Coronavirus thread

[JBS]

I know, but...what is the actual policy on travel coming in?

(can't believe I wrote "Brasil" twice)

Just your inner Brasiliero showing?

[SimonNZ]

Just 7.3% of Stockholm had Covid-19 antibodies by end of April, study shows

"Just 7.3% of Stockholm's inhabitants had developed Covid-19 antibodies by the end of April, according to a study, raising concerns that the country's light-touch approach to the coronavirus may not be helping it build up broad immunity.

The research by Sweden's public health agency comes as Finland warned it would be risky to welcome Swedish tourists after figures suggested the country's death rate per capita was the highest in Europe over the seven days to 19 May.

Sweden's state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said the antibodies figure was "a bit lower than we'd thought", but added that it reflected the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now "a little more than 20%" of the capital's population had probably contracted the virus.

However, the public health agency had previously said it expected about 25% to have been infected by 1 May and Tom Britton, a maths professor who helped develop its forecasting model, said the figure from the study was surprising.

"It means either the calculations made by the agency and myself are quite wrong, which is possible, but if that's the case it's surprising they are so wrong," he told the newspaper Dagens Nyheter. "Or more people have been infected than developed antibodies."

Björn Olsen, a professor of infectious medicine at Uppsala University, said herd immunity was a "dangerous and unrealistic" approach. "I think herd immunity is a long way off, if we ever reach it," he told Reuters after the release of the antibody findings."[...]


Why are Africa's coronavirus successes being overlooked?
Examples of innovation aren't getting the fanfare they would do if they emerged from Europe or the US

[MusicTurner]

What is the mortality rate so far in terms of percentage?  It sounds like from what you've said that it's incredibly low.  Do you have the sense that people have been good about social-distancing?  Perhaps a healthier population (from what I've heard over the years) is a big factor?  What are things like in your town/city re openings?  In any event, I wish you all the best and thank you very much for the updates.

Best wishes,

PD

  Thank you! Yes, the statistics here are relatively OK, though for some comparable, nearby countries like Norway or Finland it is even better, whereas Sweden is bad. Sweden, having a less restrictive strategy and some serious problems in the sector for the elderly, has double the population, but is now at 4000 fatalities. This is sad, we often go to Sweden otherwise, also for vacation trips, but will abstain at least this year throughout.

I think the best worldwide statistics source (with obvious limitations implied in the very different testing percentages of the population in various countries etc.) is:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
+
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

  Our government was quick at a lock-down (around March 12th), and people were generally good at living up to the recommendations. Police mainly had to work with some modest, outdoor spontaneous gatherings in fine weather. Masks are used by almost no people, but there is a lot of disinfection stands and guidance signs in shops etc. I read that in the US, you have people disinfecting the shopping carts etc. - sounds good, but we don't. I wonder whether the harsh sueing habits in the US and the UK, and the relatively low hourly salaries for getting more workers temporarily, may be factors for those precautions.

  But I am very grateful to the Social Democrats government's safety approach, in spite of the pressure for more opening up from market-orientated political parties and circles. In the end, these political agreements have been verified by all parties in parliament, however, showing the state of a ~national emergency, but this consensus is now coming under very strong pressure and probably won't continue. IMO, the lock-down has increased people's general attention to the virus a lot, many lives have been saved, and the economy will survive quite OK. They say that the government's covering of some of the expenses for companies and for employees' salaries will cost a good deal on the state budget, but the estimates vary a lot. There are also many speculations whether our economy will change for the better in the long run, say due to future-orientated investments in green energy, education, local production as opposed to foreign imports, etc.; for example, the government has just announced investing in two huge artificial 'energy islands' at sea, providing green energy.

  I also hope that these events will result in more appreciation, also financially, for people working in the practical, basic levels of society; they were the ones who actually kept society going, through their daily work.

  It's been a month now with a gradual loosening of the lock-down. But since a couple of days ago life is almost back to normal, just with a few recommendations in daily life and transport, and very few places & the borders closed down. People have however become more relaxed & it is quite frustrating, if you're having a lot of attention to that - say noticing, how runners don't show much attention to others on footpaths, and people sitting rather close at cafes, etc. But so far, statistics continue to be good; we'll see in around a week whether this tendency continues. I really hope so; if not, stricter measures should be promptly re-introduced, but it will be very difficult.

  Personally I have a paid leave until July, then I'll get my yearly vacation payment, equal to a month's salary, and a lot of the time there's also the possibility to supplement with some free-lance work. The main job will hopefully start in late August again. So economically this hasn't been a problem so far, unless the main municipality job will be permanently abolished later. Though living in the city, ordering groceries from the internet was felt safer, say around every 8-10 days, combined with very little shopping. Didn't use public transport since early March, getting around with a bicycle has been OK, also for family visits etc., including some 40 km away, which was only nice and healthy in good weather ... . I know of no personal acquaintances that have become sick so far, 'Touch Wood'.

Maybe others here can tell a bit of stuff like this ...

[drogulus]

  I also hope that these events will result in more appreciation, also financially, for people working in the practical, basic levels of society; they were the ones who actually kept society going, through their daily work.

    In the US we don't do that. We appreciate job creators and love liberty for the deserving class that can shelter in place for like ever. Everyone else can sacrifice for the greater good.

    Things are not going well virus-wise for the Rona Troika.

     

     

[SimonNZ]

Antimalarial drug touted by President Trump is linked to increased risk of death in coronavirus patients, study says

The study from The Lancet:

Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis

[SimonNZ]

UK: All people arriving in country from 8 June must quarantine for 14 days

this wasn't the case already?? then what is the point of starting now??

[Pohjolas Daughter]

  Thank you! Yes, the statistics here are relatively OK, though for some comparable, nearby countries like Norway or Finland it is even better, whereas Sweden is bad. Sweden, having a less restrictive strategy and some serious problems in the sector for the elderly, has double the population, but is now at 4000 fatalities. This is sad, we often go to Sweden otherwise, also for vacation trips, but will abstain at least this year throughout.

I think the best worldwide statistics source (with obvious limitations implied in the very different testing percentages of the population in various countries etc.) is:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
+
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/

  Our government was quick at a lock-down (around March 12th), and people were generally good at living up to the recommendations. Police mainly had to work with some modest, outdoor spontaneous gatherings in fine weather. Masks are used by almost no people, but there is a lot of disinfection stands and guidance signs in shops etc. I read that in the US, you have people disinfecting the shopping carts etc. - sounds good, but we don't. I wonder whether the harsh sueing habits in the US and the UK, and the relatively low hourly salaries for getting more workers temporarily, may be factors for those precautions.

  But I am very grateful to the Social Democrats government's safety approach, in spite of the pressure for more opening up from market-orientated political parties and circles. In the end, these political agreements have been verified by all parties in parliament, however, showing the state of a ~national emergency, but this consensus is now coming under very strong pressure and probably won't continue. IMO, the lock-down has increased people's general attention to the virus a lot, many lives have been saved, and the economy will survive quite OK. They say that the government's covering of some of the expenses for companies and for employees' salaries will cost a good deal on the state budget, but the estimates vary a lot. There are also many speculations whether our economy will change for the better in the long run, say due to future-orientated investments in green energy, education, local production as opposed to foreign imports, etc.; for example, the government has just announced investing in two huge artificial 'energy islands' at sea, providing green energy.

  I also hope that these events will result in more appreciation, also financially, for people working in the practical, basic levels of society; they were the ones who actually kept society going, through their daily work.

  It's been a month now with a gradual loosening of the lock-down. But since a couple of days ago life is almost back to normal, just with a few recommendations in daily life and transport, and very few places & the borders closed down. People have however become more relaxed & it is quite frustrating, if you're having a lot of attention to that - say noticing, how runners don't show much attention to others on footpaths, and people sitting rather close at cafes, etc. But so far, statistics continue to be good; we'll see in around a week whether this tendency continues. I really hope so; if not, stricter measures should be promptly re-introduced, but it will be very difficult.

  Personally I have a paid leave until July, then I'll get my yearly vacation payment, equal to a month's salary, and a lot of the time there's also the possibility to supplement with some free-lance work. The main job will hopefully start in late August again. So economically this hasn't been a problem so far, unless the main municipality job will be permanently abolished later. Though living in the city, ordering groceries from the internet was felt safer, say around every 8-10 days, combined with very little shopping. Didn't use public transport since early March, getting around with a bicycle has been OK, also for family visits etc., including some 40 km away, which was only nice and healthy in good weather ... . I know of no personal acquaintances that have become sick so far, 'Touch Wood'.

Maybe others here can tell a bit of stuff like this ...

Nice to hear about what is going on in Denmark and yes, like you, I'd love to hear more about what is going on elsewhere.

I just read this story about a Bolivian orchestra getting stuck in Germany....quite interesting.  I do hope that they are able to go home soon.  And props to all of the people in Germany who have been helping them out; I love reading about people looking out for one another.     https://www.bbc.com/news/the-reporters-52760380

Delays in farmers markets opening and extra precautions; hope to be able to go to one tomorrow (and, yes, I'll be wearing a mask).

Best,

PD

[Daverz]

If you feel the need to knock off 50 IQ points or so, here's an interview with "Costco Kevin", a mask denier or whatever they are called.  I could only take a few minutes myself.

https://www.youtube.com/v/1Quj3eWw26A

[Todd]

The Coming Post-COVID Anarchy

The Pandemic Bodes Ill for Both American and Chinese Power—and for the Global Order

A Kevin Rudd scribbling.

[MusicTurner]

Some generally positive news:

- The press and doctors here are very glad about it, calling it incredible news etc.: a series of studies of Remdesivir, though still not concluded, seem to suggest that the lives of no less than up to 80% - and not just 20% - of the patients can be saved, when Remdesivir is used at the right time during the treatment. The main study source is https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764?query=featured_home

Organizations are worried though, that the sole company behind the medicine, Gilead Sciences, tends to demand extremely high prices for their  medicine, which may hinder a general use of Remdesivir; the company has a patent running until 2031. There is currently a dialogue between health organizations and the company. But some are suggesting, that a special WTO paragraph may be used, allowing breaking a patent in the interest of the public good, during an emergency.

- ECMO machines are now said to be able to cure people who have been confined to ventilation machines; the problem is however that ECMOs are very costly.

- The Norwegian professor Terje Andersen is quite certain, that old blood from SARS-patients is able to stop Corona from developing further
https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/i/wPGJp5/ny-medisin-kan-sette-koronaviruset-sjakkmatt-jan-terje-andersen

- also, there have been plenty of stories about the company Moderna's apparently promising vaccine
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna-early-results/index.html


Some further, Scandinavian sources, but googling will no doubt result in English-language sources as well:
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/professorer-begejstrede-nyt-studie-foerste-gang-kan-vi-behandle-coronavirus?app_mode=true
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-studie-medicin-reducerer-coronadodsfald-med-80-procent
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-remdesivir-skal-ud-til-alle-resultaterne-er-utrolige-siger-professor
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-danske-patienter-advarer-mod-virksomhed-bag-succesmedicin-vi-kender-dem-desvaerre

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/respiratoren-kunne-ikke-redde-28-aarige-charlotte-men-saa-blev-hun-tilbudt-ecmo

https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/i/wPGJp5/ny-medisin-kan-sette-koronaviruset-sjakkmatt-jan-terje-andersen

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Some generally positive news:

- The press and doctors here are very glad about it, calling it incredible news etc.: a series of studies of Remdesivir, though still not concluded, seem to suggest that the lives of no less than up to 80% - and not just 20% - of the patients can be saved, when Remdesivir is used at the right time during the treatment. The main study source is https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764?query=featured_home

Organizations are worried though, that the sole company behind the medicine, Gilead Sciences, tends to demand extremely high prices for their  medicine, which may hinder a general use of Remdesivir; the company has a patent running until 2031. There is currently a dialogue between health organizations and the company. But some are suggesting, that a special WTO paragraph may be used, allowing breaking a patent in the interest of the public good, during an emergency.

- ECMO machines are now said to be able to cure people who have been confined to ventilation machines; the problem is however that ECMOs are very costly.

- The Norwegian professor Terje Andersen is quite certain, that old blood from SARS-patients is able to stop Corona from developing further
https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/i/wPGJp5/ny-medisin-kan-sette-koronaviruset-sjakkmatt-jan-terje-andersen

- also, there have been plenty of stories about the company Moderna's apparently promising vaccine
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna-early-results/index.html


Some further, Scandinavian sources, but googling will no doubt result in English-language sources as well:
https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/professorer-begejstrede-nyt-studie-foerste-gang-kan-vi-behandle-coronavirus?app_mode=true
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-studie-medicin-reducerer-coronadodsfald-med-80-procent
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-remdesivir-skal-ud-til-alle-resultaterne-er-utrolige-siger-professor
https://nyheder.tv2.dk/samfund/2020-05-23-danske-patienter-advarer-mod-virksomhed-bag-succesmedicin-vi-kender-dem-desvaerre

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/respiratoren-kunne-ikke-redde-28-aarige-charlotte-men-saa-blev-hun-tilbudt-ecmo

https://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/i/wPGJp5/ny-medisin-kan-sette-koronaviruset-sjakkmatt-jan-terje-andersen

Nice to hear some good news!  I like the idea that if someone is charging really high prices for a drug and it's during a pandemic, that there might be a way to deal with it/them.   

Did just read this article which made me even more concerned (if possible) about what is happening to the Amazon.  https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51300515

PD

[Ratliff]

Some generally positive news:

- The press and doctors here are very glad about it, calling it incredible news etc.: a series of studies of Remdesivir, though still not concluded, seem to suggest that the lives of no less than up to 80% - and not just 20% - of the patients can be saved, when Remdesivir is used at the right time during the treatment. The main study source is https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764?query=featured_home

I'm not sure where those numbers come from. The report linked indicates that mean hospitalization was reduced from 15 days to 11 days with Remdesivir, that 14 day mortality was reduced from 11.9% to 7.1%, that the probability of "severe adverse events" was reduced from 27.0% to 21.1%. This is a dramatic improvement of outcomes, but not a cure that will end the threat of the pandemic.

[Mandryka]

Song for Dominic Cummings

https://www.youtube.com/v/0na2Y_74_mk&ebc=ANyPxKoxE8YFEgVp7qGKW7zgSLcEUI2fdLdhb0pl1GTlBx1g6yHC5xa2xwSekTdQqsKdu7DjpomeItRr38j42r8wf0FeLHo2Vw

[SimonNZ]

"She's better off dead than alive / for fuck's sake she's sixty-five"...

[Papy Oli]

Song for Dominic Cummings

I can't decide what is the most ignominious : his (repeated?) actions in breach of lock-down whilst setting the rules for all of us ...or the lame excuses by some of the cabinet members and the scientific advisor yesterday trying to find a suitable loophole in their own rules to cover the actions of this @%&!

[milk]

Here in Japan, the "state of emergencies" end. We had schools closed, as well as the big attractions and dept. stores, but no major enforced social distancing. Also, testing was shoddy by design; they made it really hard to get a declared infection. How did Japan avoid the worst with such conservative policies? No one is sure. Masks probably played a big role as everyone wore them early-on, many Japanese already wore them habitually before the virus. I don't know if I believe the other so called reasons. Some people say they were expert at contract tracing but that's hard to swallow as I think the medical bureaucracy here is as inept as every other bureaucracy in Japan. Or worse. Maybe the Asian virus is a weaker strain? No idea beyond that.   

[greg]

Here in Japan, the "state of emergencies" end. We had schools closed, as well as the big attractions and dept. stores, but no major enforced social distancing. Also, testing was shoddy by design; they made it really hard to get a declared infection. How did Japan avoid the worst with such conservative policies? No one is sure. Masks probably played a big role as everyone wore them early-on, many Japanese already wore them habitually before the virus. I don't know if I believe the other so called reasons. Some people say they were expert at contract tracing but that's hard to swallow as I think the medical bureaucracy here is as inept as every other bureaucracy in Japan. Or worse. Maybe the Asian virus is a weaker strain? No idea beyond that.

Probably masks were the #1 most important thing. Would be nice if the Western world started to adopt this practice.

Other than that, low obesity rates for young people probably helps. And for old people, the tendency to live more away from big cities might help as well (just my observation, could be wrong about this, but there seems to be much less old people than you'd think in the big cities given the large amount of them country-wide). Maybe contrast that with Italy, where kids and grandparents intermingled a lot. Probably city kids knowing to not visit their parents in the suburbs.

[MusicTurner]

I'm not sure where those numbers come from. The report linked indicates that mean hospitalization was reduced from 15 days to 11 days with Remdesivir, that 14 day mortality was reduced from 11.9% to 7.1%, that the probability of "severe adverse events" was reduced from 27.0% to 21.1%. This is a dramatic improvement of outcomes, but not a cure that will end the threat of the pandemic.

The comments about up to 80% surviving are from some of the Danish doctors, who are participating in, or responsible for sections of, the current international survey work with Remdesivir. The trick is apparently to use the drug as soon as pneumonia sets in. But I can't see exactly where these 80% were found, except they must have been mentioned to or by some of those Danish people involved.

[Karl Henning]

With reopening comes the threat of a second wave of COVID-19, scientists warn

Epidemiologists say not to get too comfortable with the new normal: Another wave could also mean a second lockdown.

By Dasia Moore Globe Staff,Updated May 25, 2020, 4:38 p.m.

It could start in a half-empty restaurant or a Sunday morning church service, with a stray cough or a joyful hymn. Public health experts warn that without a vaccine or a heavy dose of caution, Massachusetts could easily be hit by a second wave of COVID-19 infections that rivals the first.

Such a wave could come in the fall or sooner, as restrictions ease and people return to traveling and spending time in crowded, closed-in spaces. And, experts say, if the state's tools for tracking the virus's spread are not up to snuff by then, a second wave could go undetected until it's too late[ ....]

[drogulus]

     Nationally deaths are plummeting and new cases are declining more slowly.

     

     These states have seen considerable growth in new cases over the last week. The hardest hit states, California excepted, are responsible for the national slowing.

     Take Massachusetts, please:

     Cases

     

     Deaths