Coronavirus thread

[krummholz]

Yes, well now I'm out of my depth. But I note in passing that an argument that you often here from government in the UK "we can't do X, Y or Z because we haven't got enough money . . . " - as nonsense! The last one here was to do with social care - and motivated a tax increase to "pay for it." You only have to think a little about it to see how flawed this way of thinking is.

I'm not sure I see what is flawed about it.

If our government were to institute a national health system that would be paid for with a tax increase, that would make sense and wouldn't give me the heebie-jeebies. It's when they come up with hyper-expensive plans (like Biden's BBB bill) and then claim it will be paid for by raising taxes only on the wealthy, that I get worried. Too many times the US has spent money it did not currently have, borrowing itself into massive debt and then borrowing to begin to pay off that debt. That is what seems flawed to me. And with MMT, the fear is that they will simply print more money to keep the national debt under control. I just do not see how this can be sustained indefinitely.

[Spotted Horses]

Yes, they can just print some... but what effect does that have on the economy? Others contend that putting more cash into the economy that is not backed up by real wealth just devalues the currency and leads to or worsens inflation.

There's a reason some say that MMT actually stands for "Magic Money Tree".

TANSTAAFL etc....

Money has no intrinsic value. Classical macroeconomic theory is built on no foundation, usually it assumes that economic agents (people) behave with rational self interest. They don't. They are swayed just as much by nonsensical beliefs. It is not like physics, where there are underlying conservation rules like energy conservation, momentum conservation, mass conservation, the entropy law, which provide a profound constraint on theories.

A country is rich because its people work efficiently and produce a lot of stuff. The distribution of money determines what they work on. If it has proven anything, the last 20 years prove that you can "print money" and produce no inflation. The only time that printing money has to produce inflation is if the economy is at peak capacity and giving people more money motivates them to buy more stuff than the economy can produce. It appears we have been nowhere near that point. The inflation we are experiencing seems to be due to reduction is capacity to produce and import due to pandemic problems, which we might hope will be temporary. The worst thing that can happen is when the government doesn't print enough money and potentially productive workers are sitting at home because no one has the cash to buy what those workers could produce. With workforce participation dropping, that seems to be where we are headed.

If you want a case study of what's wrong with our economy, a couple of generations ago the most successful tech company was IBM. They had a very rich CEO, but they also had an army of salesmen in starched white shirts and blue three piece suites selling mainframes and earning commissions that put them in the upper middle class. They also had factories full of well paid manufacturing workers. Now we have Apple. It has a few company officials who possess the wealth of Croesus, but 95% of their employees are sales staff in Apple stores that made $35k a year and no commission, even though each apple store representatives sells several million dollars worth of stuff, on average. Larry Ellison of Oracle has a yacht that is bigger than a Navy destroyer. If more of Oracle's earnings went to its engineers, people would be employed building lots and lots of small pleasure boats, instead of Larry Ellison's mega-yacht.

[drogulus]

Yes, they can just print some... but what effect does that have on the economy? Others contend that putting more cash into the economy that is not backed up by real wealth just devalues the currency and leads to or worsens inflation.

There's a reason some say that MMT actually stands for "Magic Money Tree".

TANSTAAFL etc....

     If one thinks the effect on the economy is the important thing, then why keep fussing about fictional nominal limits? Why not instead focus on the effects of currency issuance on, say, the real economy? At a low issuance rate the economy will always move in a deflationary direction, which must be countered by spending the economy up in the direction of full employment/output. As I said, MMT says what we do, we can do. It would be naughty indeed if it said anything else.

     Since Covid the economy has been bolstered by a large increase of national savings to ward off the depression that would have otherwise resulted. How does fear of the Big Number factor in? Is it the fact that the savings are recorded as national debt? Will the economy collapse when we run out of zeros?

[krummholz]

     If one thinks the effect on the economy is the important thing, then why keep fussing about fictional nominal limits? Why not instead focus on the effects of currency issuance on, say, the real economy? At a low issuance rate the economy will always move in a deflationary direction, which must be countered by spending the economy up in the direction of full employment/output. As I said, MMT says what we do, we can do. It would be naughty indeed if it said anything else.

     Since Covid the economy has been bolstered by a large increase of national savings to ward off the depression that would have otherwise resulted. How does fear of the Big Number factor in? Is it the fact that the savings are recorded as national debt? Will the economy collapse when we run out of zeros?

You sound like you must be an economist and I confess I'm not. But from where I sit, that sentence of yours that I bolded looks positively Orwellian. To my understanding, what has bolstered the economy recently has been mainly the tremendous influx of cash from the Government in the form of stimulus payments and economic relief, e.g. the American Rescue Plan. I am at a loss to understand how that massive government spending can be classified as "savings".

[drogulus]

To my understanding, what has bolstered the economy recently has been mainly the tremendous influx of cash from the Government in the form of stimulus payments and economic relief, e.g. the American Rescue Plan. I am at a loss to understand how that massive government spending can be classified as "savings".

      Yes, you are at a loss. But consider that if the savings was fictional, so would be the debt on the other side. Either the savings held by the public is real or it isn't. Do you own Treasuries? Are they real? Mine are.

      Stephanie Kelton (peace and blessing be totally on her) once asked a bunch of economic sophistos if they would push a button to eliminate the national debt. To the surprise of absolutely no one, most of them (hereinafter known as "fools") said yes. She then closed the trap by asking if they would push a button to eliminate all the US Treasury securities. Of course it's the same button.

[drogulus]

     I know this is a bit off topic (heh!) but it looks like Omicron doesn't very much kill people. It's the virus version of "hyperinflation".

[prémont]

     I know this is a bit off topic (heh!) but it looks like Omicron doesn't very much kill people. It's the virus version of "hyperinflation".

This is a premature conclusion. The known number of infected persons has been small, and we don't now how the virus behaves in relation to the elderly and the vulnerable people.

[drogulus]

This is a premature conclusion. The known number of infected persons has been small, and we don't now how the virus behaves in relation to the elderly and the vulnerable people.

     OK, I predict, not conclude, it will not kill as many people per infection as previous versions. So far we know the symptom are not as severe.

Hundreds of infected people across Southern Africa reportedly complain of nausea, headaches, fatigue and a high pulse rate, but none seem to suffer from a loss of taste or smell, which has been the case with most other Covid mutations.

Moreover, more and more medics across Southern Africa are confirming that most Omicron-infected patients merely have a severe headache, nausea or dizziness.

     Link

     The Omicron market crash has largely reversed in a single trading day. The chickens have put their heads back on. Oh OK, never mind.

[Karl Henning]

     OK, I predict, not conclude, it will not kill as many people per infection as previous versions. So far we know the symptom are not as severe.

Hundreds of infected people across Southern Africa reportedly complain of nausea, headaches, fatigue and a high pulse rate, but none seem to suffer from a loss of taste or smell, which has been the case with most other Covid mutations.

Moreover, more and more medics across Southern Africa are confirming that most Omicron-infected patients merely have a severe headache, nausea or dizziness.

     Link

     The Omicron market crash has largely reversed in a single trading day. The chickens have put their heads back on. Oh OK, never mind.

That's why it's called market volatility ....

[Mandryka]

     OK, I predict, not conclude, it will not kill as many people per infection as previous versions. So far we know the symptom are not as severe.

Hundreds of infected people across Southern Africa reportedly complain of nausea, headaches, fatigue and a high pulse rate, but none seem to suffer from a loss of taste or smell, which has been the case with most other Covid mutations.

Moreover, more and more medics across Southern Africa are confirming that most Omicron-infected patients merely have a severe headache, nausea or dizziness.

     Link

     The Omicron market crash has largely reversed in a single trading day. The chickens have put their heads back on. Oh OK, never mind.

Hate the idea of a severe headache, hopefully I'm too old for it.

[amw]

     OK, I predict, not conclude, it will not kill as many people per infection as previous versions. So far we know the symptom are not as severe.

Hundreds of infected people across Southern Africa reportedly complain of nausea, headaches, fatigue and a high pulse rate, but none seem to suffer from a loss of taste or smell, which has been the case with most other Covid mutations.

Moreover, more and more medics across Southern Africa are confirming that most Omicron-infected patients merely have a severe headache, nausea or dizziness.

     Link

     The Omicron market crash has largely reversed in a single trading day. The chickens have put their heads back on. Oh OK, never mind.

Population health data takes a while to aggregate (& ideally you'd also have mouse models, etc.) so I wouldn't draw any conclusions. That said, within three weeks of the identification of wild-type SCV2 there was already evidence for a relatively high rate of death and severe illness simply based on clinical outcomes at hospitals in Wuhan, three weeks being the average time from infection to death. As such we should know more regarding the raw morbidity of Omicron-type SCV2 within the next two weeks or so. A lower morbidity would be consistent with past studies of coronavirus and influenza evolution.

[T. D.]

For another take:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-29/omicron-is-feeding-the-republican-conspiracy-beast



U.S. Representative Ronny Jackson, a Texas Republican and former White House physician, took to Twitter on Sunday to claim: "Here comes the MEV — the Midterm Election Variant! They NEED a reason to push unsolicited nationwide mail-in ballots. Democrats will do anything to CHEAT during an election — but we're not going to let them!"

[Pohjolas Daughter]

For another take:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-11-29/omicron-is-feeding-the-republican-conspiracy-beast



U.S. Representative Ronny Jackson, a Texas Republican and former White House physician, took to Twitter on Sunday to claim: "Here comes the MEV — the Midterm Election Variant! They NEED a reason to push unsolicited nationwide mail-in ballots. Democrats will do anything to CHEAT during an election — but we're not going to let them!"

My initial thoughts/words would not be printable here.   

And a former WH physician?!  Is he still licensed?  "God help us!" is my second thought.

PD

[drogulus]

Population health data takes a while to aggregate (& ideally you'd also have mouse models, etc.) so I wouldn't draw any conclusions. That said, within three weeks of the identification of wild-type SCV2 there was already evidence for a relatively high rate of death and severe illness simply based on clinical outcomes at hospitals in Wuhan, three weeks being the average time from infection to death. As such we should know more regarding the raw morbidity of Omicron-type SCV2 within the next two weeks or so. A lower morbidity would be consistent with past studies of coronavirus and influenza evolution.

     I don't think the virus will do a 180 in the next couple of weeks. Severe illness and deaths were not lagging indicators in Wuhan, they came before anything was known about the cause. In S. Africa we have mild symptoms, no hospitalizations and no deaths due to Omicron.

The WHO and Coronavirus experts are increasingly convinced the new Omicron variant is 'super mild' and has, so far, not led to a jump in Covid death rates anywhere in Southern Africa.

The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead be cautiously optimistic as more and more reports out of South Africa suggest the new Omicron variant is not more lethal than the previous Delta variant.

In fact, there have been no reports of hospitalisations or deaths as a result of anyone being diagnosed with Omicron.

     Link

[MusicTurner]

Thanks for the interesting - and quite positive, it seems - update.

[Mandryka]

     I don't think the virus will do a 180 in the next couple of weeks. Severe illness and deaths were not lagging indicators in Wuhan, they came before anything was known about the cause. In S. Africa we have mild symptoms, no hospitalizations and no deaths due to Omicron.

The WHO and Coronavirus experts are increasingly convinced the new Omicron variant is 'super mild' and has, so far, not led to a jump in Covid death rates anywhere in Southern Africa.

The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead be cautiously optimistic as more and more reports out of South Africa suggest the new Omicron variant is not more lethal than the previous Delta variant.

In fact, there have been no reports of hospitalisations or deaths as a result of anyone being diagnosed with Omicron.

     Link

Can someone find me a link to support this claim?

The WHO is calling this morning for countries to drop travel restrictions and end the mass hysteria, and instead be cautiously optimistic as more and more reports out of South Africa suggest the new Omicron variant is not more lethal than the previous Delta variant.

[MusicTurner]

Can someone find me a link to support this claim?

It's all in the provided link there, though the WHO source requesting 'optimism' isn't given; the other quotes have sources.

[Mandryka]

It's all in the provided link there, though the WHO source requesting 'optimism' isn't given; the other quotes have sources.

The WHO one seems to me the one most in need of support. I would be very surprised if it were true.

[MusicTurner]

If WHO has indeed also called for 'optimism', based on some facts, it will certainly be of interest too, but I agree that there's no concrete evidence for a WHO statement like that.

[Mandryka]

If it's a lie then it's a serious thing, and that journal is a shameful rag which should be ignored from now on. If it were my site I would ban all references to it, for fear of promulgating misinformation.