Coronavirus thread

[aligreto]

To add to all this it it my daughter's birthday on Monday and we have invited her (we live in a quiet village) here to celebrate. However, she insists that we go up to London. She lives in West Dulwich which is one of the worst areas for Coronavirus infection. I explaned to her that this was like being invited for a birthday celebration in one of the main plague villages during the period of The Black Death. This at least amused some of my colleagues at work.

Out of concern for you my friend I would say do not go, Jeffrey.

[Florestan]

Out of concern for you my friend I would say do not go, Jeffrey.

You should stay home, Jeffrey, and so should your daughter. It would be unpleasant but safe.

Romania update: 277 confirmed cases, 0 deaths, 25 cured.

[Que]

My son works for a large company in the travel industry. He had someone on the phone yesterday demanding immediate refund of deposit paid for expensive holiday. It was explained to the client that the company were working through £millions worth of deposits which takes time and eventually his money will be returned. With this my son received a blast  - My business has gone. Today, I sacked a dozen employees and I am ruined - I want my (deleted) money NOW!

In the Netherlands, and I believe some other EU-countries, the travel industry has stopped refunding customers to avoid a total finacial collapse and are issuing vouchers instead.

Q

[pjme]

Jeffrey, this may get you and your daughter already in the right mood. Congrats! But do stay at home.

https://www.youtube.com/v/AWdVtDrnIEE

[Florestan]

Xi Jinping has buried the truth about coronavirus

The reaction to the outbreak has revealed the unreconstructed despotism of the Chinese state


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/the-reaction-to-the-outbreak-has-revealed-the-unreceonstructed-despotism-of-the-chinese-state

[Florestan]

Latest update Romania: 308 confirmed, 31 cured, 0 deaths.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

My son works for a large company in the travel industry. He had someone on the phone yesterday demanding immediate refund of deposit paid for expensive holiday. It was explained to the client that the company were working through £millions worth of deposits which takes time and eventually his money will be returned. With this my son received a blast  - My business has gone. Today, I sacked a dozen employees and I am ruined - I want my (deleted) money NOW!

Wow!      Is your son afraid of losing his job?  Even temporarily?

[Que]

The whole Corona crisis is a scary thing.

My wife and I visited NY two weeks ago, had an enjoyable stay and did all sorts of stuff, including attending a performance of....The Flying Dutchman.

In hindsight that was the last performance at the Metropolitan Opera before it closed down.
Fortunately, unlike my countryman who was doomed the sail the seas until the end of times, our scheduled return flight left only 5 hours before the US travel ban for Europe went into force and many flights were cancelled.
The relief we felt when taking our seats at the plane of our national pride and the oldest airline in the world, good old Royal Dutch Airlines (KLM) ....

The plane actually didn't carry many Dutch passengers  and was mainly filled with people from other European countries and Russia, scrambling to get home. Two Italians informed with the crew whether there were still any connecting flights to Italy.... there weren't...

I had a short chat with the flight attendant, she was worried about the future of the company and her job. We now know that the Dutch govt. will be covering 90% of wages of all affected companies for at least the next 3 months. And I have no doubt that if things become even worse, a company like KLM would be nationalized. We are very fortunate that the Dutch govt has very deep pockets.. ..

When we returned home, I got groceries and we have been home ever since.

My personal observations on the Corona crisis:

1. Everyone of us will catch the virus eventually, unless we are inoculated with a vaccine before we get infected. Predictions are that this first wave will continue until at least 60% of the general population has been exposed to the virus and has developed immunity that will slow it down. It is highly unlikely that a vaccine will become widely available before that moment in many countries. But who knows,  perhaps a miracle will happen....

2. All that can be done now, is buying time and slowing down the spreading of the virus. The purpose would be to "flatten the curve", so as to avoid a collapse of the health care system needed to attend to the medical needs of those who are severely affected. The paradox of "flattening the curve" is however that by limiting the intensity of the epidemic, its duration (of the first wave) will be extended.

3. An alternative strategy to "flattening the curve" is containment. This is a viable course of action when there is a limited or concentrated number of cases, which can be traced and isolated. This has been tried/done in South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong. When cases are numerous and widely spread, containment can only be achieved by a total lockdown - literally locking up people in their homes. If containment is successfully achieved, there is a continuous risk of recurring outbreaks and the need for continuing any lockdown measures indefinitely, or at least until a vaccine is available. Example of successful containment of a virus: Ebola. Unsuccessful: HIV.

3. The global economic consequences of this crisis will be enormous. For the 98% of us who will survive the virus, the economic fall out and disruption of international trade will be a much bigger problem than the actual health threat.
I hope a collapse of the financial system and international supply chains can be prevented. But a global economic depression seems pretty likely.

4. Because the virus has initially spread through international travelling to affluent countries in the Western World and Asia, our current focus is on those countries. My concern is however, what will happen when the virus will spread in poor countries without highly developed health care or effective government? Just think about many countries in Africa and Asia, poverty stricken Venezuela, war-torn Syria, etc. The effects cannot be anything other than devastating....

Q

[Judith]

Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

[marvinbrown]

It seems appropriate to have  a dedicated thread to COVID 19, given it's a worldwide event.
So here it is.

  Remarkable how genetic garbage (come on let's get real here viruses are genetic garbage!) can wreck so much havoc!

  marvin

[pjme]

Hi Judith, these are indeed very difficult and totally unusual & intimidating times. It is no wonder that we are feeling down. Especially since we don't know (and cannot predict) how long this crisis will last, nor how devastating its results will be.
So, let's focus on the positive aspects: the will to help, the courage and creativity of those who are already searching for solutions, the courage of all the people in the medical sector.
And do stay in contact with friends and family. And do post your thoughts here. Suggest music, talk about composers , musicians and performers, recordings.
Keep cool and stay positive!
Peter

[Karl Henning]

If you can believe it was laid off just before Christmas (company financially failing) found a better job, sold the house in California, rented a house in Houston, Texas where I will be working, am on payroll pending relocation. Movers are supposed to come on April 2, My wife and I had planned to drive with our young child to Houston, and did I mention my wife is pregnant?

Now, with confirmed cases growing exponentially in California, the governor has issued a "stay at home order," and effective next week we have no home. We are wondering if we will find travel forbidden, or travel hotels along the route shuttered.

Being stuck at home, watching Netflix and nervously checking dwindling checking accounts and 401Ks seems like paradise to me. I fully expect I could be dead before a month has past, and that is not the worst scenario I can imagine.

((distant hugs))

[Karl Henning]

Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

Coping as best I can: composing music, listening to lots of music, touching base with family and friends frequently.

[Daverz]

Hi Judith, these are indeed very difficult and totally unusual & intimidating times. It is no wonder that we are feeling down. Especially since we don't know (and cannot predict) how long this crisis will last, nor how devastating its results will be.
So, let's focus on the positive aspects: the will to help, the courage and creativity of those who are already searching for solutions, the courage of all the people in the medical sector.
And do stay in contact with friends and family. And do post your thoughts here. Suggest music, talk about composers , musicians and performers, recordings.
Keep cool and stay positive!
Peter

Time to catch up on cat videos...

https://www.youtube.com/v/4ArItwfAYyo

[aligreto]

Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

There is nothing unusual in what you are feeling. We all want things just to be normal again. That is a natural reaction in these kind of circumstances. You, like everybody, are looking for reassurance. Listen to the advice and follow the correct hygiene and social distancing protocols and stay safe. That is our number one priority. This will pass but it will take time, care, mental strength and the cooperation of all to get us through this. Be as strong as you can.

[greg]

There still seems to be no evidence of it affecting other animals. So just bats and humans? That's really weird.

[Irons]

In the Netherlands, and I believe some other EU-countries, the travel industry has stopped refunding customers to avoid a total finacial collapse and are issuing vouchers instead.

Q

Which in these times is a sensible policy. We have paid a deposit (same company) for a holiday in November with balance due in August. I am happy for the deposit to be carried over for the following year if necessary.
As far as holidays are concerned Cruises will take a massive hit. They were just becoming more and more popular and companies such as P&O and Virgin have spent millions building new ships to match demand. It will take decades for them to recover from this.

[Irons]

Wow!      Is your son afraid of losing his job?  Even temporarily?

Last Monday the company purchased 200 laptops and instructed staff to work from home. I think the whole world is afraid of losing their job, P.

[pjme]

There still seems to be no evidence of it affecting other animals. So just bats and humans? That's really weird.

it is very complicated, but for the moment the best information we have. Check chapter
"Natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer":

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

[DaveF]

Without being political, just wondering how you are all coping?
Must admit, getting me down. Not just the chance of catching illness itself but feel that life is on hold. No concerts, history talks, museums etc.
Am I feeling sorry for myself or anyone else feeling like I do?

Hi Judith,

Trying to keep going, as we all are, but agree it's deeply distressing and unsettling, and hard not to feel sorry for oneself.  I'm in the fortunate position of being in excellent health, my 60 years notwithstanding, having a guaranteed salary from my local government job and a house with no mortgage (albeit a second one that I'm trying to sell, with not surprisingly a complete lack of interest at the moment), so what it's like for those poor souls who have financial pressures on top of health worries I can't imagine.  Here in rural South Wales we haven't even seen the level of panic buying that has occurred elsewhere - the supermarket shelves are generally well-stocked, with only one or two shortage areas.  Although it has certainly been a day of "panic borrowing" in the library where I work.

I'm not that bothered about actually catching the virus - at least that would get it done with, and I'm fairly confident I'd survive without a problem.  The worry and concern spring more from the suspicion/certainty that those in charge have very little idea what is going on (and why should they? - it's never gone on before) and from the dread of being dependent for our future on the goodwill and selflessness of our fellow human beings, which with many notable exceptions seem to be generally wanting.  I cast around for the good news stories that I'm sure are out there, but there almost seems to be a conspiracy of silence - I read somewhere that new cases in China have fallen away almost to nothing, but try finding that statistic anywhere online.  Another small bit is that a cousin of mine in London, aged 39, has been suffering from it for 2 days and already feels much better.

Schubert's the man - had it worst of all and kept singing and dancing.

DF