USA Politics (redux)

Started by bhodges, November 10, 2020, 01:09:34 PM

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Fëanor

Quote from: Todd on December 01, 2020, 05:51:15 AM
Quote from: Fëanor on December 01, 2020, 03:36:43 AM
...
One thing is for damned sure and that is that the USA benefits from the international system.  Consider that Americans' indulgences resulting in a huge US deficit in goods & services which is financed by foreigners buying USD-denominated securities.  Hell yeah, the international system is propping up the USA.  If the small and weak start to look elsewhere that the USA, the US trade deficit problem will solve itself PDQ.
...

The US does benefit.  The existing framework has outlived its usefulness, and an alternative is needed, and has been for a long time.  Your statement about the US trade deficit does not comport with either statistical evidence or any extant international trade theory.


Au contraire, the USA's huge trade deficit is very clear ...



It is simply an economic fact that a nation's capital surplus/deficit must precisely offset it's trade & services deficit/surplus.

The USA is an historical anomaly.  In the 19th century  for instance the UK was the "largest and strongest" nation in the world but it generally ran trade surpluses and was an net exporter of capital, (much of which when to the USA to finance railroads, etc.).  Can the USA continued in its privileged situation indefinitely?  It will for while but not forever

drogulus

Quote from: Fëanor on December 01, 2020, 03:36:43 AM

One thing is for damned sure and that is that the USA benefits from the international system.  Consider that Americans' indulgences resulting in a huge US deficit in goods & services which is financed by foreigners buying USD-denominated securities.  Hell yeah, the international system is propping up the USA.  If the small and weak start to look elsewhere that the USA, the US trade deficit problem will solve itself PDQ.


     The US buys goods from our trading partners, and they bank with us. China and other partners shift their savings from a reserve account at the Fed to a securities account. All we owe to China is the interest we offer them of our own volition. They have what we supposedly owe them, an interest bearing account at the Federal Reserve.

     The US employs a huge number of workers around the world in a very nonparasitic way. What would the Chinese workers do if we didn't buy their output?

Quote from: Fëanor on December 01, 2020, 06:18:31 AM
Can the USA continued in its privileged situation indefinitely? 

     Yes, it can, but indefinite only means that goods for currency isn't inherently unstable. The world won't run out of goods to sell and despite the best efforts of economic charlatans the US will not run out of dollars. That is not a prediction that the balance won't change, only that the theory advanced here would not be the reason.

     It's pretty much the same sort of unsustainability as the national debt pseudo-crisis. There's supposedly an upper limit on nominal savings, and when we hit that "some day" dollars won't spend any more.
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Todd

Quote from: Fëanor on December 01, 2020, 06:18:31 AM
The US does benefit.  The existing framework has outlived its usefulness, and an alternative is needed, and has been for a long time.  Your statement about the US trade deficit does not comport with either statistical evidence or any extant international trade theory.



Au contraire, the USA's huge trade deficit is very clear ...



It is simply an economic fact that a nation's capital surplus/deficit must precisely offset it's trade & services deficit/surplus.

The USA is an historical anomaly.  In the 19th century  for instance the UK was the "largest and strongest" nation in the world but it generally ran trade surpluses and was an net exporter of capital, (much of which when to the USA to finance railroads, etc.).  Can the USA continued in its privileged situation indefinitely?  It will for while but not forever


I am well aware of US trade statistics.  I am well aware of the UK's trade history, and the fact that UK trade at the height of empire was skewed because of its reliance on exploiting colonies.  I am also aware of the trade patterns and impact on global trade of the only other historical antecedent to the US, the Mongolian Empire.  While interesting, those facts do not change the associated underlying structural facts that allow the US to continue to run immense trade deficits, which do not matter nearly as much as people assert.  Nor does trade theory change.

To be clear, I have openly advocated for a dissolution of the existing international system for years.  It cannot last forever.  What I hope to see is a dissolution of the existing system without the very frequent cause of prior dissolutions: great power war.


Quote from: Herman on December 01, 2020, 06:22:47 AM
You're trying to talk to someone who doesn't do facts. Only alternative facts.

Incorrect.
The universe is change; life is opinion. - Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

People would rather believe than know - E.O. Wilson

Propaganda death ensemble - Tom Araya

Fëanor

Quote from: Todd on December 01, 2020, 06:50:01 AM
I am well aware of US trade statistics.  I am well aware of the UK's trade history, and the fact that UK trade at the height of empire was skewed because of its reliance on exploiting colonies.  I am also aware of the trade patterns and impact on global trade of the only other historical antecedent to the US, the Mongolian Empire.  While interesting, those facts do not change the associated underlying structural facts that allow the US to continue to run immense trade deficits, which do not matter nearly as much as people assert.  Nor does trade theory change.

Well without trade deficits and corresponding capital surpluses American consumers wouldn't be nearly as well off as they are. ;)

Quote from: Todd on December 01, 2020, 06:50:01 AM
To be clear, I have openly advocated for a dissolution of the existing international system for years.  It cannot last forever.  What I hope to see is a dissolution of the existing system without the very frequent cause of prior dissolutions: great power war.

If you're going to sweep away the existing international system you ought to know what to replace it with and how you're going to do that.

Personally I'd soon be parasitized by the USA than by China.

drogulus

     If the international order can't last forever what's the point of dissolution? Is it a virtue signal?

Quote from: Fëanor on December 01, 2020, 08:24:41 AM

If you're going to sweep away the existing international system you ought to know what to replace it with and how you're going to do that.



     No one needs to know how the world order will evolve into something different in order for it to happen. It's a big ship with a small policy rudder to nudge it this way or that. My preferred nudge is in the direction of countries making each other great again and not everyone making themselves above average separately.
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Todd

Quote from: Fëanor on December 01, 2020, 08:24:41 AMWell without trade deficits and corresponding capital surpluses American consumers wouldn't be nearly as well off as they are.

That may not be the case.  And even if the US were less materially well off, so?


Quote from: Fëanor on December 01, 2020, 08:24:41 AMIf you're going to sweep away the existing international system you ought to know what to replace it with and how you're going to do that.

Sure, and that would be a vastly scaled back framework in which the US relies solely on offshore balancing to prevent regional hegemony in key areas, while dissolving the outdated post-war institutions that no longer serve the same purpose they did before.  Outright dissolution may not be needed in all cases.  For instance, the UN could remain as a hollow talking shop, and its headquarters could be moved to, say, Brussels.  Or Nairobi, who cares?


Quote from: Fëanor on December 01, 2020, 08:24:41 AMPersonally I'd soon be parasitized by the USA than by China.

A fairly common refrain, but a simultaneously bizarre and irrelevant one.  The US should pursue strategic security and financial policies focused on US interest above all else.  If small regional wars pop up here and there, that's fine.  The US does not need to be directly involved.  Or, alternatively, it may even make sense for the US to pursue destabilization policies in some instances.
The universe is change; life is opinion. - Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

People would rather believe than know - E.O. Wilson

Propaganda death ensemble - Tom Araya

Pohjolas Daughter

Quote from: T. D. on December 01, 2020, 09:46:36 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/trump-campaign-files-election-lawsuit-in-wisconsin-after-state-declares-biden-won-.html
Still shaking my head in disbelief at this guy....  :( ??? ::)  The waste of time, money and the courts' time(s)....$3 million; money that could have gone to feeding people?

PD
Pohjolas Daughter

T. D.


drogulus


     DOJ has not found fraud that would reverse Biden win over Trump, Attorney General William Barr says

Quote from: Todd on December 01, 2020, 10:23:17 AM


The US should pursue strategic security and financial policies focused on US interest above all else. 

     We do. Our interests are defended above all else by our alliances or we wouldn't have them. We can nudge them in a direction that we deem more favorable without defining interests so narrowly that we give up the advantages we get from positive sum arrangements. The world order doesn't have to be collapsed into wasteful chaos any more than the minimum that occurs whether we like it or not. Of course my nudge is for less "war of all against all" because I love peace almost as much as I love freedom and prosperity. I have to make compromises on all these wants, an OK thing.
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drogulus

Quote from: T. D. on December 01, 2020, 10:48:43 AM
OTOH,

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/doj-has-not-found-fraud-that-would-reverse-biden-win-over-trump-barr-says-.html

That's a surprise. Really. There's no bigger Cheeto puppet than Barr.

     Trump's election lawyers have responded to Barr's statement by saying he hasn't investigated the election, which is true. The AG is aware of efforts to create cases out of nothing and has nothing to add to what the judges have said about the nonsense presented to them.
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drogulus


     Barr is at the WH now.
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drogulus


     Another Official Is Ousted From the Pentagon

The ouster of the official, Christopher P. Maier, the head of the Pentagon's Defeat ISIS Task Force since March 2017, came just three weeks after President Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper and three other Pentagon officials, and replaced them with loyalists.

Mr. Maier's team served as a clearinghouse for the government's counterterrorism operations and policies. It was in the midst of answering dozens of questions from the incoming Biden team about the status of terrorist threats, relations with allies and counterterrorism missions when his team was disbanded. Now team members will be scattered across the vast Pentagon bureaucracy or returned to their home agencies.

Whether deliberate or not, the move by the newly promoted Pentagon leadership to eliminate that central hub will almost certainly slow the flow of counterterrorism information to Biden transition aides in the coming weeks, several officials said.


     If they can't stop the Biden transition they can at least cripple the Pentagon's counterterrorism shop. Good job.

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Pohjolas Daughter

Quote from: T. D. on December 01, 2020, 10:48:43 AM
OTOH,

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/doj-has-not-found-fraud-that-would-reverse-biden-win-over-trump-barr-says-.html

That's a surprise. Really. There's no bigger Cheeto puppet than Barr.
Lifting my jaw off of the floor now....
Quote from: drogulus on December 01, 2020, 11:13:47 AM
     Trump's election lawyers have responded to Barr's statement by saying he hasn't investigated the election, which is true. The AG is aware of efforts to create cases out of nothing and has nothing to add to what the judges have said about the nonsense presented to them.
Why waste the time and expend the effort?
Quote from: drogulus on December 01, 2020, 11:38:24 AM
     Another Official Is Ousted From the Pentagon

The ouster of the official, Christopher P. Maier, the head of the Pentagon's Defeat ISIS Task Force since March 2017, came just three weeks after President Trump fired Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper and three other Pentagon officials, and replaced them with loyalists.

Mr. Maier's team served as a clearinghouse for the government's counterterrorism operations and policies. It was in the midst of answering dozens of questions from the incoming Biden team about the status of terrorist threats, relations with allies and counterterrorism missions when his team was disbanded. Now team members will be scattered across the vast Pentagon bureaucracy or returned to their home agencies.

Whether deliberate or not, the move by the newly promoted Pentagon leadership to eliminate that central hub will almost certainly slow the flow of counterterrorism information to Biden transition aides in the coming weeks, several officials said.


     If they can't stop the Biden transition they can at least cripple the Pentagon's counterterrorism shop. Good job.


Oh, God help us!!!

PD
Pohjolas Daughter

T. D.



drogulus


     Justice Department investigating potential presidential pardon bribery scheme, court records reveal

"The political strategy to obtain a presidential pardon was 'parallel' to and distinct from [redacted]'s role as an attorney-advocate for [redacted name]," Howell wrote in her court order.

     No, I don't see any clues to the identity of these redacts.
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T. D.

#757
Quote from: drogulus on December 01, 2020, 03:22:22 PM
     Justice Department investigating potential presidential pardon bribery scheme, court records reveal

"The political strategy to obtain a presidential pardon was 'parallel' to and distinct from [redacted]'s role as an attorney-advocate for [redacted name]," Howell wrote in her court order.

     No, I don't see any clues to the identity of these redacts.
:laugh:
Yeah, they really obscured the identity!
Maybe it'll cause another meltdown!


But it's the DOJ, run by Cheeto Über-toady Barr. How far do you think the investigation will go?  :laugh:

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-55153918
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-01/trump-accused-by-gop-official-of-inspiring-threats-of-violence

Georgia's Republican voting system manager denounced President Donald Trump and the state's two Republican U.S. senators for not condemning, and even encouraging through silence, the threats of violence being made against election workers and the state's top elections official.

His voice shaking with anger, the normally even-keeled Gabriel Sterling said his boss, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, had received death threats, has had Trump supporters driving caravans around his house and entering his property and that "his wife of 40 years" has been getting threats over her mobile phone.

"It has to stop," he added.

Sterling said he decided to speak out after he learned about a series of threats against a 20-year-old contractor -- including photos of a noose with his name on it -- in response to a video of him working with a piece of election equipment. The video has been widely circulated this week by Trump backers as proof of fraud, which it's not, Sterling said.

"This kid took a job. He just took a job," Sterling said during a news conference on Tuesday in Atlanta to provide an update on the progress of a recount requested by Trump. "I can't begin to explain the level of anger I have right now over this. And every American, every Georgian, Republican and Democrat alike, should have that same level of anger."

SimonNZ

#758
I could link to the Washington Post article they quote or the Politico article they quote, but this deserves to be delivered Wonkette style:

and quoting (almost) in full:

Republican Senators Say 'Mean Tweets' Disqualify Biden Nominees. Make Your Own Joke, We're Fresh Out.

"The Republicans don't want to confirm "partisan" nominees to positions in the Biden administration? Really? REALLY?

Republicans are currently having a tantrum over the news that President-elect Joe Biden is nominating Neera Tanden to head the Office of Management and Budget because she said mean stuff about them on Twitter.

"I think, in light of her combative and insulting comments about many members of the Senate, mainly on our side of the aisle, that it creates certainly a problematic path," Texas Sen. John Cornyn said, calling Tanden "radioactive" and Biden's "worst nominee so far." After four years of pretending not to see the president's latest incendiary tweets, Republicans sat down with Hooked on Phonics over the holiday weekend and are suddenly able to read. Hosanna! And boy howdy are they offended.

"She's been pretty partisan in some of her previous positions. And in many cases, with respect to Republican senators who would have to vote on her potential nomination," South Dakota's John Thune told Politico, while Ohio's Rob Portman, who once headed the OMB himself, tut-tutted, "Of all the jobs, that's one where I think you would need to be careful not to have someone who's overtly partisan."

Russ Vought, the current head of OMB, was confirmed by a Republican Senate despite having said in 2016 that "Muslims do not simply have a deficient theology. They do not know God because they have rejected Jesus Christ his Son, and they stand condemned."

He was preceded in the position by Mick Mulvaney, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus. The same Mick Mulvaney who once described Social Security as a Ponzi scheme. The same Mick Mulvaney who accused Planned Parenthood of "trafficking in pieces of dead children." The same Mick Mulvaney who came before the American people and announced that the government had looked and looked, and the only place they could find to host the G-7 meeting was at Trump's Doral hotel. The same Mick Mulvaney who used his position to put a hold on congressionally allocated defense funds for Ukraine — you may remember something about that? — because the president was trying to squeeze that country into investigating Joe Biden.

And while we're on the subject of partisan nominees, let's talk about John Ratcliffe, the current Director of National Intelligence. Ratcliffe, who used his position on the House Intelligence Committee to run interference for Trump during the impeachment, accused Democrats of fabricating evidence in the Russia investigation, and publicly mischaracterized former DOJ employee Lisa Page's testimony about the Hillary Clinton email investigation. Ratcliffe's first nomination to DNI was scuttled after it emerged that he'd lied on his resume. The Senate only confirmed him, despite his lack of legally mandated qualifications, because otherwise Trump was going to keep that nasty Twitter troll Ric Grenell in the position indefinitely.

Grenell, perhaps the least diplomatic person alive, was confirmed 56-41 as ambassador to Germany, where he immediately set about offending one of our staunchest allies.

Mike Pompeo, who led the Benghazi hearings to prove that Hillary Clinton was somehow responsible for an attack on an embassy halfway around the world, sailed through his confirmation to head the CIA and later as secretary of State. The same Republican Senate that sat on Merrick Garland's nomination for a year was happy to bless the elevation of various purse designers, coal magnates, dermatologists, and rich donors to represent our country abroad.

Leave aside the fact that these assholes had zero problem with Trump withholding his tax returns. Forget even that the president's son-in-law, whose portfolio includes "everything," had such skeevy secrets he couldn't get a security clearance without a shove from the president.

We've got a coal lobbyist running the EPA, an oil lobbyist as Interior secretary, a corporate lobbyist running the Department of Labor, a Transportation secretary whose family runs a shipping company, a lawyer for the steel industry as the US Trade Representative, a Commerce secretary who still hasn't managed to divest himself of all his various business interests, an Energy secretary who represented an automobile trade association, and we'd still have a former Raytheon lobbyist at Defense if Trump could manage to keep help for more than five minutes.

And while we're on the topic, Republicans didn't give a rat's ass if Trump used "acting" staffers to indefinitely evade the Senate's right to vote on nominees to top jobs.

It doesn't make a damn bit of difference who Biden nominates. The GOP is already announcing its plans to obstruct the incoming administration at every turn — albeit usually less idiotically than Josh Hawley.

Senate Republicans manifestly do not care about conflicts of interest or partisanship or actual qualifications for the job. Neera Tanden is a qualified labor economist who called them names, and now they're going to sulk and play the victim. Third verse, same as the first."

Karl Henning

Someone on Twitter speculated, if Trump pardons the turkey, is he only pardoning the white meat?
And I thought, well, what did the dark meat ever do for HIM?
Karl Henning, Ph.D.
Composer & Clarinetist
Boston MA
http://www.karlhenning.com/
[Matisse] was interested neither in fending off opposition,
nor in competing for the favor of wayward friends.
His only competition was with himself. — Françoise Gilot