Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

All UK schools closing on Friday but provision is being made for vulnerable children and the children of health workers to stay on. I'm going to have to deliver my lessons by remote access which I'm not looking forward to. I still think that the government, which I do not generally support, were right to keep the schools open as long as possible and I'm glad that there is increasing awareness of the plight of children from abusive homes. Schools may still provide meals for vulnerable children. All public examinations are cancelled. I told my young History class today to be aware, as historians, of the significance of the historical time, worrying though it is, that they are living through.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51952314

Who will look after the kids being provided for?

[T. D.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/virus-pandemic-exercise-got-one-thing-wrong-the-u-s-response

[Mandryka]

There may be an obvious answer to this and if so, I'm sorry. Can someone explain to me why the number of cases peaks? I mean, why is the graph a sombrero?  Why doesn't it go on until heard immunity is reached?

Is it because of its expected behaviour in Summer weather? Or is it just because of social distancing? Or because of heard immunity? Or what?

And why will there be subsequent cycles?

[Mandryka]

Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?

[Irons]

Italy in particular is suffering. The latest figures of deaths is shocking in the extreme.

[Irons]

Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?

I believe children are super-spreaders of the virus although they are not ill themselves.

[vandermolen]

Who will look after the kids being provided for?

Maybe in the maintained sector the Local Authority will provide food vouchers etc for children who, through poverty, were entitled to free school meals in term-time.

On a separate note I'm suspicious that the government will abuse the emergency powers which they are about to initiate.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

All UK schools closing on Friday but provision is being made for vulnerable children and the children of health workers to stay on. I'm going to have to deliver my lessons by remote access which I'm not looking forward to. I still think that the government, which I do not generally support, were right to keep the schools open as long as possible and I'm glad that there is increasing awareness of the plight of children from abusive homes. Schools may still provide meals for vulnerable children. All public examinations are cancelled. I told my young History class today to be aware, as historians, of the significance of the historical time, worrying though it is, that they are living through.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51952314

Scary and confusing times, I know.  I suspect that you've probably already done a bit of thinking on how you might (if needed) conduct online classes....and perhaps have had a talk with your feline?

On the news lately, images and today some interviews with college kids partying on the beaches of Florida, etc.  It's sinking in to a few of them, but me thinks too little too late!   

[vandermolen]

Scary and confusing times, I know.  I suspect that you've probably already done a bit of thinking on how you might (if needed) conduct online classes....and perhaps have had a talk with your feline?

On the news lately, images and today some interviews with college kids partying on the beaches of Florida, etc.  It's sinking in to a few of them, but me thinks too little too late!   

I expect that our cat Oliver will play a starring role during the online lessons as he enjoys walking all over the computer keyboard or lying down on it whenever I need to use it!

[Pohjolas Daughter]

I expect that our cat Oliver will play a starring role during the online lessons as he enjoys walking all over the computer keyboard or lying down on it whenever I need to use it!

So, no banishment (during classes) then?  Perhaps he could help to provide some needed levity/tension-relief?  After all, laughter is the best medicine.   

Good luck and let us know how it goes.

PD

[prémont]

There may be an obvious answer to this and if so, I'm sorry. Can someone explain to me why the number of cases peaks? I mean, why is the graph a sombrero?  Why doesn't it go on until heard immunity is reached?

It will, but the number of immune people becomes larger as they have had the infection, and at some point this will result in slower spreading of the virus, and the fewer new cases will appear. Therefore the number of infected people will decrease with time. But if an efficient vaccine isn't found, we will all get the infection eventually.

Is it because of its expected behaviour in Summer weather? Or is it just because of social distancing? Or because of heard immunity? Or what?

And why will there be subsequent cycles?

The belief is, that the virus will spread much slower in the summer, first and foremost due to more ultraviolet radiation from the sun, but this will stop again in the winter. It is the same with epidemics of influenza.

[Karl Henning]

Italy in particular is suffering. The latest figures of deaths is shocking in the extreme.

Horrible!

[prémont]

Another question. Why will closing schools slow the spread of the virus? I just don't understand, I think I must be missing something obvious. Is it to do with protecting teachers?

Children may spread the disease mutually without having many or any symptoms at all, and then they have contact with their parents and grand parents, which may contract the disease from the children.

[André]

I'm not sure if this has been posted, but it's a fascinating article - with « living graph » simulations. It explains how a spreading virus reacts to containment measures such as quarantine, social distancing.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

[Karl Henning]

I'm not sure if this has been posted, but it's a fascinating article - with « living graph » simulations. It explains how a spreading virus reacts to containment measures such as quarantine, social distancing.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

As opposed to:

A Boston doctor and five friends went to Miami. All six came back sick, at least four with the coronavirus.

[mc ukrneal]

I'm not sure if this has been posted, but it's a fascinating article - with « living graph » simulations. It explains how a spreading virus reacts to containment measures such as quarantine, social distancing.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

You beat me by just a few minutes. It's very helpful in explaining the basis behind it...

[drogulus]

     Testing has ramped up in NYC so the numbered of confirmed cases is over 1,871 from 813 yesterday. I expect we'll see similar jumps in hot spots around the country.

[greg]

Probably mentioned already, but looks like China and South Korea have already flattened the curve.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/


In the US the curve is going upward still, so probably the same pattern will exist for every country to where their curves will flatten later.

[Mandryka]

I believe children are super-spreaders of the virus although they are not ill themselves.

But they've already spread it to the adults they have contact with, parents and teachers.

[Mandryka]

Probably mentioned already, but looks like China and South Korea have already flattened the curve.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/


In the US the curve is going upward still, so probably the same pattern will exist for every country to where their curves will flatten later.

They've flattened the curve by isolating people, presumably if they let social contacts return to normal, the curve will take off again. There isn't as yet critical levels of immunity in the population.