Coronavirus thread

[Karl Henning]

This one?


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/22/coronavirus-blood-clots/

I read it today, too.

Aye.

[Karl Henning]

Yup!

[JBS]

Trump is not usually this quick to throw people under the bus.  Hopefully the rest of the governors will notice this.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/politics/trump-pence-georgia-governor-brian-kemp/index.html

[André]

Another perfect phone call...

[SimonNZ]

'We hope to be a model': the California town testing every resident for coronavirus
Bolinas, north of San Francisco, aims to be the first US town to achieve the feat as it seeks to learn more about transmission

[XB-70 Valkyrie]

Hullo Bolinas

[Mandryka]

The impact of COVID on cancer.

https://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2020/04/21/how-coronavirus-is-impacting-cancer-services-in-the-uk/

[Mandryka]

Hullo Bolinas

Chopin op 45 prelude rip off.

[Mandryka]

Las Vegas Mayor offers city as "control group", "we offer to be a control group" to see how many people die without social distancing.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1253041723510587394

She makes me think of Eddie Izard

https://www.youtube.com/v/hSOrBqjrjRc

[Karl Henning]

Las Vegas Mayor offers city as "control group", "we offer to be a control group" to see how many people die without social distancing.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1253041723510587394

She makes me think of Eddie Izard

https://www.youtube.com/v/hSOrBqjrjRc

what, did she have a referendum?

[Mandryka]

Here's an interesting person from Miami

https://www.youtube.com/v/sHn0m9tyscE

[BasilValentine]

^ ^ ^ It's satire, although, were it real, Jacksonville FL would be a likely place to find it.

[Mirror Image]

What comes to people being hit by this pandemic, that's on Americans themselves. They have voted for right-wingers for decades and been happy with weak social safety nets. This is what happens when these safety nets are needed, but they don't exist. Countries with stronger social safety nets are in much better situation in this regard.

Have you no decency whatsoever? How about saying something like you hope the United States is able to overcome this coronavirus pandemic? No, you would never say this, because I think you secretly have nothing but hatred for Americans and the United States. In the future, you will be ignored, because you're not even worth spitting on.

[Karl Henning]

It's too soon to declare victory over coronavirus, expert says
By Martin Finucane Globe Staff,Updated April 22, 2020, 4:18 p.m.

People may be getting weary of being cooped up at home and heartened by reports of a flattening curve. But it's too soon to declare victory against the coronavirus pandemic, according to a Harvard epidemiology expert.

"I think that there are understandable anxieties, and obviously there are understandable different approaches to what people characterize as a lockdown," said William Hanage, a professor at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health.

But he said in a briefing Wednesday with reporters, "I think that we need to accept that we are in the early stages of a pandemic. ... I would like to emphasize the pandemic is only just getting started."

Hanage said some areas may seem to be moving past the peak of the surge, but said, "It's important to note that that decline is not, we believe, as a result of immunity to the virus, but rather as a consequence of the actions that we humans have been taking in order to try and stop new transmission chains being initiated."

"It's quite possible that cases are dropping ... but I think it's stretching credulity to suggest that means the pandemic is past," Hanage said.

He said that in order for the pandemic to be over, somewhere between 60 and 75 percent of the world's population would have to be infected, giving rise to herd immunity.

"We don't have evidence to think that that is what's happened during the initial surge," he said.

Hanage also emphasized that any plan to reopen the economy should have increased testing as a requirement.

"A prerequisite for moving forward needs to be the ability to detect if we have a surge building that is going to threaten health care. That means testing," he said. "If you get a new surge building and you don't detect it, then you could be in a very bad situation very quickly."

Hanage said if social distancing restrictions are dropped, the virus could make a comeback in the fall, or even as early as the summer.

"What we have to remember is that as we start changing things, the opportunity for future surges could be there," he said. "They definitely could happen."

Instead of dropping restrictions, he said, "We should be trying to figure out ways to refine what we're doing now," and trying to figure out the measures that are "most helpful and most sustainable" and have the largest effect.

"I really think it's extremely important that we manage to balance the response to this with economic activity, but I think that one of the things we've got to remember is we've got to keep a very close eye on it," he said.

"One of my major concerns at the moment is I'm detecting a sense among folks that this is coming to an end, whereas, actually, we're really just in the beginning," he said.

President Trump, who is anxious to reopen the economy, at a briefing later Wednesday downplayed the idea that the virus could see a resurgence, saying if it did "it's not going to be like it was. ... It's also possible it doesn't come back at all."

But his top experts disagreed. "There will be coronavirus in the fall," Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the federal government's top infectious disease expert, said as Trump looked on.

Fauci also said that "whether or not it's going to be big or small is going to depend on our response."

[Ratliff]

Yes, it's being debated & obviously as a layman, I can't say who's right, but there are several aspects to criticize, possibly reject the herd / immunity theories - such as

1) the body might just become immune for only a short period, even down to one year
2) calculations often result in, that getting the whole population into a first immunity stage would in reality take several years
3) the virus tends to mutate a lot and in that way possibly transcend immunity as well

Herd immunity is great if it comes from a vaccine. Herd immunity from getting this disease isn't a great option since, even taking into account incomplete testing, somewhere between 0.5% and 1% of people who get Covid-19 die. (In the U.S., 5% of confirmed cases are fatal, because testing is so sparse.) If 75% of the population constitutes herd immunity, that means up to 0.75% of the population will die. A few million people in the U.S.

Reports I've seen seem to indicate that the virus mutation rate is slow. There are a dozen strains floating around differing by one or two bases. That would not be an issue if there were a vaccine.

And, yes, it is an assumption that acquired immunity will be long term. Some viral infections result in long term immunity (like chicken pox) but others result in immunity that only lasts for months. I've seen reports that the Covid-19 virus infects and kills T-cells, which are one of the ways the human immune system retains long-term immunity. That's the most worrying factoid, I think. It could prevent a vaccine from working. That's my main worry, the implicit assumption that "things will go back to normal when there is a vaccine." There may never be an effective vaccine.

[André]

As countries open, close, reopen etc, bouts of epidemic will likely recur in the coming years. Immunity being currently unknown but estimated to be under 10%, that means that 90%+ of any given country is vulnerable to an eventual exposure to the virus. Unless that elusive vaccine materializes, we're in this for quite some time.

[Mirror Image]

And, yes, it is an assumption that acquired immunity will be long term. Some viral infections result in long term immunity (like chicken pox) but others result in immunity that only lasts for months. I've seen reports that the Covid-19 virus infects and kills T-cells, which are one of the ways the human immune system retains long-term immunity. That's the most worrying factoid, I think. It could prevent a vaccine from working. That's my main worry, the implicit assumption that "things will go back to normal when there is a vaccine." There may never be an effective vaccine.

This is the most worrying aspect of all of this --- a vaccine doesn't mean 100% success rate. This could be years in the making. If the reports you read are, indeed, factual, then this means this virus attacks the immune system like HIV does (i. e. the killing of T-cells). A most scary thought. One of the main differences is this coronavirus moves at a more rapid pace or so it seems right now. We have a long, long fight ahead of us and 'us' meaning the entire world.

[Karl Henning]

This is the most worrying aspect of all of this --- a vaccine doesn't mean 100% success rate. This could be years in the making. If the reports you read are, indeed, factual, then this means this virus attacks the immune system like HIV does (i. e. the killing of T-cells). A most scary thought. One of the main differences is this coronavirus moves at a more rapid pace or so it seems right now. We have a long, long fight ahead of us and 'us' meaning the entire world.

No speedy recovery, alas!

[Ratliff]

This is the most worrying aspect of all of this --- a vaccine doesn't mean 100% success rate. This could be years in the making. If the reports you read are, indeed, factual, then this means this virus attacks the immune system like HIV does (i. e. the killing of T-cells). A most scary thought. One of the main differences is this coronavirus moves at a more rapid pace or so it seems right now. We have a long, long fight ahead of us and 'us' meaning the entire world.

The T-cell result is also preliminary. The virus was found to infect but not reproduce in T-cells, in culture I think. The T-cells underwent apoptosis (programmed cell death) which is a self-defense mechanism. Not clear if this would be significant in actual infections.

I see a lot of wishful thinking, such-and-such is already starting a clinical trial of a vaccine, two dozen groups are developing a vaccine, such and such a drug has been tried in a clinic and the patients recovered, etc. There is the thought that this is so urgent that we should bypass the slow, methodical scientific procedure. What people don't get is that there is no shortcut for science. Science is the shortcut, faster than trying this and that based on anecdotal evidence.

[Mirror Image]

No speedy recovery, alas!

Indeed, not.

The T-cell result is also preliminary. The virus was found to infect but not reproduce in T-cells, in culture I think. The T-cells underwent apoptosis (programmed cell death) which is a self-defense mechanism. Not clear if this would be significant in actual infections.

I see a lot of wishful thinking, such-and-such is already starting a clinical trial of a vaccine, two dozen groups are developing a vaccine, such and such a drug has been tried in a clinic and the patients recovered, etc. There is the thought that this is so urgent that we should bypass the slow, methodical scientific procedure. What people don't get is that there is no shortcut for science. Science is the shortcut, faster than trying this and that based on anecdotal evidence.

As long as one is developed and is clinically-proven to eliminate this virus 100% with no chances of recurrence is all we truly can hope for. Yes, there's no rushing science, but I have confidence that at some point we'll be able to get on with our lives. It's just the waiting game that is always worrying and the delays that, no doubt, will arise.