Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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Florestan

#5820
Quote from: drogulus on November 27, 2021, 11:16:10 AM
In Romania, the first dose of the monovalent measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) was introduced in 1979 for children aged 9–11 months, and the second dose (MCV2) was implemented in 1994 for children 6–7 years of age. The replacement of the first dose by the trivalent measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine occurred in 2004, with the recommended age of inoculation being 12–15 months. The second dose was scheduled as part of school-based vaccination programs, and was aimed at children aged 6–7 years. In 2015, the standard age for inoculation with the second dose of the MMR vaccine was lowered to 5 years of age and the vaccine's delivery was moved to health centers instead of schools.

After the introduction of the measles-containing vaccine in 1979, the dynamics of the disease changed, exhibiting a decreased annual incidence and longer inter-epidemic periods. As opposed to the pre-vaccine era, when the average yearly incidence (per 100,000 population) exceeded 500, the magnitude of this value was almost 10 times lower from 1980 to 1999.

The only word missing from the above is mandatory. Instead there is the word recommended. I can assure you that to the best of my knowledge no Romanian kid was ever expelled from school and no Romanian parent was fined or jailed for not being, or not allowing to be, vaccinated.

Be it as it may, let's play by your rules: please tell us what is the difference between the Romanian-made measles-containing vaccine in 1979 and the rMNA anti-Covid-19 vaccines in 2020?

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     Link

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Karl Henning

Quote from: drogulus on November 27, 2021, 11:16:10 AM
In Romania, the first dose of the monovalent measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) was introduced in 1979 for children aged 9–11 months, and the second dose (MCV2) was implemented in 1994 for children 6–7 years of age. The replacement of the first dose by the trivalent measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine occurred in 2004, with the recommended age of inoculation being 12–15 months. The second dose was scheduled as part of school-based vaccination programs, and was aimed at children aged 6–7 years. In 2015, the standard age for inoculation with the second dose of the MMR vaccine was lowered to 5 years of age and the vaccine's delivery was moved to health centers instead of schools.

After the introduction of the measles-containing vaccine in 1979, the dynamics of the disease changed, exhibiting a decreased annual incidence and longer inter-epidemic periods. As opposed to the pre-vaccine era, when the average yearly incidence (per 100,000 population) exceeded 500, the magnitude of this value was almost 10 times lower from 1980 to 1999.


     Link

Gosh! Even in Romania!
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

amw

Quote from: Mandryka on November 27, 2021, 11:34:34 AM
In the long term there is a tendency for the variants to be less lethal. However for all we know omicron may be more deadly than delta, and I don't see that you can say that it is less likely to be more deadly. But to some extent in the first world the issue is not how lethal the variant is, it is how well the variant can break through immunity already acquired - especially through vaccination. In less developed countries the situation is different of course.
We have very limited data; just a handful of initial reports. It could easily turn out to be more deadly—and therefore more easily containable, like most of the variants after Delta (Lambda, Mu, etc) that were designated "variants of concern" because of a deadlier symptom profile but proved unable to spread quickly and thus never ended up displacing Delta.

Delta is arguably a worst-case scenario—a variant that's less deadly than the wild-type, but still deadly enough to kill twenty to thirty percent of hospitalised patients; three times more transmissible, such that its wider reach ended up causing many more deaths than the wild-type had; and more resistant to vaccines (specifically the T cell response). Every new variant since then has come up against diminishing returns: highly transmissible but mild enough that the immune system can eliminate it before it can reproduce and overtake Delta in genome prevalence, or deadly enough that it burns out rapidly against the combination of vaccinations and social distancing protocols and therefore isn't as transmissible as Delta. Eventually we'll likely get a variant that's, say, six times more transmissible than the wild-type (R0 of 12) while still being severe enough or sufficiently mutated to escape vaccines/the immune system, and that variant will be capable of outcompeting Delta over time, and if that variant still kills, say, ten percent of hospitalised patients it'll produce a new mass casualty wave equivalent to Delta. But hopefully by that time someone will have a workable model for predicting future SCV2 mutations and by the time the following major variant of concern emerges there will be annual covid shots tailored in advance to that season's likely mutations/avenues of immune escape, just as we have our flu shots now. This could take another two or three years, and I doubt Western countries will be the first to get there. (It would be trivially easy to tweak an mRNA vaccine into targeting a slightly different protein or whatever, but the Euro-American cash will dry up and Pfizer & Moderna will lose interest as a result. I suspect someone will leak the specifications to India or Vietnam or South Africa or Cuba or whatever, or some hotshot scientists in Bangkok will independently create their own mRNA vaccines, and they'll be the first to actually try it.)

Karl Henning

Quote from: amw on November 27, 2021, 12:09:08 PM
We have very limited data; just a handful of initial reports. It could easily turn out to be more deadly—and therefore more easily containable, like most of the variants after Delta (Lambda, Mu, etc) that were designated "variants of concern" because of a deadlier symptom profile but proved unable to spread quickly and thus never ended up displacing Delta.

Delta is arguably a worst-case scenario—a variant that's less deadly than the wild-type, but still deadly enough to kill twenty to thirty percent of hospitalised patients; three times more transmissible, such that its wider reach ended up causing many more deaths than the wild-type had; and more resistant to vaccines (specifically the T cell response). Every new variant since then has come up against diminishing returns: highly transmissible but mild enough that the immune system can eliminate it before it can reproduce and overtake Delta in genome prevalence, or deadly enough that it burns out rapidly against the combination of vaccinations and social distancing protocols and therefore isn't as transmissible as Delta. Eventually we'll likely get a variant that's, say, six times more transmissible than the wild-type (R0 of 12) while still being severe enough or sufficiently mutated to escape vaccines/the immune system, and that variant will be capable of outcompeting Delta over time, and if that variant still kills, say, ten percent of hospitalised patients it'll produce a new mass casualty wave equivalent to Delta. But hopefully by that time someone will have a workable model for predicting future SCV2 mutations and by the time the following major variant of concern emerges there will be annual covid shots tailored in advance to that season's likely mutations/avenues of immune escape, just as we have our flu shots now. This could take another two or three years, and I doubt Western countries will be the first to get there. (It would be trivially easy to tweak an mRNA vaccine into targeting a slightly different protein or whatever, but the Euro-American cash will dry up and Pfizer & Moderna will lose interest as a result. I suspect someone will leak the specifications to India or Vietnam or South Africa or Cuba or whatever, or some hotshot scientists in Bangkok will independently create their own mRNA vaccines, and they'll be the first to actually try it.)

Most interesting, thanks.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Mandryka

Quote from: amw on November 27, 2021, 12:09:08 PM
We have very limited data; just a handful of initial reports. It could easily turn out to be more deadly—and therefore more easily containable, like most of the variants after Delta (Lambda, Mu, etc) that were designated "variants of concern" because of a deadlier symptom profile but proved unable to spread quickly and thus never ended up displacing Delta.

Delta is arguably a worst-case scenario—a variant that's less deadly than the wild-type, but still deadly enough to kill twenty to thirty percent of hospitalised patients; three times more transmissible, such that its wider reach ended up causing many more deaths than the wild-type had; and more resistant to vaccines (specifically the T cell response). Every new variant since then has come up against diminishing returns: highly transmissible but mild enough that the immune system can eliminate it before it can reproduce and overtake Delta in genome prevalence, or deadly enough that it burns out rapidly against the combination of vaccinations and social distancing protocols and therefore isn't as transmissible as Delta. Eventually we'll likely get a variant that's, say, six times more transmissible than the wild-type (R0 of 12) while still being severe enough or sufficiently mutated to escape vaccines/the immune system, and that variant will be capable of outcompeting Delta over time, and if that variant still kills, say, ten percent of hospitalised patients it'll produce a new mass casualty wave equivalent to Delta. But hopefully by that time someone will have a workable model for predicting future SCV2 mutations and by the time the following major variant of concern emerges there will be annual covid shots tailored in advance to that season's likely mutations/avenues of immune escape, just as we have our flu shots now. This could take another two or three years, and I doubt Western countries will be the first to get there. (It would be trivially easy to tweak an mRNA vaccine into targeting a slightly different protein or whatever, but the Euro-American cash will dry up and Pfizer & Moderna will lose interest as a result. I suspect someone will leak the specifications to India or Vietnam or South Africa or Cuba or whatever, or some hotshot scientists in Bangkok will independently create their own mRNA vaccines, and they'll be the first to actually try it.)

It's not just delta that it will have to displace here in the UK, it's the delta plus variant, which seems to be very transmissible. I don't know how widespread it is

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59009293
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

drogulus

#5825
     Link

Quote from: Florestan on November 27, 2021, 11:41:26 AM
The only word missing from the above is mandatory. Instead there is the word recommended. I can assure you that to the best of my knowledge no Romanian kid was ever expelled from school and no Romanian parent was fined or jailed for not being, or not allowing to be, vaccinated.



     Parents are not jailed. Children are not expelled. They can return to school as soon as it is safe for them and others.

Quote from: Florestan on November 27, 2021, 11:41:26 AM

Be it as it may, let's play by your rules: please tell us what is the difference between the Romanian-made measles-containing vaccine in 1979 and the rMNA anti-Covid-19 vaccines in 2020?


     I guess you put a Bog on one and Pazuzu (personal friend of mine) on the other one.
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Que

Quote from: Que on November 27, 2021, 06:00:50 AM
New Covid variant: How worried should we be?

What I get from it is that there is a real possibility that we're in big trouble, but hopefully not...

Still true today. Transmissibility is higher, so it's likely that this variant will replace the delta variant as the dominant variant.
Mutation level is higher than all previous variants, but it is unsure what the consequences are. It is unclear if existing vaccines will still be effective. Same on the health effects: this variant could be more dangerous - or more benign. We could get lucky...

Mandryka

#5827
Interesting that Holland is recommending work from home now, Que. There are people here who think the UK should have done the same -- as far as I know Holland is the only Western country to have made that move.

Expensive! Think of all those Christmas parties at work which won't happen. The hospitality industry really are getting it in the neck.

And the rest in Holland seems really strong -- partial closures of retail and entertainments.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Que

#5828
I think working from home is a good measure: it limits contact at work and the use of public transport. But almost every Dutch household  has Internet access.

There seems to be a clear divide in society:
1. Those who think the current measures are - again - too little, too late (count me in)
2. The large majority that doesn't care anymore and want it just to be over.
3. Those who think enough is enough and are opposing any government measures.

The hesitancy in scaling up measures during this new wave are political - general covid "fatigue" - as well as financial - after generous support of businesses during the first waves, financial buffers have been depleted.

But the limits of capacity in health care have been reached, and the government's hand is forced.

Mandryka

Quote from: Que on November 28, 2021, 04:25:05 AM
, financial buffers have been depleted.


Maybe, this is something I'm not confident to discuss really. Do you know about MMT?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

drogulus

Quote from: Mandryka on November 28, 2021, 06:29:14 AM
Maybe, this is something I'm not confident to discuss really. Do you know about MMT?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory

     All MMT does is say "you know that thing you do whenever you do it, you can do it". We have a debt ceiling to kind of pretend we can't do that thing we do. If we could really run out of dollars, we just would.
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Mandryka

Yes clearly the idea of a "financial buffer", like a suitcase under the bed stuffed with cash, which has been depleted, is a bit fishy. Governments  can always just print some. But governments seem to use it to limit the populations expectations of services from the state - health services, pensons etc.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Holden

Quote from: Que on November 28, 2021, 04:25:05 AM
I think working from home is a good measure: it limits contact at work and the use of public transport. But almost every Dutch household  has Internet access.

From the data I've seen (via Govt web sites etc) the biggest area of transmissibility is in the home environment.
Cheers

Holden

Que

Quote from: Holden on November 28, 2021, 11:53:03 AM
From the data I've seen (via Govt web sites etc) the biggest area of transmissibility is in the home environment.

True, but how does it get into the home?

SimonNZ


Karl Henning

Quote from: SimonNZ on November 28, 2021, 12:18:22 PM
Wake up sheeple!!



Yes, there are people who lap that crap up ....
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

krummholz

#5836
Quote from: Mandryka on November 28, 2021, 10:26:44 AM
Yes clearly the idea of a "financial buffer", like a suitcase under the bed stuffed with cash, which has been depleted, is a bit fishy. Governments  can always just print some. But governments seem to use it to limit the populations expectations of services from the state - health services, pensons etc.

Yes, they can just print some... but what effect does that have on the economy? Others contend that putting more cash into the economy that is not backed up by real wealth just devalues the currency and leads to or worsens inflation.

There's a reason some say that MMT actually stands for "Magic Money Tree".

TANSTAAFL etc....

greg

Quote from: SimonNZ on November 28, 2021, 12:18:22 PM
Wake up sheeple!!


This looks like a parody of conspiracy theories, usually when they are mocked it's done with the whole numerical calculation joke.

I looked up this person's twitter and looks legit after a quick glance, though. Says they are INTJ. Probably explains it. (They are such calculated planners that if they were in positions of power, they would do this sort of crazy stuff, so that's why unreasonably assume everything is calculated and planned- but this is only the unrealistic/unhealthy type of INTJ, usually they are more reasonable). 
Wagie wagie get back in the cagie

Mandryka

Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Mandryka

Quote from: krummholz on November 28, 2021, 05:55:55 PM
Yes, they can just print some... but what effect does that have on the economy? Others contend that putting more cash into the economy that is not backed up by real wealth just devalues the currency and leads to or worsens inflation.


Yes, well now I'm out of my depth. But I note in passing that an argument that you often here from government in the UK "we can't do X, Y or Z because we haven't got enough money . . . " - as nonsense! The last one here was to do with social care - and motivated a tax increase to "pay for it." You only have to think a little about it to see how flawed this way of thinking is.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen