Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

Here in the USA I've seen people remove masks even directly underneath signs instructing them to wear masks, with authority figures not caring (except again in one case, in a library; the librarian on duty did ask people to wear masks if they weren't, and they complied while within her line of sight, but probably not otherwise).

That suggests to me that mask wearing is pretty unlikely to ever be an effective non pharmaceutical intervention in the USA. If there's a lot of resistance it's just never going to do much good. (Bit like illegal weed!)

As far as I know the impact of all NPIs is very poorly understood. For example, what was the impact of closing infant and junior schools on the epidemic?  I just don't think anyone can answer that except by saying not very helpful things like "less of an impact than closing senior schools." What we can say for sure is that closing infant and junior schools had a very negative effect on the kids!

Same for mask wearing in different contexts - when I was last in Nice it was compulsory to wear masks outside, on the Promenade des Anglais, with the fucking mistral blowing. I must say, I think it bodes ill for the future cooperation of the people when the politicians impose rules which obviously don't make much sense.

[Holden]

In relation to the vaccine passport thing: in New Zealand, I was asked for proof of vaccination several times, despite it not being legally necessary (& the rate of vaccination still being quite low at the time), including when travelling. At the moment, I'm overseas in a city with a well-publicised vaccine mandate, including a vaccine passport app and signs outside most establishments announcing that proof of vaccination will be necessary to enter. I've only once been asked to actually present proof of vaccination, didn't have it with me on that occasion, and was waved through anyway with the person (a cashier) saying "sorry, we just gotta ask everyone that".

In New Zealand almost everyone wore masks when required to. Here in the USA I've seen people remove masks even directly underneath signs instructing them to wear masks, with authority figures not caring (except again in one case, in a library; the librarian on duty did ask people to wear masks if they weren't, and they complied while within her line of sight, but probably not otherwise).

I'm not sure what this means or whether it is related to the very high COVID-19 death toll in the USA compared to other countries where mask-wearing is more socially acceptable and vaccine passports are more strictly enforced. This death toll may after all be more related to problems with the American health system, or other factors; I'd be curious to know what mask use, vaccine restrictions, etc are like in other countries that continue to be severely affected (Mexico, Russia, Iran) or countries that had very severe outbreaks which have been effectively reduced in severity (India, Indonesia, Peru).

In Australia, yes you can ask someone if they've been vaccinated but unless you hold special powers that person is not required to confirm it. I suspect that NZ would be the same.

Which brings me onto mask wearing. Please read this carefully. Mask rules in QLD were changed last Friday. The new rules states that if you are indoors and are standing you must wear a mask. However, the simple act of sitting down means that you don't have to. This could suggest a number of things:

Covid only infects people who are standing
If you are sitting down you are safe from Covid
I'm wondering if the QLD govt has discovered that Covid is anally transmitted and haven't told us.

Any ideas as to why this would be effective?

[SimonNZ]

My first guess would be that businesses you'd want to sit down in involve eating and drinking.

[Holden]

My first guess would be that businesses you'd want to sit down in involve eating and drinking.

...but this is all encompassing and includes the likes of schools, other workplaces, etc.

[Mandryka]

...but this is all encompassing and includes the likes of schools, other workplaces, etc.

The idea is this: the kids in school can learn more or less while wearing a mask, they're leaning is probably impeded but not prevented. Similarly for workers: they can continue to work masked, maybe not as well as before but they can do something. But the punters in a restaurant can't eat at all with a mask. So enforcing mask wearing in restaurants is tantamount to closing them down, which has very undesirable economic consequences.

The decisions about how to manage an epidemic are not purely health decisions, because the problem concerns a society - the problem is about controlling the impact of the virus on society.

[MusicTurner]

Still a good development here in DK, with a positive percentage below 1% in tests, typically 250 - 500 cases per day, and a fall in the number of hospitalizations, from about 140 to now 96, within a few weeks, and in spite of the general opening up. Today's calculated R number is again 0.7

Experts find it puzzling, and are ascribing it to the vaccination rate, but they still warn for a later 4th and 5th wave.

A slight increase here in DK in the last 3 days, and sadly, experts are predicting between 1500 and 4000 daily cases later in the late autumn/winter, due to a lot of factors. Today the calculated R number went up from 0.7 to 1.1.

As it has been described, the virus is expected to survive among non-vaccinated and young people/children, in spite of the high vaccine rate (now 75.9 % of the total population of all ages), and spread from there. I hope these predictions will be proven wrong, but they are probably correct.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

A slight increase here in DK in the last 3 days, and sadly, experts are predicting between 1500 and 4000 daily cases later in the late autumn/winter, due to a lot of factors. Today the calculated R number went up from 0.7 to 1.1.

As it has been described, the virus is expected to survive among non-vaccinated and young people/children, in spite of the high vaccine rate, and spread from there. I hope these predictions will be proven wrong, but they are probably correct.

Eek!  And I hope that their predictions are wrong.

PD

[MusicTurner]

Thank you - yes, hopefully there'll be more positive developments generally.

[amw]

My first guess would be that businesses you'd want to sit down in involve eating and drinking.

I always thought it was very polite of SARS-CoV-2 to not infect people while they're eating or drinking, thereby allowing restaurants to remain open (even if only with outdoor seating). Very sportsmanlike, really.

(I'm sure that measures such as masks are effective at preventing transmission of the virus under laboratory conditions. Under real-world conditions, most people do not wear masks correctly, or choose masks that don't adequately block aerosol transmission, or both; people remove their masks to eat and drink, or whenever they believe they have sufficient distance from other people; etc. Given that virions can survive for ~72 hours on many surfaces, this sense of security is obviously false.)

[krummholz]

I always thought it was very polite of SARS-CoV-2 to not infect people while they're eating or drinking, thereby allowing restaurants to remain open (even if only with outdoor seating). Very sportsmanlike, really.

(I'm sure that measures such as masks are effective at preventing transmission of the virus under laboratory conditions. Under real-world conditions, most people do not wear masks correctly, or choose masks that don't adequately block aerosol transmission, or both; people remove their masks to eat and drink, or whenever they believe they have sufficient distance from other people; etc. Given that virions can survive for ~72 hours on many surfaces, this sense of security is obviously false.)

I might be mistaken, but I believe that although SOME virions can surface on surfaces for up to 72 hours, the number is not considered sufficient to infect anyone after a few hours, and I think it's been demonstrated that fomites are not a significant mode of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Aerosols, on the other hand, are to my knowledge the single most important mode of transmission for the virus, even more important than large droplets.

Unfortunately, I agree that in the real world even well-made masks are not as effective as they could be because of improper wearing. I am CONSTANTLY reminding my students to cover their noses. As to taking masks off in restaurants, well yes, you basically have to, and that's why I don't eat at sit-down restaurants except outdoors.

[Mandryka]

I might be mistaken, but I believe that although SOME virions can surface on surfaces for up to 72 hours, the number is not considered sufficient to infect anyone after a few hours, and I think it's been demonstrated that fomites are not a significant mode of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Aerosols, on the other hand, are to my knowledge the single most important mode of transmission for the virus, even more important than large droplets.

Unfortunately, I agree that in the real world even well-made masks are not as effective as they could be because of improper wearing. I am CONSTANTLY reminding my students to cover their noses. As to taking masks off in restaurants, well yes, you basically have to, and that's why I don't eat at sit-down restaurants except outdoors.

Well, the fact that you're have to remind your class to cover their noses all the time suggests to me that people in your part of the world don't like wearing them over the nose. And it's going to be very hard, maybe impossible,  to enforce!

I believe you are right to say that aerosol transmission is much more significant than transmission via fomites. But it is expensive to  implement good ventilation in the workplace and in education. That's why in the UK at least the government have chosen to underplay aerosol.

[Holden]

....and there are people like me who are genuinely mask exempt for medical reasons. I purposely didn't apply for this exemption until I was fully vaccinated and this exacerbated my health issues. I don't wear a mask anywhere but also consider myself very low risk to to others and attempt to socially distance wherever possible.

[krummholz]

Well, the fact that you're have to remind your class to cover their noses all the time suggests to me that people in your part of the world don't like wearing them over the nose. And it's going to be very hard, maybe impossible,  to enforce!

I think a big part of the problem is that the masks issued are one size fits all, and the truth is they often don't fit very well. In many cases the standard issue mask is too small for the student's face. But you are right that they don't particularly like wearing them, either, and it's going to be impossible to enforce when the University's mask mandate is lifted (if in fact it is, since we - faculty - are strongly opposed and are putting intense pressure on the administration via the faculty senate to keep the mandate in place).

I believe you are right to say that aerosol transmission is much more significant than transmission via fomites. But it is expensive to  implement good ventilation in the workplace and in education. That's why in the UK at least the government have chosen to underplay aerosol.

It's expensive yes, and as a result, very little has been done to improve ventilation here. I'm not sure what you mean by "underplay aerosol". Are they actually saying that aerosols are a relatively minor factor in transmission?

[Karl Henning]

Well, the fact that you're have to remind your class to cover their noses all the time suggests to me that people in your part of the world don't like wearing them over the nose. And it's going to be very hard, maybe impossible,  to enforce!

I believe you are right to say that aerosol transmission is much more significant than transmission via fomites. But it is expensive to  implement good ventilation in the workplace and in education. That's why in the UK at least the government have chosen to underplay aerosol.

Of course, a fact remains a fact, even if a governing agency elects to ignore or disregard it....

[Karl Henning]

Someone who wears a mask, but doesn't wear it over the nose, is not wearing the mask.

[Mandryka]

Are they actually saying that aerosols are a relatively minor factor in transmission?

Well here in the UK they're not doing much to improve the air quality in schools.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I think a big part of the problem is that the masks issued are one size fits all, and the truth is they often don't fit very well. In many cases the standard issue mask is too small for the student's face. But you are right that they don't particularly like wearing them, either, and it's going to be impossible to enforce when the University's mask mandate is lifted (if in fact it is, since we - faculty - are strongly opposed and are putting intense pressure on the administration via the faculty senate to keep the mandate in place).

It's expensive yes, and as a result, very little has been done to improve ventilation here. I'm not sure what you mean by "underplay aerosol". Are they actually saying that aerosols are a relatively minor factor in transmission?

Are the students given the option of wearing cloth masks or must wear the typical white or blue masks that one can buy at a pharmacy/grocery store?  I have seen cloth masks sold at a pharmacy that came in different sizes; I did buy a pack of three but 99% of the time, I wear your basic pharmacy-type mask.  Alas, the cloth ones don't have that metal strip which helps to make it conform better to your nose and hence face overall.

PD

[DavidW]

In many cases the standard issue mask is too small for the student's face.

Why would a standard adult mask be too small for a child?  Don't you mean too large?  You do know that there are also masks made for children right?

[krummholz]

Are the students given the option of wearing cloth masks or must wear the typical white or blue masks that one can buy at a pharmacy/grocery store?  I have seen cloth masks sold at a pharmacy that came in different sizes; I did buy a pack of three but 99% of the time, I wear your basic pharmacy-type mask.  Alas, the cloth ones don't have that metal strip which helps to make it conform better to your nose and hence face overall.

PD

We're a military college, so the students in the Corps of Cadets are given a standard-issue black mask, all the same size, and they don't have the option of wearing anything else. Between a quarter and a third of the students are "civilian", so they don't have that excuse... but it is the Corps students who have by far the most trouble with their masks.

[krummholz]

Why would a standard adult mask be too small for a child?  Don't you mean too large?  You do know that there are also masks made for children right?

They are adults, not children.. young adults, but adults nonetheless. And I have two of the standard-issue masks since I am uniformed faculty (though I wear my own KN-95s these days)... and they're a little too small for me as well.