Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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MusicTurner

Quote from: Mandryka on November 30, 2021, 08:49:00 AM
If it's a lie then it's a serious thing, and that journal is a shameful rag which should be ignored from now on. If it were my site I would ban all references to it, for fear of promulgating misinformation.

I'd take it a bit more easy in this case. Detailed sources are given for the other news there, and it's fairly easy to identify the single miss as regards the basis for using the exact word 'optimism'.

drogulus

Quote from: Mandryka on November 30, 2021, 08:49:00 AM
If it's a lie then it's a serious thing, and that journal is a shameful rag which should be ignored from now on. If it were my site I would ban all references to it, for fear of promulgating misinformation.

     The source of information on the severity of Omicron is S. African GPs who have reported up the chain to health officials there. The WHO gets what it knows from them.

     Here's how I look at it. There hasn't yet been a single claim of a hospitalization or death from an Omicron infection. One would expect these cases to begin to show up before the cause was known, and the true cause subsequently identified. Instead we have the discovery of Omicron and only mild cases attributed to it. Supposedly it's spreading among the young and that might explain the mildness of symptoms. I do not buy this. That would explain few severe cases, but doesn't explain none at all.
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Mandryka

Quote from: drogulus on November 30, 2021, 09:13:35 AM
     The source of information on the severity of Omicron is S. African GPs who have reported up the chain to health officials there. The WHO gets what it knows from them.

     Here's how I look at it. There hasn't yet been a single claim of a hospitalization or death from an Omicron infection. One would expect these cases to begin to show up before the cause was known, and the true cause subsequently identified. Instead we have the discovery of Omicron and only mild cases attributed to it. Supposedly it's spreading among the young and that might explain the mildness of symptoms. I do not buy this. That would explain few severe cases, but doesn't explain none at all.

I can see where you're coming from, but it is very early days with this. It looks to me as though the WHO citation was just a big fat lie. Even if it turns out to be true that the variant is less likely to cause serious illness and death, countries may still want to impose more restrictions than before because it's more infectious -- you'd have to model how many hospitalisations there are expected to be, and the available hospital resources. Don't forget in the North we're about to enter flu season.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

amw

Quote from: drogulus on November 30, 2021, 07:37:19 AM
     I don't think the virus will do a 180 in the next couple of weeks.
Me neither. I prefer to be cautious and not draw any conclusions, but I don't see any evidence that the increasing restrictions and travel bans in response to the variant are justified.

Quote
Severe illness and deaths were not lagging indicators in Wuhan, they came before anything was known about the cause.
Well, yes, but once the cause was identified as a novel coronavirus and the first assays were designed, three weeks was the average time from positive PCR test to death or recovery. In this case, the new variant was sequenced and assays designed about a week ago, perhaps a bit longer. Therefore it might be another two weeks before we have % recovered/% died numbers. (The average for all existing variants of the virus has been 98/2; closer to 96/4 before the emergence of the Delta variant.)

Quote
In S. Africa we have mild symptoms, no hospitalizations and no deaths due to Omicron.
There are related hospitalisations in other countries; however, all that I know of are precautionary and intended to facilitate observation and information gathering about the new variant, with most hospitalised patients having mild to no symptoms.

The most concerning symptoms with this variant are cardiac, with some of Coetzee's patients presenting with elevated or irregular heart rates. Given the risks of myocarditis/pericarditis/other inflammatory heart failures associated with SCV2 antibodies, any new variant needs to be monitored for increased risk. All we have at the moment are anecdotal data (we'd need someone to systematically check ECGs of Omicron patients vs. a control population) but those individual reports are one main reason not to be too optimistic about the current situation.

Florestan

#5864
I have a first cousin, her husband, daughter and son-in-law (a Greek-origin stomatologist) living in Johannesburg,  South Africa. They are all doubly vaccinated. My cousin's granddaughter was tested Covid positive two days ago and she stays at home with mild symptoms, after coming home  from a Madrid vacation. They told me today just today that we shouldn't believe one iota of what apocalyptical  news we hear --- South Africa proper is on Level 1 Alert (meaning masks and social distancing only);l she and her husband are going tomorrow on a 10-day vacation in Cape Town without any  problem at all; according to official SA news, not a single one of the omicron cases are in hospital, let alone ICU units.











Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

Karl Henning

Quote from: amw on November 30, 2021, 09:58:00 AM
Me neither. I prefer to be cautious and not draw any conclusions, but I don't see any evidence that the increasing restrictions and travel bans in response to the variant are justified.
Well, yes, but once the cause was identified as a novel coronavirus and the first assays were designed, three weeks was the average time from positive PCR test to death or recovery. In this case, the new variant was sequenced and assays designed about a week ago, perhaps a bit longer. Therefore it might be another two weeks before we have % recovered/% died numbers. (The average for all existing variants of the virus has been 98/2; closer to 96/4 before the emergence of the Delta variant.)
There are related hospitalisations in other countries; however, all that I know of are precautionary and intended to facilitate observation and information gathering about the new variant, with most hospitalised patients having mild to no symptoms.

The most concerning symptoms with this variant are cardiac, with some of Coetzee's patients presenting with elevated or irregular heart rates. Given the risks of myocarditis/pericarditis/other inflammatory heart failures associated with SCV2 antibodies, any new variant needs to be monitored for increased risk. All we have at the moment are anecdotal data (we'd need someone to systematically check ECGs of Omicron patients vs. a control population) but those individual reports are one main reason not to be too optimistic about the current situation.

Neither panic, nor irrational optimism. I'm in.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Florestan

Quote from: Mandryka on November 30, 2021, 09:34:40 AM
It looks to me as though the WHO citation was just a big fat lie.

Do you -- or any other rational, fact-checking human being --- still believe what the WHO says?

Every kind of music is good, except the boring kind. — Rossini

drogulus

Quote from: amw on November 30, 2021, 09:58:00 AM
Me neither. I prefer to be cautious and not draw any conclusions, but I don't see any evidence that the increasing restrictions and travel bans in response to the variant are justified.
Well, yes, but once the cause was identified as a novel coronavirus and the first assays were designed, three weeks was the average time from positive PCR test to death or recovery. In this case, the new variant was sequenced and assays designed about a week ago, perhaps a bit longer. Therefore it might be another two weeks before we have % recovered/% died numbers. (The average for all existing variants of the virus has been 98/2; closer to 96/4 before the emergence of the Delta variant.)
There are related hospitalisations in other countries; however, all that I know of are precautionary and intended to facilitate observation and information gathering about the new variant, with most hospitalised patients having mild to no symptoms.

The most concerning symptoms with this variant are cardiac, with some of Coetzee's patients presenting with elevated or irregular heart rates. Given the risks of myocarditis/pericarditis/other inflammatory heart failures associated with SCV2 antibodies, any new variant needs to be monitored for increased risk. All we have at the moment are anecdotal data (we'd need someone to systematically check ECGs of Omicron patients vs. a control population) but those individual reports are one main reason not to be too optimistic about the current situation.

     Your caution is justified IMV. I'm on the Moderna bus times 3, and they are expressing some concern that their vaccine may be less effective against the new strain. Like a savvy Fed chairman I will monitor events closely while I do nothing.

     What I think will happen is that it won't be long before Covid vaccination will be about as frequent as that for influenza, and we'll have several thousand deaths and many more severe illnesses on a permanent basis. Omicron is pretty much the kind of development one might expect to happen from viral evolution.

Quote from: Florestan on November 30, 2021, 11:24:23 AM
Do you -- or any other rational, fact-checking human being --- still believe what the WHO says?



     I'm not beliefy about stuff. I can parse what institutions say without falling into the abyss of credulity or naivety. If you can't do that you're gonna need a bigger whateveritis.

     On Earth we follow the news and take notes.
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Karl Henning

Quote from: drogulus on November 30, 2021, 11:31:04 AM
     I'm not beliefy about stuff. I can parse what institutions say without falling into the abyss of credulity or naivety. If you can't do that you're gonna need a bigger whateveritis.

     On Earth we follow the news and take notes.

How utterly rational, Ernie.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Karl Henning

Meanwhile, for the emotional vaccine-deniers:

Vermont reports record COVID-19 hospitalizations — 3:37 p.m.

By The Associated Press

Vermont on Tuesday reported its highest number of hospitalizations from COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic.

A total of 84 people were hospitalized, with 22 in intensive care, according to the Vermont Department of Health.

Unvaccinated people made up 71% of the hospitalizations and 81% of critical care stays over the last seven days, according to state data. During his weekly virus briefing Tuesday, Governor Phil Scott urged Vermonters to get vaccinated and get their boosters.
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Holden

#5870
If what the WHO is saying has a basis in fact then it's not surprising. Viruses mutate to try and ensure their highest rate of survival. Killing their host is the last thing it wants to have happen as it slows down transmission. Ebola is a classic case of a virus that died out because it killed the  majority of it's hosts before they had a chance to pass it on.

There is strong evidence that the H1N1 flu virus (the Spanish Flu) did something similar about a century ago. After initially killing a great number of people it mutated to a state where only those with compromised health were likely to die if they caught it (and H1N1 is still with us today). The major mutation process took about three years (1918 - 21) and even though there was no vaccine until the 1930s the mortality rate plummeted.

So whether the WHO is blatantly lying or not, based on historical evidence of other pandemics, I believe there is cause for optimism and that's been echoed by many in the medical world.
Cheers

Holden

Mandryka

#5871
Quote from: Florestan on November 30, 2021, 11:24:23 AM
Do you -- or any other rational, fact-checking human being --- still believe what the WHO says?
]

I don't think WHO is lying. I think that the paper is lying!
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Mandryka

Quote from: Florestan on November 30, 2021, 11:18:22 AM
according to official SA news, not a single one of the omicron cases are in hospital

Are you sure?
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

MusicTurner

#5873
Quote from: Mandryka on November 30, 2021, 01:11:02 PM
Are you sure?

There are now conflicting news coming from South Africa, including hospitalizations. Apparently, the identifying of the Omicron cases isn't yet in place, and it's still early.

- positive: https://apnews.com/fe004c1e59fa5cd73fbc41a9efe86f99
- negative & critique of the above: https://www.news.com.au/world/africa/south-african-epicentre-of-the-omicron-variant-shows-increase-in-hospitalisations/news-story/f792bc26fb95d0a7f3a0d0d421ea11e6

As laymen, I think we'll just have to wait and see for the oncoming tendencies, and the general press to then collect the facts, probably within a couple of weeks the picture will be clearer.

Mandryka

Quote from: amw on November 30, 2021, 09:58:00 AM

The most concerning symptoms with this variant are cardiac, with some of Coetzee's patients presenting with elevated or irregular heart rates. Given the risks of myocarditis/pericarditis/other inflammatory heart failures associated with SCV2 antibodies, any new variant needs to be monitored for increased risk. All we have at the moment are anecdotal data (we'd need someone to systematically check ECGs of Omicron patients vs. a control population) but those individual reports are one main reason not to be too optimistic about the current situation.

This is an interesting line of thought, I've tried to find out whether it is indeed a serious preoccupation of the medics involved but so far I've come up with nothing. As far as I can see there are very few cases with heart events (one maybe.)
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Mandryka

#5875
Quote from: amw on November 30, 2021, 09:58:00 AM
Me neither. I prefer to be cautious and not draw any conclusions, but I don't see any evidence that the increasing restrictions and travel bans in response to the variant are justified.

This was my reaction first of all, but I'm now not sure it's correct. If it turns out to be a serious problem governments will have to be ready to put things into place to manage it - test and trace systems, for example, and services for the very vulnerable. These things have probably been put into a sleep mode over summer - so buying a bit of time before it kicks off big time, even if it's just a week or two, is maybe not a bad idea.

And I'd add, time to increase the vaccine acquired immunity of the population a little.
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

Mandryka

Quote from: MusicTurner on November 30, 2021, 11:04:20 PM
There are now conflicting news coming from South Africa, including hospitalizations. Apparently, the identifying of the Omicron cases isn't yet in place, and it's still early.

- positive: https://apnews.com/fe004c1e59fa5cd73fbc41a9efe86f99
- negative & critique of the above: https://www.news.com.au/world/africa/south-african-epicentre-of-the-omicron-variant-shows-increase-in-hospitalisations/news-story/f792bc26fb95d0a7f3a0d0d421ea11e6

As laymen, I think we'll just have to wait and see for the oncoming tendencies, and the general press to then collect the facts, probably within a couple of weeks the picture will be clearer.

Are Tshwane and Gauteng different areas?
Wovon man nicht sprechen kann, darüber muss man schweigen

MusicTurner

Quote from: Mandryka on December 01, 2021, 01:51:13 AM
Are Tshwane and Gauteng different areas?

I don't know, but it would be easy to find out ...

ritter

Tshwaneemunicipality is in Gauteng province..

krummholz

Quote from: drogulus on November 29, 2021, 08:55:49 AM
      Yes, you are at a loss. But consider that if the savings was fictional, so would be the debt on the other side. Either the savings held by the public is real or it isn't. Do you own Treasuries? Are they real? Mine are.

No, that makes sense. But you didn't qualify your statement by saying "savings held in the form of securities held by the public", so it appeared you were talking about savings by the USG. And to answer your question, yes, I hold such securities (T-Bills), and am very well aware that they represent a piece of the national debt. That doesn't make the debt any less real, or less potentially dangerous to the economy if managed by simply printing money.

Thanks for the clarification.