Coronavirus thread

[MusicTurner]

Don't know if this link has been given here before, but:

An interesting site with predictions for future developments in many countries, unusually optimistic and suggesting a fairly quick recovery within a few months
(Germany, France and Spain by the end of May,
UK, USA, Italy and NL in mid-June,
Sweden by the end of July).

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/

However these predictions are with the current lock-downs in place, & the exact background for the calculations (mainly mathematical?) is difficult to relate to. They are from Singapore University.

[Que]

If forgetting a good deal of other, but smaller countries in the Western World.

I think most of those countires had a small problem to begin with, which makes it much easier to keep it that way.

Except for Sweden, that started out with a small problem which has steadily been growing.

Q

[milk]

There are indications thay being inoculated with certain vaccines creates a hightened resistance against COVID-19.
Mentioned are the vaccine against tuberculosis, even if that is not a virus, but more specifically a vaccine that children get against mumps, measles and ruberalla. Vaccination programmes differ between countries and age groups. So this may be a possible factor.

Q

There's a lot of talk about that here in Japan where my kids get, I think it's, BCG or BGC vaccine.

[Jo498]

I think Merkel gets way too much credit, most of which should probably go to administrative and medical infrastructure far lower down.
There are a lot of unknowns overall, so the extremely different numbers in some countries still seem puzzling to me.
Among other things it seems to me that the fact of extreme regional hotspots like NYC/NJ in the US and certain regions in Italy, France and Spain has not been sufficiently researched and appreciated. Also more local smaller concentrations in nursery homes etc. The cases and especially the deaths seem often very much concentrated in certain areas.

[Karl Henning]

I think it was a lot of dumb luck. The German minister of Health and most of the experts were asleep at the wheel in January and until late February like almost everyone else.
I am still doubtful about the impact of the diverse lockdown measures (because all these curves are so damn similar, they should be far more diverse depending on when which measure of distancing etc. was established) but another point is probably that the Germans are usually obedient. Lenin famously quipped more than 100 years ago that there would never be a revolution in Germany because Germany would not even step on the lawn if there was a sign forbidding it and this is to a certain extent still true.

Thanks.  Of course, in these times, especially, I begrudge no one a littl dumb luck 

[Todd]

A more fair comparison would be with New York.

A more fair comparison is South Korea.  Again, my main point is that many European governments, despite their supposedly superior governance and health care delivery systems, have done terrible jobs in this crisis.   

Incidentally, I never indicated that Iran and Brazil have handled the crisis well.  I simply listed the top ten countries as reported by Johns Hopkins.  I have severe doubts about the accuracy of the statistics reported by Iran, for instance.

There are indications thay being inoculated with certain vaccines creates a hightened resistance against COVID-19.

It will be most informative over the next 3, 6, 12 months to see if other vaccinations do have a statistically meaningful impact on the spread of Covid.  This could become more important if development of a Covid vaccine takes longer than hoped for.  That is a distinct possibility.

[Irons]

Why is it that Covid-19 is more prevalent in supposedly rich countries while Africa and India have got off relatively lightly? 

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Thanks.  Of course, in these times, especially, I begrudge no one a littl dumb luck 

Better 'dumb luck' than 'no luck at all'!

[Jo498]

They have a very different demography, far fewer people >70 yo that make up most of the deaths. And it could be the climate if the virus like similar ones is destroyed quickly by sun/UV rays or also higher temperatures. Then there could be better immunity among people having grown up and living in less sanitzed conditions. Finally, the medical and administrative systems of most of these countries are so underdeveloped that they simply cannot test and evaluate enough, so the data are certainly not very reliable.

[Ratliff]

I think Merkel gets way too much credit, most of which should probably go to administrative and medical infrastructure far lower down.

That is what she is supposed to do, listen to and support scientific and medical infrastructure. Our president let is own uninformed notions supersede scientific and public health response and the result is one of the worst outbreaks in the developed world.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Why is it that Covid-19 is more prevalent in supposedly rich countries while Africa and India have got off relatively lightly?

Good question Irons!  I'm trying to look into it .....so far found this about testing across Africa.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52478344

I'm not so certain that they've gotten off lightly though...

Would need to know and compare rates of testing in the various countries vs. other non-African countries...also percentage of population testing positive...density of population in different areas, etc.  Also, how well they've been keeping track of who has been infected by it and who has died from it.  And how they've been trying to keep it from spreading.

So far, found this re India:  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52505436

PD

[Que]

A more fair comparison is South Korea.  Again, my main point is that many European governments, despite their supposedly superior governance and health care delivery systems, have done terrible jobs in this crisis.

South Korea, or Taiwan, is definitely the standard to which other countries fall short in comparison.

Not implying any insult to those who take pride in their national healthcare systems, but it it seems that once a country failed to act promptly and effectively and got overrun  by the virus, the quality of its healthcare system was not really a significant factor anymore. The worst affected region in Italy has plenty and most excellent hospitals, but in the end it didn't make much of a difference.

IMO Western authorities got lulled into sleep by the fact that previous SARS outbreaks were limited to Asia.
The exceptionalist psychology of "that won't happen here", in combination with a reluctance to invest political and real capital into preparing for a crisis that might not have materialized, did us all in.

A greater independence for healthcare authorities with separate longterm budgets might be a good idea.
And investing public money in fundamental, preemptive research on infectious diseases.

Q

[André]

South Korea, or Taiwan, is definitely the standard to which other countries fall short in comparison.

Not implying any insult to those who take prude in their national healthcare systems, but it it seems that once a country failed to act promptly and effectively and got overrun  by the virus, the quality of its healthcare system was not really a significant factor anymore. The worst affected region in Italy has plenty and most excellent hospitals, but in the end it didn't make much of a difference.

IMO Western authorities got lulled into sleep by the fact that previous SARS outbreaks were limited to Asia.
The exceptionalist psychology of "that won't happen here", in combination with a reluctance to invest political and real capital into preparing for a crisis that might not have materialized, did us all in.

A greater independence for healthcare authorities with separate longterm budgets might be a good idea.
And investing public money in fundamental, preemptive research on infectious diseases.

Q

+1 on all the points you raise.

[Todd]

A greater independence for healthcare authorities with separate longterm budgets might be a good idea.

And investing public money in fundamental, preemptive research on infectious diseases.

The former idea will mean different things in different regions, of course, and in some US states, enhanced and restructured state level funding will be an easy political sell, and in others it will not be.   

More money for research is always a good idea, and it can be a mix of public and private funds.  I suspect in the US that some deep pocketed donors will pour money into research, treatment, and so forth.  It is already happening where I live.

[Karl Henning]

Better 'dumb luck' than 'no luck at all'!

Verily!

[Todd]

A couple articles from The Gray Lady, so they may not be true:

Global Backlash Builds Against China Over Coronavirus

The Covid-19 Riddle: Why Does the Virus Wallop Some Places and Spare Others?

[MusicTurner]

Besides the Remdesivir drug effects, hopeful news coming from a Norwegian-British company, BerGenBio, claiming that with 80% certainty, they have a 'revolutionary, virus-hindering pill, Bemcentinib', with the results of bigger test likely coming at the end of June.

Also, Swiss Roche's drug Tocilizumab is apparently able to reduce the human body's own, anti-virus - but at the same time self-harming - reactions.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8281109/Tiny-Oxford-firm-extremely-optimistic-pill-developed-combat-coronavirus.html

[Karl Henning]

Besides the Remdesivir drug effects, hopeful news coming from a Norwegian-British company, BerGenBio, claiming that with 80% certainty, they have a 'revolutionary, virus-hindering pill, Bemcentinib, with the results of bigger test likely coming at the end of June.

Also, Swiss Roche's drug Tocilizumab is apparently able to reduce the human body's own, anti-virus - but at the same time self-harming - reactions.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8281109/Tiny-Oxford-firm-extremely-optimistic-pill-developed-combat-coronavirus.html

Cool!

[Mandryka]

If forgetting a good deal of other, but smaller countries in the Western World.

And India.

[Mandryka]

.

The other thing of course is that Germany had big reserves in hospital beds.

In the UK we never had a problem with ICU beds, and in France neither (though I believe they came close on the night of March 31)

That's the official line, maybe in the UK it's misleading because possibly people in nursing homes weren't admitted to hospital - but maybe they were not in a fit state for intubation anyway, and getting a less invasive intensive care in their homes. It's complicated.