Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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Florestan

Quote from: Que on March 21, 2020, 04:52:10 AM
Trump still calls this the "Chinese virus"... Perhaps someone should try to explain to him that the virus doesn't care?

I beg to differ. If the Chinese authorities had taken the whole damn thing seriously when it started and imposed draconian restrictions right from the beginning, they would have contained it locally and it would haven't spread across the whole world, especially Europe. They didn't because of their bloody fucking communism allied with their bloody fucking nationalism --- and now we are all in deep shit. I'm sorry, but this is a Chinese virus --- as opposed to the so-called Spanish Flu, which was not Spanish at all.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

drogulus

     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:



     
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Mandryka

Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 06:46:53 AM
Ask Boris Johnson.

A responsible government should reduce people's freedom long before the number of new cases increases; actually, if they do that early, the number of cases will increase nevertheless but not exponentially, and this is crucial. The idea is not to stop the epidemic, which is impossible, but to slow it down as much as possible, in order not to crush the medical system and to give scientists time to develop and test treatments and vaccins.

It's not so simple because you need the people to comply. Otherwise there'll be widespread civil disobedience. They will only comply when they "grok" the seriousness. 
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

drogulus

Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 06:52:08 AM
I beg to differ. If the Chinese authorities had taken the whole damn thing seriously when it started and imposed draconian restrictions right from the beginning, they would have contained it locally and it would haven't spread across the whole world, especially Europe. They didn't because of their bloody fucking communism allied with their bloody fucking nationalism --- and now we are all in deep shit. I'm sorry, but this is a Chinese virus --- as opposed to the so-called Spanish Flu, which was not Spanish at all.

     The virus thrives in an authoritarian environment in which doctors and health experts are threatened or at least told to shut up.

     
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JBS

Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 06:55:10 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:



   

Bear in mind that the Chinese figures assume
1)regional authorities in China are being honest with the national authorities
2) the national authorities ars being honest with the rest of the world.

Hollywood Beach Broadwalk

Mandryka

Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 06:55:10 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:



   

The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

drogulus

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)

     I do, and as testing is ramping up in the US we'll soon pass Spain in the number of cases.

     
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Que

Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 06:52:08 AM
I beg to differ. If the Chinese authorities had taken the whole damn thing seriously when it started and imposed draconian restrictions right from the beginning, they would have contained it locally and it would haven't spread across the whole world, especially Europe. They didn't because of their bloody fucking communism allied with their bloody fucking nationalism --- and now we are all in deep shit. I'm sorry, but this is a Chinese virus --- as opposed to the so-called Spanish Flu, which was not Spanish at all.

Off course, the virus originates in China and and the Chinese authorities bear a lot of responsibility for its spread.

However, the virus is not Chinese in the sense that it only affects China. The mistake that was made in the West is to think that it wouldn't affect us. Authorities outside of China, including the US, had indications in January that an alarming situation was developing in China.

Q

Florestan

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 06:58:23 AM
It's not so simple because you need the people to comply. Otherwise there'll be widespread civil disobedience. They will only comply when they "grok" the seriousness.

Rational, responsible, civic-conscious, altruistic people will comply. All other people must be forced to comply. There is no alternative. This is one of those hard times when teh choice is between personal freedom and the life of others. What do you choose?
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

premont

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

Precisely. And this is part of the confusion everywhere.

Quote from: Mandryka
(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)

Not worse than my English.
γνῶθι σεαυτόν

Florestan

Quote from: Que on March 21, 2020, 07:36:29 AM
Off course, the virus originates in China and and the Chinese authorities bear a lot of responsibility for its spread.

Precisely, and in this respect calling it a Chinese virus is neither mistaken nor racist --- it's simply stating a fact. Trump is wrong on a myriad other issues but on this one he's spot on.

Quotethe virus is not Chinese in the sense that it only affects China. The mistake that was made in the West is to think that it wouldn't affect us. Authorities outside of China, including the US, had indications in January that an alarming situation was developing in China.

Agreed 100%.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Kaga2

A very good explanation of how you attack an RNA virus, especially in the corona family

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/covid-19-the-biology-of-an-effective-therapy/

Most interesting is the bit about why they tried chloroquine.

Florestan

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

The number of officially confirmed cases in each country is most probably less than the total number of people infected.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

drogulus

Quote from: JBS on March 21, 2020, 07:03:12 AM
Bear in mind that the Chinese figures assume
1)regional authorities in China are being honest with the national authorities
2) the national authorities ars being honest with the rest of the world.

     I think the numbers are good enough to form an accurate picture. Right now I think the suppression factor is most evident in the U.S. and Iran, for related though not identical reasons, a matter of degree between strict v. "aspirational" authoritarianism.
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Mandryka

Quote from: Florestan on March 21, 2020, 07:45:35 AM
The number of officially confirmed cases in each country is most probably less than the total number of people infected.

Correct. And in some states most of the cases diagnosed are ones which are so serious they need medical intervention. So it's impossible to draw any conclusions from the ratio of deaths to detected cases. 
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Archaic Torso of Apollo

Quote from: drogulus on March 21, 2020, 06:55:10 AM
     As of this morning, here are the totals for cases and deaths:



   

Looking at this, what I'm wondering is: why does France have fewer cases than Germany, but almost 10X as many deaths?
formerly VELIMIR (before that, Spitvalve)

"Who knows not strict counterpoint, lives and dies an ignoramus" - CPE Bach

André

Probably depends if tests are done preventively, or post-facto, once symptoms have been detected.

Mandryka

#477
And on the number of ITU beds. But yes, Germany I think tests people with mild symptoms and isolates them; I'm pretty sure France only tests people whose symptoms are so severe they need to call emergency services.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

drogulus

Quote from: Archaic Torso of Apollo on March 21, 2020, 08:40:35 AM
Looking at this, what I'm wondering is: why does France have fewer cases than Germany, but almost 10X as many deaths?

     I almost commented on this very point, France and Germany, or in the US context, similar disparities among the states.

     Georgia and Michigan are experiencing rapid growth in recorded cases, faster now than NY state. Washington state appears to be leveling off.
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Pohjolas Daughter

Quote from: Mandryka on March 21, 2020, 07:04:27 AM
The problem is that testing is different in each country, so the number of detected cases is a different proportion of the number of actual cases in each state.

(Terrible English but you know what I mean!)
I was surprised at how high the number of cases were/are in Switzerland!
Pohjolas Daughter