Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM
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Quote from: Madiel on March 02, 2023, 12:25:04 PMOne of the recent summaries of why the evidence for a zoonotic virus is strong. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/02/28/1160162845/what-does-the-science-say-about-the-origin-of-the-sars-cov-2-pandemic
Quote from: vandermolen on March 02, 2023, 10:40:32 AMToday some leaked WhatsApp messages from a former (disgraced) Health Secretary here in the UK revealed that, at one stage during the early days of the pandemic, the government was considering ordering the public to 'EXTERMINATE ALL CATS' in the UK.PS Don't show this message to Pohjola's Daughter!
Quote from: krummholz on March 02, 2023, 01:29:01 PMYep, read that as well (and actually, posted the link to the AAAS forum). I was a little baffled that Worobey would consider the geographic distribution of the initial cases such convincing evidence, since there is a simple alternative scenario to zoonosis AT the market: patient zero (be they an infected researcher from the WIV or someone infected through zoonosis elsewhere) visits the market and infects someone who works there, then becomes ill, stays home and never infects anyone else. But the fact that samples from animal stalls at the market tested positive for actual SARS-CoV-2 could only be explained if that worker was also an animal handler or someone tasked with cleaning out the stalls, and it's still hard to explain that way the apparent fact that the infected stalls were precisely the ones used to house species (like raccoon dogs) that are known to be susceptible to bat coronaviruses.Still, if the scientist on AAAS (who was, by the way, a biotech entrepreneur and not a retired biologist, my bad there) is correct, it does sound quite a bit less likely that the insertion of the so-called furin cleavage site in the SARS-CoV-2 genome could have happened naturally. For those better versed than I in microbiology, it might be worthwhile to read Nobel laureate David Baltimore's take on this. He was one of the earliest proponents of the lab-leak hypothesis and at first considered that insertion a "smoking gun" for human engineering, though he was more guarded in his comments at the above link.
Quote from: Madiel on March 02, 2023, 02:14:14 PMThe other obvious problem with the hypothesis of a lab worker infecting the market is not just that the lab worker hasn't been identified, but the theory involves infecting ONLY the market and not anywhere else. Not family, neighbours, any other kind of contact.
Quote from: krummholz on March 02, 2023, 05:23:48 PMIt's not necessarily a problem - depends on the sequence of events and how much contact the person (who may or may not have been a lab worker in this scenario) had with other people. We assume that someone who goes to the market has lots of contact with many other people, but that isn't necessarily true. If it were *me*, I might leave my job, go directly to the market, interact with people there, then go directly home and (especially if living alone, as I do) not interact with anyone else except people at work. And if it WAS a researcher... we don't know for sure what precautions were taken at the WIV, but they SHOULD have (and might have) used PPE extensively and were not exposed to each other.
Quote from: Madiel on March 02, 2023, 05:58:25 PMI wasn't suggesting within the lab but more generally. Yes, there are ways of constructing a scenario of transmission, the main problem is how you have to construct a scenario, without anything to back it up beyond wanting to justify a laboratory origin. The origin in the market has a lot more positive evidence to support transmission, including the positive traces of the virus on equipment. Which of course wouldn't matter if there was clear evidence of an unnatural, engineered virus. But most scientists seem comfortable that the virus has characteristics consistent with a natural origin.
Quote from: krummholz on March 02, 2023, 07:28:04 PMDo we really need to KNOW which it was to take steps to prevent another pandemic? I don't think so. We need to make sure that gain-of-function research on pathogens takes place only in facilities and by researchers equipped with the best containment hardware and following the strictest biohazard protocols. And we also need to reduce contact between humans and wild animals to make zoonotic spillover less likely. That way we cover all bases regardless of where SARS-CoV-2 actually came from.Whether we can actually DO these things as a practical matter, of course, is another question.
Quote from: Madiel on February 28, 2023, 05:48:36 PMThere is no reason to go looking for the laboratory at fault when the scientists say the virus shows no sign of being FROM a laboratory, ANY laboratory, in the first place. Starting with the existence of a laboratory in Wuhan is exactly backwards. You need to start with a laboratory-engineered virus, and then of course working out which laboratory engineered it would be fairly straightforward in the circumstances.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 02, 2023, 08:38:27 PMYou've gone a little too far there. The preponderance of evidence seems to indicate that the virus was a product of natural processes rather than engineering. This does not rule out a laboratory event, since a virus collected from the wild and under study could have infected a worker, who brought it out into the general population. That worker could have gone to the wet market where crowded conditions could have led to rapid spread. I'm more inclined to believe that the spread was natural because of Occam's razor, the simpler explanation is more likely to be true.As far as the DoE now claiming they have "new intelligence" supporting the lab leak version, I find that utterly unconvincing. There is no evidence they are willing to put forward. When these intelligence agencies don't have a clue they have to make something up. I suspect that is what is happening.
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 02, 2023, 12:23:30 PMI've heard of it before, but have only a few downloaded apps on my cell phone (both bird ID programs). So, tell me about it. Why does it matter/importance (if it is)?PD
Quote from: Florestan on March 03, 2023, 01:13:30 AMYou can have video-calls (including multiple users), write messages, share files and location, stuff like that. It's as widely used and known as Google, hence my surprise. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WhatsApp
Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 04, 2023, 01:21:40 PMThe tiny bit that I later googled about it, it seems that it's more popular in Europe (and maybe elsewhere--I forget--vs in the US).PD
Quote from: Madiel on February 28, 2023, 05:48:36 PMNot the very specific thing they were studying. Unless you think "viruses" is specific.If we are going to continue with this analogy, there was no proof that a robbery was involved. It reminds me of a relative of my mother who insisted she was robbed when my mother was pretty darn sure the relative just left something behind when leaving a train.This again gets back to the problem with relying on intelligence agencies for this stuff. They are trained to find your "robber", so they are inevitably going to look for one rather than taking a step back and asking whether anyone at all was robbed.
Quote from: Madiel on March 02, 2023, 05:58:25 PMI wasn't suggesting within the lab but more generally. Yes, there are ways of constructing a scenario of transmission, the main problem is how you have to construct a scenario, without anything to back it up beyond wanting to justify a laboratory origin.
Quote from: Spotted Horses on March 04, 2023, 02:01:52 PMI use it primarily as a text messaging app, although it supports images and other attachments and voice and video(?) calls. (Similar to iMessage, but not restricted to Apple users). It came from Silicon Valley and is now owned by Facebook.
Quote from: SimonNZ on March 06, 2023, 02:50:39 PMDoes Todd actually believe the uneloborated and unsupported claims that Scott fucking Atlas is making unconvincingly there?Or does he just once again want to have a stir, to enjoy watching everyone react?
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