Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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Kaga2

Quote from: André on March 21, 2020, 06:41:45 PM
Friday Belgium sealed its border with the Netherlands, and police turned away dutch tourists away after widely condemned 'rampages' in beaches, parks, stores, while locals were consigned to their homes.

I debate denialists on another site. What strikes me is no matter how often you tell them it isn't just the death rate that is a worry they never pay attention. It never occurs to them to consider the consequences of 50 or 60% of the country being ill, often seriously ill, at the same time. With no medicine.

We cannot have a permanent lockdown like some US states are doing, but we cannot just let it rip either.

Mandryka

Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Irons

My granddaughter has it! We now believe mum and both children caught the virus through a trip to Disney Paris three weeks ago. Thankfully a sky-high temperature didn't last long and she is now on the mend. Mum thought she and baby boy had a heavy cold but speaking to 111 they had the virus. She is now free to mix as she pleases but her husband, my son, as the only one of the family not to succumb is on lock down although he feels absolutely fine.
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

Mandryka

Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Pohjolas Daughter

Quote from: Irons on March 22, 2020, 02:16:16 AM
My granddaughter has it! We now believe mum and both children caught the virus through a trip to Disney Paris three weeks ago. Thankfully a sky-high temperature didn't last long and she is now on the mend. Mum thought she and baby boy had a heavy cold but speaking to 111 they had the virus. She is now free to mix as she pleases but her husband, my son, as the only one of the family not to succumb is on lock down although he feels absolutely fine.
Oh, dear!  Glad to hear that everyone has recovered and hope that your son continues to be in good health.  Curious though:  how were they able to diagnose just over the phone?  Couldn't it have been something different?  Just a bit confused here....

Anyway, I wish all of you the best health!

PD
Pohjolas Daughter

Que

Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2020, 01:54:59 AM
Today's Sunday Times



Interesting article here

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

Not surprising....

The Dutch government has been accused of a similar strategy: letting the virus run its course in a "controlled" way until the threshold for group immunity has been reached.

What is actually done now in most countries is supressing the rate in which the virus spreads. When - and as long as - the transmission rate is below 1:1, the total number of cases goes down. If successful, this will happen before the threshold of group immunity is reached. Although the build up of immunity is a gradual process: any level below the threshold would still contribute in slowing down another outbreak or next wave.

Q

Spineur

Serbia national orchestra plays Bella Ciao in support for Italians, in an amazing synchronized video-call.  This is very touching, I find

https://www.youtube.com/v/L63f5DdzYNg

Karl Henning

Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Pohjolas Daughter

Quote from: André on March 21, 2020, 06:41:45 PM
Friday Belgium sealed its border with the Netherlands, and police turned away dutch tourists away after widely condemned 'rampages' in beaches, parks, stores, while locals were consigned to their homes.
I'm curious as to where you read about 'rampages as I hadn't seen any stories about that?

Best wishes,

PD
Pohjolas Daughter

Pohjolas Daughter

Pohjolas Daughter

milk

I'm really confused about what's going on here in Japan. We were hit early with a few cases as there are usually many Chinese tourists here. The schools have been closed since February and attractions are also closed. The government seems to think Japan has been spared and is talking about letting schools reopen (at their usual time as this has been an extended spring break or, actually, a spring break that started early). As a country, the the numbers are not like Italy or Spain. However, testing is fairly low, from what I understand, and the Osaka area, where I live, has seen a small spike. Experts have been asking the question of why Japan hasn't been hit harder. The answer is either a mishmash of conjecture or that Japan is about to see a second devastating wave. Meanwhile it looks like my job, university, is on hold until perhaps May. I really didn't take things seriously early on and now I'm panicking a little. I see many people out and about acting normally, even though schools and amusements are closed. For example, the playgrounds are quite crowded with kids (and I took my kid a few times I'm ashamed to admit). I'm worried that many of us here in Japan didn't take this seriously enough. I guess lots of people are in the same boat but how are we all going to survive financially? I'm less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.


drogulus

     I'm paying attention to confirmed v. active cases. China and S. Korea are seeing a drop in active cases. In countries with rising active case totals, almost all counties, even with expanded testing there is a noticeable slowing of the rate of growth in some counties hit hard early. Is this "herd semi-immunity"?
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Karl Henning

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 06:02:05 AM
I did hear that over the news too.   :)

Best wishes,

PD

Good news, as these folks find themselves willy-nilly basically on the front lines.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Kaga2

Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2020, 01:54:59 AM
Today's Sunday Times



Interesting article here

https://www.buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/10-days-that-changed-britains-coronavirus-approach

I fear he is right, and that might actually be the best approach. It was not a good plan to follow, because it bet the farm on several unproven assumptions and was far too risky. I am glad they changed course. But that doesn't mean it couldn't turn out to have been right.

Several cases in town here. Including one MacDonald's worker, which is worrying.

Karl Henning

Quote from: Kaga2 on March 22, 2020, 07:21:47 AM
I fear he is right, and that might actually be the best approach. It was not a good plan to follow, because it bet the farm on several unproven assumptions and was far too risky. I am glad they changed course. But that doesn't mean it couldn't turn out to have been right.

Several cases in town here. Including one MacDonald's worker, which is worrying.

Gotta break some eggs to make an omelette isn't really a good look, though.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

pjme

https://www.hln.be/video/hoogstraten-sluit-nederlandse-sluipwegen-af-met-containers~p136410

Belgian police controls and barricades the Belgo-Dutch border short cuts / Antwerp province. The main roads stay open.

Kaga2

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 07:24:58 AM
Gotta break some eggs to make an omelette isn't really a good look, though.
No. I was impressed by Johnson's bottle, to use a Brit word, in putting the plan forward, and I was impressed by how well thought out it was by his science advisors. But I was also appalled. What if we can find a way to reduce the area under the curve after all? Then the plan has possibly killed hundreds of thousands. And it relied on several other unproven assumptions too.

Marc

#518
Quote from: Que on March 22, 2020, 04:22:13 AM
Not surprising....

The Dutch government has been accused of a similar strategy: letting the virus run its course in a "controlled" way until the threshold for group immunity has been reached.

What is actually done now in most countries is supressing the rate in which the virus spreads. When - and as long as - the transmission rate is below 1:1, the total number of cases goes down. If successful, this will happen before the threshold of group immunity is reached. Although the build up of immunity is a gradual process: any level below the threshold would still contribute in slowing down another outbreak or next wave.

Q

I can see the idea behind the herd (semi-) immunity thought. But the way things are developing now, with the neglecting behaviour of far too many Dutch citizens, I guess that we are going to switch to the suppressing variant, too.
Read today about a police officer in Leiden, who was warning a group of teenagers who were grouping together in a park, playing football, sitting closely next to each other and such. These youngsters told him that they don't get their 'reliable' Corona information from the government and Health Organisations websites, but from different internet sources. And apparently their 'reliable' sources tell them completely different 'truths'. According the the police officer, these kids did not have a clue about what was going on. "Can't we play football anymore?"
I guess this also goes for many of their parents. It was crowded again this afternoon on the Scheveningen boulevard. Even boxing clinics were given on the beach.

And it's not just the young by the way. Yesterday, in the super market, it was mainly the elderly people who grouped together to discuss the sitation. They made no effort at all to keep at distance from each other and from other people. I shook my head a little and one grey showed me a grin, I have no idea why. Maybe he wanted to say: hey dude, we are going to die soon any way?

Well, as the Dutch themselves use to say: schiet mij maar lek.

drogulus


     Herd immunity is a natural consequence you don't need a strategy to implement. The herd, or what's left of it, will be immune unless a dramatic new way of treating the virus short circuits the process until we get a vaccine.

     Immunity and suppression should work together. Both will buy time.
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