Coronavirus thread

[prémont]

We are told, that omicron is more contagious, but gives rise to less serious disease than the earlier variants. Yet the death numbers are steadily rising in Denmark, which  at the moment has some of the highest number of omicron cases in the world pr. inhabitant. And opening the society completely makes of course the situation worse. We are told that herd immunity is just ahead of us, and this will cause the pandemy to die out, but I think it will last at least 2 -3 months more, provided we don't experience a new and more contagious variant before that, and in the mean time many elderly and vulnerable persons may have died from omicron. I agree completely with Mandryka's post above. It is the capital and the right-sided politicians. who have brought it so far.

Concerning new variants we have already seen four - one every half year - , which were able to spread worldwide in a very short time, so statistically it may soon be the time for a fifth variant to emerge. Just for the record.

[Karl Henning]

It's over, guys. Get over it. 

I wish you were right.

[Madiel]

Some of the data on omicron is suggesting death rates that are lower than for the flu. Some.

The fact is, the flu kills people all the time and it's not much of a news story. Certainly not a daily one. There is usually some amount of news about it, particularly if it's shaping up to be a bad year or just as part of the process of encouraging people to get vaccinated.

But we are not yet at the point in the social/media consciousness where a similar death rate for Covid-19 would go unremarked.

And, of course, there's no guarantee that we will avoid worse variants in the future. It's a very complex equation for the 'success' of a virus, transmissibility vs virulence. It seems a key reason why omicron is causing fewer problems is that it's actually not very good at infecting cells using the method that used to predominate, and which affects lung cells more. Instead omicron is infecting cells higher in the respiratory tract - which, as well as being better for us, might actually be a factor in making omicron more transmissible. It would actually be great for us if it was a factor, because then it's a win/win - the virus gets to be more transmissible and we get to be less damaged by it.  But yeah, we don't know if we could end up with a variant that combines the transmissibility traits with worse outcomes.

The best solution is still to get more of the world vaccinated, because it reduces the chances of a person getting infected with 2 strains at once, as that's one of the key ways that mixing and matching to create new variants can occur.

[Mandryka]

Some of the data on omicron is suggesting death rates that are lower than for the flu. Some.

The fact is, the flu kills people all the time and it's not much of a news story. Certainly not a daily one. There is usually some amount of news about it, particularly if it's shaping up to be a bad year or just as part of the process of encouraging people to get vaccinated.

But we are not yet at the point in the social/media consciousness where a similar death rate for Covid-19 would go unremarked.

And, of course, there's no guarantee that we will avoid worse variants in the future. It's a very complex equation for the 'success' of a virus, transmissibility vs virulence. It seems a key reason why omicron is causing fewer problems is that it's actually not very good at infecting cells using the method that used to predominate, and which affects lung cells more. Instead omicron is infecting cells higher in the respiratory tract - which, as well as being better for us, might actually be a factor in making omicron more transmissible. It would actually be great for us if it was a factor, because then it's a win/win - the virus gets to be more transmissible and we get to be less damaged by it.  But yeah, we don't know if we could end up with a variant that combines the transmissibility traits with worse outcomes.

The best solution is still to get more of the world vaccinated, because it reduces the chances of a person getting infected with 2 strains at once, as that's one of the key ways that mixing and matching to create new variants can occur.

Here's how things are in the UK after a couple of months of omicron


Influenza deaths
2018: 1,598
2019: 1,223

Influenza and Pneumonia deaths
2018: 29,516
2019: 26,398

The current daily covid deaths is averages at around 220. If that's maintained it will make about 80K covid deaths over the year.

I haven't done the calculation recently, but at the start of the year 15M had caught omicron, my guess is that it's now about 25M. So there's more than half the population to go and of course, immunity wanes, so there will me future waves this year - omicron or a new dominant variant.

My point is that it is not like flu, it is not like other respiratory diseases. It is more like dementia or cancer or heart disease. How did the idea that it was like flu gain popular traction? Answer - capitalist control of the media. Global capitalism needs people working and spending to grow.

[Madiel]

I have seen one recent scientific calculation of the Omicron death rate that makes it lower than flu. I am not interested in popular ideas on the subject. Nor, to be honest, am I interested in your own back of the envelope calculations. As more data comes in, more professional assessments of that data will occur.

For one thing, your calculation assumes that all cases are Omicron. This is not correct. For example, about a month ago the data here in Australia showed that Delta was responsible for a high proportion of the serious cases, even after Omicron was circulating. "A couple of months of Omicron circulating" does not mean that for those couple of months every death is attributable to Omicron.

[Mandryka]

I actually now think what I was said was bad logic. I'll post my latest thoughts about this, in case anyone has any feedback.


There have been about 10K deaths since omicron hit Britain December 2021. About half the population have caught it up to now, the other half will catch it in Spring. We can expect another 10K deaths in this wave. Other omicron waves could happen this year, but they will likely be less severe because there will probably be some residual immunity.

So I now think I was wrong to think that omicron is a scourge as important as heart disease or cancer. It's more like respiratory viruses - flu and pneumonia.

[Que]

My impression of latest consensus is that the deathrate of Omicron is indeed lower than that of a serious flu (it also come in variants). But this is likely to be influenced by the high vaccination rate of those who are normally at risk during a flu epidemic. However, unlike the flu, Omicron can -in some cases - still cause healthy individuals ending up in hospital.

[Karl Henning]

Some of the data on omicron is suggesting death rates that are lower than for the flu. Some.

The fact is, the flu kills people all the time and it's not much of a news story. Certainly not a daily one. There is usually some amount of news about it, particularly if it's shaping up to be a bad year or just as part of the process of encouraging people to get vaccinated.

But we are not yet at the point in the social/media consciousness where a similar death rate for Covid-19 would go unremarked.

And, of course, there's no guarantee that we will avoid worse variants in the future. It's a very complex equation for the 'success' of a virus, transmissibility vs virulence. It seems a key reason why omicron is causing fewer problems is that it's actually not very good at infecting cells using the method that used to predominate, and which affects lung cells more. Instead omicron is infecting cells higher in the respiratory tract - which, as well as being better for us, might actually be a factor in making omicron more transmissible. It would actually be great for us if it was a factor, because then it's a win/win - the virus gets to be more transmissible and we get to be less damaged by it.  But yeah, we don't know if we could end up with a variant that combines the transmissibility traits with worse outcomes.

The best solution is still to get more of the world vaccinated, because it reduces the chances of a person getting infected with 2 strains at once, as that's one of the key ways that mixing and matching to create new variants can occur.

The virus is clever than the risk-deniers, for certain.

[Karl Henning]

How did the idea that it was like flu gain popular traction? Answer - capitalist control of the media. Global capitalism needs people working and spending to grow.

FWIW, the first I heard anything on those lines was an old friend (a Trumpkin, but let that drop at present) who told me, "Look at a Listerine bottle: we've always had Coronavirus." He's an ingrained knowitall, so it's no use tellig him he ,issed the "novel" in "novel Coronavirus," so here in the States the idea that it's no worse than the flu originated with the disgraced former president, not the "corporate media" per se.

[Mandryka]

FWIW, the first I heard anything on those lines was an old friend (a Trumpkin, but let that drop at present) who told me, "Look at a Listerine bottle: we've always had Coronavirus." He's an ingrained knowitall, so it's no use tellig him he ,issed the "novel" in "novel Coronavirus," so here in the States the idea that it's no worse than the flu originated with the disgraced former president, not the "corporate media" per se.

Chortle.

[Madiel]

FWIW, the first I heard anything on those lines was an old friend (a Trumpkin, but let that drop at present) who told me, "Look at a Listerine bottle: we've always had Coronavirus." He's an ingrained knowitall, so it's no use tellig him he ,issed the "novel" in "novel Coronavirus," so here in the States the idea that it's no worse than the flu originated with the disgraced former president, not the "corporate media" per se.

Oh Lord. That's like saying "I like cats" while you're being mauled by a tiger.

[oldhand]

The point being alluded to here but not yet fully presented, is all about how deaths/cases are recorded. What's prompted me is this from Madiel

Some of the data on omicron is suggesting death rates that are lower than for the flu. Some.

The fact is, the flu kills people all the time and it's not much of a news story. Certainly not a daily one. There is usually some amount of news about it, particularly if it's shaping up to be a bad year or just as part of the process of encouraging people to get vaccinated.

I read an article, before the pandemic, by a leading researcher who was trying to promote the idea of the flu jab and he based it on the idea that the flu killed far more people than official statistics suggested. His reasoning was all down to death certificates. These are usually issued by an attending doctor, in some cases the persons own GP and what he/she writes on the certificate is what's recorded. If it doesn't say 'influenza' or 'complications from influenza' it doesn't count as influenza. So the flu caused a heart attack/respiratory failure/stroke/pneumonia/etc and if this is what is written on the death certificate it becomes the official cause of death. His research suggested that the number of deaths attributable to 'flu was exponentially higher than those appearing in official censuses. There was much more information in this research but this is the crux of it.

Now look at official hospitalisation/death figures from Covid. Everyone who dies in hospital or a nursing home nowadays is tested for Covid. And it begs the question - did they die from Covid or with Covid. I suspect that many of the deaths attributed to Covid might have actually been from other causes. But, if they had Covid, that was the cause.

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

When we think about the influence of a pandemic, intensity (severity) is only one of several factors and other factors such as scope (wideness) and duration should be condidered as well. If the death per capita for Omicron is 1/4 of that of Delta but its transmissibility is more than 4 times (for instance), Omicron would exert a larger influence.

[Madiel]

The point being alluded to here but not yet fully presented, is all about how deaths/cases are recorded. What's prompted me is this from Madiel

I read an article, before the pandemic, by a leading researcher who was trying to promote the idea of the flu jab and he based it on the idea that the flu killed far more people than official statistics suggested. His reasoning was all down to death certificates. These are usually issued by an attending doctor, in some cases the persons own GP and what he/she writes on the certificate is what's recorded. If it doesn't say 'influenza' or 'complications from influenza' it doesn't count as influenza. So the flu caused a heart attack/respiratory failure/stroke/pneumonia/etc and if this is what is written on the death certificate it becomes the official cause of death. His research suggested that the number of deaths attributable to 'flu was exponentially higher than those appearing in official censuses. There was much more information in this research but this is the crux of it.

Now look at official hospitalisation/death figures from Covid. Everyone who dies in hospital or a nursing home nowadays is tested for Covid. And it begs the question - did they die from Covid or with Covid. I suspect that many of the deaths attributed to Covid might have actually been from other causes. But, if they had Covid, that was the cause.

Why exactly do you "suspect" that, apart from wishing it to be so?

If anything your own narrative is not an argument for saying Covid isn't so severe, it's an argument for saying we underappreciate the severity of influenza. And yet then you suddenly turn it around to say that Covid wasn't the actual cause of death.

If what you're trying to say is that the official Covid death toll would be less if we counted it the way we count the official influenza toll, okay. But that's a very different proposition. That's not a demonstration that Covid is actually less severe, that's just an argument is that we ought to have incorrect figures for Covid like we do for the flu.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the equation you're ignoring all the people who never got tested for Covid before dying. In some places it's considered highly likely that there was an undercount for that reason, the USA being one of them.

[Florestan]

The Romanian minister of Health announced that all the data show that in March the number of cases will plummet marking the end of the pandemic in our country. Consequently all restrictions will be ditched by the end of March with the possible exception of the mask mandate indoor. It's over.

[Mandryka]

The Romanian minister of Health announced that all the data show that in March the number of cases will plummet marking the end of the pandemic in our country. Consequently all restrictions will be ditched by the end of March with the possible exception of the mask mandate indoor. It's over.

That's excellent news and I'm sure everyone is happy about it.

It probably won't mark the end of the pandemic. If he's really saying that then he's misleading. It will mark the end of the first omicron wave. There may be a second omicron wave later in the year, as immunity wanes - probably less important than the first. And there could well be new dominant variants, which present their own challenges in turn.

[Florestan]

That's excellent news and I'm sure everyone is happy about it.

Maybe not everyone, I'm sure the small but vocal bunch of lockdown-cum-restrictions fanatics and prophets of doom will be quite unhappy.

It probably won't mark the end of the pandemic. If he's really saying that then he's misleading. It will mark the end of the first omicron wave. There may be a second omicron wave later in the year, as immunity wanes - probably less important than the first. And there could well be new dominant variants, which present their own challenges in turn.

All that would file under endemic. Be it as it might, the restrictions will soon be a thing of the past.

[prémont]

All that would file under endemic. Be it as it might, the restrictions will soon be a thing of the past.

Of course not, don't be naive. A new variant of corona may well give rise to a new pandemic in the way both the Wuhan, the alpha, the delta and the omicron did. And the risk that we get a new variant of that kind is very great.

[Mandryka]

Be it as it might, the restrictions will soon be a thing of the past.

Maybe, I hope so, but I think it is wishful thinking. I think it's best to be ready for things like work from home to be implemented again, and for the cost of improving ventilation in the workplace.

[Florestan]

Of course not, don't be naive.

Great! If I don't believe the Romanian authorities, I'm a conspiracy theorist. If I believe them, I'm naive. 

A new variant of corona may well give rise to a new pandemic in the way both the Wuhan, the alpha, the delta and the omicron did. And the risk that we get a new variant of that kind is very great.

Talk about prophets of doom...  I suppose you are utterly opposed to the lifting of restrictions in Denmark and would like to see them back in place as soon as possible.