Coronavirus thread

Started by JBS, March 12, 2020, 07:03:50 PM

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prémont

Quote from: Madiel on February 17, 2022, 12:22:52 PM

Nearly zero. I'm not talking about people who believe they can "boost" their immune system with vitamins or zinc or something that's actually dangerous rather than pointless. People who actually know enough about their own individual immune system, one of the most complex things in the human body, to make an informed choice as to where they sit on the statistical probabilities? That's almost nobody. That's ONLY people who have previous experience of an unusual issue that gave them specific information.

The problem is, in some parts of the world there are far too many people who BELIEVE they know way more about their own immune system in ways that would make a scientist double over with laughter if it wasn't goddamn serious. A steady diet of wellness industry junk science designed to sell you stuff has people believing they have total control over bodily functions they haven't a clue about.

Making the "correct decision" isn't based on wisdom. It's dumb luck. It's the same dumb luck that means most people who decide not to wear a seatbelt on a car trip won't die. It doesn't mean not getting vaccinated was a wise decision, it just means people played a round of Russian roulette and didn't lose. But they will BELIEVE they made a smart informed decision because the result was okay, in a shocking case of post hoc ergo propter hoc thinking.

Not getting vaccinated is not a wise, informed choice unless you have specific knowledge of a medical condition that makes vaccination a bad idea. Tell your Mum.

Excellent post.
Reality trumps our fantasy far beyond imagination.

greg

Quote from: Madiel on February 17, 2022, 12:22:52 PM
That "hopefully" in brackets is a huge issue. Your position makes theoretical sense, but doesn't work because it presupposes a kind of knowledge that people do NOT have. How many people ACTUALLY know enough about their immune system to make an informed choice?

Nearly zero. I'm not talking about people who believe they can "boost" their immune system with vitamins or zinc or something that's actually dangerous rather than pointless. People who actually know enough about their own individual immune system, one of the most complex things in the human body, to make an informed choice as to where they sit on the statistical probabilities? That's almost nobody. That's ONLY people who have previous experience of an unusual issue that gave them specific information.

The problem is, in some parts of the world there are far too many people who BELIEVE they know way more about their own immune system in ways that would make a scientist double over with laughter if it wasn't goddamn serious. A steady diet of wellness industry junk science designed to sell you stuff has people believing they have total control over bodily functions they haven't a clue about.

Making the "correct decision" isn't based on wisdom. It's dumb luck. It's the same dumb luck that means most people who decide not to wear a seatbelt on a car trip won't die. It doesn't mean not getting vaccinated was a wise decision, it just means people played a round of Russian roulette and didn't lose. But they will BELIEVE they made a smart informed decision because the result was okay, in a shocking case of post hoc ergo propter hoc thinking.

Not getting vaccinated is not a wise, informed choice unless you have specific knowledge of a medical condition that makes vaccination a bad idea. Tell your Mum.
I think you are talking about something slightly different....
no mention of long-term effects we have yet to see- if you had mentioned that alongside your point that there is so much about the body that we don't know, that just points to the validity in the choice of not taking it, to eliminate risks involved in that.

And people can make educated guesses for the short-term by going to a doctor for advice, you didn't mention that either.

What is your point? You are saying this because you support mandates? Mandates would override doctor suggestions, and one's autonomy to roll the dice on their own life. Which brings me to the third thing you missed, people can choose to avoid people for years. People can be safe and never get it for years (just like me). Mandates completely disregard that, it's very disrespectful when people can be responsible, causing no harm to themselves or anyone, and then still be forced to get the shot. The risk of long-term effects from the shot if you don't get it: 0%. The risk if you do: unlikely, but above 0%.

btw if you support mandates, every bad decision doesn't need to be illegal, you aren't everyone's parent lol.

and no, won't tell my Mom because she has certain unusual health issues which, who knows how the shot would interact with that- so avoiding people until the virus was mild was a completely successful strategy, end of story. And the government, or you, or whoever, or me (if I were in power) don't have the right to forcefully make her decisions for her, same as for anyone else.
Wagie wagie get back in the cagie

Madiel

#7022
What I'm saying has nothing to do with mandates. Canberra is reportedly one of the most vaccinated places in the world. No mandates involved. We don't need one here because culturally people in Canberra understand why vaccination is recommended and don't believe in creating doubts and conspiracies for the sake of it.

Meanwhile, you try to claim that we don't know enough about vaccination after 250 years and it's not worth the risk? Spare me. We understand how vaccination works. We understand how to test vaccines before they're available to the general public.

Well I understand enough about those things anyway. Not so sure about you.

As for advice from doctors, the medical profession as a whole says again and again, people should be vaccinated. What's the best defence we have against this virus? Vaccination. Over and over. With the exception of the occasional person who has a SPECIFIC reason, most people should get vaccinated. That's what I'm saying. A general fear of the unknown is not a specific reason.

Heading into the mindset of wanting every answer to every question is not a reason, because you don't generally go through life that way. I understand enough about the science to get the basic principles, and then the rest is listening to expertise because I don't have the time or the resources to develop my own personal treatment. And neither does any individual.

The mandates I'm aware of include exceptions for the very small percentage of people who are genuinely unable to get vaccinated and who have concrete advice from a doctor to that effect. But we aren't talking about that. We're talking about all the people who won't get vaccinated because of their incoherent fears.

And it's BECAUSE of people like that that mandates even exist. You're fixated on mandates. I'm not. In places where vaccines are readily available, if people are stupid enough to not make use of them, all I want is for those people to stay the hell away from me. But in a city wher over 98% of people over the age of 12 are vaccinated, it's a non-issue.
Every single post on the forum is unnecessary. Including the ones that are interesting or useful.

Florestan

Since last Tuesday until today past noon I had the following symptoms: sore throat, cough, fever about 38 (subsiding with treatnent), extremely running nose, extremely watery eyes. Iow, the very classical symptoms of the very classical flu. I tested negative twice on a quick saliva test. Nevertheless, I can't rule out omicron. The only reason I did not get an official PCR test (which, if positive, would have automatically entitled me to get the Covid Pass) was that exactly on last Wednesday my father-in-law passed away and we had to organize, and attend, his funerals which took place today --- so I really could not afford a quarantine.

I have been wearing (double) masks all throughout this time frame.

Right now I am much better on all counts.





"Ja, sehr komisch, hahaha,
ist die Sache, hahaha,
drum verzeihn Sie, hahaha,
wenn ich lache, hahaha! "

Florestan

Quote from: Madiel on February 17, 2022, 12:22:52 PM
How many people ACTUALLY know enough about their immune system to make an informed choice?

Nearly zero.

True.

Now, how many experts ACTUALLY know enough about the immune system of a particular person to make an informed recommendation?

Nearly zero.



"Ja, sehr komisch, hahaha,
ist die Sache, hahaha,
drum verzeihn Sie, hahaha,
wenn ich lache, hahaha! "

Karl Henning

Quote from: Florestan on February 19, 2022, 07:44:32 AM
Since last Tuesday until today past noon I had the following symptoms: sore throat, cough, fever about 38 (subsiding with treatnent), extremely running nose, extremely watery eyes. Iow, the very classical symptoms of the very classical flu. I tested negative twice on a quick saliva test. Nevertheless, I can't rule out omicron. The only reason I did not get an official PCR test (which, if positive, would have automatically entitled me to get the Covid Pass) was that exactly on last Wednesday my father-in-law passed away and we had to organize, and attend, his funerals which took place today --- so I really could not afford a quarantine.

I have been wearing (double) masks all throughout this time frame.

Right now I am much better on all counts.







Mend quickly!
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot

Florestan

Quote from: k a rl h e nn i ng on February 19, 2022, 08:39:25 AM
Mend quickly!

Thanks, Karl. I'm three-quarter mended already.

I tend to think it was not omicron because it lasted longer and had more symptoms than my cousin's officially confirmed Covid-19. In all probability it was just plain, good ol' flu.  :)
"Ja, sehr komisch, hahaha,
ist die Sache, hahaha,
drum verzeihn Sie, hahaha,
wenn ich lache, hahaha! "

ritter

#7027
Quote from: Florestan on February 19, 2022, 07:44:32 AM
Since last Tuesday until today past noon I had the following symptoms: sore throat, cough, fever about 38 (subsiding with treatnent), extremely running nose, extremely watery eyes. Iow, the very classical symptoms of the very classical flu. I tested negative twice on a quick saliva test. Nevertheless, I can't rule out omicron. The only reason I did not get an official PCR test (which, if positive, would have automatically entitled me to get the Covid Pass) was that exactly on last Wednesday my father-in-law passed away and we had to organize, and attend, his funerals which took place today --- so I really could not afford a quarantine.

I have been wearing (double) masks all throughout this time frame.

Right now I am much better on all counts.
Glad you're feeling better, Andrei. And receive my condolences for your  father-in-law.

Un fuerte abrazo,

Rafael


Florestan

Quote from: ritter on February 19, 2022, 09:17:07 AM
Glad you're feeling better, Andrei. And receive my condolences for father-in-law.

Un fuerte abrazo,

Rafael

Thank you, don Rafael, much appreciated.
"Ja, sehr komisch, hahaha,
ist die Sache, hahaha,
drum verzeihn Sie, hahaha,
wenn ich lache, hahaha! "

krummholz

Quote from: Madiel on February 17, 2022, 12:22:52 PM
That "hopefully" in brackets is a huge issue. Your position makes theoretical sense, but doesn't work because it presupposes a kind of knowledge that people do NOT have. How many people ACTUALLY know enough about their immune system to make an informed choice?

Nearly zero. I'm not talking about people who believe they can "boost" their immune system with vitamins or zinc or something that's actually dangerous rather than pointless. People who actually know enough about their own individual immune system, one of the most complex things in the human body, to make an informed choice as to where they sit on the statistical probabilities? That's almost nobody. That's ONLY people who have previous experience of an unusual issue that gave them specific information.

The problem is, in some parts of the world there are far too many people who BELIEVE they know way more about their own immune system in ways that would make a scientist double over with laughter if it wasn't goddamn serious. A steady diet of wellness industry junk science designed to sell you stuff has people believing they have total control over bodily functions they haven't a clue about.

Making the "correct decision" isn't based on wisdom. It's dumb luck. It's the same dumb luck that means most people who decide not to wear a seatbelt on a car trip won't die. It doesn't mean not getting vaccinated was a wise decision, it just means people played a round of Russian roulette and didn't lose. But they will BELIEVE they made a smart informed decision because the result was okay, in a shocking case of post hoc ergo propter hoc thinking.

Not getting vaccinated is not a wise, informed choice unless you have specific knowledge of a medical condition that makes vaccination a bad idea. Tell your Mum.

Hear, hear!

My retired nurse friend who lives in northern Michigan continues to send me Jimmy Dore videos that extol the dangers of vaccines, and other videos purporting to reveal "interesting" facts such as that the vaccinated outnumber the unvaccinated among hospitalized cases in Australia - I'm not sure this is true, but if the vaccination rate is as high as has been quoted (94.2%) then there would be nothing surprising about it since beyond a certain point, the sheer size of the vaccinated population is going to outweigh the greater vulnerability of being immunologically naive to SARS-CoV-2 (e.g., if the vaccination rate were 100%, then 100% of hospitalizations would be of vaccinated people).

Many people who refuse vaccination believe they are making an informed choice... but unfortunately much of the "information" they are relying on is flawed or outright false.

Madiel

Quote from: Florestan on February 19, 2022, 08:17:05 AM
True.

Now, how many experts ACTUALLY know enough about the immune system of a particular person to make an informed recommendation?

Nearly zero.

Also true. Which is why that isn't the basis of recommendations to the population.

My condolences for your loss.
Every single post on the forum is unnecessary. Including the ones that are interesting or useful.

T. D.

Quote from: krummholz on February 19, 2022, 11:07:38 AM
Hear, hear!

My retired nurse friend who lives in northern Michigan continues to send me Jimmy Dore videos that extol the dangers of vaccines, and other videos purporting to reveal "interesting" facts such as that the vaccinated outnumber the unvaccinated among hospitalized cases in Australia - I'm not sure this is true, but if the vaccination rate is as high as has been quoted (94.2%) then there would be nothing surprising about it since beyond a certain point, the sheer size of the vaccinated population is going to outweigh the greater vulnerability of being immunologically naive to SARS-CoV-2 (e.g., if the vaccination rate were 100%, then 100% of hospitalizations would be of vaccinated people).

Many people who refuse vaccination believe they are making an informed choice... but unfortunately much of the "information" they are relying on is flawed or outright false.

Excellent point. An example of how dopey/innumerate much of the population is.

For instance, if 94% of the population is vaccinated and the number of hospitalizations of vaccinated and unvaccinated are equal (I'd like to see proof of that assertion), then the unvaccinated are (94/6) = 15.7 times more likely to be hospitalized than the vaccinated.

Seemingly anyone with a high school education should be able to perform such calculations. But I suppose watching Fox News or Youtube is more appealing to morons than algebra or independent thought.  :P

Florestan

"Ja, sehr komisch, hahaha,
ist die Sache, hahaha,
drum verzeihn Sie, hahaha,
wenn ich lache, hahaha! "

Madiel

Quote from: krummholz on February 19, 2022, 11:07:38 AM
Hear, hear!

My retired nurse friend who lives in northern Michigan continues to send me Jimmy Dore videos that extol the dangers of vaccines, and other videos purporting to reveal "interesting" facts such as that the vaccinated outnumber the unvaccinated among hospitalized cases in Australia - I'm not sure this is true, but if the vaccination rate is as high as has been quoted (94.2%) then there would be nothing surprising about it since beyond a certain point, the sheer size of the vaccinated population is going to outweigh the greater vulnerability of being immunologically naive to SARS-CoV-2 (e.g., if the vaccination rate were 100%, then 100% of hospitalizations would be of vaccinated people).

Many people who refuse vaccination believe they are making an informed choice... but unfortunately much of the "information" they are relying on is flawed or outright false.

Ah yes, that thing about the hospitalisation rates is an absolutely classic case of drawing the wrong conclusion because people don't understand the maths.

It's a mistake that happens so often in the media on so many things, though. You get a statistic about a population without any information about whether it's over or under what you'd expect. Being told that 16% of tennis players are left handed is meaningless unless you know whether the number of left handed people generally is under or over 16%. And if vaccinated people are 75% of admissions but 94.2% of the population (and yes we get told high figures), then the vaccine is keeping people out of hospital.
Every single post on the forum is unnecessary. Including the ones that are interesting or useful.

SimonNZ

#7034
I'm reminded of this:


krummholz

Quote from: Florestan on February 19, 2022, 07:44:32 AM
Since last Tuesday until today past noon I had the following symptoms: sore throat, cough, fever about 38 (subsiding with treatnent), extremely running nose, extremely watery eyes. Iow, the very classical symptoms of the very classical flu. I tested negative twice on a quick saliva test. Nevertheless, I can't rule out omicron. The only reason I did not get an official PCR test (which, if positive, would have automatically entitled me to get the Covid Pass) was that exactly on last Wednesday my father-in-law passed away and we had to organize, and attend, his funerals which took place today --- so I really could not afford a quarantine.

I have been wearing (double) masks all throughout this time frame.

Right now I am much better on all counts.

Very sorry for your loss... and I hope you recover quickly from whatever has you ailing.

krummholz

Quote from: T. D. on February 19, 2022, 11:36:36 AM
Excellent point. An example of how dopey/innumerate much of the population is.

For instance, if 94% of the population is vaccinated and the number of hospitalizations of vaccinated and unvaccinated are equal (I'd like to see proof of that assertion), then the unvaccinated are (94/6) = 15.7 times more likely to be hospitalized than the vaccinated.

Seemingly anyone with a high school education should be able to perform such calculations. But I suppose watching Fox News or Youtube is more appealing to morons than algebra or independent thought.  :P

Yes, there are many people who fit that description, but I would not have expected this person to be in that camp. This is a woman who, in her mid-50s, went back to school, finished college with honors, and took up nursing. She had MANY courses in STEM fields as well as mathematics. The best guess I can make is that it was all abstract to her... perhaps she can do the maths but does not apply that skill to real world problems and data. Politically, she is not of the Fox News persuasion - but she has a strong Bernie Sanders-like anti-corporate streak, and it is her distrust of Pfizer and other Big Pharma companies that makes her vulnerable to vaccine misinformation.

And she is not wrong that there is a Long Covid-like syndrome that afflicts some people after vaccination (comedian Jimmy Dore is apparently one person suffering from this), but the online communities of people looking for answers for their symptoms are rife with stories about dismissive physicians and conspiracy theories about coverups of adverse reactions in the Pfizer trials that might even contain a kernel of truth - I have not researched this deeply enough to say with confidence that they do not. Once again though, innumeracy (or a refusal to think of risk in terms of probabilities) rears its ugly head: because even if there are thousands of such people in the world, the denominator is hundreds of millions of people (perhaps it is now in the billions?) in all who have been vaccinated. That means that the relative risk of being harmed by the vaccine vs. being left debilitated by the virus is still a matter of two or more orders of magnitude.

Source: a recent article in AAAS Science Magazine that's freely available:

https://www.science.org/content/article/rare-cases-coronavirus-vaccines-may-cause-long-covid-symptoms

Holden

#7037
Quote from: Madiel on February 18, 2022, 04:20:21 PM


And it's BECAUSE of people like that that mandates even exist. ........ if people are stupid enough to not make use of them, all I want is for those people to stay the hell away from me. But in a city where over 98% of people over the age of 12 are vaccinated, it's a non-issue.

This is where I respectfully disagree. Last week I saw a media photo of the outside of a bottle shop in Western Australia where the newspaper proudly proclaimed that the unvaccinated were now allowed to enter to purchase alcohol if they wanted. The immediate thought that came to mind was that this had very little to do with public safety and instead, the vengeful WA govt had been "punishing" the unvaxxed for being disobedient enough to not follow their wishes. Why single out liquor stores? Is there a link between drinking and an anti vax attitude?

I don't give a damn if someone who is unvaccinated is standing next to me. Firstly, I wouldn't know if they were jabbed or not (and neither would any of you) and asking them if they are is an invasion of their privacy, along with other things. (Of course, the govt could mandate that all unvaxxed people must wear a pass on a lanyard around their neck so we could identify them and steer clear of them).

Second, and most important, being triple vaxxed I'm not the one most at risk - they are (your quote seems to concur with this fact) and the statistics are there to prove it. If they choose to go down that path, I don't care. If they are lucky (and most of them will be - stats once again) the consequences will be minimal at most. The odd one or two will get really sick but hey - it's their choice!
Cheers

Holden

Holden

Quote from: T. D. on February 19, 2022, 11:36:36 AM
Excellent point. An example of how dopey/innumerate much of the population is.

For instance, if 94% of the population is vaccinated and the number of hospitalizations of vaccinated and unvaccinated are equal (I'd like to see proof of that assertion), then the unvaccinated are (94/6) = 15.7 times more likely to be hospitalized than the vaccinated.



The published statistics, which are easy to access, back up this up and while your figures are not necessarily 100% accurate, you are right in stating that it's the unvaxxed that make up the majority of hospital admissions - FOR COVID!. What is not taken into account is that people admitted to hospital here in Australia for reasons other than Covid, are lumped in with those who are if they test positive after admission. The ABS admitted this earlier this week.
Cheers

Holden

Madiel

Quote from: Holden on February 19, 2022, 04:35:10 PM
This is where I respectfully disagree. Last week I saw a media photo of the outside of a bottle shop in Western Australia where the newspaper proudly proclaimed that the unvaccinated were now allowed to enter to purchase alcohol if they wanted. The immediate thought that came to mind was that this had very little to do with public safety and instead, the vengeful WA govt had been "punishing" the unvaxxed for being disobedient enough to not follow their wishes. Why single out liquor stores? Is there a link between drinking and an anti vax attitude?

I don't give a damn if someone who is unvaccinated is standing next to me. Firstly, I wouldn't know if they were jabbed or not (and neither would any of you) and asking them if they are is an invasion of their privacy, along with other things. (Of course, the govt could mandate that all unvaxxed people must wear a pass on a lanyard around their neck so we could identify them and steer clear of them).

Second, and most important, being triple vaxxed I'm not the one most at risk - they are (your quote seems to concur with this fact) and the statistics are there to prove it. If they choose to go down that path, I don't care. If they are lucky (and most of them will be - stats once again) the consequences will be minimal at most. The odd one or two will get really sick but hey - it's their choice!

Bottle shops might not have been the only confined space where there was a restriction in WA. Confined space being the point.

Someone being unvaccinated does increase my risk, even if I'm vaccinated, especially with the omicron variant where the effectiveness of the vaccine is reduced for preventing infection. The data shows that an unvaccinated person who is infected will shed more virus than a vaccinated person who is infected. If they shed more virus, that increases the chance of me being infected, in spite of my vaccine.

And this is one of the things that people don't understand. For many diseases, vaccination is not simply an individual choice because few vaccines are anywhere near 100% effective. The goal is to put barriers up to the disease at a population level, make spread more difficult, reduce the R number to below 1.0 and snuff the outbreak out.

Why people don't understand it, I don't know. We don't seem very good at explaining and/or comprehending risk reduction and treat protection as a blunt yes/no question.

It's a bit like dealing with a fire by putting flame retardant on a favourite tree and then concluding that it doesn't matter whether the other trees around it are protected or not. Of course it matters. It's flame retardant, not flame extinguisher, and it's effective when you make as many trees as possible harder to burn.
Every single post on the forum is unnecessary. Including the ones that are interesting or useful.