Coronavirus thread

[Mandryka]

Antibody levels above 90% in every nation of the UK - ONS
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies


Can anyone who knows about science tell me what this means as far as the COVID crisis is concerned? What does it mean for incidence, for symptoms, that sort of stuff?

[prémont]

Antibody levels above 90% in every nation of the UK - ONS
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/antibodies


Can anyone who knows about science tell me what this means as far as the COVID crisis is concerned? What does it mean for incidence, for symptoms, that sort of stuff?

This may be of interest (if you haven't read it already):

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-94719-y

[prémont]

That the actual vaccines to a large extent protect against serious symptomps, if one catches the covid19 but don't protect against infection as such to the same degree - at least what concerns the Delta variant -  means, that the Delta variant possibly can't be eradicated with the help of the existing vaccines, because there will still be a number of asymptomatic infections to maintain the virus, even if vaccinated people may be less contagious than unvaccinated people.. And this will also mean, that the risk of the emergence of vaccine resistant virus variants or more virulent variants still will be there.

[MusicTurner]

State scientific authorities here, the SSI, backing out on the question of attaining any complete herd immunity via vaccines: due to mutations, it will be unattainable, even with a vaccination level of 85% or more among the population. 100% coverage simply won't be possible, the vaccines aren't 100% protective, and there are imported cases all the time too.

Therefore, the aim must be to 1) reduce and halt the level of infections in society 2) reduce its dangerousness to health 3) think of it now rather as an ordinary flu, not that much of a disaster any longer; psychologically we're also much more used to flus as a re-occurring phenomenon 4) moreover: epidemics tend to die out after 2-5 years, an expert says. This might be the case here too.

1) - 2) has generally been attained here; the number of fatalities is now extremely low.

Supposedly this also means another argument for the impossibility of gaining any 'natural herd immunity'.

But generally, not very uplifting news for those of us who hope for a quick return to just the risk picture of 'the old days'.

[Florestan]

3) think of it now rather as an ordinary flu, not that much of a disaster any longer; psychologically we're also much more used to flus as a re-occurring phenomenon 4) moreover: epidemics tend to die out after 2-5 years, an expert says. This might be the case here too.

Those who dared to suggest that have been lambasted as ignorant and anti-science until quite recently. Today the stance is promoted by state scientific authorities. How very interesting.

[Que]

Those who dared to suggest that have been lambasted as ignorant and anti-science until quite recently. Today the stance is promoted by state scientific authorities. How very interesting.

Though the future epidemiological situation of the virus might resemble that of influenza, it's health impact is definitely not.

The other day a met young, healthy, sporty woman in her late 20s who has had COVID, contracted at a party with friends.
Most of them got infected. Now she has trouble walking steadily, because her legs are shaking....

[Florestan]

Though the future epidemiological situation of the virus might resemble that of influenza, it's health impact is definitely not.

The other day a met young, healthy, sporty woman in her late 20s who has had COVID, contracted at a party with friends.
Most of them got infected. Now she has trouble walking steadily, because her legs are shaking....

According to the CDC website (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/symptoms.htm)

flu symptoms in adults may include severe weakness or unsteadiness.

And on the same anecdotal level, my father-in-law has two comorbidities, both life-threatening, both in advanced stages. He had asymptomatic Covid --- actually, had it not been for the antibodies test, we wouldn't even have known he had it.

[Spotted Horses]

The other day a met young, healthy, sporty woman in her late 20s who has had COVID, contracted at a party with friends.
Most of them got infected. Now she has trouble walking steadily, because her legs are shaking....

How long ago did she contract it?

[MusicTurner]

There was a lot of uncertainty and fear about this new disease and its effects when it came up, and we're making progress in analyzing it, but that work is still going on. I remember reading just a couple of months into the events, that some experts expected between 5 and 22 million fatalities from the virus, plus a breakdown in Western health sectors, and thinking that it seemed astronomical, compared to the rather minute, actual numbers back then. Yet we're now at 4.3 mio fatalities world-wide. This in the light of the vaccine work that has been unexpectedly quick, and is starting to reduce the number of dead. The Spanish Flu, occurring when science was poorer, cost 50 mio dead, or 10% of the infected. There's no doubt that political or scientific apathy towards Corona would have resulted in many more fatalities and health sector problems.

Obviously, some countries and regions have fared better than others in dealing with the virus, including treatment options. Some have been severely hit, and their health sectors overburdened. A good deal are able to suggest that the worst as regards fatalities is probably over, provided that mutations don't get worse. But also, investigations for example concerning the apparently low fatality rates in Africa now suggest that they're probably the result of a poor health sector and registration in many places, the actual numbers being much higher. The same was probably the case for Russia too, etc.

[Que]

How long ago did she contract it?

She fell ill a month ago.

[Mandryka]

Though the future epidemiological situation of the virus might resemble that of influenza, it's health impact is definitely not.

The other day a met young, healthy, sporty woman in her late 20s who has had COVID, contracted at a party with friends.
Most of them got infected. Now she has trouble walking steadily, because her legs are shaking....

Horrible experience for her. I think this sort of thing can happen with all viral diseases, including flu and gastroentgeritis (which I think is a better analogy to covid than flu in fact, because of IBS being a long form.)

Whether long forms are more likely or more serious with covid, and whether the vaccines help, is anyone's guess.


(Que -- do you think there's any chance that Holland will let me in without quarantine? I see that France will now, but I really want to go to Holland! Josquin calls.)

[Spotted Horses]

Horrible experience for her. I think this sort of thing can happen with all viral diseases, including flu and gastroentgeritis (which I think is a better analogy to covid than flu in fact, because of IBS being a long form.)

Whether long forms are more likely or more serious with covid, and whether the vaccines help, is anyone's guess.

In a typical year flu kills somewhere around 30,000 people in the U.S., with no social distancing measures and a generally lax attitude about coming to work when sick, etc. Covid killed about 500,000 people in the U.S. in a year, with unprecentended (but inconsistent) social distancing and protective measures. There is no comparison. And "long covid" in people who had initially mild or asymptomatic cases is a big unknown. How long is long? A year, or forever?

It's going to become endemic. The best hope is that a fully vaccinated population benefit from dramatically reduced incidence of severe disease, and that the vaccine also suppresses "long covid." That's unknown. (I've seen some reports that people with long covid felt improvement after being vaccinated, but that is anecdotal and doesn't particularly make sense. If covid is already in their system the vaccine is supposedly superfluous.)

The valid issue about the short timeline of vaccine testing is not safety, but the fact that the long term efficiency of the vaccine is almost completely unknown. Given the severity of the public health issue, going ahead with a largely vaccine which had only been tested for shot-term effectiveness was justified.

I think we need a world with a lot less travel. Easy for me to say, since I will never travel again, myself, Covid or no Covid.

[Mandryka]

In a typical year flu kills somewhere around 30,000 people in the U.S., with no social distancing measures and a generally lax attitude about coming to work when sick, etc. Covid killed about 500,000 people in the U.S. in a year, with unprecentended (but inconsistent) social distancing and protective measures.

Sure, but my thinking whether in a vaccinated population COVID and flu are comparable.

I think we need a world with a lot less travel. Easy for me to say, since I will never travel again, myself, Covid or no Covid.

A lot depends here on what travel means. You're in the US -- do we need a world where people can't travel so freely from New York to LA? Or just a world where people can't travel so freely from Madrid to Athens, or Egypt to Capetown?

[MusicTurner]

In this ever-evolving subject, CNN now tells that US intelligence has obtained samples of various virus samples from the Wuhan laboratory, trying to establish the origins of it, and including whether the virus could actually be a laboratory or scientific experiment that got out of hand.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/05/politics/covid-origins-genetic-data-wuhan-lab/index.html

[Florestan]

The Black Death occured when travel as we know it was virtually unkown. It took the lives of at least 75 mio people, some estimates even giving the frightening number of 200 mio people --- thus making Covid-19 look like a stroll in the park.

The "Spanish" Flu --- btw, if a flu that didn't originated in Spain is called Spanish, what's wrong with calling Chinese a "flu" which did originate in China? --- claimed the lives of between 17 and 100 mio lives --- thus making Covid-19 look like a stroll in the park.

I think we need a world with a lot less irrational fear of death.

[Florestan]

In this ever-evolving subject, CNN now tells that US intelligence has obtained samples of various virus samples from the Wuhan laboratory, trying to establish the origins of it, and including whether the virus could actually be a laboratory or scientific experiment that got out of hand.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/05/politics/covid-origins-genetic-data-wuhan-lab/index.html

Sweet!

Just take a look at this very thread from a year ago and see what treatment people got, who dared to even contemplate, let alone suggest, that the virus could actually be a laboratory or scientific experiment that got out of hand.

[Mandryka]

The Black Death occured when travel as we know it was virtually unkown. It took the lives of at least 75 mio people, some estimates even giving the frightening number of 200 mio people --- thus making Covid-19 look like a stroll in the park.

The "Spanish" Flu --- btw, if a flu that didn't originated in Spain is called Spanish, what's wrong with calling Chinese a "flu" which did originate in China? --- claimed the lives of between 17 and 100 mio lives --- thus making Covid-19 look like a stroll in the park.

I think we need a world with a lot less irrational fear of death.

Which of these two poems do you prefer?

Death, be not proud, though some have called thee
Mighty and dreadful, for thou art not so;
For those whom thou think'st thou dost overthrow
Die not, poor Death, nor yet canst thou kill me.
From rest and sleep, which but thy pictures be,
Much pleasure; then from thee much more must flow,
And soonest our best men with thee do go,
Rest of their bones, and soul's delivery.
Thou art slave to fate, chance, kings, and desperate men,
And dost with poison, war, and sickness dwell,
And poppy or charms can make us sleep as well
And better than thy stroke; why swell'st thou then?
One short sleep past, we wake eternally
And death shall be no more; Death, thou shalt die.

Or

I work all day, and get half-drunk at night.   
Waking at four to soundless dark, I stare.   
In time the curtain-edges will grow light.   
Till then I see what's really always there:   
Unresting death, a whole day nearer now,   
Making all thought impossible but how   
And where and when I shall myself die.   
Arid interrogation: yet the dread
Of dying, and being dead,
Flashes afresh to hold and horrify.

The mind blanks at the glare. Not in remorse   
—The good not done, the love not given, time   
Torn off unused—nor wretchedly because   
An only life can take so long to climb
Clear of its wrong beginnings, and may never;   
But at the total emptiness for ever,
The sure extinction that we travel to
And shall be lost in always. Not to be here,   
Not to be anywhere,
And soon; nothing more terrible, nothing more true.

This is a special way of being afraid
No trick dispels. Religion used to try,
That vast moth-eaten musical brocade
Created to pretend we never die,
And specious stuff that says No rational being
Can fear a thing it will not feel, not seeing
That this is what we fear—no sight, no sound,   
No touch or taste or smell, nothing to think with,   
Nothing to love or link with,
The anaesthetic from which none come round.

And so it stays just on the edge of vision,   
A small unfocused blur, a standing chill   
That slows each impulse down to indecision.   
Most things may never happen: this one will,   
And realisation of it rages out
In furnace-fear when we are caught without   
People or drink. Courage is no good:
It means not scaring others. Being brave   
Lets no one off the grave.
Death is no different whined at than withstood.

Slowly light strengthens, and the room takes shape.   
It stands plain as a wardrobe, what we know,   
Have always known, know that we can't escape,   
Yet can't accept. One side will have to go.
Meanwhile telephones crouch, getting ready to ring   
In locked-up offices, and all the uncaring
Intricate rented world begins to rouse.
The sky is white as clay, with no sun.
Work has to be done.
Postmen like doctors go from house to house.

[Florestan]

Which of these two poems do you prefer?

Donne's by a wide margin. Larkin's strikes me as exactly the incoherent ramblings of a "half-drunk at night".

[Mandryka]

Donne's by a wide margin. Larkin's strikes me as exactly the incoherent ramblings of a "half-drunk at night".

Donne strikes me as having partook of the opium of the people, poor deluded soul material body. That vast moth-eaten musical brocade / Created to pretend we never die,

[Florestan]

Donne strikes me as having partook of the opium of the people

I'd rather partake of that than of the opium of the intellectuals.

Cf. Romans 1:22 (KJV)  - Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

pretend we never die

But we never die. Do you have conclusive evidence to the contrary?

If you have, please adduce it in PM. I wouldn't like to be accused time and again of trying to derail threads.