Author Topic: Coronavirus thread  (Read 219064 times)

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Offline Irons

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4800 on: August 03, 2021, 06:00:52 AM »
Well, I'm pretty sure that admissions have peaked in the UK. What the consequences of the UK strategy will be for long covid and for mutations is anyone's guess of course. And it's anyone's guess what will happen next month when schools open and when the level of immunity in the population is different. But so far, the UK approach is looking good.

I wonder what the EU will do now, what do you think Que? Follow in our footsteps?

I find it ironic that soothsayers warned that Brexit would result in shortages and Supermarket shelves would be stripped bare with lorries lined up across the channel with their cargo going to waste. Didn't happen of course, only for the British Government with their "pinging" NHS app shooting themselves in the foot which resulted in shortages across the board. We can't even blame the dastardly EU. >:(
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Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4801 on: August 03, 2021, 10:06:53 AM »
Interesting.  Does that apply to all of the vaccines or just certain ones?  As far as I know, the J&J is only a one-shot vaccine.  I imagine that this is for Moderna and Pfizer then?

PD

It seems to be a Pfizer or Moderna, regardless of what vaccine you already had ... there are quite a lot of studies now telling of benefits of a 'cocktail' of vaccines.

Two very leading experts here in DK foretell a rising pandemic in the autumn, and likely further close downs/restrictions, because of new variants and cooler climate, and in spite of the relatively high level of vaccinations reached thus far  ???
« Last Edit: August 03, 2021, 10:09:33 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Pohjolas Daughter

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4802 on: August 03, 2021, 03:31:02 PM »
It seems to be a Pfizer or Moderna, regardless of what vaccine you already had ... there are quite a lot of studies now telling of benefits of a 'cocktail' of vaccines.

Two very leading experts here in DK foretell a rising pandemic in the autumn, and likely further close downs/restrictions, because of new variants and cooler climate, and in spite of the relatively high level of vaccinations reached thus far  ???
Yes, I had heard of the "cocktail approach".  I hope that it can help.

Scary thoughts re the fall.  Not even that late here in the US; earlier today I was reading about the rapid surge of Covid cases starting to inundate Florida hospitals in some areas.   :(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58077209

Best wishes,

PD

Offline Alek Hidell

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4803 on: August 03, 2021, 04:28:27 PM »
Alek, here in South Carolina the budget has a proviso that if any school district institutes a mask mandate they will immediately lose their funding.

Yeah, not very surprising coming from the birthplace of treason.
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Offline k a rl h e nn i ng

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4804 on: August 03, 2021, 04:29:36 PM »
Yes, I had heard of the "cocktail approach".  I hope that it can help.

Scary thoughts re the fall.  Not even that late here in the US; earlier today I was reading about the rapid surge of Covid cases starting to inundate Florida hospitals in some areas.   :(https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58077209

Best wishes,

PD

Yeah, not very surprising coming from the birthplace of treason.

The Trumpist death cult on parade.
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Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4805 on: August 04, 2021, 02:45:36 AM »
Antibody levels above 90% in every nation of the UK - ONS
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies


Can anyone who knows about science tell me what this means as far as the COVID crisis is concerned? What does it mean for incidence, for symptoms, that sort of stuff?
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Offline (: premont :)

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4806 on: August 04, 2021, 03:12:43 AM »
Antibody levels above 90% in every nation of the UK - ONS
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies


Can anyone who knows about science tell me what this means as far as the COVID crisis is concerned? What does it mean for incidence, for symptoms, that sort of stuff?

This may be of interest (if you haven't read it already):

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-94719-y

« Last Edit: August 04, 2021, 03:14:45 AM by (: premont :) »
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Offline (: premont :)

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4807 on: August 04, 2021, 03:47:48 AM »
That the actual vaccines to a large extent protect against serious symptomps, if one catches the covid19 but don't protect against infection as such to the same degree - at least what concerns the Delta variant -  means, that the Delta variant possibly can't be eradicated with the help of the existing vaccines, because there will still be a number of asymptomatic infections to maintain the virus, even if vaccinated people may be less contagious than unvaccinated people.. And this will also mean, that the risk of the emergence of vaccine resistant virus variants or more virulent variants still will be there.
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Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4808 on: August 05, 2021, 11:28:16 AM »
State scientific authorities here, the SSI, backing out on the question of attaining any complete herd immunity via vaccines: due to mutations, it will be unattainable, even with a vaccination level of 85% or more among the population. 100% coverage simply won't be possible, the vaccines aren't 100% protective, and there are imported cases all the time too.

Therefore, the aim must be to 1) reduce and halt the level of infections in society 2) reduce its dangerousness to health 3) think of it now rather as an ordinary flu, not that much of a disaster any longer; psychologically we're also much more used to flus as a re-occurring phenomenon 4) moreover: epidemics tend to die out after 2-5 years, an expert says. This might be the case here too.

1) - 2) has generally been attained here; the number of fatalities is now extremely low.

Supposedly this also means another argument for the impossibility of gaining any 'natural herd immunity'.

But generally, not very uplifting news for those of us who hope for a quick return to just the risk picture of 'the old days'.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2021, 11:41:33 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Florestan

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4809 on: August 06, 2021, 12:55:22 AM »
3) think of it now rather as an ordinary flu, not that much of a disaster any longer; psychologically we're also much more used to flus as a re-occurring phenomenon 4) moreover: epidemics tend to die out after 2-5 years, an expert says. This might be the case here too.

Those who dared to suggest that have been lambasted as ignorant and anti-science until quite recently. Today the stance is promoted by state scientific authorities. How very interesting.
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Offline Que

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4810 on: August 06, 2021, 01:05:36 AM »
Those who dared to suggest that have been lambasted as ignorant and anti-science until quite recently. Today the stance is promoted by state scientific authorities. How very interesting.

Though the future epidemiological situation of the virus might resemble that of influenza, it's health impact is definitely not.

The other day a met young, healthy, sporty woman in her late 20s who has had COVID, contracted at a party with friends.
Most of them got infected. Now she has trouble walking steadily, because her legs are shaking.... ???

Offline Florestan

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4811 on: August 06, 2021, 02:48:39 AM »
Though the future epidemiological situation of the virus might resemble that of influenza, it's health impact is definitely not.

The other day a met young, healthy, sporty woman in her late 20s who has had COVID, contracted at a party with friends.
Most of them got infected. Now she has trouble walking steadily, because her legs are shaking.... ???

According to the CDC website (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/symptoms.htm)

flu symptoms in adults may include severe weakness or unsteadiness.

And on the same anecdotal level, my father-in-law has two comorbidities, both life-threatening, both in advanced stages. He had asymptomatic Covid --- actually, had it not been for the antibodies test, we wouldn't even have known he had it.
“I love melody, I love to sing. I refuse to compose music only intended to be discovered and understood by future generations.” 

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Offline Spotted Horses

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4812 on: August 06, 2021, 02:57:41 AM »
The other day a met young, healthy, sporty woman in her late 20s who has had COVID, contracted at a party with friends.
Most of them got infected. Now she has trouble walking steadily, because her legs are shaking.... ???

How long ago did she contract it?

Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4813 on: August 06, 2021, 03:20:20 AM »
There was a lot of uncertainty and fear about this new disease and its effects when it came up, and we're making progress in analyzing it, but that work is still going on. I remember reading just a couple of months into the events, that some experts expected between 5 and 22 million fatalities from the virus, plus a breakdown in Western health sectors, and thinking that it seemed astronomical, compared to the rather minute, actual numbers back then. Yet we're now at 4.3 mio fatalities world-wide. This in the light of the vaccine work that has been unexpectedly quick, and is starting to reduce the number of dead. The Spanish Flu, occurring when science was poorer, cost 50 mio dead, or 10% of the infected. There's no doubt that political or scientific apathy towards Corona would have resulted in many more fatalities and health sector problems.

Obviously, some countries and regions have fared better than others in dealing with the virus, including treatment options. Some have been severely hit, and their health sectors overburdened. A good deal are able to suggest that the worst as regards fatalities is probably over, provided that mutations don't get worse. But also, investigations for example concerning the apparently low fatality rates in Africa now suggest that they're probably the result of a poor health sector and registration in many places, the actual numbers being much higher. The same was probably the case for Russia too, etc.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2021, 03:29:00 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Que

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4814 on: August 06, 2021, 04:21:39 AM »
How long ago did she contract it?

She fell ill a month ago.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2021, 04:29:56 AM by Que »

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4815 on: August 06, 2021, 04:40:59 AM »
Though the future epidemiological situation of the virus might resemble that of influenza, it's health impact is definitely not.

The other day a met young, healthy, sporty woman in her late 20s who has had COVID, contracted at a party with friends.
Most of them got infected. Now she has trouble walking steadily, because her legs are shaking.... ???

Horrible experience for her. I think this sort of thing can happen with all viral diseases, including flu and gastroentgeritis (which I think is a better analogy to covid than flu in fact, because of IBS being a long form.)

Whether long forms are more likely or more serious with covid, and whether the vaccines help, is anyone's guess.


(Que -- do you think there's any chance that Holland will let me in without quarantine? I see that France will now, but I really want to go to Holland! Josquin calls.)
« Last Edit: August 06, 2021, 04:42:33 AM by Mandryka »
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Offline Spotted Horses

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4816 on: August 06, 2021, 07:14:36 AM »
Horrible experience for her. I think this sort of thing can happen with all viral diseases, including flu and gastroentgeritis (which I think is a better analogy to covid than flu in fact, because of IBS being a long form.)

Whether long forms are more likely or more serious with covid, and whether the vaccines help, is anyone's guess.

In a typical year flu kills somewhere around 30,000 people in the U.S., with no social distancing measures and a generally lax attitude about coming to work when sick, etc. Covid killed about 500,000 people in the U.S. in a year, with unprecentended (but inconsistent) social distancing and protective measures. There is no comparison. And "long covid" in people who had initially mild or asymptomatic cases is a big unknown. How long is long? A year, or forever?

It's going to become endemic. The best hope is that a fully vaccinated population benefit from dramatically reduced incidence of severe disease, and that the vaccine also suppresses "long covid." That's unknown. (I've seen some reports that people with long covid felt improvement after being vaccinated, but that is anecdotal and doesn't particularly make sense. If covid is already in their system the vaccine is supposedly superfluous.)

The valid issue about the short timeline of vaccine testing is not safety, but the fact that the long term efficiency of the vaccine is almost completely unknown. Given the severity of the public health issue, going ahead with a largely vaccine which had only been tested for shot-term effectiveness was justified.

I think we need a world with a lot less travel. Easy for me to say, since I will never travel again, myself, Covid or no Covid.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2021, 07:36:21 AM by Spotted Horses »

Offline Mandryka

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4817 on: August 06, 2021, 08:39:59 AM »
In a typical year flu kills somewhere around 30,000 people in the U.S., with no social distancing measures and a generally lax attitude about coming to work when sick, etc. Covid killed about 500,000 people in the U.S. in a year, with unprecentended (but inconsistent) social distancing and protective measures.

Sure, but my thinking whether in a vaccinated population COVID and flu are comparable.




I think we need a world with a lot less travel. Easy for me to say, since I will never travel again, myself, Covid or no Covid.

A lot depends here on what travel means. You're in the US -- do we need a world where people can't travel so freely from New York to LA? Or just a world where people can't travel so freely from Madrid to Athens, or Egypt to Capetown?

« Last Edit: August 06, 2021, 08:42:15 AM by Mandryka »
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Offline MusicTurner

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4818 on: August 06, 2021, 08:46:29 AM »
In this ever-evolving subject, CNN now tells that US intelligence has obtained samples of various virus samples from the Wuhan laboratory, trying to establish the origins of it, and including whether the virus could actually be a laboratory or scientific experiment that got out of hand.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/05/politics/covid-origins-genetic-data-wuhan-lab/index.html
« Last Edit: August 06, 2021, 08:49:23 AM by MusicTurner »

Offline Florestan

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Re: Coronavirus thread
« Reply #4819 on: August 06, 2021, 08:51:58 AM »
The Black Death occured when travel as we know it was virtually unkown. It took the lives of at least 75 mio people, some estimates even giving the frightening number of 200 mio people --- thus making Covid-19 look like a stroll in the park.

The "Spanish" Flu --- btw, if a flu that didn't originated in Spain is called Spanish, what's wrong with calling Chinese a "flu" which did originate in China? --- claimed the lives of between 17 and 100 mio lives --- thus making Covid-19 look like a stroll in the park.

I think we need a world with a lot less irrational fear of death.
“I love melody, I love to sing. I refuse to compose music only intended to be discovered and understood by future generations.” 

--- Carlos Guastavino (1912-2000), Argentinian composer