Coronavirus thread

[SimonNZ]

"Extreme" how? "Overkill" (now there's a poor choice of words) how? Its true that it helps that our border in a huge ocean, but there are plenty of other island nations who haven't found that enough on its own to stop the spread.

I could say some stuff about us having a better sense of community responsibility than I've seen elsewhere, more faith in government and health experts than I've seen elsewhere, and a subtly different notion of what "freedom" means - especially short-term vs long-term. And while all those things may have an element of truth really the success to date here has been one of leadership and trust, and with different leadership but the same population we may have had a very different outcome. A fact that was loudly acknowledged at the last election.

But anyway its to early for anyone to pat themselves on the back - as the govt continues to make clear to us. There's still the very real possibility here that some drongo will sneak out of managed isolation (which has happened on a number of occasions despite security) and start a community transmission that can't be halted with a localized lockdown

[Holden]

"Extreme" how? "Overkill" (now there's a poor choice of words) how? Its true that it helps that our border in a huge ocean, but there are plenty of other island nations who haven't found that enough on its own to stop the spread.

I could say some stuff about us having a better sense of community responsibility than I've seen elsewhere, more faith in government and health experts than I've seen elsewhere, and a subtly different notion of what "freedom" means - especially short-term vs long-term. And while all those things may have an element of truth really the success to date here has been one of leadership and trust, and with different leadership but the same population we may have had a very different outcome. A fact that was loudly acknowledged at the last election.

But anyway its to early for anyone to pat themselves on the back - as the govt continues to make clear to us. There's still the very real possibility here that some drongo will sneak out of managed isolation (which has happened on a number of occasions despite security) and start a community transmission that can't be halted with a localized lockdown

Simon, I couldn't agree more about the average NZers excellent response to dealing with the pandemic which is one of the reasons I think that the NZ Govt's response was draconian to say the least. Everything they asked Kiwis to do, they did. This means that a more considered response (like we had here in Qld) with looser restrictions would have had exactly the same result. Total deaths here in Qld which has the same population as NZ is six. We did this without clearing the streets and getting everyone to totally lock down.

From another perspective, this article I am going to paste below looks at a different and very successful response. Is there a lesson here for us in the western world?


WHEN THE Diamond Princess, a cruise ship suffering from an outbreak of covid-19, arrived in Japan in February, it seemed like a stroke of bad luck. A small floating petri dish threatened to turn the Japanese archipelago into a big one. In retrospect, however, the early exposure taught the authorities lessons that have helped make Japan's epidemic the mildest among the world's big economies, despite a recent surge in infections. In total 2,487 people have died of the coronavirus in Japan, just over half the number in China and fewer people than on a single day in America several times over the past week. Japan has suffered just 18 deaths per million people, a higher rate than in China, but by far the lowest in the G7, a club of big, industrialised democracies. (Germany comes in second, at 239.) Most strikingly, Japan has achieved this success without strict lockdowns or mass testing—the main weapons in the battle against covid-19 elsewhere.
"From the beginning we did not aim at containment," says Oshitani Hitoshi, a virologist who sits on an expert panel advising the government. That would require identifying all possible cases, which is not feasible in a country of Japan's size when the majority of infections produce mild or no symptoms, argues Mr Oshitani: "Even if you test everyone once per week, you'll still miss some." Japan performs the fewest tests in the G7: an average of 270 a day for every million people, compared with 4,000 or so in America and Britain (see chart).
Instead, the government tried to apply the lessons of the Diamond Princess. After trained quarantine officers and nurses were infected aboard the ship, despite following protocols for viruses that spread through droplets, Mr Oshitani's team concluded that the virus spread through the air. As early as March, Japanese officials began warning citizens to avoid the san-mitsu or "3Cs": closed spaces, crowded places and close-contact settings. The phrase was blasted across traditional and social media. Surveys conducted in the spring found that a big majority were avoiding 3C settings. The publishing house Jiyukokuminsha recently declared it "buzzword of the year" for 2020.
The Diamond Princess also inspired an early focus on clusters. The government set up a cluster-busting taskforce in March.
These insights allowed the authorities to make granular distinctions about risks, opting for targeted restrictions rather than swinging between the extremes of strict lockdowns and free-for-all openings. Nishimura Yasutoshi, the minister overseeing the government's response to covid-19, carries a device that monitors carbon dioxide to measure the quality of ventilation during his meetings. (The room where he and your correspondent meet registers 506 parts per million, safely below the threshold of 1000 ppm that indicates poor air flow. The interview takes place across a large table, behind plastic shields and with face masks on.)
Researchers deployed Fugaku, the world's fastest supercomputer, to model different situations. Crowded subways pose little risk, if windows are open and passengers wear masks, Mr Nishimura insists. Sitting diagonally, rather than directly across from each other can reduce the risk of infection by 75%. Movie theatres are safe, "even if viewers are eating popcorn and hot dogs", Mr Nishimura says. While most cinemas in the West are closed, "Demon Slayer", a new animeflick, has been playing to full houses in Japan, becoming the country's second-highest grossing film ever. In addition to the 3Cs, the Japanese government warns of five more specific dangers: dinner parties with booze; drinking and eating in groups of more than four; talking without masks at close quarters; living in dormitories and other small shared spaces; and using changing or break rooms.
Of course, these insights would have been for naught if ordinary people had ignored them. But Japanese heeded the government's advice to stay home and to quarantine if showing any symptoms of the coronavirus, even though these admonitions carried no legal force. "Sometimes we are criticised for being an overly homogeneous society, but I think it played a positive role this time," Mr Nishimura says. And already spick-and-span Japan became even more punctilious about hygiene. While Americans argued over whether face coverings were an assault on personal freedom, Japanese lined up outside Uniqlo for the release of its new line of masks. During the first ten weeks of flu season this autumn, Japan saw just 148 cases of common influenza, or less than 1% of the five-year average for the same period (17,000).
Better yet, although the population of Japan is disproportionally elderly, and therefore potentially more vulnerable to covid-19, it is also very healthy. Only 4.2% of Japanese adults are obese, a condition known to make the disease more lethal. That is the lowest rate in the OECD and a tenth of America's. Japan also has a good health-care system, with universal coverage and lots of well-equipped hospitals. It even had lots of already trained contact-tracers, part of an established public-health network dating back to the 1930s.
These advantages clearly have their limits. The virus has spread rapidly in recent weeks, reaching record highs in terms both of daily cases and daily deaths. The government has had to dispatch medical personnel from the Self-Defence Forces to shore up hospitals in the worst-hit spots. But at the same time it has discouraged caution with a scheme that subsidises domestic tourism and meals out, in an effort to help the economy. Although this seems to have contributed to covid-19's recent spread, the government has only curbed it rather than scrapping it. And cold weather is now pushing people into 3C spaces, as it has been across the northern hemisphere. But in Japan, at least, the recent growth in the number of cases has started from a dramatically lower base. ■

[Mandryka]

"Extreme" how? "Overkill" (now there's a poor choice of words) how? Its true that it helps that our border in a huge ocean, but there are plenty of other island nations who haven't found that enough on its own to stop the spread.

I could say some stuff about us having a better sense of community responsibility than I've seen elsewhere, more faith in government and health experts than I've seen elsewhere, and a subtly different notion of what "freedom" means - especially short-term vs long-term. And while all those things may have an element of truth really the success to date here has been one of leadership and trust, and with different leadership but the same population we may have had a very different outcome. A fact that was loudly acknowledged at the last election.

But anyway its to early for anyone to pat themselves on the back - as the govt continues to make clear to us. There's still the very real possibility here that some drongo will sneak out of managed isolation (which has happened on a number of occasions despite security) and start a community transmission that can't be halted with a localized lockdown

Warning. This post is the Spanish Inquisition. Just ignore if annoyed!


1. Where contacts without symptoms tested? What sort of test? How did they get the test? (In the post or at a centre - if the latter, what if they lived very far from the centre?)

2. Were positive contacts asked to self isolate? How were they supported for the loss of earnings? How were they supported for things like getting the groceries? What happened if their living conditions were too cramped to allow them to self isolate? You mention managed isolation - what is it exactly?  How was self isolation policed?

3. Did key workers work when you confined? Did vulnerable children go to school? If so, how did you define a key worker and a vulnerable child?

4. How did people with symptoms get tested - if they lived far from a test centre? Did they give contacts voluntarily? What percentage of their contacts were traced?

5. What were the requirements for distancing on public transport? In retail outlets? In schools when they returned? In work places? We're there any special requirements for ventilation? How was all this policed?

[SimonNZ]

I'll try to answer some of that but I'm going to need some time.

[71 dB]

Can someone explain to me what exactly has gone on in New Zealand? Do they have a winning formula which other freedom loving democracies can follow?

One thing to remember is it's summertime at the moment in New Zealand and that helps. Isolation, competent leaders, well-functioning democracy avoid of corruption and rational population and good corona strategy explain most of it I believe.

[Brass Hole]

Has anyone here been inoculated? Is there a member from Sweden. I'm hearing about some skepticism even resistance in some parts of Europe, especially after the fast-track vaccine failure in 2009

[Mandryka]

I'll try to answer some of that but I'm going to need some time.

Thanks. The problem is to fully understand why it has worked and how transferable it is, it's not easy to find the details through google, though they are online somewhere I'm sure. The details are what matter.

[T. D.]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-10/lawmakers-exposed-to-covid-19-during-attack-physician-says

January 10, 2021, 12:15 PM EST


Lawmakers may have been exposed to the coronavirus while they were held in a secure room during Wednesday's attack on Congress, the Capitol's attending physician said Sunday.

"Many members of the House community were in protective isolation in room located in a large committee hearing space," physician Brian Monahan said in a statement. "During this time, individuals may have been exposed to another occupant with coronavirus infection."

While Monahan's statement didn't specify which room, one video showed dozens of people sheltered in place a committee room in the (sic) as a mob of President Donald Trump's supporters stormed into the Capitol, forcing their way into the House and Senate chambers, lawmakers' offices, and other areas.

The video showed Delaware Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester offering masks to a group of Republicans, including Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene [The QAnon disgrace - TD] of Georgia and Andy Biggs of Arizona, who refused to cover their faces.

[Brian]

Has anyone here been inoculated?

My girlfriend got the vaccine December 29 (in Texas). She had some side effects and slept very hard the rest of the week while her immune system responded. We are now at about 2% of the local population inoculated.

I was just checking this thread to see if other people on GMG had gotten the shot - or gotten the disease.

[Brass Hole]

My girlfriend got the vaccine December 29 (in Texas). She had some side effects and slept very hard the rest of the week while her immune system responded. We are now at about 2% of the local population inoculated.

I was just checking this thread to see if other people on GMG had gotten the shot - or gotten the disease.

Great to hear that. Yes, it says 6.7 million as of last Friday. Is the date set for her second?

[Todd]

After Unused Vaccines Are Thrown in Trash, Cuomo Loosens Rules

Now, employees who interact with the public, including pharmacy cashiers, qualify. It was the second time in two days that the state amended its rules.

[71 dB]

We are not getting vaccines as fast as expected into the country. So far only about 20.000 Finns have been vaccinated. That's about 0.4 % of the population. Meanwhile Israel has managed to get over 10 % of their population vaccinated.  They are hoping the speed going up in February. It's up the to vaccine manufacturers being able to deliver what has been ordered.

[Brian]

Great to hear that. Yes, it says 6.7 million as of last Friday. Is the date set for her second?

The date will be set this week, they are contacting her by email today or tomorrow and I think they will give her a set time rather than a choice of times. (Honestly, if it were me, I would plan my whole day around any time they wanted! Her first shot was administered at 9:30pm because that was the only time left on the schedule.) It should be around January 26-28.

[Irons]

We are not getting vaccines as fast as expected into the country. So far only about 20.000 Finns have been vaccinated. That's about 0.4 % of the population. Meanwhile Israel has managed to get over 10 % of their population vaccinated.  They are hoping the speed going up in February. It's up the to vaccine manufacturers being able to deliver what has been ordered.

Simple, money. Israel is paying Pfizer 40% more for vaccine then US and Europe.

[Iota]

This may seem a small point in light of the bigger picture, but I find this really disappointing/incomprehensible.

With things going crazy at the moment in the UK with the new Covid variant, some people are still choosing to be pointlessly obnoxious to supermarket staff, and reckless with everybody's health, by not wearing masks and getting abusive when asked to. I have no idea if they are of the ludicrous Covid-isn't-real persuasion, or just ignorant, but it doesn't matter, in current circumstances it just seems odiously selfish.

[Mirror Image]

This may seem a small point in light of the bigger picture, but I find this really disappointing/incomprehensible.

With things going crazy at the moment in the UK with the new Covid variant, some people are still choosing to be pointlessly obnoxious to supermarket staff, and reckless with everybody's health, by not wearing masks and getting abusive when asked to. I have no idea if they are of the ludicrous Covid-isn't-real persuasion, or just ignorant, but it doesn't matter, in current circumstances it just seems odiously selfish.

This kind of behavior is rampant here in the US where ignorance must be bliss. I say there should be steep fine for anyone is not wearing a mask. The first offense is $600 (their government COVID stimulus money ) and the second fine will be $1,000. The third would be a $4,000 fine and 24 hrs. in jail with no bond. And God help us if it gets past the second or even third offense, the fourth offense would be $10,000 fine, 24 hrs. in jail plus 80 hrs. (the equivalent of two full-time work weeks in the US) of community service.

[Mandryka]

This may seem a small point in light of the bigger picture, but I find this really disappointing/incomprehensible.

With things going crazy at the moment in the UK with the new Covid variant, some people are still choosing to be pointlessly obnoxious to supermarket staff, and reckless with everybody's health, by not wearing masks and getting abusive when asked to. I have no idea if they are of the ludicrous Covid-isn't-real persuasion, or just ignorant, but it doesn't matter, in current circumstances it just seems odiously selfish.

Well you have to remember that the sort of dirt old face rags that people actually use may be pretty ineffective at best, and actually do more harm than good at worse. Especially against the British mutant killer variant. It's interesting that masks have become so fetishised.

[T. D.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/13/ohio-researchers-say-theyve-identified-two-new-covid-strains-likely-originating-in-the-us.html

[Biffo]

This may seem a small point in light of the bigger picture, but I find this really disappointing/incomprehensible.

With things going crazy at the moment in the UK with the new Covid variant, some people are still choosing to be pointlessly obnoxious to supermarket staff, and reckless with everybody's health, by not wearing masks and getting abusive when asked to. I have no idea if they are of the ludicrous Covid-isn't-real persuasion, or just ignorant, but it doesn't matter, in current circumstances it just seems odiously selfish.

Some people have always been obnoxious to anyone who has to deal with the public. Where I live there is a high percentage of retired people who have had a lifetime of talking down to the lower orders. They were rude and arrogant before the pandemic and will continue to be so after it is over. It is not just retired people but widespread, so much so people from out of town notice it.

[MusicTurner]

Restrictions here in DK now prolonged to the 7th of February. So it'll be at least 6 weeks this time ...

Infections still going down, but there are many fatalities these days, due to the rise in mid-December, 20-40 per day.
The general infection factor of transmission is now down to 0.9, but they'd like it to get down to 0.6, to better fight oncoming virus types. They'll be testing all infected people for the aggressive virus types, a good idea for mapping and fighting developments.

The special mink virus types, mentioned earlier, in 2020, seem to have died out now.

In Germany, talks about prolonging the restrictions for no less than 10 weeks ...