Coronavirus thread

[Florestan]

Well yes, I think so, unless some sort of very serious lockdown is put into place, everyone. It's doubling every too days; the vaccines do not prevent people catching it so the whole population is susceptible;  it seems very transmissible so you don't need a big dose to get it.

Actually, how many infections have been recorded in London until today?

[Mandryka]

Actually, how many infections have been recorded in London until today?

Yesterday there were 20K positive test results and over half of all cases are omicron we're told. Let's be generous and assume that the number of cases is 2x the number of positive tests - more. So that's 20K omicrons a day. The hard part of making a model is that the proportion of omicron cases is growing rapidly - delta is being ousted. And - and this is the real interesting thing - there may be a reduction in R as cases grow because people become more cautious, we're already seeing parties being cancelled, the restaurant industry is up in arms asking for support from the government.

Pop London about 7M I think. It won't take long to get to 7M if it continues to grow like it is. Just think - 20K, 40K, 80K, 150k, 300K, 600K, 1M, 2M, 4M  - that's nine doubling periods, 18 days.

[Florestan]

Yesterday there were 20K positive test results and over half of all cases are omicron we're told. Let's be generous and assume that the number of cases is 2x the number of positive tests - more. So that's 20K omicrons a day. The hard part of making a model is that the proportion of omicron cases is growing rapidly - delta is being ousted. And - and this is the real interesting thing - there may be a reduction in R as cases grow because people become more cautious, we're already seeing parties being cancelled, the restaurant industry is up in arms asking for support from the government.

Pop London about 7M I think. It won't take long to get to 7M if it continues to grow like it is.

Thanks. And how many hospitalisations?

[Mandryka]

Thanks. And how many hospitalisations?

Omicron hospitalisations in London? I don't know, not many. But clearly if the function from prevalence to hospitalisation is like delta, or even half as bad as delta, it's a problem because they all come at once!

Add to the equation my biggest fear - the 2022 flu epidemic.

[Florestan]

Omicron hospitalisations in London? I don't know, not many. But clearly if the function from prevalence to hospitalisation is like delta, or even half as bad as delta, it's a problem because they all come at once!

What is the maximum number of hospitalisations that the London hospitals can afford?

Add to the equation my biggest fear - the 2022 flu epidemic.

Why are you more scared by flu than by omicron?

[Mandryka]

What is the maximum number of hospitalisations that the London hospitals can afford?

I don't know. The answer is complicated by the fact that the hospital staff will be catching omicron and getting too ill to go to work.

Why are you more scared by flu than by omicron?

If the flu epidemic is bad that will be a major burden on the hospital system in itself, coming at precisely the time when the system is having to deal with omicron. The flu epidemic here is typically Jan/Feb I think.

There's another aspect to all this. The people who won't receive support over the next three months because they're not an emergency. The people who are in the first stages of a cancer or a life effecting chronic disease, the people crippled by skeletal problems, the accident victims etc.  They will add to an already large backlog, a long long waiting list to see a hospital doctor. That is one of the major long term challenges of this whole pandemic I think, and it will need a political solution. 

[Florestan]

I don't know. The answer is complicated by the fact that the hospital staff will be catching omicron and getting too ill to go to work.

If the flu epidemic is bad that will be a major burden on the hospital system in itself, coming at precisely the time when the system is having to deal with omicron. The flu epidemic here is typically Jan/Feb I think.

What was the situation in this respect in Jan 2020 / Feb 2021? Was there a shortage of doctors due to catching Covid themselves? Did the flu add to the hopitalisation burden?

There's another aspect to all this. The people who won't receive support over the next three months because they're not an emergency. The people who are in the first stages of a cancer or a life effecting chronic disease, the people crippled by skeletal problems, the accident victims etc.  They will add to an already large backlog, a long long waiting list to see a hospital doctor. That is one of the major long term challenges of this whole pandemic I think, and it will need a political solution.

And that solution is...?

[steve ridgway]

If you must have the facts then go to the Covid19 data websites that nearly all governments run and make up your own mind rather than have some media person who hasn't do it for you.

LOL yes your government will know the full facts and is only interested in your well being, or your TV may offer a fact checking service or panel of authorities to answer your questions like the BBC does, along with heart rending stories from people whose loved ones fell prey to the evil conspiracy theorists on social media and lost their minds. They've panicked the majority here anyway, saying they're not stopping anyone going anywhere but people really ought to think very carefully before they take such an enormous risk.

[Mandryka]

What was the situation in this respect in Jan 2020 / Feb 2021? Was there a shortage of doctors due to catching Covid themselves? Did the flu add to the hopitalisation burden?

No, there was no flu epidemic in 2021 because everyone was isolating.

And that solution is...?

I don't know. What is happening at the moment in the UK is that lockdown measures are being avoided despite the omicron growth, and they're doing this because of the financial cost of lockdown and the belief that the health system will be able to offer beds to all the covid victims who need one. That means that they can avoid the political consequences of people taking their last gasp in a hospital car park because there was no room inside, and no staff to help them.

The political flack from all the extra cancer deaths, and all the suffering caused by long waiting lists, is none existent at the moment.  So the cost of the backlog is being discounted completely.

So one solution would involve a lock down. But obviously that would have in itself very undesirable consequences.

[steve ridgway]

No, there was no flu epidemic in 2021 because everyone was isolating.

The official line was "COVID displaced the flu" like the flu took a year off. It can't have been due to isolation as flu spreads very easily and people still managed to catch COVID.

[Mandryka]

The official line was "COVID displaced the flu" like the flu took a year off. It can't have been due to isolation as flu spreads very easily and people still managed to catch COVID.

Can you give me a link to that? I don't understand it. NB that the number of new covid cases in 2020 was declining very rapidly at precisely the time you would have expected a flu epidemic, because the country was in a long and very hard lockdown.

[steve ridgway]

Can you give me a link to that? I don't understand it.

I don't understand it either but a search found this from the NIH who I expect most people will consider an authority.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33207254/

"The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 was associated with substantial reductions in the circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses".

[Karl Henning]

Omicron surges around the world as South Africa's daily cases surpass delta peak

Regeneron says its coronavirus antibody cocktail loses potency against omicron

[MusicTurner]

At a presser here in DK, authorities said that new restrictions + continued vaccine programs were absolutely necessary to avoid an omicron-caused breakdown in the health sector, and potentially other sectors in society as well.

Also, that it will be difficult for people not to catch the virus within the next few months; the 3rd jab is now officially mainly to soften oncoming illness experiences.

New restrictions presented tomorrow.

[Karl Henning]

At a presser here in DK, authorities said that new restrictions + continued vaccine programs were absolutely necessary to avoid an omicron-caused breakdown in the health sector, and potentially other sectors in society as well.

Also, that it will be difficult for people not to catch the virus within the next few months; the 3rd jab is now officially mainly to soften oncoming illness experiences.

New restrictions presented tomorrow.

Good luck! Warm thoughts!

[Karl Henning]

Meanwhile, down in the Death Cult Belt:

Omicron is dominant strain in wastewater samples around Disney World — 12:43 p.m.
By The Associated Press

Even though there have been practically no cases of clinical infection, wastewater samples show that the new omicron variant is now the dominant strain of COVID-19 in the Florida county that is home to the nation's largest theme park resorts, officials said this week.

The omicron variant has quickly surpassed the delta variant in collections taken from wastewater sampling sites in Orange County, officials said.

A sampling this week showed that omicron represented almost 100% of the strains in the samples from the wastewater facilities, Orange County Utilities spokesperson Sarah Lux said in an email.

It's a different story when it comes to people seeking treatment for COVID-19, officials said.

"Those who are hospitalized are being primarily infected by the delta variant," Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said Wednesday at a news conference held at the Orlando International Airport.

[Karl Henning]

Hospital group boss cites 'terrifying increase' in COVID-19 patients in Mass.

By Travis Andersen Globe Staff, Updated December 16, 2021, 12:44 p.m.

The head of an influential hospital trade group on Thursday told a legislative committee that there's been a "terrifying increase" in COVID-19 patients in Massachusetts hospitals over the past month, as medical facilities deal with staffing shortages and a crunch on available beds.

"As of Tuesday there were 1,411 patients hospitalized with COVID-19″ statewide, said Steve Walsh, president and chief executive officer of the Massachusetts Health & Hospital Association, in remote testimony before the Legislature's Joint Committee on COVID-19 and Emergency Preparedness. "A month ago there were 550."

The more than two-fold spike, Walsh continued, is "a terrifying increase" in patients. He said hospitals had anticipated an uptick around Thanksgiving.

"But it was more than we thought," Walsh said. "And if that trend continues after the New Year, we're going to have increasing problems. And you throw in any type of a mass casualty event, or a bad flu season, and it's literally going to be difficult for us to meet the demands of our communities."

Asked about the recent loss of some 500 ICU and medical beds across the state - prompting the Baker administration to advise hospitals cut certain non-essential, elective procedures by half - Walsh said Massachusetts hospitals are preparing for all possible contingencies.

"As of this point, we have always been able to find that ICU bed" when necessary, Walsh said, adding that preparations "are always taking place. At this point we are not looking at implementing crisis standards of care and hope it never comes to that."

Official statistics posted Thursday to the Mass. DPH website said there were 1,411 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Massachusetts, including 326 patients in ICUs, 176 of whom were on ventilators. The site's data is updated weekdays by 5 p.m.

The current tally of hospitalized COVID patients is roughly double what it was on Sept. 14, when 706 patients were in the hospital, according to DPH data. In late June, the seven-day average for hospitalized patients was just 98.3, the data says.

Lawmakers also heard Thursday from Dr. Nahid Bhadelia, founding director of Boston University's Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases Policy and Research, who spoke to the critical need of housing security amid the pandemic.

"In the context of Omicron, what will happen to people who can't stay in their homes?" Bhadelia said. "They will end up having to go to congregate housing, which will be overcrowded. Which will then ... increase the risk of potential transmission."

Omicron is the highly transmissible variant that's been confirmed in COVID-19 patients in Boston and in Middlesex County, prompting many communities to re-implement some form of a mask mandate.

"The reason why the Omicron variant created a substantial global concern, is because of its sequence," said Dr. Dan H. Barouch, a Harvard Medical School professor and director of the Center for Virology and Vaccine Research at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, during testimony before the committee.

"Because the Omicron sequence has a substantial number of mutations," Barouch said. "In the spike protein itself, about 30 mutations - much more than Delta. ... So, the Omicron variant not only has a lot of mutations, but it has a lot of mutations that are right where antibodies bind, which raise the suspicion that it might be able to evade antibodies."

Public health officials, meanwhile, continue to urge residents to get fully vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19. People are considered fully vaccinated after two jabs of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, or the single-shot Johnson & Johnson. They become eligible for a boost six months after their second Pfizer or Moderna shot, or two months after receiving the Johnson & Johnson jab.

In a separate development on the vaccine front, the Boston Black COVID-19 Coalition in a statement blasted the Baker administration for what the advocacy group said was the misguided decision to have Fenway Park start offering booster shots to people, beginning in January.

The group contends situating the booster site at Fenway will limit accessibility to communities of color.

"The same administration took heat back in January, after waxing on at daily Covid press briefings that Black/Latino communities, the most vulnerable and hardest hit by COVID, would get priority attention and access to vaccines when they become available," the statement said. "He then announced that first site would be GILETTE STADIUM and FENWAY PARK would soon follow as the second. No one should have been surprised when according to their early stats, 96% of those accessing the first round of vaccines at Fenway, were white."

A request for comment was sent Thursday afternoon to a spokesman for the Baker administration.

The Baker administration says on its website that the state's COVID-19 Vaccine Equity Initiative works with "the populations and communities most heavily impacted by COVID-19, with a focus on the 20 hardest-hit cities and towns. The goal is to reduce barriers to COVID vaccination, increase awareness of the vaccine's safety and efficacy and, ultimately, increase vaccinations."

The administration announced in June that it had awarded $3.2 million in grants and contracts to community-based organizations as part of the initiative, in an effort to increase awareness and access to vaccines in the 20 hardest hit cities and towns.

The administration said at the time that seven new nonprofits had been awarded $2.2 million to support vaccine navigation services and customized vaccine administration, building on $6.8 million previously awarded to 25 other groups.

But the Boston Black COVID-19 Coalition said Thursday that more must be done.

"Today, BBCC, had to cancel 2 more vaccine clinics scheduled at senior developments in Roxbury, due to the lack of clinicians and vaccine availability in the neighborhoods of [Roxbury/Dorchester/Mattapan] where, in fact, the need is so critical," said coalition member Dianne Wilkerson, a former state senator, in the group's release.

"As the City of Boston, moves to implement tougher policies regarding masking and vaccine card requirements, it is incumbent upon government to make sure that the access to vaccine and testing in Roxbury, Dorchester, Mattapan, and Hyde Park is convenient, equitable and available!"

Wilkerson added that at this moment, "it is not and it makes no sense to, once again, to site a mass vaccination site in Fenway Park, when the greatest demand and documented need is on the other side of town."

[Holden]

LOL yes your government will know the full facts and is only interested in your well being, or your TV may offer a fact checking service or panel of authorities to answer your questions like the BBC does, along with heart rending stories from people whose loved ones fell prey to the evil conspiracy theorists on social media and lost their minds. They've panicked the majority here anyway, saying they're not stopping anyone going anywhere but people really ought to think very carefully before they take such an enormous risk.

The Qld Govt Health website has it's own Covid web pages where the only thing that is published is pure raw data on a daily basis. What you initially read is what happened the day before. Then there are links where there is far more data, some of it historical. If I want (which I do) I can see what is happening on a 'trending basis' and then make up my own mind as to what is happening in my state. Currently, as of midday yesterday there are 7 new cases in the state, all but one of which was contracted in MIQ. There are currently 28 people in hospital and none in ICU. It is these last two that will be of most interest, giving me a chance to get an idea of the severity of the new strain. It's too early to make a call at this stage.

One factor that you will see on the website is the results of wastewater testing which at the moment is done on a weekly basis. If it's in your wastewater then someone in your area has covid. The government can use this to predict areas where a possible outbreak will occur.

[Karl Henning]

With Omicron in 'full force,' NYC to hand out masks, tests — 4:10 p.m.
By The Associated Press

Alarmed by a rapid rise in COVID-19 cases and the increasing prevalence of the omicron variant, New York City officials will distribute one million masks and 500,000 home tests, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Thursday.

[prémont]

The official line was "COVID displaced the flu" like the flu took a year off. It can't have been due to isolation as flu spreads very easily and people still managed to catch COVID.

What you can conclude is, that COVID spreads more easily than flu.