Coronavirus thread

[MusicTurner]

Yes, I read a summary elsewhere, and it's interesting, but I don't quite understand why such very high proportional numbers of infected persons hasn't occurred for real in close-to-no-lock-down Sweden then.

[JBS]

Retail, dining, and many other businesses can begin to reopen in Massachusetts today

Indeed, I just got word suggesting that First Church in Boston is resuming services: the organist informs me that he selected a piece of mine for the prelude this Sunday, 14 June

I'll take that as a good omen.

[Todd]

WHO says pandemic 'far from over' as daily cases hit record high


Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says


It's official: The U.S. entered a recession in February


US stocks surge, erasing 2020 losses


If you've seen one pandemic, you've seen one pandemic.

[Mandryka]

Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is 'very rare,' WHO says

Thanks for that one.

[vandermolen]

Retail, dining, and many other businesses can begin to reopen in Massachusetts today

Indeed, I just got word suggesting that First Church in Boston is resuming services: the organist informs me that he selected a piece of mine for the prelude this Sunday, 14 June

How nice Karl. Will you be there to hear it?

[drogulus]

     14 states and Puerto Rico hit highest seven-day average of new coronavirus infections

The increase of coronavirus cases in counties with fewer than 60,000 people is part of the trend of new infections surging across the rural United States. Health experts worry those areas, already short of resources before the pandemic, will struggle to track new cases with the infrastructure that remains.

Adding to the disparity in health-care support, residents in states such as Mississippi, Florida and South Carolina are living under only minor-to-moderate restrictions — even as their average daily infection rate is rising.

     

[Karl Henning]

How nice Karl. Will you be there to hear it?

Not sure, as yet.

[drogulus]

Yes, I read a summary elsewhere, and it's interesting, but I don't quite understand why such very high proportional numbers of infected persons hasn't occurred for real in close-to-no-lock-down Sweden then.

     I looked at the Imperial College study and particularly Sweden. It appears their measures worked a little less well than those applied in other countries. The thing to remember is the study is trying to measure what an outbreak would look like if nothing was done to halt the spread. I don't think that has been the case in any country.

[Karl Henning]

How nice Karl. Will you be there to hear it?

Well, in fact, similarly to the church I serve, they're streaming the service via Facebook.

[Karl Henning]

No, the lockdowns weren't an overreaction

"From the beginning of the pandemic, many conservatives have argued that the lockdowns were an overreaction to the novel coronavirus and that they are causing unnecessary economic pain. Recent studies, however, show that this argument is wrong.

Lockdowns and other measures to inhibit the spread of covid-19 likely saved hundreds of thousands of lives in the United States alone. We know this because of the way the virus spreads exponentially. Without lockdowns and other measures, every infected person would come into contact with a large number of uninfected people every day. A certain percentage of those people would contract the disease and would then further spread the disease to other uninfected people. Left unchecked, diseases such as covid-19 become like a raging wildfire, burning everything in their path."

[Mirror Image]

We haven't seen anything yet. People thought the first wave of this virus was bad wait until the second wave hits, which we're already starting to see in major populated cities once again thanks in no large part to the incompetence of our elected officials but also to the sheer ignorance of those who believed that COVID was only going to last a few months.

[drogulus]

     Lockdowns are intended to be overreactions. That was made quite clear from the beginning of the outbreak. You do too much because the consequences of doing too little are unacceptable. Suppose we try to do only just enough and turn out to be wrong about what just enough is?

     So did we "overreact" too much? The studies in Nature appear to confirm that we didn't, though since that has been the guiding assumption since the virus first began to spread, the studies are about as unsurprising as could be.  Who knew epidemiologists knew epidemiology? I figured they did.

   

[arpeggio]

If a person is not going to believe science about evolution and climate change they are not going to believe science about this virus.

[Karl Henning]

     Lockdowns are intended to be overreactions. That was made quite clear from the beginning of the outbreak. You do too much because the consequences of doing too little are unacceptable. Suppose we try to do only just enough and turn out to be wrong about what just enough is?

     So did we "overreact" too much? The studies in Nature appear to confirm that we didn't, though since that has been the guiding assumption since the virus first began to spread, the studies are about as unsurprising as could be.  Who knew epidemiologists knew epidemiology? I figured they did.

   

If a person is not going to believe science about evolution and climate change they are not going to believe science about this virus.

Aye.

[Mandryka]

which we're already starting to see in major populated cities

Which cities?

I'm sure you're right, by the way, there will be a second wave. Hopefully we can keep it under control without shutting the economy down.

[Karl Henning]

"Parts of the U.S. that had previously avoided being hit hard by the outbreak are now tallying record averages of new infections. Since the start of June, 14 states and Puerto Rico have recorded their highest-ever seven-day average of new coronavirus cases since the pandemic began, according to data tracked by The Washington Post."

[Mandryka]

"Parts of the U.S. that had previously avoided being hit hard by the outbreak are now tallying record averages of new infections. Since the start of June, 14 states and Puerto Rico have recorded their highest-ever seven-day average of new coronavirus cases since the pandemic began, according to data tracked by The Washington Post."

Did they avoid being hard hit by going into lockdown and then came out of it with no test and trace or social distancing practices?

[Karl Henning]

Did they avoid being hard hit by going into lockdown and then came out of it with no test and trace or social distancing practices?

They are states which enacted no or minimal lockdown nor social distancing, and I suspect there is no test-&-trace in operation:


"Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Oregon, Florida and Utah all set new highs in seven-day rolling case averages Wednesday, according to Post data.
Montana, Arkansas, Utah, Arizona and Texas have all seen coronavirus hospitalizations rise by at least 35 percent in the weeks since Memorial Day."

[Ratliff]

They are states which enacted no or minimal lockdown nor social distancing, and I suspect there is no test-&-trace in operation:


"Texas, Arkansas, South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Oregon, Florida and Utah all set new highs in seven-day rolling case averages Wednesday, according to Post data.
Montana, Arkansas, Utah, Arizona and Texas have all seen coronavirus hospitalizations rise by at least 35 percent in the weeks since Memorial Day."

You are not correct that Texas enacted no lockdown nor social distancing. Texas was a bit behind the curve, but there was a substantial lockdown (which is in the process of being lifted) and social distancing remains in effect. Moving from California to Texas, I did not note a substantial difference in the coronavirus response in April. Texas has been more zealous in lifting restrictions. (Of course, this applies to the specific areas I observed.)

[Mandryka]

You are not correct that Texas enacted no lockdown nor social distancing. Texas was a bit behind the curve, but there was a substantial lockdown (which is in the process of being lifted) and social distancing remains in effect. Moving from California to Texas, I did not note a substantial difference in the coronavirus response in April. Texas has been more zealous in lifting restrictions. (Of course, this applies to the specific areas I observed.)

What about test and trace?

In Europe even the right is keen to put a lid on hospitalisations through test and trace. Here there's a right to health care at the point of need. I guess in America too they want to stop things going medieval.