Coronavirus thread

[prémont]

I think it's even less, less than 160.000, and only 1500 of them got the second shot of A-Z; 190 took the vaccine by their own choice, when that option came recently, to jump the queues for Pfizer and Moderna.

Well, I was too lazy to look the precise number up, since I considered it less important.

[MusicTurner]

Well, I was too lazy to look the precise number up, since I considered it less important.

Agree, they're not terribly important, but I felt surprised by those initial figures, and had to check ...

[prémont]

Well as I said here in a discussion a couple of weeks ago, I don't think that this is something vaccination can achieve. That's to say the vaccines cut transmission by X% and the R0 of delta is Y and 1- X% of Y is still greater than 1. I think the relevant numbers were X=75% and Y = 5 or 6.  I don't have a solution to the problems this brings with it -- except that the vaccines make the diseases mostly less severe -- but as you know, not for everyone, there are breakthroughs.

In Israel they have found that the Pfizer vaccine reduces clinical morbidity and mortality from the Delta variant with more than 90%, whereas the reduction of infections (the subclinical and asymtomatic included) is only 64%. If this is true and the "natural" R (without restrictions) is 6 for the Delta variant, we may reach an R = 2 but only if the entire population is vaccinated. So perhaps the virus can't be extinguished without some long-term restrictions.

Source (in Danish). Google translate will do the job.

https://medwatch.dk/samfund/article13111217.ece

[Que]

Less effective at what? I mean, what type of effectiveness counts for the sort of community level immunity we're seeking? If it's about reducing transmission and hospitalisation, then, well  . . . look at the AZ data again maybe.

British authorities keep hammering on the fact that AZ is (still) highly effective in preventing hospitalisation. And all indications are that it is effective in that way. And although that is very relevant for those who received the vaccine, provided they are fully vaccinated, it is an irrelevant factor in stopping the virus from spreading. What is relevant is whether someone is still being able to get infected in a way that the virus spreads and multiplies in the body and can be passed on to the next host.

Here in the Netherlands there have been several cases of reinfections of vaccinated, particularly in the case of the single-shot Janssen vaccine.

[Mandryka]

British authorities keep hammering on the fact that AZ is (still) highly effective in preventing hospitalisation. And all indications are that it is effective in that way. And although that is very relevant for those who received the vaccine, provided they are fully vaccinated, it is an irrelevant factor in stopping the virus from spreading. What is relevant is whether someone is still being able to get infected in a way that the virus spreads and multiplies in the body and can be passed on to the next host.

Here in the Netherlands there have been several cases of reinfections of vaccinated, particularly in the case of the single-shot Janssen vaccine.

Is it the case that the other vaccines are more effective at stopping spread? If so, that's very interesting.

[MusicTurner]

Survey results vary between studies, but Pfizer is slightly more efficient against Delta than A-Z, at least until now.

[Mandryka]

Survey results vary between studies, but Pfizer is slightly more efficient than A-Z, at least until now.

At reducing transmission? Can you provide a link?

[MusicTurner]

Here's one list of surveys, but the exact content, including the question of transmission, requires more reading (and, apparently, studies). Note the different results too.

https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-covid-vaccine-effectiveness-protection-pfizer-moderna-astrazeneca-2021-7?r=US&IR=T

[Que]

At reducing transmission? Can you provide a link?

From the Dutch "CDC":

Pfizer/BioNTech (Comirnaty) and Moderna vaccines
These vaccines are more than 90% effective in preventing disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. This means that in a group of vaccinated people, there will be 90% fewer people who get COVID-19 symptoms than in a group (of the same size) of unvaccinated people. The studies show that people who did contract COVID-19 even after vaccination became less seriously ill.

AstraZeneca vaccine
The vaccine is 60-80% effective in preventing disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. This means that in a group of vaccinated people, there will be 60-80% fewer people who get COVID-19 symptoms than in a group (of the same size) of unvaccinated people. The vaccine is especially effective in protecting against serious illness. Hospital admissions among vaccinated people are 90% lower than among unvaccinated people.

Janssen vaccine
The vaccine is 66% effective in preventing disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. This means that in a group of vaccinated people, there will be 66% fewer people who get COVID-19 symptoms than in a group (of the same size) of unvaccinated people. The vaccine also protects 85% of vaccinated people against serious illness from the coronavirus.

After you are vaccinated, you can still become infected with the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. The vaccination protects against illness caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.  Several studies have been published showing that vaccination also reduces the transmission of the virus from one person to another. The studies were limited in number and much of the evidence is indirect, but the results consistently point in the same direction: vaccination helps prevent infected people from infecting others.

https://www.rivm.nl/en/covid-19-vaccination/vaccines/efficacy-and-protection

[Mandryka]

I conclude that there is no evidence to suggest that AZ is less effective than Pfizer or whatever at reducing transmission or hospitalisation.

[Que]

I conclude that there is no evidence to suggest that AZ is less effective than Pfizer or whatever at reducing transmission or hospitalisation.

Oh, but there is "evidence", even though it is not definite and conclusive. At some point in time, when everything is extensively researched and analysed, done and dusted, there will be conclusive evidence on this issue (transmission, not hospitalisation)

If the norm of "conclusive" evidence had been applied in this pandemic, none of the vaccines would have been used as soon as they were. To me the assumption that if a vaccine is less effective in the sense that someone develeops symptoms because the virus is able to multiply in the body it also increases the chance that the virus is transmitted, seems entirely logical. And if there is research that indicates that this is indeed the case, that is good enough in this situation to base policy decisions on.

Why is the UK looking into the possibility of "boosting" the effectiveness of AZ with an additional shot of Pfizer?

[MusicTurner]

1) So far, there's just one study that a lot of sources quote about the effect regarding hospitalization. AZ seems to be around 90-92% preventive, Pfizer around 96-98% preventive.

"The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is 96% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses
the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is 92% effective against hospitalisation after 2 doses"

That's just one of many sources quoting that survey:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/vaccines-highly-effective-against-hospitalisation-from-delta-variant

One of the problems is of course that there can be differences in age and health between the compared, vaccinated groups.

2) Another study didn't have enough results yet for a final comparison of second shots, but said:
"AstraZeneca's Vaxzevria vaccine was 82% effective in preventing hospitalization or death from the Beta and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 virus variants. Using the same benchmark, its efficacy against the Alpha and Delta variants was 87% and 90%, respectively, 21 days after administering the first dose (...)

The BNT162b2 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech had a similar efficacy after 21 days. In terms of protecting against the Beta and Gamma variants, a single dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was 83% effective at protecting against hospitalization and death after 21 days. One dose of Moderna's mRNA-1273 vaccine was 94% effective at the same interval.
A second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine boosted its efficacy considerably. It was 98% effective at preventing hospitalization or death from the Beta and Gamma variants 14 days after the second dose. Its protection against other variants was similar following the second dose." (...)

There was, however, insufficient data to assess the post-second-dose efficacy of the AstraZeneca or Moderna vaccines (...)
https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/astrazeneca-pfizer-moderna-vaccines-fare-well-against-beta-gamma-and-delta-variants-in-study/

[Mandryka]

Why is the UK looking into the possibility of "boosting" the effectiveness of AZ with an additional shot of Pfizer?

I am sure I once read that there's some evidence that a cocktail produces better results -- something to do with t cells.

My point really in all this discussion was just this: if you want to see what 85% vaccination looks like, just watch the UK. We'll be there pretty soon. My feeling is that it's nothing like herd immunity, and whether it's a major step forward depends on how the population behaves. That's what the UK experiment is really -- to see how the population behaves without restrictions but with lots of public messages urging caution.

[Irons]

I am sure I once read that there's some evidence that a cocktail produces better results -- something to do with t cells.

My point really in all this discussion was just this: if you want to see what 85% vaccination looks like, just watch the UK. We'll be there pretty soon. My feeling is that it's nothing like herd immunity, and whether it's a major step forward depends on how the population behaves. That's what the UK experiment is really -- to see how the population behaves without restrictions but with lots of public messages urging caution.

Don't know about you but I am sick to the high teeth with Johnson/Whitty/Vallance briefings. Within reason let the British public get on with it! Most remain cautious for their own protection. There is a sense of freedom only because good advice is being followed, masks are still being worn and ineffective Covid inspired laws are ignored.

[Que]

Sure, we are all "sick" of it.... But the virus doesn't seem very interested in how we feel about it:

Covid: Delta variant spreads globally as cases soar (BBC)

[Mandryka]

Don't know about you but I am sick to the high teeth with Johnson/Whitty/Vallance briefings. Within reason let the British public get on with it! Most remain cautious for their own protection. There is a sense of freedom only because good advice is being followed, masks are still being worn and ineffective Covid inspired laws are ignored.

People aren't free independent rational agents like Descartes said. Their choices are governed by material demands and social pressures. They have to put bread on the table, the media is saying they're losers unless they earn big money, their employers encourage them to take risks for profit, ministers say that we mustn't be cowering cowards. And all the time it is becoming harder and harder to avoid catching covid.

My feeling is that covid is all over apart from details. Everyone is pushing for things to return to essentially how they were before. The COVID crisis will not lead to any sort of metamorphosis of society. The forces of parliamentary capitalism are stronger than the force of the epidemic. It's looking more and more like COVID is pretty minor in the grand scheme of history.

Oh and let me share some good news which may be relevant to all this. Flu and pneumonia deaths have been very significantly higher than covid deaths since at least March, and were 10 times higher in June, according to the ONS.

And age standardised mortality for the whole of 2021 is broadly the same as many recent years.

[Karl Henning]

Summer music festivals have returned — just in time for the latest coronavirus surge

[Irons]

Sure, we are all "sick" of it.... But the virus doesn't seem very interested in how we feel about it:

Covid: Delta variant spreads globally as cases soar (BBC)

Light at end of tunnel?  https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-infections-halve-in-a-week-b0lvjjtl2

[Que]

Light at end of tunnel?  https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-infections-halve-in-a-week-b0lvjjtl2

Infections down from the recent peak in the UK is certainly good news. There is a similar development in the Netherlands, after infections peaked following the premature lifting of restrictions - which were partly reinstated. But infections are  still going up again in several other European countries.

I expect that at the end of the summer we will have the situation reasonably under control in our European bubble. For how long, is anyone's guess. Perhaps our vaccine producers and health care systems will be able to keep up with the future new variants?

The US is struggling to convince a (too) large part of its population to get vaccinated:
Covid: Fauci says US heading in wrong direction as cases rise

In most of the rest of the world the fight against the pandemic is not going well:
Covid-19: India excess deaths cross four million, says study


This morning I received my 2nd Pfizer shot. After getting the injection, I went to the desk to get my registration papers in order.
I said to the volunteers of the Dutch Red Cross behind the desk, with some relief: "Well, my 2nd shot,  I'm done!"

You know what the reply was?   "Yes, indeed.....for now...."

[71 dB]

Coronavirus cases have skyrocketed in Finland since mid June due to delta variant which spreads a lot among 20-30 year olds.
Thanks to older people and risk groups being so well vaccinated hospitalizations/corona deaths have stayed pretty low.