Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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premont

Quote from: Mandryka on July 22, 2021, 06:41:15 AM
That's NEVER going to happen! The vaccines wane, the vaccines are not 100% effective, the variants are easily transmitted, there are ethical problems about vaccinating children.  You've got to find a way of living with it, because it's here to stay.

The only way of living with it is to counterbalance the actual lack of herd immunity with the necessary restrictions. Otherwise you will soon face a pandemic completely out of control.
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Pohjolas Daughter

Quote from: Irons on July 22, 2021, 07:03:37 AM
Agreed. The cure is damaging the UK at present far more then Covid itself. The "pinging" NHS app is a perfect example of this which is creating chaos. Maybe I'm being ultra-pessimistic but ten days off on full pay if my smart phone pings........
I heard this morning (over good ole NPR) about that "pinging" and the subsequent self-isolation for 10 days and that the pinging was on the rise.  By the way, how does that work regarding pay--particularly as far as small businesses are concerned?  Do you have to use up any sick leave and/or vacation time that you (one) have, or???  Who pays?

PD
Pohjolas Daughter

Mandryka

#4642
Quote from: (: premont :) on July 22, 2021, 07:18:08 AM
The only way of living with it is to counterbalance the actual lack of herd immunity with the necessary restrictions. Otherwise you will soon face a pandemic completely out of control.

Can it not just bubble away with an R at about 1?  And of course those who really don't want to catch it will impose the necessary restrictions on themselves.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

premont

Quote from: Mandryka on July 22, 2021, 09:02:49 AM
Can it not just bubble away with an R at about 1?

The latest estimate from our experts is that 86% of the population must be immune to the Delta variant, if one wants R to be below 1.

Quote from: Mandryka
And of course those who really don't want to catch it will impose the necessary restrictions on themselves.

If the virus is allowed to spread freely before a sufficient number of people are vaccinated, the people in the vulnerable group (some suffering from different diseases and others for whom the effect of vaccination for unknown reasons is insufficient - at least 10% of the population in all) will have to isolate themselves completely and even avoid contact with their closest relatives. So for them the necessary limitations are enormous.

And it is not that they just don't want to catch the virus, - it's a matter of life or death.
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Mandryka

#4644
Quote from: (: premont :) on July 22, 2021, 11:13:52 AM
The latest estimate from our experts is that 86% of the population must be immune to the Delta variant, if one wants R to be below 1.


When you say immune to the delta variant, what do you mean? Fully vaccinated people seem to be less likely to transmit a dose, to develop symptoms, to develop serious symptoms, to die. All at different rates.

I'd be interested to see the model, if the paper is in a language I can understand.

Quote from: (: premont :) on July 22, 2021, 11:13:52 AM


If the virus is allowed to spread freely before a sufficient number of people are vaccinated, the people in the vulnerable group (some suffering from different diseases and others for whom the effect of vaccination for unknown reasons is insufficient - at least 10% of the population in all) will have to isolate themselves completely and even avoid contact with their closest relatives. So for them the necessary limitations are enormous.

And it is not that they just don't want to catch the virus, - it's a matter of life or death.

I don't have an answer to this set of serious problems, especially given my interrogations about what a "sufficient number of people are vaccinated" is and about the ethics of vaccinating children. 

Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

premont

Quote from: Mandryka on July 22, 2021, 11:20:16 AM
When you say immune to the delta variant, what do you mean. Fully vaccinated people seem to be less likely to transmit a dose, to develop symptoms, to develop serious symptoms, to die. All at different rates.

I'd be interested to see the model, if the paper is in a language I can understand.

I don't have an answer to this set of serious problems, especially given my interrogations about what a "sufficient number of people are vaccinated" is and about the ethics of vaccinating children.

Immunity means that one neither catches the virus nor transmits it actively. Anyway because a number of the vaccinated people still catches and maybe transmits the virus, the number of vaccinated people must be higher than the degree of immunity one wants to obtain. I have not seen the details of the calculations are published, maybe Music Turner knows.

Concerning vaccination of children: Vaccination against Rubella is offered to boys also, even if they as well as never get problems themselves when contracting the disease. They are vaccinated to prevent that they, if they contract the disease, transmit it to a susceptible person in this case a pregnant woman - high risk of serious foetus problems with this disease. So here is a parallel to the corona issue.
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Mandryka

Quote from: (: premont :) on July 22, 2021, 11:47:56 AM

Concerning vaccination of children: Vaccination against Rubella is offered to boys also, even if they as well as never get problems themselves when contracting the disease. They are vaccinated to prevent that they, if they contract the disease, transmit it to a susceptible person in this case a pregnant woman - high risk of serious foetus problems with this disease. So here is a parallel to the corona issue.

I didn't know that, and I don't know whether the risk of a serious side effect from the rubella vaccine is greater than for the covid vaccines, in children. Anyway the UK strategy of vaccinating just children at higher risk from COVID and those living with particularly vulnerable adults seems to me an ingenious compromise.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

premont

Quote from: Mandryka on July 22, 2021, 12:03:55 PM
I didn't know that, and I don't know whether the risk of a serious side effect from the rubella vaccine is greater than for the covid vaccines, in children. Anyway the UK strategy of vaccinating just children at higher risk from COVID and those living with particularly vulnerable adults seems to me an ingenious compromise.

We haven't here had any serious side effects neither from Rubella vaccine nor from the RNA vaccines.

To me the important point is that corona vaccination of children is optional. Yes, I know,  in the end it's up to the parents to decide, but so is it even as to Rubella vaccine.
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VonStupp

#4648
Quote from: (: premont :) on July 22, 2021, 12:29:24 PM
We haven't here had any serious side effects neither from Rubella vaccine nor from the RNA vaccines.

To me the important point is that corona vaccination of children is optional. Yes, I know,  in the end it's up to the parents to decide, but so is it even as to Rubella vaccine.

I am unsure how it works in other spots of the globe, but in the United States, students are required to have Polio, Diphtheria, whooping cough, tetanus, rubella, measles, mumps, Chickenpox, and in some areas, Hepatitis B vaccines before entering public school. Where I live, there are religious exemptions for these vaccines, particularly from the Amish and Mennonites, but they tend to school their own children.

Now, some US universities are requiring Covid-19 vaccines to gain entrance. However, with the political nexus surrounding the vaccine, I don't see a nationwide mandate in our future for school-aged children. When they become available for youths, that is.
"All the good music has already been written by people with wigs and stuff."

Que

Quote from: Que on July 17, 2021, 02:34:16 AM



So, there we go. The Netherlands have turned deep red... Our southern brethren in Belgium turned orange. Luxemburg red as well.

And all the holiday destinations are warming up infection wise. With the French Côte d 'Azur, Croatia (Dalmatian Coast) and Greece joining in with Portugal, Spain, Malta and Cyprus. Somehow Italy is still managing to keep infections low.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/situation-updates/weekly-maps-coordinated-restriction-free-movement


Further spreading of the Delta variant:



premont

Quote from: Mandryka on July 22, 2021, 11:20:16 AM
When you say immune to the delta variant, what do you mean? Fully vaccinated people seem to be less likely to transmit a dose, to develop symptoms, to develop serious symptoms, to die. All at different rates.

I read the article a bit too fast. The estimate is that 86% of the population need to be fully vaccinated before we are near having herd immunity. And this is still many. However the expert thinks, that this will be achieved here in 2 - 3 months.
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Que

Quote from: (: premont :) on July 23, 2021, 04:27:40 AM
I read the article a bit too fast. The estimate is that 86% of the population need to be fully vaccinated before we are near having herd immunity. And this is still many. However the expert thinks, that this will be achieved here in 2 - 3 months.

Indications are that we might reach that mark in the Netherlands, as the number of vaccine "hesitants" is steadily declining.
We might end up in the upper 80s or just over the 90% mark.

Mandryka

#4652
Quote from: (: premont :) on July 23, 2021, 04:27:40 AM
I read the article a bit too fast. The estimate is that 86% of the population need to be fully vaccinated before we are near having herd immunity. And this is still many. However the expert thinks, that this will be achieved here in 2 - 3 months.



We are pretty well there, and all set to exceed it very soon. So if you want to know what the effect of 86% vaccinated is, you'll see it in the UK.

I've never studied epidemiology. My impression is that as a place approaches herd immunity the growth should slow down. All herd immunity means is that the reproduction rate is less than 1 without non-pharmaceutical interventions. When that happens, there will be a long slow decline in numbers.

Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

krummholz

Quote from: Mandryka on July 22, 2021, 06:41:15 AM
That's NEVER going to happen! The vaccines wane, the vaccines are not 100% effective, the variants are easily transmitted, there are ethical problems about vaccinating children.  You've got to find a way of living with it, because it's here to stay.

I agree (mostly). But that doesn't mean we should lift all restrictions. In areas where herd immunity has already been reached (as is likely in my state), sure. Everywhere else, people should at the very least still be masking up.

As to vaccines waning: sure, boosters will be needed. But once herd immunity is reached, it can (hopefully) be maintained. The fact that vaccines are not 100% effective is not a barrier to herd immunity - they don't HAVE to be 100% effective.

Ethical problems with vaccinating children? I don't see any, and likely that will happen in most countries fairly soon.

Que

Quote from: (: premont :) on July 23, 2021, 04:27:40 AM
I read the article a bit too fast. The estimate is that 86% of the population need to be fully vaccinated before we are near having herd immunity. And this is still many. However the expert thinks, that this will be achieved here in 2 - 3 months.

Quote from: Mandryka on July 23, 2021, 05:56:36 AM
We are pretty well there, and all set to exceed it very soon. So if you want to know what the effect of 86% vaccinated is, you'll see it in the UK.

Possibly. Apart from the transmissibility of the (variant) of the virus, the threshold for group immunity depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine(s) that were used. The effectiveness of the different vacciness against the Delta variant varies, and different countries have used different vaccines. So the threshold for group immunity will vary as well from country to country. The less effective the vaccines used, the higher the threshold for group immunity.

The UK predominantly used a less effective vaccine - AstraZeneca. This why in the UK a "booster" with Pfizer (or Moderna) is being discussed to increase the effectiveness of vaccination.

premont

Quote from: Que on July 23, 2021, 07:46:24 AM
Possibly. Apart from the transmissibility of the (variant) of the virus, the threshold for group immunity depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine(s) that were used. The effectiveness of the different vacciness against the Delta variant varies, and different countries have used different vaccines. So the threshold for group immunity will vary as well from country to country. The less effective the vaccines used, the higher the threshold for group immunity.

The UK predominantly used a less effective vaccine - AstraZeneca. This why in the UK a "booster" with Pfizer (or Moderna) is being discussed to increase the effectiveness of vaccination.

Yes, that's some important points. The estimate from the Danish expert includes the Delta variant and the fact, that almost all Danes have got the Pfizer vaccine or the Moderna vaccine. Only about 200.000 (about 3%) have got the Astra-Zeneca vaccine.
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premont

Quote from: Mandryka on July 23, 2021, 05:56:36 AM

I've never studied epidemiology. My impression is that as a place approaches herd immunity the growth should slow down. All herd immunity means is that the reproduction rate is less than 1 without non-pharmaceutical interventions. When that happens, there will be a long slow decline in numbers.

Yes, herd immunity in usual speaking means the degree of immunity which causes the R to fall below 1, so that the epidemic diminishes and eventually (hopefully) dies out.
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Mandryka

Quote from: Que on July 23, 2021, 07:46:24 AM


The UK predominantly used a less effective vaccine - AstraZeneca. This why in the UK a "booster" with Pfizer (or Moderna) is being discussed to increase the effectiveness of vaccination.

Less effective at what? I mean, what type of effectiveness counts for the sort of community level immunity we're seeking? If it's about reducing transmission and hospitalisation, then, well  . . . look at the AZ data again maybe.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Mandryka

#4658
Quote from: (: premont :) on July 23, 2021, 08:54:02 AM
Yes, herd immunity in usual speaking means the degree of immunity which causes the R to fall below 1, so that the epidemic diminishes and eventually (hopefully) dies out.

Well as I said here in a discussion a couple of weeks ago, I don't think that this is something vaccination can achieve. That's to say the vaccines cut transmission by X% and the R0 of delta is Y and 1- X% of Y is still greater than 1. I think the relevant numbers were X=75% and Y = 5 or 6.  I don't have a solution to the problems this brings with it -- except that the vaccines make the diseases mostly less severe -- but as you know, not for everyone, there are breakthroughs.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

MusicTurner

#4659
Quote from: (: premont :) on July 23, 2021, 08:42:18 AM
Yes, that's some important points. The estimate from the Danish expert includes the Delta variant and the fact, that almost all Danes have got the Pfizer vaccine or the Moderna vaccine. Only about 200.000 (about 3%) have got the Astra-Zeneca vaccine.

I think it's even less, less than 160,000, and only 1500 of them got the second shot of A-Z; 190 took the vaccine by their own choice, when that option came recently, to jump the queues for Pfizer and Moderna.
https://laegemiddelstyrelsen.dk/da/nyheder/2021/status-paa-behandlede-indberetninger-om-formodede-bivirkninger-ved-vaxzevria-astrazeneca,-uge-27/

It's somehow interesting how the Delta variant, in spite of now consisting of 90% of infections here, hasn't meant a really continuous rise in the relatively modest infection levels in Denmark, compared to say UK. They've been stable for some time now, certainly at least a week. Neither in hospitalizations. New infections are mainly concentrated among unvaccinated people in their 20s. The current local restrictions are few. We'll reach 50% fully vaccinated tomorrow, and 70% with the first shot only.

Of course, people returning from their holidays, especially abroad say in Spain etc., may cause a rise here again.

Also, a big, local study found that only a minute number of vaccinated here got the virus afterwards.

They'll try to repeat the studies in August, to see if there's any change, including because of more Delta cases.