9873
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4651 on: July 22, 2021, 10:47:56 AM »
When you say immune to the delta variant, what do you mean. Fully vaccinated people seem to be less likely to transmit a dose, to develop symptoms, to develop serious symptoms, to die. All at different rates.

I'd be interested to see the model, if the paper is in a language I can understand.

I don't have an answer to this set of serious problems, especially given my interrogations about what a "sufficient number of people are vaccinated" is and about the ethics of vaccinating children.

Immunity means that one neither catches the virus nor transmits it actively. Anyway because a number of the vaccinated people still catches and maybe transmits the virus, the number of vaccinated people must be higher than the degree of immunity one wants to obtain. I have not seen the details of the calculations are published, maybe Music Turner knows.

Concerning vaccination of children: Vaccination against Rubella is offered to boys also, even if they as well as never get problems themselves when contracting the disease. They are vaccinated to prevent that they, if they contract the disease, transmit it to a susceptible person in this case a pregnant woman - high risk of serious foetus problems with this disease. So here is a parallel to the corona issue.
As soon as a word has left the lips, not even the fastest horse can catch up with it.

Offline Mandryka

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 16767
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4652 on: July 22, 2021, 11:03:55 AM »

Concerning vaccination of children: Vaccination against Rubella is offered to boys also, even if they as well as never get problems themselves when contracting the disease. They are vaccinated to prevent that they, if they contract the disease, transmit it to a susceptible person in this case a pregnant woman - high risk of serious foetus problems with this disease. So here is a parallel to the corona issue.

I didn't know that, and I don't know whether the risk of a serious side effect from the rubella vaccine is greater than for the covid vaccines, in children. Anyway the UK strategy of vaccinating just children at higher risk from COVID and those living with particularly vulnerable adults seems to me an ingenious compromise.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Offline (: premont :)

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 9873
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4653 on: July 22, 2021, 11:29:24 AM »
I didn't know that, and I don't know whether the risk of a serious side effect from the rubella vaccine is greater than for the covid vaccines, in children. Anyway the UK strategy of vaccinating just children at higher risk from COVID and those living with particularly vulnerable adults seems to me an ingenious compromise.

We haven't here had any serious side effects neither from Rubella vaccine nor from the RNA vaccines.

To me the important point is that corona vaccination of children is optional. Yes, I know,  in the end it's up to the parents to decide, but so is it even as to Rubella vaccine.
As soon as a word has left the lips, not even the fastest horse can catch up with it.

Offline VonStupp

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 346
    • Amazon Public Profile
  • Location: Breadbasket, USA
  • Currently Listening to:
    Backtracking through my catalog
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4654 on: July 22, 2021, 12:11:30 PM »
We haven't here had any serious side effects neither from Rubella vaccine nor from the RNA vaccines.

To me the important point is that corona vaccination of children is optional. Yes, I know,  in the end it's up to the parents to decide, but so is it even as to Rubella vaccine.

I am unsure how it works in other spots of the globe, but in the United States, students are required to have Polio, Diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus, rubella, measles, mumps, Chickenpox, and in some areas, Hepatitis B vaccines before entering public school. Where I live, there are religious exemptions for these vaccines, particularly from the Amish and Mennonites, but they tend to school their own children.

Now, some US universities are requiring Covid-19 vaccines to gain entrance. However, with the political nexus surrounding the vaccine, I don't see a nationwide mandate in our future for school-aged children. When they become available for youths, that is.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2021, 12:14:48 PM by VonStupp »
“All the good music has already been written by people with wigs and stuff.”

Offline Que

  • Global Moderator
  • *
  • Posts: 19192
  • Location: The Hague, Netherlands
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4655 on: July 22, 2021, 03:14:07 PM »



So, there we go. The Netherlands have turned deep red... Our southern brethren in Belgium turned orange. Luxemburg red as well.

And all the holiday destinations are warming up infection wise. With the French Côte d 'Azur, Croatia (Dalmatian Coast) and Greece joining in with Portugal, Spain, Malta and Cyprus. Somehow Italy is still managing to keep infections low.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/weekly-maps-coordinated-restriction-free-movement


Further spreading of the Delta variant:



Offline (: premont :)

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 9873
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4656 on: July 23, 2021, 03:27:40 AM »
When you say immune to the delta variant, what do you mean? Fully vaccinated people seem to be less likely to transmit a dose, to develop symptoms, to develop serious symptoms, to die. All at different rates.

I read the article a bit too fast. The estimate is that 86% of the population need to be fully vaccinated before we are near having herd immunity. And this is still many. However the expert thinks, that this will be achieved here in 2 - 3 months.
As soon as a word has left the lips, not even the fastest horse can catch up with it.

Offline Que

  • Global Moderator
  • *
  • Posts: 19192
  • Location: The Hague, Netherlands
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4657 on: July 23, 2021, 03:30:42 AM »
I read the article a bit too fast. The estimate is that 86% of the population need to be fully vaccinated before we are near having herd immunity. And this is still many. However the expert thinks, that this will be achieved here in 2 - 3 months.

Indications are that we might reach that mark in the Netherlands, as the number of vaccine "hesitants" is steadily declining.
We might end up in the upper 80s or just over the 90% mark.

Offline Mandryka

  • Veteran member
  • *
  • Posts: 16767
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4658 on: July 23, 2021, 04:56:36 AM »
I read the article a bit too fast. The estimate is that 86% of the population need to be fully vaccinated before we are near having herd immunity. And this is still many. However the expert thinks, that this will be achieved here in 2 - 3 months.



We are pretty well there, and all set to exceed it very soon. So if you want to know what the effect of 86% vaccinated is, you'll see it in the UK.

I've never studied epidemiology. My impression is that as a place approaches herd immunity the growth should slow down. All herd immunity means is that the reproduction rate is less than 1 without non-pharmaceutical interventions. When that happens, there will be a long slow decline in numbers.

« Last Edit: July 23, 2021, 04:59:22 AM by Mandryka »
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Offline krummholz

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 301
  • Vagn Holmboe (1909-1996)
  • Location: Central Vermont, US
Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4659 on: July 23, 2021, 04:56:51 AM »
That's NEVER going to happen! The vaccines wane, the vaccines are not 100% effective, the variants are easily transmitted, there are ethical problems about vaccinating children.  You've got to find a way of living with it, because it's here to stay.

I agree (mostly). But that doesn't mean we should lift all restrictions. In areas where herd immunity has already been reached (as is likely in my state), sure. Everywhere else, people should at the very least still be masking up.

As to vaccines waning: sure, boosters will be needed. But once herd immunity is reached, it can (hopefully) be maintained. The fact that vaccines are not 100% effective is not a barrier to herd immunity - they don't HAVE to be 100% effective.

Ethical problems with vaccinating children? I don't see any, and likely that will happen in most countries fairly soon.