Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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vandermolen

#180
Quote from: Florestan on March 16, 2020, 01:02:43 PM
That's absolutely true, happened in Romania, where a person infected all his family. But I ask you: when is the probabilty of infection higher, when all persons in a household interact with many other persons, or when only a few persons in the household do?

Btw, the number of infections in Romania would have been much smaller if some people returning from high risk countries would have told the truth to the authorities and got placed in quarantine, or would have not left the quarantine. Of the 168 cases reported as I'm typing, 42 are officially prosecuted for either lying about the countries they were returning from, or for leaving the quarantine. Go figure!
Yes, I see your point of course Andrei and that's very bad about people not telling the truth about where they have been.

Lots of discussion about the schools situation on the BBC News this morning. One good point is that for children from a poorer background their school meal may well be their only hot meal of the day.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Mandryka

#181
Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:51:04 PM
That's a good point Jeffrey. I expect that the schools here may well close by the end of the week any way.

Shocking that the teachers unions have been once again so toothless, their members have been placed right on the front line, many of them are over 60 or have health problems.

The Imperial College report which is the best model we have suggests that social isolation will have to persist for at least 18 months, until a vaccine becomes available. If the schools in the UK close soon, it may be some time before they reopen permanently. There's lots of opportunity here for distance learning to be developed.

The childcare issue is a real one, no one will want to let the grandparents look after the kids, everyone knows the dangers, and not everyone has grandparents. I'm not at all sure what the possibilities are - people will take the kids into work I guess - or leave them to fend for themselves - children are very adaptable of course. But socially it's hard to see anything positive there. If it's right that closing schools doesn't have much of an impact on the epidemiology, it may be best to keep them open.

Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

SimonNZ

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 12:02:07 AM
Shocking that the teachers unions have been once again so toothless, their members have been placed right on the front line, many of them are over 60 or have health problems.

The Imperial College report which is the best model we have suggests that social isolation will have to persist for at least 18 months, until a vaccine becomes available. If the schools in the UK close soon, it may be some time before they reopen permanently. There's lots of opportunity here for distance learning to be developed.

The childcare issue is a real one, no one will want to let the grandparents look after the kids, everyone knows the dangers. I'm not at all sure what the possibilities are - people will have to take the kids into work I guess - children are very adaptable of course.

Interesting. But if children are together in an ad hoc workplace daycare, how is that different from being together in a classroom?

Mandryka

#183
Quote from: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 12:06:55 AM
Interesting. But if children are together in an ad hoc workplace daycare, how is that different from being together in a classroom?

I don't know if there's some epidemiological consequence of putting a lot of kids together in a school.


In the case of two parent families, one can stay at home of course. Like mat/pat leave. They'll be less well off but so be it. We're all going to be less well off, apart from Mother Courage.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

SimonNZ

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 12:13:20 AM
I don't know if there's some epidemiological consequence of putting a lot of kids together in a school.


I don't understand then. Why are schools being closed?

Mandryka

#185
Quote from: SimonNZ on March 17, 2020, 12:15:58 AM
I don't understand then. Why are schools being closed?

They havent been  closed in the UK, and the argument has always been that closing them doesn't have a significant positive impact on mortality, and indeed may have a significant negative impact if vulnerable people get roped into the child care.


There was an interview in British TV yesterday where the health minister was asked why people should isolate themselves if the kids are coming home from school and infecting them - they may as well go to the pub since everyone's already infected. The answer was all to do with protecting the vulnerable groups - grannies looking after kids etc -  everything is focused on stopping the vulnerable groups  from ever catching the virus,

You see how complicated these questions are! Can you imagine what it's like to have to make these decisions?  Our leaders are going to earn their wages this year!
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Crudblud

Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Marc

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 12:20:21 AM
They havent been  closed in the UK, and the argument has always been that closing them doesn't have a significant positive impact on mortality, and indeed may have a significant negative impact if vulnerable people get roped into the child care.


There was an interview in British TV yesterday where the health minister was asked why people should isolate themselves if the kids are coming home from school and infecting them - they may as well go to the pub since everyone's already infected. The answer was all to do with protecting the vulnerable groups - grannies looking after kids etc -  everything is focused on stopping the vulnerable groups  from ever catching the virus,

You see how complicated these questions are! Can you imagine what it's like to have to make these decisions?  Our leaders are going to earn their wages this year!

The Dutch government is (typically ;)) somewhere between Britain and the rest of Europe (like France, Spain, Italy): schools are closed, but there is no complete lockdown of/in the country. For the same reason as the Brits: protect the vulnerable groups, and let's give the stronger and healthy ones somehow the chance to build a natural 'group immunity' against the virus. (If I correct understandly, I'm not a medic.)

Florestan

Quote from: JBS on March 16, 2020, 05:03:23 PM
In the US (not sure about elsewhere) the question of closing schools is complicated by the fact that schools serve not only as effective day care but also provide one or more meals per schoolday to kids from poor families. For these kids school means healthy food, possibly the main meals of the day.  So local authorities have to come up with alternate means of distributing meals and alternate day care for parents with no alternative.

Quote from: vandermolen on March 16, 2020, 10:54:07 PM
for children from a poorer background their school meal may well be their only hot meal of the day.

Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Florestan

Quote from: Marc on March 17, 2020, 02:12:00 AM
The Dutch government is (typically ;)) somewhere between Britain and the rest of Europe (like France, Spain, Italy): schools are closed, but there is no complete lockdown of/in the country.

Same here in Romania. The state of emergency has been instituted, kindergartens, schools and universities stay closed until after Easter (April 19), all those who can work from home. As of yet, no lockdown or traffic restrictions, but I think a responsible person doesn't need an official restriction in order not to go any more to restaurants, pubs, clubs or to criss cross the city, the county or the country without any pressing reason.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Florestan

Quote from: Crudblud on March 17, 2020, 01:16:47 AM
Seems like I got me the ol' corona cough. Two mornings running I've had an irritation on my chest and throat, yesterday it cleared up as the day progressed but it is much more pronounced this morning. It's not a big deal in terms of self-isolation since I'm quite a solitary person and have worked from home for a number of years, but I am nonetheless concerned about disrupting family business with my viral shenanigans.

Oh, God! You should get in touch with the medical authorities in charge immediately and without delay. Best of luck and speedy recovery!
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

mc ukrneal

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:25:49 AM
Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o
Yes. There are children who come to school without having had food for breakfast and without bringing a meal with them. Most (many?) districts offer some form of free food to students who need it. But not all. And some teachers/school workers spend their own money so that the kids can eat.  Is it not shocking and truly unbelievable?
Be kind to your fellow posters!!

Florestan

Quote from: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 03:03:44 AM
Yes. There are children who come to school without having had food for breakfast and without bringing a meal with them. Most (many?) districts offer some form of free food to students who need it. But not all. And some teachers/school workers spend their own money so that the kids can eat.  Is it not shocking and truly unbelievable?

Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

mc ukrneal

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 03:08:30 AM
Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.
And if you want to see evidence of this, you can find clips of the Ellen show over the years where she gives away money to teachers and schools to help address this problem.
Be kind to your fellow posters!!

Florestan

Quote from: mc ukrneal on March 17, 2020, 03:12:55 AM
And if you want to see evidence of this, you can find clips of the Ellen show over the years where she gives away money to teachers and schools to help address this problem.

You told me it's true --- I need no more evidence (which I'm sure is widely available)

But really, this is not only shocking, it's also inacceptable.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Mandryka

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:25:49 AM
Wait a minute, Jeffrey and Jeffrey! Do you mean that in 2020 AD in two of the richest countries in the world there are still numerous families so poor that they can't even afford to feed their children and, absent the school meal(s), the poor kids would be starving?  :o :o :o

It may be negligent parenting rather than poverty.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Florestan

Quote from: Mandryka on March 17, 2020, 04:01:38 AM
It may be negligent parenting rather than poverty.

Please elaborate.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Crudblud

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 02:40:32 AM
Oh, God! You should get in touch with the medical authorities in charge immediately and without delay. Best of luck and speedy recovery!
The current advice given by the UK government is to only seek professional help if/when symptoms become severe. They are totally ignoring the WHO's simple advice of "test, test, test", instead telling people to simply stay at home if they exhibit any symptoms. The NHS has been in dire straits for some time now, and the government seems to be taking the cheapo approach to public health during this crisis also. Doubts as to Johnson's fitness for office will surely be redoubled many times over as the situation progresses.

The cough has steadily abated over the course of the morning, as it did yesterday, but it's too early to say one way or the other whether this is a pattern of escalation or simply "one of those things", in fact impossible since (afaik) the NHS is not at present offering or even able to offer routine testing. I'm still young and healthy so I'm not worried for myself, the real concern is that I will heighten the risk posed to my elderly grandmother, who relies on my mother and I for help with shopping and other errands. The plan at this point is simply to keep myself clean and out of other people's way as much as possible.

Mandryka

#198
Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 04:12:41 AM
Please elaborate.

Well they may not make sure that the children have a breakfast before going to school, for example. And in the evening they may just give them, for example, a cake to keep them quiet. Everyone here makes their own decisions about what to spend their money on, and how much attention to give their children.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

SimonNZ

Quote from: Florestan on March 17, 2020, 03:08:30 AM
Shocking and unbelievable, yes. I'm beggining to wonder whether Poju is actually right.

The story I heard was that unless you personally have a plan for fixing it then you shouldn't worry about it.

Remind me who said that.