Coronavirus thread

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

Covid cases in U.S. could be near zero in 6 months, UBS economist says.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/13/vaccine-could-add-1-percentage-point-to-us-gdp-in-2021-ubs-says.html

[T. D.]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/we-blew-it-us-reaches-explosive-covid-19-spread-as-virus-is-nearly-impossible-to-control-experts-say-210948870.html

...
But while the restrictions and stay-at-home orders may help limit the damage, Dr. Gregory Poland, an infectious disease expert and head of Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group, says it may be too little too late. "We are now exponential. You cannot control exponentiality. We blew it; we're past that," Poland tells Yahoo Life. "Now the only options are that something happens with the virus where it dies out, we lock down like many places in Europe are doing, or we find a vaccine that's highly effective that virtually everybody takes. Those are our only options at this point."

Pfizer announced this week that its COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in phase III clinical trials, which is promising. Still, with approval likely weeks away and widespread availability not predicted until 2021, the situation in the U.S. — at this point — remains bleak. "I wish I could give you better news," says Alagoz. "But until we have a vaccine that is available or, as a community, many people change their behavior, I am not expecting that it's going to slow down."

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/we-blew-it-us-reaches-explosive-covid-19-spread-as-virus-is-nearly-impossible-to-control-experts-say-210948870.html

...
But while the restrictions and stay-at-home orders may help limit the damage, Dr. Gregory Poland, an infectious disease expert and head of Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group, says it may be too little too late. "We are now exponential. You cannot control exponentiality. We blew it; we're past that," Poland tells Yahoo Life. "Now the only options are that something happens with the virus where it dies out, we lock down like many places in Europe are doing, or we find a vaccine that's highly effective that virtually everybody takes. Those are our only options at this point."

Pfizer announced this week that its COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90 percent effective in phase III clinical trials, which is promising. Still, with approval likely weeks away and widespread availability not predicted until 2021, the situation in the U.S. — at this point — remains bleak. "I wish I could give you better news," says Alagoz. "But until we have a vaccine that is available or, as a community, many people change their behavior, I am not expecting that it's going to slow down."

The WBI (We Blew It) thesis appears to be strong. True, virus can spread exponentially but they cannot be reduced exponentially. Plus the behavior of people in the U.S.A..

[krummholz]

Although it cannot be reduced exponentially, the exponential factor can be reduced until it no longer looks like exponential growth. We did it in the spring. The problem is the behavior of people. I'm not sure how much is pandemic fatigue and how much is complacency, but even here where compliance used to be good, it no longer is. And the virus is gaining the upper hand, even in communities that were until very recently nearly untouched.

Understanding exponential growth is something many people have trouble with. There is the classic riddle: if the number of cases has a doubling time of one day but takes 48 days to infect the entire population, how many days does it take to infect only half the population?

The answer, of course, is 47. It is on the 48th day that it infects the other half.

[Gurn Blanston]

Although it cannot be reduced exponentially, the exponential factor can be reduced until it no longer looks like exponential growth. We did it in the spring. The problem is the behavior of people. I'm not sure how much is pandemic fatigue and how much is complacency, but even here where compliance used to be good, it no longer is. And the virus is gaining the upper hand, even in communities that were until very recently nearly untouched.

Understanding exponential growth is something many people have trouble with. There is the classic riddle: if the number of cases has a doubling time of one day but takes 48 days to infect the entire population, how many days does it take to infect only half the population?

The answer, of course, is 47. It is on the 48th day that it infects the other half.

I had this very conversation with my wife over dinner this evening. In addition to the math,  she contends that no matter what steps had been taken early times, we would still be in this same fix because people (Americans in particular) are such selfish boneheads that they won't follow any guideline, even on threat of death.

I believe that firm and reasonable government action had been taken during the 'grace period' at the beginning of the infection, the numbers of cases would have been exponentially smaller than they are now. On a 'deaths per million of population' basis, countries who took action are infinitely better off, even though they do have some cases. USA is ca. 690 deaths per million (USA: We're #1). Japan, China & Vietnam are below 3. Most of the differential comes from the fact that they have recently had major epidemics (SARS & MERS within the last 10 years, for example), so they had a plan they knew worked. But the much larger balance of the difference comes from the fact that the people did what the hell they were told. If it was just the stupid people dying, I would be good with that. But they  pass it around so generously before they go.

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

I had this very conversation with my wife over dinner this evening. In addition to the math,  she contends that no matter what steps had been taken early times, we would still be in this same fix because people (Americans in particular) are such selfish boneheads that they won't follow any guideline, even on threat of death.

I believe that firm and reasonable government action had been taken during the 'grace period' at the beginning of the infection, the numbers of cases would have been exponentially smaller than they are now. On a 'deaths per million of population' basis, countries who took action are infinitely better off, even though they do have some cases. USA is ca. 690 deaths per million (USA: We're #1). Japan, China & Vietnam are below 3. Most of the differential comes from the fact that they have recently had major epidemics (SARS & MERS within the last 10 years, for example), so they had a plan they knew worked. But the much larger balance of the difference comes from the fact that the people did what the hell they were told. If it was just the stupid people dying, I would be good with that. But they  pass it around so generously before they go.

In addition to the difference in education and moral, are the people potentially less risk-averse? Or just inconsiderate and irresponsible?   

[Karl Henning]

I had this very conversation with my wife over dinner this evening. In addition to the math,  she contends that no matter what steps had been taken early times, we would still be in this same fix because people (Americans in particular) are such selfish boneheads that they won't follow any guideline, even on threat of death.

I believe that firm and reasonable government action had been taken during the 'grace period' at the beginning of the infection, the numbers of cases would have been exponentially smaller than they are now. On a 'deaths per million of population' basis, countries who took action are infinitely better off, even though they do have some cases. USA is ca. 690 deaths per million (USA: We're #1). Japan, China & Vietnam are below 3. Most of the differential comes from the fact that they have recently had major epidemics (SARS & MERS within the last 10 years, for example), so they had a plan they knew worked. But the much larger balance of the difference comes from the fact that the people did what the hell they were told. If it was just the stupid people dying, I would be good with that. But they  pass it around so generously before they go.

Selfish boneheads ... ain't that America ....

[Que]

Current situation in the Netherlands:

Number of newly registered infections per day:



Number of patients in hospital:

[MusicTurner]

It's very good to see a drop there. How we all wish this to come to an end ... (well, almost all: I've heard about a few not very social people allegedly enjoying the current, 'quieter' general environment, etc.)

Up here, the situation has stabilized somewhat, albeit still around 750 - 1100 infections per day for a couple of weeks, but also a very high number of tests (55,000 - 80,000 on a daily basis, in total now past 6 mio, with a population of 5.6 mio). We're hoping for the numbers to drop soon, but the autumn has generally seen an increase.

[Karl Henning]

Especially for states that succumbed to our toxic national political environment and failed to slow the spread of disease, that future is now.

[71 dB]

Current situation in the Netherlands:

Number of newly registered infections per day:



Number of patients in hospital:

Good to see numbers going down in Netherlands. In Finland that's not the case:

[Karl Henning]

These five charts show how COVID-19 is making a comeback in Mass.

[Tom 1960]

Just 1 month ago cases here in Maine averaged just 28.4/day. Now we are averaging 179/day. Granted still low numbers compared to the rest of the U.S. but we've been very fortunate. Our luck may be running out though.

[T. D.]

Just 1 month ago cases here in Maine averaged just 28.4/day. Now we are averaging 179/day. Granted still low numbers compared to the rest of the U.S. but we've been very fortunate. Our luck may be running out though.

Ulster County, NY cases are increasing, details on https://covid19.ulstercountyny.gov/dashboard/
Already seeing isolated closings (dine-in restaurants, flea markets). I have a feeling that a lot of "Phase 4" businesses (last ones to reopen), e.g. gyms, malls, eat-in restaurants, are likely to get shut down again in the near future. Conceivably even some "Phase 3".

[Tom 1960]

Ulster County, NY cases are increasing, details on https://covid19.ulstercountyny.gov/dashboard/
Already seeing isolated closings (dine-in restaurants, flea markets). I have a feeling that a lot of "Phase 4" businesses (last ones to reopen), e.g. gyms, malls, eat-in restaurants, are likely to get shut down again in the near future. Conceivably even some "Phase 3".

I have a friend that works out at a local gym in Ulster County(Kingston) and she's going to have a fit if things shut down again. Meanwhile I've been back at the gym here in Maine just over 2 months after being away for nearly 6 mos. due to covid.  The possibility of things closing down again is not lost on me. Ugh.

[André]

Covid-19 patients often "don't want to believe that Covid is real."

"Their last dying words are, 'This can't be happening. It's not real.' And when they should be... Facetiming their families, they're filled with anger and hatred."

Sad, frustrating, hard to believe...

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/526204-south-dakota-nurse-says-many-dying-patients-still-insist-covid-19-not

[arpeggio]

I have read several polls that show the vast majority of Americans believe the virus is real and wear masks.

I live in Fairfax, Virginia and I rarely see anyone who does not wear a mask (70% of the county voted for Bien.).

The minority that refuses to wear masks and acknowledge the disease risk the health of all of us and makes us look like fools to the rest of the world   

[krummholz]

Just 1 month ago cases here in Maine averaged just 28.4/day. Now we are averaging 179/day. Granted still low numbers compared to the rest of the U.S. but we've been very fortunate. Our luck may be running out though.

Here in Vermont we are seeing a similar surge. A month ago new cases averaged in the single digits. Yesterday we tallied 122 new cases, a record, and have consistently been seeing numbers in excess of 40 per day over the last 2 weeks.

Vermont has a population under 1 million people so those numbers may seem less alarming than they should.

Most alarmingly for me personally, my county, which since the start of the pandemic was virtually untouched by the virus, is now the epicenter of the current surge.

[Tom 1960]

245 cases here today another record.

[Tom 1960]

Here in Vermont we are seeing a similar surge. A month ago new cases averaged in the single digits. Yesterday we tallied 122 new cases, a record, and have consistently been seeing numbers in excess of 40 per day over the last 2 weeks.

Vermont has a population under 1 million people so those numbers may seem less alarming than they should.

Most alarmingly for me personally, my county, which since the start of the pandemic was virtually untouched by the virus, is now the epicenter of the current surge.

My wife works as a nurse at a assisted living facility a short drive away. So far there have been zero cases at the facility. With the large influx of cases recently you have to wonder how much longer that streak will stay intact.