Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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SimonNZ

Quote from: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 12:34:06 AM
"Slightly" more? Ask Italy! Ask Spain! Heck, ask US as of late! This bloody virus is much more contagious than a common flu, and that's the biggest problem.

I don't know who this Neil Ferguson is but this statement makes me clear he's either an idiot or a liar.

Neil Ferguson: coronavirus expert who is working on despite symptoms
Epidemiologist is taking on a marathon of mathematical modelling at sprint speed

Florestan

Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Mandryka

Let me mention something which crossed my mind, it may be a mistaken impression, but the Church is silent about this! And as far as I can see so are the Muslim, Hindu and Jewish equivalents. Religions are traditionally there to help us through, but as far as I can see, they've taken a back seat on this one. Is this because God's finally kicked the bucket?
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Florestan

Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 01:19:20 AM
Let me mention something which crossed my mind, it may be a mistaken impression, but the Church is silent about this!

Which Church you mean? The Pope and the RCC have regularly spoken about the situation and held many divine offices and prayers. Two days ago an international ceremony was officiated at Fatima, Portugal. Today the Pope will officiate a special liturgy in the St. Peter's Square, no public attendance of course. The Romanian Orthodox Church and the Roman Catholic Archbishoprics in Romania have done the same, for two weks now.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

SimonNZ

Quote from: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 01:17:13 AM
Thanks. My comment still stands. "Slightly" more, good grief!

"Slightly more" he meant than the already horrible figure he modeled for Britain even with lockdown, which he put at 20,000 vs an estimated half million with the "herd immunity" approach.

Florestan

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 27, 2020, 01:30:26 AM
"Slightly more" he meant than the already horrible figure he modeled for Britain even with lockdown, which he put at 20,000 vs an estimated half million with the "herd immunity" approach.

I don't get it. If he initially estimated 20,000 and then corrected to half million, then an increase from 20,000 to 500,000 is hardlly "slightly", it's dramatic. If he intially estimated 500,000 and then corrected to 20,000 the phrase makes no sense whatever.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

premont

Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 01:19:20 AM
Is this because God's finally kicked the bucket?

No, on the contrary he is swinging a cat.
γνῶθι σεαυτόν

Que

Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 01:19:20 AM
Let me mention something which crossed my mind, it may be a mistaken impression, but the Church is silent about this! And as far as I can see so are the Muslim, Hindu and Jewish equivalents. Religions are traditionally there to help us through, but as far as I can see, they've taken a back seat on this one. Is this because God's finally kicked the bucket?

No worries, there is a magical holy crucifix to protect Rome:



Pope Francis prays ast San Marcello al Corso church in Rome, home to a crucifix which believers say helped to end an outbreak of the plague in 1522

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/16/europe/pope-francis-prayer-coronavirus-plague-crucifix-intl/index.html

Q

SimonNZ

Quote from: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 01:38:20 AM
I don't get it. If he initially estimated 20,000 and then corrected to half million, then an increase from 20,000 to 500,000 is hardlly "slightly", it's dramatic. If he intially estimated 500,000 and then corrected to 20,000 the phrase makes no sense whatever.

500,000 was his model for the do nothing and let the elderly and sick just die approach.

20,000 was his model for the social distancing and lockdown approach - which he revised slightly.

Mandryka

Quote from: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 01:30:13 AM
Which Church you mean? The Pope and the RCC have regularly spoken about the situation and held many divine offices and prayers. Two days ago an international ceremony was officiated at Fatima, Portugal. Today the Pope will officiate a special liturgy in the St. Peter's Square, no public attendance of course. The Romanian Orthodox Church and the Roman Catholic Archbishoprics in Romania have done the same, for two weks now.

OK it's just me who hasn't picked up on it. It's interesting philosophically of course, because it's The Problem of Evil.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Florestan

#790
Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 01:53:42 AM
OK it's just me who hasn't picked up on it. It's interesting philosophically of course, because it's The Problem of Evil.

Yes. Why does an omnipotent and benevolent God allow evil to exist? Unsolvable in human terms.

Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Que

The high quality contributions on Corona from The Financial Times are free to read:

https://www.ft.com/coronavirusfree

The latest numbers: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Q

vandermolen

Boris Johnson has now tested positive for Coronavirus.
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

Florestan

Quote from: vandermolen on March 27, 2020, 03:29:11 AM
Boris Johnson has now tested positive for Coronavirus.

Got it from Charles, I presume.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

BasilValentine

#794
Quote from: greg on March 26, 2020, 06:41:47 PM
Is it really trying to take a clip of him saying "I like this stuff" to make it seem like he likes the virus? LOL.

No, it's not. In the context of the ad it's clear he is bragging about his mastery of epidemiology, that experts are surprised at his expertise. Moreover, he did clearly state that the coronavirus crisis was a democrat hoax.

Pohjolas Daughter

Quote from: vandermolen on March 27, 2020, 12:45:00 AM
Yesterday I had to teach my first 'online lesson'. At one point it all went horribly wrong and instead of showing them a painting by Délacroix I showed them a full list of my private school emails!
::)
Hang in there Jeffrey; things will get better!

Trust that Kitty hasn't (Yet?) learned how to tap dance on your keyboard?  ;)

Best wishes,

PD
Pohjolas Daughter

Kaga2

Quote from: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 12:34:06 AM
"Slightly" more? Ask Italy! Ask Spain! Heck, ask US as of late! This bloody virus is much more contagious than a common flu, and that's the biggest problem.

I don't know who this Neil Ferguson is but this statement makes me clear he's either an idiot or a liar.

You are misunderstanding what he said and misunderstanding what he means by transmissible. He did the initial UK model predicting 500k dead if no action was taken. He recently ran a new model to assess the impact of the UK lockdown. Under lockdown his model says 20k dead. This was misrepresented by idiots as him backtracking and disavowing the earlier prediction. So he had to clarify to stop their lies. In his clarification he said the virus seems even more transmissible than previously thought.
In short he is saying two things. If you don't take effective measures it will swamp you, and so far the British measures seem effective.

Florestan

Quote from: SimonNZ on March 27, 2020, 01:48:05 AM
500,000 was his model for the do nothing and let the elderly and sick just die approach.

20,000 was his model for the social distancing and lockdown approach - which he revised slightly.

Quote from: Kaga2 on March 27, 2020, 06:00:59 AM
You are misunderstanding what he said and misunderstanding what he means by transmissible. He did the initial UK model predicting 500k dead if no action was taken. He recently ran a new model to assess the impact of the UK lockdown. Under lockdown his model says 20k dead. This was misrepresented by idiots as him backtracking and disavowing the earlier prediction. So he had to clarify to stop their lies. In his clarification he said the virus seems even more transmissible than previously thought.
In short he is saying two things. If you don't take effective measures it will swamp you, and so far the British measures seem effective.

Okay, guys, I stand corrected. My apologies to Mr. Ferguson for having publicly insulted him.  :D

I mistook for him for a quasi-denialist and I have no patience for such people.

Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Kaga2

Quote from: Florestan on March 27, 2020, 07:05:03 AM
Okay, guys, I stand corrected. My apologies to Mr. Ferguson for having publicly insulted him.  :D

I mistook for him for a quasi-denialist and I have no patience for such people.
I spent hours yesterday arguing with denialists who were lying about what this guy said. I just assumed everyone knew the headlines. I thought it would help to post his own words  :)

The denialists really worry me. Not because they will make policy, they won't, but because they will convince people the danger is overstated. Then you get people not following the "distancing" or lockdown or quarantine or whatever we call it.

We do need a new word! None of them quite fit this quite new situation.

drogulus

Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 01:53:42 AM
OK it's just me who hasn't picked up on it. It's interesting philosophically of course, because it's The Problem of Evil.

     You can't play baseball without a concept of baseball. You can't play evil without a concept of evil.

     You evaluate a concept according to what use you can make of it. No inhuman solution will arrive to rescue us from the imperfections of our own concept use. Like money, another such concept, it's endogenous.

Quote from: Kaga2 on March 27, 2020, 07:29:11 AM


We do need a new word! None of them quite fit this quite new situation.


     Eeeeeeeviiiiillll!!!

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