Coronavirus thread

[Todd]

The justification for closing the schools was never that children were vulnerable. It was that epidemiological studies had shown that schools were a major pathway for the disease to spread through a community.

I am fully aware of the rationalizations used.  You think they were reasonable.  That's fine.  I do not.  Neither your opinion nor my opinion are scientific. Your rationalization is typical of those who defend policies that ranged from mediocre to horrible.

Then we should hope for a nice, good war close to home, shouldn't we? That's when savvy investors and businessmen really get wealthier...

If by "we", you mean Europeans, sure, I guess.  One of the many beauties of being an American is that wars that boost defense industry and financial sector profits, and more than occasionally market indices at the same time, always occur over there.  By over there, I mean in countries on the other side of either big ocean separating us from the tumult of less stable regions - eg, Africa, Europe.  (Sure, one could look at Haiti now, but that's small potatoes and not really going to generate sweet free cash flow, you know what I'm sayin'.)

[Karl Henning]

This, in spades.

This is non-scientific anecdote, but the latest virus I contracted (not 'flu, not COVID, not strep, but the "none of the above" virus) followed directly after the only time I was in an enclosed space with a substantial population of strange children all year.

[DavidW]

I think expert views on this changed over time and depending on conditions. Certainly early on I remember that scientists here were advising against school closures, despite the average parent saying "but we always get diseases from the kids".

Policy was always a moving target as we continued to do research and learn more.  Being flexible and dynamic in face of such uncertainty I find to be wise, others, oddly enough, find it to be foolish.

[DavidW]

This is non-scientific anecdote, but the latest virus I contracted (not 'flu, not COVID, not strep, but the "none of the above" virus) followed directly after the only time I was in an enclosed space with a substantial population of strange children all year.

As a teacher at a boarding school TELL ME ABOUT IT.  Illness spreads like wildfire here.

[Madiel]

Policy was always a moving target as we continued to do research and learn more.  Being flexible and dynamic in face of such uncertainty I find to be wise, others, oddly enough, find it to be foolish.

I don't know about your media-political culture, but around here changing your mind is regularly portrayed as some kind of disaster or sign of weakness. The theory seems to be that between elections you're not supposed to actually take on data or think or govern.

And when it comes to science there's a similar attitude. Scientists are just supposed to state the answer. There's no insight into how the scientific method actually works.

I always marvelled at one interview with a now long-departed politician. In the same interview his answer to one question was a very open "I don't know" and his response to a quote from a few years earlier was "I've changed my mind". My estimation of him went up massively because of his willingness to publicly say both those things.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Yesterday while doing a crossword puzzle, I ran across a number of quotes from Richard Feynman one of which was "I would rather have questions that can't be answered than answers that can't be questioned".

And "We never are definitely right, we can only be sure we are wrong".

From this website  https://www.azquotes.com/author/4774-Richard_P_Feynman

[DavidW]

And "We never are definitely right, we can only be sure we are wrong".

Karl Popper's falsification theory.  There are other philosophies of science, but that tends to be the one I use as a compass.

What is interesting or maddening is David Hume's philosophy which turns the entire idea of science and empiricism on its head.  I see it more as a reflection that we have unspoken axioms necessary for the endeavor of scientific inquiry.

[Karl Henning]

Massachusetts on Thursday reported 486 new confirmed coronavirus cases and 3 deaths in the week from April 21-April 27.

The state also reported that 0.7 percent of all total hospitalizations during that timeframe in Massachusetts were related to COVID-19, meaning about 100 patients were hospitalized with COVID-19, and that the seven-day percent positivity was 3.07 percent.

On Oct. 5, the state released its new respiratory illness dashboard, combining COVID-19 data with data on flu and RSV.

One of the members of our church just tested positive. She hadn't been in contact with anyone else in the congregation for a while, so probably only her family members are affected.

[krummholz]

One of the members of our church just tested positive. She hadn't been in contact with anyone else in the congregation for a while, so probably only her family members are affected.

Sorry to hear this, Karl, and I hope she recovers quickly and no one in her family gets seriously ill.

How do those numbers compare with last year at this time? Nationwide, I'm hearing that virus activity is quite low, at least based on wastewater, now the most reliable gauge we have of how prevalent the virus actually is in the population. But that's nationwide, and there might be hot spots of activity.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Sorry to hear this, Karl, and I hope she recovers quickly and no one in her family gets seriously ill.

How do those numbers compare with last year at this time? Nationwide, I'm hearing that virus activity is quite low, at least based on wastewater, now the most reliable gauge we have of how prevalent the virus actually is in the population. But that's nationwide, and there might be hot spots of activity.

I wonder how much testing is done and if there are any differences in frequencies throughout the states--particularly these days?

PD

[Karl Henning]

How do those numbers compare with last year at this time?

I don't know. It seems that I ought to read that in some of the graphs in the Globe article, but if it's in there, I'm missing it. Unscientifically, I feel that overall there's not much Coronaviral activity.

[Karl Henning]

Sorry to hear this, Karl, and I hope she recovers quickly and no one in her family gets seriously ill.

Thanks! I have every confidence that she'll rebound well. What surprised me, I guess (and I suppose I ought not to let it surprise me) is that we still have COVID fatalities.

[krummholz]

I wonder how much testing is done and if there are any differences in frequencies throughout the states--particularly these days?

PD

As I understand it, all the testing that's being done now is unofficial, by private citizens using the antigen tests. You can't even buy a LAMP test for less than $75, and my clinic no longer has PCR tests. And states are no longer required to report cases. So wastewater is the only reliable indicator left that public health authorities can use to gauge viral activity.

[krummholz]

Thanks! I have every confidence that she'll rebound well. What surprised me, I guess (and I suppose I ought not to let it surprise me) is that we still have COVID fatalities.

Yes we do. They're nowhere near the levels of even a couple years ago, and they're mostly among the elderly and unvaccinated (or who haven't gotten the latest shot)... but they still happen.

[Spotted Horses]

Yes we do. They're nowhere near the levels of even a couple years ago, and they're mostly among the elderly and unvaccinated (or who haven't gotten the latest shot)... but they still happen.

Well, yes, and people die of the flu. It seems that the hoped for herd immunity (due to vaccination and community exposure) has been achieved and the disease has become endemic.

[krummholz]

Well, yes, and people die of the flu. It seems that the hoped for herd immunity (due to vaccination and community exposure) has been achieved and the disease has become endemic.

The disease has become endemic, but true herd immunity is impossible when individual immunity only lasts a few months at best - not to mention that because of mutations, new strains keep cropping up. Vaccine takeup is so low (at least nationwide - there are certainly locales where it is higher) that individual immunity relies mainly on people actually getting sick. You're right, though, that nearly everyone* has enough immunity that the case mortality rate is likely approaching that of the flu. The main difference is that this virus causes long-term illness much more frequently than the flu.

*But, anedcdotally, I have a friend who lives in northern Michigan who believes the vaccines have killed millions of people and has never gotten the jab. She is over 70 and lives with her over 70, diabetic wife, who has also never gotten the jab. People like that are the ones in the greatest danger now from the virus, as they have ZERO immunity against it.