Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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greg

Quote from: milk on March 22, 2020, 06:42:15 AM
I'm really confused about what's going on here in Japan. We were hit early with a few cases as there are usually many Chinese tourists here
At least I'm not the only one who noticed how many Chinese tourists there are.  :D

I don't see the data on Japan, but Korea has somewhat flattened the curve already, so probably Japan has as well. Quite an impressively low death count- especially considering the old population. I'm a bit confused on this also. Seems like it couldn't be accurate.


Quote from: milk on March 22, 2020, 06:42:15 AM
I'm less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.
Same here.
Wagie wagie get back in the cagie

Marc

#521
Quote from: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 07:42:13 AM
     Herd immunity is a natural consequence you don't need a strategy to implement. The herd, or what's left of it, will be immune unless a dramatic new way of treating the virus short circuits the process until we get a vaccine.

     Immunity and suppression should work together. Both will buy time.

Yeah, of course. Herd immunity is a natural process, not a strategy. But if we let it just go like that, then the pressure on medicare and society gets far too high. The death toll is gonna be very high. I guess that's not what we want. In the 'modern and civilized country' that I live in, there is already a shortage of Intensive Care chambers and beds in hospitals in the south. So governments and health institutions have to come up with a strategy. As Que said, a total lockdown might flatten and lower the curve before the herd immunity is 'spread'. And things might start all over again.

drogulus

Quote from: Marc on March 22, 2020, 08:28:52 AM
Yeah, of course. Herd immunity is a natural process, not a strategy. But if we let it just go like that, then the pressure on medicare and society gets far too high.

     That's how I see it. If you can arrange for deaths to occur later, there will be fewer deaths. Also, herd immunity is a matter of degree, so there are more and more people who got the virus, never developed symptoms and are no longer spreading it. The virus slows as it hits more individual firebreaks that were never tested. We don't know about them, there's no way of counting them.
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Karl Henning

Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Mandryka

Quote from: milk on March 22, 2020, 06:42:15 AM
I guess lots of people are in the same boat but how are we all going to survive financially? I'm less worried about getting sick than economies and societies collapsing.

Yes, and in all fairness to the British government, they appear to be trying to deal with this.

You can't ask people to isolate themselves unless you give them the means to do so.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

drogulus

     A region in Japan launched its own coronavirus fight. It's now called a 'model' in local action.

Japanese bureaucrats are famous for following the rules. But Japan's southwestern region of Kansai is a little bit different, a place where people take pride in their independence. Wakayama prefecture has an independent politician in the governor's office, Yoshinobu Nisaka, who said he doesn't follow government guidelines and prefers to take an "original approach."

     I don't care how failing or lamestream the tentpole news media are. I don't play that game. I want the news, so I go where news is, where standards are high and today confirms what I read the day before and on and on until the News Heat Death.

     What happened in Wakayama prefecture is a part of the story in Japan. Now I know a little about it. I read it in the WaPo.
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vandermolen

Quote from: Irons on March 22, 2020, 02:16:16 AM
My granddaughter has it! We now believe mum and both children caught the virus through a trip to Disney Paris three weeks ago. Thankfully a sky-high temperature didn't last long and she is now on the mend. Mum thought she and baby boy had a heavy cold but speaking to 111 they had the virus. She is now free to mix as she pleases but her husband, my son, as the only one of the family not to succumb is on lock down although he feels absolutely fine.
Hope it all works out well Lol.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Iota

Quote from: Mandryka on March 22, 2020, 10:23:24 AM
Yes, and in all fairness to the British government, they appear to be trying to deal with this.

You can't ask people to isolate themselves unless you give them the means to do so.

I agree with this. I think Rishi Sunak has broadly responded well to the maelstrom. However as a self employed person, I am in a category he seems to have left out of any plans for support. As my income abruptly dried up last week, I am hoping that I can either find a way round the impasse, or that or I can last until the situation eases, the latter being rather fanciful.

While Sunak seems to have responded strongly (except for me and others like me), Boris Johnson is looking somewhat dazed in the headlights and sounding as if for the first time he's just realising the job is not all about him. I do hope he ups his game because it would help everybody. As I said earlier I think a big part of the battle is going to be psychological, and I think he could play a positive part in that.

André


Chancellor Angela Merkel in self-isolation. she received a vaccine (not for Covid-19) from a doctor who tested positive 2 days later.

Senator Rand Paul (USA) and singer Placido Domingo tested positive for Covid-19.

drogulus

#530
         
     

     Before Angela went into isolation, she went shopping, observing protocol by staying away from other shoppers. Ausgezeichnet!
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SimonNZ

Quote from: André on March 22, 2020, 12:11:18 PM
Chancellor Angela Merkel in self-isolation. she received a vaccine (not for Covid-19) from a doctor who tested positive 2 days later.

Senator Rand Paul (USA) and singer Placido Domingo tested positive for Covid-19.

Is that the same Rand Paul who recently stalled passing of an economic rescue package by trying to attach nonsense amendments to it?

Karl Henning

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 22, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
Is that the same Rand Paul who recently stalled passing of an economic rescue package by trying to attach nonsense amendments to it?

The very same.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

SimonNZ

Our PM just announced we've got 48 hours to prepare for a 4-week full lockdown.

Karl Henning

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 22, 2020, 05:53:57 PM
Our PM just announced we've got 48 hours to prepare for a 4-week full lockdown.

Good luck!
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Ratliff

#535
Quote from: drogulus on March 22, 2020, 07:42:13 AM
     Herd immunity is a natural consequence you don't need a strategy to implement. The herd, or what's left of it, will be immune unless a dramatic new way of treating the virus short circuits the process until we get a vaccine.

     Immunity and suppression should work together. Both will buy time.

Yes, but the term "herd immunity" is usually used to refer to vaccine conferred immunity (possibly in combination with some natural immunity).

The disease has a characteristic time coarse. You are infected, after maybe 5 days you exhibit mild symptoms, after 10 days, maybe still mild, maybe you feel so bad you can't get out of bed. By 14-21 days there's a 1-2% chance you're dead, otherwise you're probably recovering. If you're still alive at 30 days you are probably immune to reinfection. If exposed again you won't get sick and spread if further. Probably you are contagious after 3 days, until you recover. I gather that during the time people are walking around, not knowing how sick they are, they infect another 3 or 4 people.

If you do really strong isolation as the Chinese seem to have done you can reach a point where a sick person is unlikely to give the disease to anyone else. People are restricted to their homes, the economy is just turned off and some army unit delivers a package of rations to you once a week. Maybe a person only has a 10% chance of giving the disease to someone and week by week infections go from 100,000, to 10,000, 1,000, 100, 10, 1. At that point the disease is extinguished, but most people have never had the virus and there is no general immunity. It can roar back, but at least you know what you are facing and are in a situation where you can trace every new infection one by one and stop it. Then they can turn the economy back on.

In the U.S. it seems like no one is imagining that level of control. The social distancing, shelter-at-home orders probably will only reduce transmission to a moderate degree. Maybe an infected person is, on average, giving it to 1.5 other people in the course of their illness instead of 3 or 4. The disease still grows exponentially, but slower. The health care system is not completely overwhelmed. In the end, essentially everyone has gotten the disease and has either died or acquired immunity. But you haven't saved the entire population from taking that 1-2% chance of dying. Maybe the best result is you slow it down enough that a vaccine is found before the epidemic runs its course. But the epidemic happens in slow motion and the economy is shuttered for a longer time. Deciding how strong an intervention is ideal is not a simple problem.

The desirable form of herd immunity is when you get it from a vaccine, without taking the risk of dying of the disease in order to get immunity.

pjme

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on March 22, 2020, 09:31:17 AM
"Let the jungle in!"

Rather not, I'd say. Animals should not eat junk food, let alone plastic...

https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/science/97811/research-urban-junk-food-diet-is-bad-for-city-birds-microbiota-fibre-gut-bacteria-intestinal-flora/

During a visit to Indonesia (at least 20 years ago) I already saw deer, apes and raccoon like animals scavenge dustbins and plastic garbage bags...

Irons

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 04:08:08 AM
Oh, dear!  Glad to hear that everyone has recovered and hope that your son continues to be in good health.  Curious though:  how were they able to diagnose just over the phone?  Couldn't it have been something different?  Just a bit confused here....

Anyway, I wish all of you the best health!

PD

Not as confused as me, P. The mum had no idea she had the virus until phoning 111. Their instructions are clear she, with baby, can go out. My granddaughter is quarantined for one week, my son for two. 
You must have a very good opinion of yourself to write a symphony - John Ireland.

I opened the door people rushed through and I was left holding the knob - Bo Diddley.

vandermolen

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 22, 2020, 04:08:08 AM
Oh, dear!  Glad to hear that everyone has recovered and hope that your son continues to be in good health.  Curious though:  how were they able to diagnose just over the phone?  Couldn't it have been something different?  Just a bit confused here....

Anyway, I wish all of you the best health!

PD

From me too Lol.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

vandermolen

Quote from: Irons on March 21, 2020, 09:11:19 AM
I do not think it naive, Jeffrey. Working from home, when possible, needed a trigger this is a thunderbolt! Why would companies pay millions for offices in the capitals of the world when they can perform just as effectively with modern communications without? As you say, this would result in less pollution and stress.
I count myself a part of the lucky generation - missed the war, swinging sixties, cheap mortgages and excellent healthcare. Our kids have it much harder. So time for us to get through this, in one piece hopefully.
Thanks Lol.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).