Coronavirus thread

[Que]

Probably true, and a problem.

Agreed. Might we end up with a yearly vaccination round in the wealthy nations - just for the most vulnerable, if we're lucky - while the rest of the world has to rely on naturally acquired immunity/resistance?

[Mandryka]

England gets ready for the big one

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/nhs-england-makes-plans-for-field-hospitals-in-preparation-for-wave-of-omicron-covid-cases-1365680/amp

[Mandryka]

https://www.youtube.com/v/OM2VgBm9pTI&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell

Interesting on omicron incidental cases and severity -- best listened to at 2x speed!

[Karl Henning]

Omicron spiking, but hospitalizations 'comparatively low,' CDC director says

NYC to forge ahead with New Year's Eve gathering in Times Square despite record coronavirus infections

CDC warns against taking cruises after 5,000 new coronavirus cases in past 2 weeks

[vandermolen]

My wife had a cough this morning so we did the Lateral Flow Tests (obtaining them is a whole other story) and she tested positive. I tested negative but I guess that my chances of catching it are high. Fortunately I had my booster jab (finally) on 21st December so, it should be, more or less, up to full-strength now. Not a great start to the New Year!

[Florestan]

My wife had a cough this morning

I don't want to sound like a jerk, Jeffrey, but if coughing one morning has become a sign of great concerrn and alarm, then the world has gone madder than I should have thought it has.

Anyway, I wish your wife speedty recovery without any further symptoms.

[Karl Henning]

My wife had a cough this morning so we did the Lateral Flow Tests (obtaining them is a whole other story) and she tested positive. I tested negative but I guess that my chances of catching it are high. Fortunately I had my booster jab (finally) on 21st December so, it should be, more or less, up to full-strength now. Not a great start to the New Year!

May the missus mend rapidly! And you stay clear.

[Que]

My wife had a cough this morning so we did the Lateral Flow Tests (obtaining them is a whole other story) and she tested positive. I tested negative but I guess that my chances of catching it are high. Fortunately I had my booster jab (finally) on 21st December so, it should be, more or less, up to full-strength now. Not a great start to the New Year!

That's a bummer.. I'm hearing reports in my social circle of Covid infections left and right. And that is in a lockdow....
It seems Omicron is even more infectious than suspected, so unless you completely self isolate it will be extremely hard to avoid. But the good news is that the vaccines, and even more so if they have been reinforced with a booster, offer a lot of protection against anything getting serious. So you and your wife have the best possible starting position - a speedy recovery!

[Karl Henning]

Scientists predict Omicron will peak in the US in mid-January but still may overwhelm hospitals

By Azeen Ghorayshi New York Times, Updated December 31, 2021, 6:21 p.m.

With the news that South Africa has passed the peak of its coronavirus cases caused by the omicron variant, scientists are projecting that the United States' sharp increase in cases will crest as soon as the middle of January.

Over the past month, the omicron variant has spread around the world with astonishing speed, even among people who are vaccinated or who had recovered from previous infections. On Thursday, the United States surpassed 580,000 cases, beating the record set only a day before.

That is believed to be a vast undercount, because of testing shortages, the popularity of at-home tests and reporting delays over the holidays. What's more, a significant number of people may have asymptomatic infections and never know it.

New estimates from researchers at Columbia University suggest that the United States could peak by Jan. 9 at around 2.5 million cases per week, although that number may go as high as 5.4 million. In New York City, the first U.S. metropolis to see a major surge, the researchers estimated that cases would peak by the first week of the new year.

"It's shocking. It's disturbing," said Jeffrey Shaman, a public health researcher who led the Columbia modeling work. "We're seeing unprecedented numbers of COVID-19 cases."

The variant is significantly milder than delta and other versions of the virus and is far less likely to lead to hospitalizations, according to data from South Africa and preliminary data from Britain released Friday.

Still, the enormous numbers of people getting simultaneously infected could greatly strain hospitals, experts said, especially in places with lower vaccination rates or in places where hospitals are already overburdened. Just how much of a burden the variant will be, however, depends on how quickly it will burn out in particular communities, especially in large cities.

Those complex transmission dynamics have been maddeningly difficult to predict with precision.

Another model, released by a research group from the University of Washington last week, estimated that the United States would reach a peak in cases by the end of January. But even those researchers are now rethinking their projections based on omicron's rapid spread.

"We are realizing right now monitoring the data that the peak is going to come much faster," said Ali Mokdad, a public health researcher at the University of Washington. "My guess is it will happen before mid-January."

The numbers are increasing so quickly that some public health researchers say modeling isn't even necessary to see where things are headed. "You don't even need a model for this," said William Hanage, a public health researcher at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

There are some reasons to think that the variant's behavior in the United States might be different than in other countries. In South Africa, for example, the population is much younger, and a large proportion had been infected by earlier waves of the virus. In Britain, the vaccination rate for older people is much higher than in the United States.

And although omicron causes milder illness than previous variants, surging cases could send more people to the hospital. "The context for all of this is that hospitals are struggling," Hanage said. "We don't have that much spare capacity. And of course, omicron makes that worse."

While South Africa saw a rapid increase in cases followed by a sharp decline, it's unclear whether cases will crest in the United States in a similar fashion. Because of the number of unknowns, including the emergence of new variants and government restrictions aimed at curbing transmission, Shaman's group limits its projections to four to six weeks in the future.

Two things can cause new infections to decline, according to Natalie Dean, a public health researcher at Emory University. The biggest contributor is that the virus can burn through people in certain communities, especially dense cities; when it stops finding people to infect, new cases decline. People may also change their behaviors, whether through societal restrictions or on their own, giving the virus fewer opportunities to find them.

"Our communities are complicated — it doesn't mean that everyone in the community has gotten infected," Dean said. "It's kind of the people who are most connected."

The United States could also see more localized outbreaks, with cases beginning to decline in current hot spots, like New York City and Washington D.C., just as they're beginning to take off elsewhere. That could lead to more of a rounded peak instead of a sharp turnaround, Shaman said.

[Karl Henning]

That's a bummer.. I'm hearing reports in my social circle of Covid infections left and right. And that is in a lockdown...

One of my brothers now has infections at home.

[MusicTurner]

May the missus mend rapidly! And you stay clear.

+1

[Florestan]

With the news that South Africa has passed the peak of its coronavirus cases caused by the omicron variant.

Just had a talk with my cousin and her husband living in South Africa. All restrictions have been lifted. Covid hospitals are mostly empty. Life is back to normal.

[Mandryka]

That's a bummer.. I'm hearing reports in my social circle of Covid infections left and right. And that is in a lockdow....
It seems Omicron is even more infectious than suspected, so unless you completely self isolate it will be extremely hard to avoid. But the good news is that the vaccines, and even more so if they have been reinforced with a booster, offer a lot of protection against anything getting serious. So you and your wife have the best possible starting position - a speedy recovery!

That has to make you wonder what the effect of the lockdown actually is. This isn't covered in the UK press as far as I know because, basically, we're not planning to lock down. Presumably the European press is full of careful analysis of their controls, well thought through justifications of their restrictions.

[Karl Henning]

Just had a talk with my cousin and her husband living in South Africa. All restrictions have been lifted. Covid hospitals are mostly empty. Life is back to normal.

Good!

[Florestan]

the European press is full of careful analysis of this, well thought through justifications of these measures, fear-mongeriong, panic-inducing bullshit.

Fixed.

[Mandryka]

Fixed.

There's always the Chinese way of course. And we know there's the British way. What's interesting is whether there's a golden mean.

[Florestan]

There's always the Chinese way of course. And we know there's the British way. What's interesting is whether there's a golden mean.

The golden mean has always been there, it's simply the way nature works,

[Florestan]

Good!

I wish we could see the same in Europe and America soon.

[vandermolen]

I don't want to sound like a jerk, Jeffrey, but if coughing one morning has become a sign of great concerrn and alarm, then the world has gone madder than I should have thought it has.

Anyway, I wish your wife speedty recovery without any further symptoms.

Thanks Andrei 
It wasn't of great concern but as it's a symptom of Coronavirus I thought that it made sense to do a test.

[vandermolen]

Thanks guys for the kind thoughts. She hosted the family Zoom call this evening and seems not too bad.