Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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Mandryka

Quote from: Florestan on July 31, 2021, 07:57:55 AM
Democracy was always an illusion / delusion.

We are living in that eternal, neverchanging, unchanging form of government --- oligarchy!

It can disguise itself as democracy --- yet it will always stay the same.

The few will always rule over the many.

We are living in parliamentary capitalism.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Karl Henning

Quote from: Mandryka on July 31, 2021, 06:21:10 AM
Yes. But the problem in the UK is not with the general public, it is with the media and with the scientists themselves. The media oversimplify and encourage people to think the worst, because fear sells papers and makes for clicks. And the scientists themselves, for political or other reasons, present their view as the truth when in fact it is highly debatable. 

The third problem, and maybe the most conceptually difficult, is that managing the crisis is much much more than science. The covid crisis is not caused by a virus. It is caused by the interaction of a virus with society. And so the best way to manage it is determined by both health science and social science - political, economic, psychological, moral -  considerations.

There is a concept in politics of populism -- the idea is that political leaders influence media to  present grossly oversimplified views about economy or crime or whatever, in order to curry favour with the public.  In the UK we see all the time covid populism from Government and Opposition, from civil service scientists and from independent scientists  -- a gross oversimplification of issues to do with border controls, masks, making schools safe, travel restrictions, employers' responsibilities, quarantine etc.

Points well taken. Here in the US, at least, atop legitimate concerns that the media ain't doing their job properly, is the kneejerk know-nothingism of the MAGA-verse, a depressingly true likeness of the disgraced former president's "intellect," feeding on conspiracy-theory clickbait, and serving as throughput for rubbish.

Pace Andrei, I don't see the US Left kissing experts' asses (what a fellow he can be) but looking for reliable information in an "information ecosystem" which numerous and tireless bad-faith actors continually pollute.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Karl Henning

Quote from: Florestan on July 31, 2021, 08:15:26 AM
See you in Heaven, Karl! I trust for certain we'll meet again!

I think, friend, you mistake me.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Karl Henning

Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Karl Henning

Quote from: Florestan on July 31, 2021, 08:54:52 AM
There was a time , Karl, when I thought you were a convinced Orthodox Christian. Nowadays it seems to me you are no more any such fellow -- you're even a non-Christian at heart.

What a curious statement.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

71 dB

Quote from: krummholz on July 31, 2021, 05:51:14 AM
The problem is that the general public does not understand how science works - at least here in the US.

That's due to failure of the education system. That can be fixed by transforming the schools into places that effectively teach scientific literacy.
Spatial distortion is a serious problem deteriorating headphone listening.
Crossfeeders reduce spatial distortion and make the sound more natural
and less tiresome in headphone listening.

My Sound Cloud page <-- NEW Jan. 2024 "Harpeggiator"

Karl Henning

Quote from: Florestan on July 31, 2021, 08:54:52 AM
There was a time , Karl, when I thought you were a convinced Orthodox Christian. Nowadays it seems to me you are no more any such fellow -- you're even a non-Christian at heart.

I am a mere sinner, yet I'll pray for you, my brother!

May Jesus Christ Our Lord have mercy on our souls!

I certainly appreciate your prayers!
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

premont

Quote from: Florestan on July 31, 2021, 07:02:25 AM
The blind faith in science/scientists is just as irrational as the blind faith in this or that religion and their priests that some scientists decry.

Faith in religion is always blind, because it never builds upon facts.

Science builds upon experimental facts, but they are always relative and objects to continual revision. Every scientist knows this.

γνῶθι σεαυτόν

Karl Henning

Quote from: 71 dB on July 31, 2021, 09:56:54 AM
That's due to failure of the education system. That can be fixed by transforming the schools into places that effectively teach scientific literacy.

They did, on a time.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Karl Henning

Quote from: (: premont :) on July 30, 2021, 02:36:48 PM
Quite a difference between 1% and 75%.  ???

Certainly a vaccine success story, looked at like that.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

premont

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on July 31, 2021, 11:24:46 AM
Certainly a vaccine success story, looked at like that.

Too good to be true, I think.
γνῶθι σεαυτόν

Karl Henning

Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

SimonNZ

#4772
I get a kick out of people who use their personal computers and the internet to give voice to anti science rubbish.


Quote from: Florestan on July 31, 2021, 06:44:37 AM

As a close acquaintance of mine told me recently, if a "famous expert" told on prime air TV that kissing each other asses increases the IQ, three quarters of the populace would instantly start doing just that.


One famous expert? With no consensus from the wider and disparate scientific community? And without presenting evidence or argument? This is something you - and your "close acquaintance " - actually believe is it?

Karl Henning

Yet, Gov. De Santis doesn't think his "performance" can possibly improved upon:

"Florida breaks record with more than 21,000 new COVID cases; Mask guidance divides parents heading into new school year."
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Karl Henning

Quote from: Dr. Irwin RedlenerThe latest data is showing us something very important: that with the new Delta variant, the viral load, the amount of virus carried by an infected person, is the same whether or not that person has been vaccinated. This is a different situation than we understood before, with previous variants and the original virus, because all three of the vaccinations available here—Moderna, Pfizer, and J&J—were able to suppress the amount of virus. Not eliminate it, necessarily, but certainly we were seeing big differences in the virus load being carried by vaccinated versus unvaccinated. That no longer seems to be the case. Even though the vaccines will, by and large, prevent very serious illness or death in a person who gets infected with the Delta variant, it turns out that the vaccines do not suppress the amount of virus in a person's body.

Which means that we can tell you as a vaccinated person, you're very, very likely going to be protected from having to go on a ventilator or die. But what we can not say is that you'll have less virus that you could then spread around. That makes you, as a vaccinated person, a potential threat to people who are still vulnerable. And we have a situation in the United States where we have 100 million people or so who have never had the disease, and who have never been vaccinated and who are vulnerable to getting infected by a vaccinated person who's contracted the Delta variant.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Karl Henning

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on July 31, 2021, 08:10:41 AM
Points well taken. Here in the US, at least, atop legitimate concerns that the media ain't doing their job properly, is the kneejerk know-nothingism of the MAGA-verse, a depressingly true likeness of the disgraced former president's "intellect," feeding on conspiracy-theory clickbait, and serving as throughput for rubbish.

Pace Andrei, I don't see the US Left kissing experts' asses (what a fellow he can be) but looking for reliable information in an "information ecosystem" which numerous and tireless bad-faith actors continually pollute.

So we have what Trump has done intentionally to undermine the credibility of science, coupled with the fact that we keep learning new data.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Mandryka

#4776
Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on July 31, 2021, 04:24:14 PM


I think this is a good example of covid populism, an example of why science has got a bad name in the pandemic. The problem, and it is a serious one, is in the first clause: the latest data showing us something very important. The paper in question does not show anything - the sample is too small for that. It suggests something possibly, an area for further investigation, an unlikely possibility. But it doesn't show anything.

But here we see it used to project the scientist Redlener into a prime media position, someone who knows an important fact, a voice who gives us a solemn warning. And we all know that fear means clicks, and clicks mean money.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Holden

Quote from: Mandryka on July 31, 2021, 06:21:10 AM
Yes. But the problem in the UK is not with the general public, it is with the media and with the scientists themselves. The media oversimplify and encourage people to think the worst, because fear sells papers and makes for clicks. And the scientists themselves, for political or other reasons, present their view as the truth when in fact it is highly debatable. 

The third problem, and maybe the most conceptually difficult, is that managing the crisis is much much more than science. The covid crisis is not caused by a virus. It is caused by the interaction of a virus with society. And so the best way to manage it is determined by both health science and social science - political, economic, psychological, moral -  considerations.

There is a concept in politics of populism -- the idea is that political leaders influence media to  present grossly oversimplified views about economy or crime or whatever, in order to curry favour with the public.  In the UK we see all the time covid populism from Government and Opposition, from civil service scientists and from independent scientists  -- a gross oversimplification of issues to do with border controls, masks, making schools safe, travel restrictions, employers' responsibilities, quarantine etc.

You and I are on the same page Howard and especially in the first paragraph. One phrase I like is "civil service scientists" and every country has one who is deemed to be an expert and their political motives are not questioned.
Cheers

Holden

Stürmisch Bewegt

Welcome to my town, St. Louis, USA. This has gone far beyond mere sport, political preference, racism, or lack of education, etc : THIS is socio-pathology in action.  https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/01/us/st-louis-mask-meeting-covid-19-positive/index.html 
Leben heißt nicht zu warten, bis der Sturm vorbeizieht, sondern lernen, im Regen zu tanzen.

Mandryka

There is, I think, something really strange happening in England, which isn't being taken up by the media. As far as I can see, hospital admissions have started to plateau.

Case numbers from testing figures are way below where people expected, no-one is sure why. But cases are hard to get a grip on, admissions data is a more secure indication of the progress of the epidemic.

If I'm right that it's plateauing, it's a mystery at the moment.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen