Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

The initial, overall positive estimate here by several experts in DK is that for example mRNA-vaccines can be adjusted to the new variant quite easily, should it be necessary. But it might take some months to work this out, maybe from say 4 months or half a year, including testing and approval. Production capacity won't be a problem.

Here, vaccinating children aged 5-11 years was officially approved and recommended today, following EMA decisions earlier.

Pfizer say 100 days for initial samples of an adjusted vaccine, whatever that may mean. 100 days is 100 days too long.


https://twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1464251996630831109?s=20

[Karl Henning]

The initial, overall positive estimate here by several experts in DK is that for example mRNA-vaccines can be adjusted to the new variant quite easily, should it be necessary. But it might take some months to work this out, maybe from say 4 months or half a year, including testing and approval. Production capacity won't be a problem.

Here, vaccinating children aged 5-11 years was officially approved and recommended today, following EMA decisions earlier.

All good news.

[Que]

New Covid variant: How worried should we be?

What I get from it is that there is a real possibility that we're in big trouble, but hopefully not...

[Todd]

New Covid variant: How worried should we be?

What I get from it is that there is a real possibility that we're in big trouble, but hopefully not...

Now is the time to panic. 

[Karl Henning]

Meryl Kornfield, Lateshia Beachum and Adela Suliman Yesterday at 2:23 p.m. EST| Updated today at 10:01 a.m. EST:

Even if the variant limits the effectiveness of vaccines, it's unlikely to completely subvert the protections that vaccines provide, experts say.

"My expectation would be that the mutations in this variant are not going to ablate or completely escape that type of antibody neutralization" from vaccines or prior infection, Bloom [Jesse Bloom, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center who has conducted mutational scanning experiments for the B.1.1.529 variant] said.

"Regardless of whether or not this new variant ends up spreading, I would suggest that people do what they can to minimize their chances of getting infected with SARS-CoV-2," Bloom added, referring to the virus by its technical name. "There are certain obvious things you can do: Get vaccinated, get a booster vaccination, wear a mask."

Though the sample size is still small, Sanne said physicians have seen a higher rate of breakthrough infections among those previously vaccinated in South Africa. But he added that initial data indicates the vaccines are still proving effective, with the majority of hospitalizations being among those who hadn't gotten the shot.

"We have every indication that the vaccines are still effective in preventing severe disease and/or complications," he said. "The data, however, is small and early."

Meanwhile, vaccine-makers, which have done preliminary research using vaccines with formulas tailored for other variants, are working to understand how well their vaccines can counter omicron.

"In the event that [a] vaccine-escape variant emerges, Pfizer and BioNTech expect to be able to develop and produce a tailor-made vaccine against that variant in approximately 100 days, subject to regulatory approval," a Pfizer spokesperson said in a statement.

Given the spread of B.1.1.529 in South Africa, several experts have pointed to the critical need to vaccinate underserved countries to bolster the world's protection from future, more-evasive variants.

[Mandryka]

Some reasons not to panic

1. We're getting lots of reports now from European countries about this variant being detected, but as far as I can see none so far have reported a case of anyone with serious symptoms. That bodes very well. Especially if it's true (as seems likely to me) that it has been circulating for weeks.

2. I read somewhere that in SA the serious omega cases are mostly either wholly are partially unvaccinated.

[amw]

There were also very few coronavirus cases in South Africa at the time B.1.1.529 began to predominate over Delta; and while its prevalence has increased massively in terms of a percentage of that very low threshold, it's still only a very tiny fraction of the previous surges in Delta, Beta and wild-type SCV2 that caused the majority of deaths and hospitalisations.

In fact I'm not actually aware of any severe or critical cases of COVID-19 resulting from this variant, and the initial data suggesting that it's more transmissible than Delta is a pretty good indication that it's also less deadly. There's an inverse relationship between the two in general (a deadlier virus is harder to transmit because it kills a greater percentage of its hosts) and natural selection, in general, tends to select for viral mutations that are less deadly and therefore more efficient at spreading among hosts, especially as viruses become endemic within a population. (It's estimated that ~72% of the population of South Africa has previously been infected with SCV2.) The virus's "goal", such as it is, is to pass on its genome; it doesn't care about you as a multicellular organism or know you exist, it just "wants" your cells to produce more of itself.

[Karl Henning]

There were also very few coronavirus cases in South Africa at the time B.1.1.529 began to predominate over Delta; and while its prevalence has increased massively in terms of a percentage of that very low threshold, it's still only a very tiny fraction of the previous surges in Delta, Beta and wild-type SCV2 that caused the majority of deaths and hospitalisations.

In fact I'm not actually aware of any severe or critical cases of COVID-19 resulting from this variant, and the initial data suggesting that it's more transmissible than Delta is a pretty good indication that it's also less deadly. There's an inverse relationship between the two in general (a deadlier virus is harder to transmit because it kills a greater percentage of its hosts) and natural selection, in general, tends to select for viral mutations that are less deadly and therefore more efficient at spreading among hosts, especially as viruses become endemic within a population. (It's estimated that ~72% of the population of South Africa has previously been infected with SCV2.) The virus's "goal", such as it is, is to pass on its genome; it doesn't care about you as a multicellular organism or know you exist, it just "wants" your cells to produce more of itself.

Good.

[Florestan]

Meryl Kornfield, Lateshia Beachum and Adela Suliman Yesterday at 2:23 p.m. EST| Updated today at 10:01 a.m. EST:

Even if the variant limits the effectiveness of vaccines, it's unlikely to completely subvert the protections that vaccines provide, experts say.

Why, of course! No amount of empirical facts and scientific data will ever make the experts question one iota of the vaccine-only dogma. The experts are experts and everybody else who is not an expert should listen to the experts --- and anyone who is not an expert yet dare to not listen to the experts should either shut up or be silenced.

The protection works for the protected but the unprotected pose a danger to the protected and therefore the protected must be protected from the unprotected by forcing upon the unprotected the protection that doesn't protect the protected. Got it? Me neither.

[drogulus]

There's an inverse relationship between the two in general (a deadlier virus is harder to transmit because it kills a greater percentage of its hosts) and natural selection, in general, tends to select for viral mutations that are less deadly and therefore more efficient at spreading among hosts, especially as viruses become endemic within a population.

     Last year I hypothesized that the virus would evolve towards less lethality for this reason. The best "strategy" for a virus is to make the host sick enough to cough and sneeze on others while not dying soon or at all. Indeed, most viruses don't make people sick at all. These are the ones everyone has and takes no notice of. Only a stupid virus kills hosts.

Why, of course! No amount of empirical facts and scientific data will ever make the experts question one iota of the vaccine-only dogma. The experts are experts and everybody else who is not an expert should listen to the experts --- and anyone who is not an expert yet dare to not listen to the experts should either shut up or be silenced.

The protection works for the protected but the unprotected pose a danger to the protected and therefore the protected must be protected from the unprotected by forcing upon the unprotected the protection that doesn't protect the protected. Got it? Me neither.

     You should have put the empty space first and quit while you were only slightly behind. There is no vaccine-only dogma anywhere. Recommendations that people get shots are as well founded as for other viruses. Of course one might argue on typically absolutist grounds that there is no such thing as public health and since Bog don't care whether people die or live, people shouldn't care about their own fate or that of their families, friends and neighbors either. Humans can never be any better than their most sadistic fantasies. How dare we try to survive the infinite wrath of your sky buddy!

[MusicTurner]

Yes, vaccine effects have been pretty solid.

https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1463119478099693571?s=20

[Karl Henning]

     Last year I hypothesized that the virus would evolve towards less lethality for this reason. The best "strategy" for a virus is to make the host sick enough to cough and sneeze on others while not dying soon or at all. Indeed, most viruses don't make people sick at all. These are the ones everyone has and takes no notice of. Only a stupid virus kills hosts.

     You should have put the empty space first and quit while you were only slightly behind. There is no vaccine-only dogma anywhere. Recommendations that people get shots are as well founded as for other viruses. Of course one might argue on typically absolutist grounds that there is no such thing as public health and since Bog don't care whether people die or live, people shouldn't care about their own fate or that of their families, friends and neighbors either. Humans can never be any better than their most sadistic fantasies. How dare we try to survive the infinite wrath of your sky buddy!

Go ahead: ask him just where this alleged vaccine-only dogma is in force. The latest of Andrei's strawmen.

[Karl Henning]

Somebody buy Andrei another bottle.

The protection works for the protected but the unprotected pose a danger to the protected and therefore the protected must be protected from the unprotected by forcing upon the unprotected the protection that doesn't protect the protected. And as for the unprotected, everybody dies anyway!

[Florestan]

Go ahead: ask him just where this alleged vaccine-only dogma is in force. The latest of Andrei's strawmen.

Austria is to become the first European country to make vaccinations against Covid 19 mandatory, and will go into its fourth nationwide lockdown for at least 10 days from Monday, the chancellor, Alexander Schallenberg, has announced.

The government said it was preparing the legal groundwork for a general vaccine mandate to come into effect from 1 February, with exemptions for those unable to receive a jab on medical grounds.

The age from which people will be required to be vaccinated has not yet been determined, the government said.

Those refusing to be vaccinated are likely to face administrative fines, which can be converted into a prison sentence if the fine cannot be recovered.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/19/austria-plans-compulsory-covid-vaccination-for-all

[drogulus]

Yes, vaccine effects have been pretty solid:

https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1463119478099693571?s=20

      It's as though questions of personal choice and public safety had never arisen at any time in the era of scientific public health measures. There has been no influenza, polio, measles and of course children have never ever been vaccinated as a requirement to attend school. Never happened! No issue was raised. Every time around the goldfish bowl is a new experience and nobody knows nothing, nobody learns anything.

[Florestan]

Somebody buy Andrei another bottle.

Oh yes, guys, please keep them coming. Cabernet Sauvignon, if you please.

[Florestan]

children have never ever been vaccinated as a requirement to attend school. Never happened!

Indeed. Never happened in Romania. Never. Ever. Period. Not. Even. During. Communist. Regime. 1947-1989. Never. Ever. Period.

As of late. I've seen many journalists and intellectuals on Romanian TV channels asking "Are we smarter than the Western countries in our refusal to follow their way, lockdowns, Covid Pass and all? Why don't we just follow suit?" --- and my answer is "Yes, we are! We don't follow suit because we have been following suit for 50 years and it resulted in disaster."

Romania today is a much freer country than many in the EU, especially Western EU, with respect to freedom of movement, assembly, work and free speech --- and I pray God it will remain so.

Now, Karl, please pass me the bottle --- and here's to you!

[MusicTurner]

There were also very few coronavirus cases in South Africa at the time B.1.1.529 began to predominate over Delta; and while its prevalence has increased massively in terms of a percentage of that very low threshold, it's still only a very tiny fraction of the previous surges in Delta, Beta and wild-type SCV2 that caused the majority of deaths and hospitalisations.

In fact I'm not actually aware of any severe or critical cases of COVID-19 resulting from this variant, and the initial data suggesting that it's more transmissible than Delta is a pretty good indication that it's also less deadly. There's an inverse relationship between the two in general (a deadlier virus is harder to transmit because it kills a greater percentage of its hosts) and natural selection, in general, tends to select for viral mutations that are less deadly and therefore more efficient at spreading among hosts, especially as viruses become endemic within a population. (It's estimated that ~72% of the population of South Africa has previously been infected with SCV2.) The virus's "goal", such as it is, is to pass on its genome; it doesn't care about you as a multicellular organism or know you exist, it just "wants" your cells to produce more of itself.

Interesting. The first reports from South Africa, a doctor who's been treating 25 of these patients, are indeed that it has generally milder, but also different symptoms.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/south-african-doctor-raised-alarm-omicron-variant-says-symptoms/

[drogulus]

In Romania, the first dose of the monovalent measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) was introduced in 1979 for children aged 9–11 months, and the second dose (MCV2) was implemented in 1994 for children 6–7 years of age. The replacement of the first dose by the trivalent measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine occurred in 2004, with the recommended age of inoculation being 12–15 months. The second dose was scheduled as part of school-based vaccination programs, and was aimed at children aged 6–7 years. In 2015, the standard age for inoculation with the second dose of the MMR vaccine was lowered to 5 years of age and the vaccine's delivery was moved to health centers instead of schools.

After the introduction of the measles-containing vaccine in 1979, the dynamics of the disease changed, exhibiting a decreased annual incidence and longer inter-epidemic periods. As opposed to the pre-vaccine era, when the average yearly incidence (per 100,000 population) exceeded 500, the magnitude of this value was almost 10 times lower from 1980 to 1999.

     Link

[Mandryka]

There's an inverse relationship between the two in general (a deadlier virus is harder to transmit because it kills a greater percentage of its hosts) and natural selection, . . .

In the long term there is a tendency for the variants to be less lethal. However for all we know omicron may be more deadly than delta, and I don't see that you can say that it is less likely to be more deadly. But to some extent in the first world the issue is not how lethal the variant is, it is how well the variant can break through immunity already acquired - especially through vaccination. In less developed countries the situation is different of course.