Coronavirus thread

[Florestan]

     The question assumes something not in evidence, that panic and not an overactive precaution gland causes people to stock up. Stocking up means fewer shopping trips and fewer occasions for catching the virus. You get as much as you can in one trip and then you stay home like any rational neurotic should do.

In other words, it's rational and acceptable, recommendable even, to fight over and stockpile toilet paper, food and beverages.

[Florestan]

This list, which isn't corrected for other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.) and doesn't mention whether the patients have got relevant treatment or not, isn't that useful.

We don't know whether it is corrected or not or whether the patients were treated or not because drogulus did not provide the source, but imo the figures might be quite realistic. The mortality begins to rise for the 50-59 yo group, accelerates for 60-69 and explodes for 70-79. For 80 and over it's a disaster. Nothing unexpected, it's common sense that the probablity of dying from Covid-19 is much greater for older people who, by the very fact of being old, already have "other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.)".

The real problem with this list (or any other) is that it refers to cases which have been reported and confirmed. If, as doctors say, about 80% of the people who get infected develop a form with mild symptoms, or even no symptoms at all, then probably there are many cases which have not been reported and that means that the mortality rate might be smaller in reality, though I suspect that the difference is not dramatic, at least not for the older age groups which would anyway mostly fall in the other 20% (medium or severe symptoms)

[prémont]

We don't know whether it is corrected or not or whether the patients were treated or not because drogulus did not provide the source, but imo the figures might be quite realistic. The mortality begins to rise for the 50-59 yo group, accelerates for 60-69 and explodes for 70-79. For 80 and over it's a disaster. Nothing unexpected, it's common sense that the probablity of dying from Covid-19 is much greater for older people who, by the very fact of being old, already have "other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.)".

The real problem with this list (or any other) is that it refers to cases which have been reported and confirmed. If, as doctors say, about 80% of the people who get infected develop a form with mild symptoms, or even no symptoms at all, then probably there are many cases which have not been reported and that means that the mortality rate might be smaller in reality, though I suspect that the difference is not dramatic, at least not for the older age groups which would anyway mostly fall in the other 20% (medium or severe symptoms)

You may be right, but being medically educated myself I have often seen that estimates on an uncertain basis eventually proved to be incorrect. As the list stands, it is as well as certain, that it isn't corrected for anything. The problem with that kind of lists is, that I e.g. (being 70+ and not completely healthy but without complicating diseases which are relevant in this context) can't use it to see if my risk for serious disease is increased - and how much - if age is my only "disposition".

[Karl Henning]

Tennessee man who stockpiled hand sanitizer donates 17,700 bottles ahead of investigation

[Florestan]

The problem with that kind of lists is, that I e.g. (being 70+ and not completely healthy but without complicating diseases which are relevant in this context) can't use it to see if my risk for serious disease is increased - and how much - if age is my only "disposition".

That's correct.

But do you really need such a list in order to assess your personal risk? If you are 70+ but wiithout complicating diseases which are relevant in this context you can assume that if --- God forbid! --- you catch the virus and you get adequate treatment you are likely to get cured without complications. A worse scenario, or even the worst, cannot of course be completely excluded, for any age group, but I think a vigilant optimism and the strict following of general hygienic rules and Covid-19-specific rules and restrictions is the best, most rational and helpful attitude. Let us all do whatever we are supposed to do and whatever we are urged to do in order not to get infected --- what else could we do, anyway?

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I went into a local supermarket yesterday which appeared to have just been visited by a plague of locusts.

More encouragingly, a neighbour came round yesterday to ask for help in setting up a local support group to try and assist anyone in the village who needs help during the crisis. Apparently everyone so far had agreed to join the group.

Yeah!!   

Regarding the market shelves, I understand your feelings.  Hit a couple of stores yesterday with a friend of mine as we had gone (separately) the day before and experienced the shock of seeing many empty shelves, lots of fresh meat gone, frozen veg gone, etc.  Hadn't seen anything like that before (I'm grateful to say).  We went to a large supermarket getting there five minutes after they opened; number of cars in the lot (I suspect that isn't the normal case for an early Sunday morning).  We arrived there just in time: picked up some TP (not crazy amounts either)...the rest was gone in about 5-10 minutes.  No hand wipes to be found...did have some bleach there and fresh veggie area was good and they were busy restocking that.  Went to another market where I was able to purchase some chicken...my local co-op...well, no chicken in their cases but they did have some at the meat counter along with beef and fresh fish and lots of fresh veg.  Think that they were low-to-sold out of a number of frozen veg and frozen fruit.  Pretty crazy, but I was able to get 85-90% of what I wanted between the three stores.  Interestingly enough, a local small market still had about half of their normal amount of frozen veggies on their shelves (freezer units).

I do own a spare freezer (not huge but it does fill up surprisingly quickly!) which I purchased about a year ago as I do like to make things like chicken stock, soup, purchase some things when they are on sale, pick and freeze local produce, etc.

The irony:  we're supposed to social-distance as much as possible; so, how do you do this when the markets are packed?!      I'm just trying to go less often at my end....and make sure that I'm organized before I get there (which I try to do anyways).

How are others coping here?  Are you 1) eating out less (if you did eat out often to begin with); 2) shopping less often?; 3) ordering, if possible, to have groceries and/or meals delivered?; 4) stocking up on anything in particular?; 5) cooking more of your meals from scratch?; 6) changing the time of day or days that you do shop?;  7) ordering more online?;   8 helping to shop for neighbors?  Just curious....stay safe everyone!

Best wishes,

PD

[drogulus]

This list, which isn't corrected for other serious diseases (heart disease, chronic lung disease et.c.) and doesn't mention whether the patients have got relevant treatment or not, isn't that useful.

     It's useful to me, because it fills a gap in knowledge. I know about the reasons why age matter for this disease, at least those that have been identified. I wanted to see the numbers, though.

     

[drogulus]

In other words, it's rational and acceptable, recommendable even, to fight over and stockpile toilet paper, food and beverages.

     When I was in line at the store people were joking about it. I didn't see any fighting. If I did see signs of, how you say, panic, I would do my best to not accept it.

     Things should settle down as the stores continue to restock shelves and people run out of room for Campbell's cream of something soup and pop tarts.

     

[ritter]

...you can assume that if --- God forbid! --- you catch the virus and you get adequate treatment you are likely to get cured without complications....

The main problem appears to be that even the most advanced medical systems in the world (and, fortunately, Spain is generally considered to be among them) cannot cope with the surge of serious cases. Available space in IC units is running out, and previously unthinkable measures (such as medicalisation of some hotels) are being taken.

That's why these drastic measures to contain the pandemic (or rather, delay its spread) are being taken,  so that adequate treatment is available when it's really needed.

Madrid is now a ghost town, but there's no shortage of foodstuffs in the markets and supermarkets in my neighbourhood (which is right in the middle of the old historic centre). There's no such thing as "eating out" anymore (and surely Spaniards are a people that eat out all the time).

Regards to all,

[Karl Henning]

The main problem appears to be that even the most advanced medical systems in the world (and, fortunately, Spain is generally considered to be among them) can cope with the surge of serious cases. Available space in IC units is running out, and previously unthinkable measures (such as medicalisation of some hotels) are being taken.

That's why these drastic measures to contain the pandemic (or rather, delay its spread) are bring taken,  so that adequate treatment is available when it's really needed.

Madrid is now a ghost town, but there's no shortage of foodstuffs in the markets and supermarkets in my neighbourhood (which is right in the middle of the old historic centre). There's no such thing as "eating out" anymore (and surely Spaniards are a people that eats out all the time).

Regards to all,

Exactly!

[steve ridgway]

We're not taking the 91 year old father in law to cafes now, just going for a walk and getting take away food to eat outside away from crowded areas. We now stop at a small supermarket on the way to taking the dogs for a walk rather than after, so we avoid the time when it's packed with school kids buying their sweets, chocolate, cake, biscuits and fizzy drink.

What's the state of health of the elderly Italian population nowadays? I haven't been there for about 25 years and in Britain there is now much more obesity, diabetes and medication. My image of healthy people enjoying the Mediterranean diet and sunlight may thus no longer be correct.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

How are others coping here?  Are you 1) eating out less (if you did eat out often to begin with); 2) shopping less often?; 3) ordering, if possible, to have groceries and/or meals delivered?; 4) stocking up on anything in particular?; 5) cooking more of your meals from scratch?; 6) changing the time of day or days that you do shop?;  7) ordering more online?;   8 helping to shop for neighbors?  Just curious....stay safe everyone!

Not that much has changed. We like to cook at home and rarely go to restaurants nowadays, and we already had a load of toilet paper, canned goods etc. at home. I did go out shopping for some specific things yesterday. Stores are imposing a limit of 2 per customer on certain key items.

The main negative difference for me personally is that work is drying up. If business trips aren't being made, then deals aren't being done, then work is not being generated for me. I'm trying to make the most of the free time, which isn't hard because I can come up with lots of things to do.

The most depressing thing is that our local brewpub closed. I suppose it was inevitable, but we normally go there 2/3 times a week, often with dog. So I'm gonna miss that.

[prémont]

But do you really need such a list in order to assess your personal risk? If you are 70+ but wiithout complicating diseases which are relevant in this context you can assume that if --- God forbid! --- you catch the virus and you get adequate treatment you are likely to get cured without complications. A worse scenario, or even the worst, cannot of course be completely excluded, for any age group, but I think a vigilant optimism and the strict following of general hygienic rules and Covid-19-specific rules and restrictions is the best, most rational and helpful attitude. Let us all do whatever we are supposed to do and whatever we are urged to do in order not to get infected --- what else could we do, anyway?

Of course, I take my precautions, just as all other sensible people do. But it would be nice to see a statistic that showed my risk not being much higher than the average risk of all ages, instead of this which shows that people in my age group have got a relatively high risk.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

We're not taking the 91 year old father in law to cafes now, just going for a walk and getting take away food to eat outside away from crowded areas. We now stop at a small supermarket on the way to taking the dogs for a walk rather than after, so we avoid the time when it's packed with school kids buying their sweets, chocolate, cake, biscuits and fizzy drink.

What's the state of health of the elderly Italian population nowadays? I haven't been there for about 25 years and in Britain there is now much more obesity, diabetes and medication. My image of healthy people enjoying the Mediterranean diet and sunlight may thus no longer be correct.

Sorry to hear that...particularly regarding your father-in-law.  How are his spirits holding up?

PD

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Not that much has changed. We like to cook at home and rarely go to restaurants nowadays, and we already had a load of toilet paper, canned goods etc. at home. I did go out shopping for some specific things yesterday. Stores are imposing a limit of 2 per customer on certain key items.

The main negative difference for me personally is that work is drying up. If business trips aren't being made, then deals aren't being done, then work is not being generated for me. I'm trying to make the most of the free time, which isn't hard because I can come up with lots of things to do.

The most depressing thing is that our local brewpub closed. I suppose it was inevitable, but we normally go there 2/3 times a week, often with dog. So I'm gonna miss that.

I'm very sorry to hear to hear about it effecting your work.  Is there a way that you could (or whomever is behind 'the deals') teleconference?  Or does one have to be physically there to demonstrate the product or design it, etc.?

And how long is the pub closed for--at the minimum?  Sounds like a nice place to go to too!

PD

[drogulus]

Of course, I take my precautions, just as all other sensible people do. But it would be nice to see a statistic that showed my risk not being much higher than the average risk of all ages, instead of this which shows that people in my age group have got a relatively high risk.

     That's true, but I suppose that the high risk associated with age incorporates all factors, including the likelihood that you have a standard mix of age related deficiencies in your immune system.

     I know I'm as well protected from seasonal flu as any person my age can be. That's not a strong indicator of how my immune system will function faced with a novel virus. The safe assumption is that I'm less safe than a 40 year old me would be. I also suppose that if we had a good chart for healthy people divided into the same age brackets we'd have a gentler curve.

[steve ridgway]

Sorry to hear that...particularly regarding your father-in-law.  How are his spirits holding up?

PD

I don't think he appreciates what's going on, he's pretty confused, so actually he's quite cheerful.

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

I'm very sorry to hear to hear about it effecting your work.  Is there a way that you could (or whomever is behind 'the deals') teleconference?  Or does one have to be physically there to demonstrate the product or design it, etc.?

And how long is the pub closed for--at the minimum?  Sounds like a nice place to go to too!

PD

I'm a translator, so I'm working with documents on my computer, and all of this depends on having a smooth flow of international business. Demand naturally fluctuates, that's the nature of this freelance job, but I have no idea how long the current slowdown will last. Teleconferencing is irrelevant to me personally.

The brewpub is planning to close this week until it becomes safe to reopen. It is a nice place, in fact they just celebrated their 10th anniversary. They've won a lot of awards over that decade.

https://www.lbbrew.com/

[vandermolen]

The schools in the UK are staying open for now. I dislike Boris Johnson but think it is the right decision. If the school, where I teach, closes I will be expected to teach my classes by 'online video lessons' from home. Sounds like a total nightmare. Apparently my students will be able to see me but I will not be able to see them. I have a vision of trying to teach them from the living room of my house with the cat standing on the laptop keyboard and staring into the screen, as he often does, and my wife shouting from the kitchen for me to come and help with the washing up. I told my daughter about this nightmare scenario and her boss said that she wants to join my 'online lesson'. 

[Florestan]

it would be nice to see a statistic that showed my risk not being much higher than the average risk of all ages, instead of this which shows that people in my age group have got a relatively high risk.

No doubt it will be a most reassuring thing. Well, let's wait for such statistics to be compiled and relesed, I'm sure somebody somewhere is working at it.