Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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Florestan

Quote from: ritter on March 27, 2020, 10:10:46 AM
I read about that in the news....really!  :)

Then jokes aside I'de better take the offer while it lasts.  :laugh:
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

BasilValentine


Florestan

Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

drogulus

Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 09:35:07 AM
I find this the most disturbing of questions.



     Evil is not a problem for termites even though their sociability is a necessary feature for an evil concept to apply. The sufficient condition is the kind of consciousness involved in human level sociability. We find concepts like good and evil useful, but that use function isn't a recognition of a disembodied "real evil" that can't be solved.

     Lions are not in a condition where they can't recognize real evil out there in the world, any more than they are unaware of "real baseball". Lion games don't have concepts in them.

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greg

I heard that stimulus package just got approved (for the US). Hopefully other countries are doing the same.
Wagie wagie get back in the cagie

JBS


Hollywood Beach Broadwalk

Mandryka

Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Mandryka

Has anyone got a model which says by age

% with disease
% of above needing hospitalisation
% of above needing ventilation
% of above surviving with no long term consequences
% of above surviving with important long term consequences
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

premont

γνῶθι σεαυτόν

Karl Henning

Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Florestan

Quote from: Mandryka on March 27, 2020, 11:53:19 AM
Has anyone got a model which says by age

% with disease
% of above needing hospitalisation
% of above needing ventilation
% of above surviving with no long term consequences
% of above surviving with important long term consequences

Not me. And I wouldn't want a model but an official statistics, split by age groups and corrected for pre-existent serious, even life-threatening, condition(s). Drogulus has provided many pages ago one such, although apparently not corrected for those factors.

From what I've seen and learned on the media during the last two weeks, the mortality in itself is (not very much higher) than usual but the contagiousness is, very much so --- and this is the biggest problem. Imagine 10,000 cases spread over a few months or the same amount spread over just one month.
Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

North Star

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
QuoteSo far this flu season, about 1% of people in the United States have developed symptoms severe enough to be hospitalized. And the overall hospitalization rate in the U.S. this season is 61 hospitalizations per 100,000 people.

....

Another recent study, considered the largest on COVID-19 cases to date, researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Protection, analyzed 44,672 confirmed cases in China between Dec. 31, 2019 and Feb. 11, 2020. Of those cases, 80.9% (or 36,160 cases) were considered mild, 13.8% (6,168 cases) severe and 4.7% (2,087) critical. "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure," the researchers wrote in the paper published in China CDC Weekly.

A recent study of COVID-19 cases in the United States found that, among 4,226 reported cases , at least 508 people, or 12% were hospitalized. However, the study, published March 18 in the CDC journal Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) is preliminary, and the researchers note that data on hospitalizations were missing for a substantial number of patients.

It's important to note that, because respiratory viruses cause similar symptoms, it can be difficult to distinguish different respiratory viruses based on symptoms alone, according to WHO.

Death rate

The death rate from seasonal flu is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

Though the death rate for COVID-19 is unclear, most research suggests it is higher than that of the seasonal flu.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. Another study of about 1,100 hospitalized patients in China, published Feb. 28 in the New England Journal of Medicine, found that the overall death rate was slightly lower, around 1.4%.

Still, the death rate for COVID-19 appears to vary by location and an individual's age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%, according to the China CDC Weekly study. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it's 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. No deaths in children under 9 have been reported.

A report published March 13 in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases adjusted for the potential time delay between hospitalization and death among cases in China. The authors estimated that, as of Feb. 11, the death rate from COVID-19 was as high as 12% in Wuhan, 4% in Hubei Province and 0.9% in the rest of China.

In the CDC's MMWR study, 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU), and 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 were among adults aged 65 years and older.

Virus transmission

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19.  Preliminary studies have estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be between 2 and 3, according to the JAMA review study published Feb. 28. This means each infected person has spread the virus to an average of 2 to 3 people.
"Everything has beauty, but not everyone sees it." - Confucius

My photographs on Flickr

BasilValentine


vandermolen

Quote from: Pohjolas Daughter on March 27, 2020, 05:15:10 AM
Hang in there Jeffrey; things will get better!

Trust that Kitty hasn't (Yet?) learned how to tap dance on your keyboard?  ;)

Best wishes,

PD

Thanks PD. I'm aware of and grateful for your supportive comments. My four Year 13 students, during an informal chat online, asked to see the cat so I had to swing the laptop round so that they could see him. Their comment was 'He's enormous!'
"Courage is going from failure to failure without losing enthusiasm" (Churchill).

'The test of a work of art is, in the end, our affection for it, not our ability to explain why it is good' (Stanley Kubrick).

greg

Quote from: greg on March 27, 2020, 10:46:42 AM
I heard that stimulus package just got approved (for the US). Hopefully other countries are doing the same.
Anyone else out there who is able to WFH and still getting $1200?

Me! 🤩😆

...well at least for some it's a stimulus. But for a lot of people, they will have to wait weeks, miss this month's rent, and spend it all for next month. Seems there should be more to this if there isn't already...
Wagie wagie get back in the cagie

André

Interesting article on the USA government's response to the Covid19:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-us-is-still-exceptional--but-now-for-its-incompetence/2020/03/26/4d6d1ade-6f9b-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html


. I find it hard to fault any specific country's response to something that is unprecedented (re: the spanish flu epidemic: if something's older than most people alive, it's too ancient to serve as a benchmark). However, we will have lots of hard earned lessons to learn from what went wrong in many different places. Theses will be written for the coming decades... :-X

Ratliff

Quote from: greg on March 27, 2020, 01:46:38 PM
Anyone else out there who is able to WFH and still getting $1200?

Me! 🤩😆

...well at least for some it's a stimulus. But for a lot of people, they will have to wait weeks, miss this month's rent, and spend it all for next month. Seems there should be more to this if there isn't already...

The state of California has banned all evictions, so you don't pay your rent. Your landlord goes bankrupt, but can get a business loan. How you get food is another thing.

Pohjolas Daughter

#837
Quote from: vandermolen on March 27, 2020, 01:23:03 PM
Thanks PD. I'm aware of and grateful for your supportive comments. My four Year 13 students, during an informal chat online, asked to see the cat so I had to swing the laptop round so that they could see him. Their comment was 'He's enormous!'
Oh, my!  Trust by that that they meant he has a big frame vs. he's been eating too much kibble?   :)

So how old are four years...trying to remember how your educational system works!   :-[  May I ask too as to what subjects you teach them (or try to in any event  ;) ).

I had hoped at one point in time to acquire a male BSH kitten or cat...instead ended up with a female on the small size.  She was still a great kitty...sweet, smart, affectionate....and an exceptional mouser! 

Best,

PD

p.s.  Almost forgot to post this (re the thread):  At least there is some tiny bit of good coming out of the crisis:  https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52065140

Maybe it will help us all to consider the ramifications of how we are living and working and how it effects the environment and give us some impetus to change more things once this is over?  One can only hope....
Pohjolas Daughter

greg

Quote from: Baron Scarpia on March 27, 2020, 02:50:45 PM
The state of California has banned all evictions, so you don't pay your rent. Your landlord goes bankrupt, but can get a business loan. How you get food is another thing.
That's good considering the price of rent there. So what they get ($1200 for most) should more than cover food and regular expenses. They should do the same in NYC.
Wagie wagie get back in the cagie