USA Politics (redux)

[Mandryka]

Can I ask a question which may appear very naive, but the more I think about it the less I'm clear.

Why did Trump lose the last election?

or maybe I should say, I don't know

Why did Biden win the last election?

[71 dB]

Can I ask a question which may appear very naive, but the more I think about it the less I'm clear.

Why did Trump lose the last election?

or maybe I should say, I don't know

Why did Biden win the last election?

I'd mention three main reasons:

1) Trump's presidency overall was so bad the Democratic voters were active to make sure he doesn't get 4 more years.
2) The bad handling of Covid-19 pandemic revealed the incompetence of Trump. Outsider became insider, part of the swamp.
3) Joe Biden is not hated the same way Hillary Clinton is.

Althou Biden got 7 million more votes than Trump, the election was actually very close. Some 50,000 more votes for Trump in a few swing states Trump now lost would have change the outcome of the election. Trump getting re-elected in 2024 is a real danger and the scary thing is the Democrats don't have the means to address the danger because most of them are too corrupt. Just look how much they struggle to get $15 living wage implemented even when controlling everything: The house, the senate and presidency. The weakest political party ever... 

[Mandryka]

2) The bad handling of Covid-19 pandemic revealed the incompetence of Trump. Outsider became insider, part of the swamp.

So he couldn't manage perception on that issue, and that contributed to his downfall. Somehow the health crisis was a dose of reality which even Trump couldn't obscure. If that's right it's interesting because it seems to show that reality is still a force in a democracy, Trump didn't find a way of protecting himself, despite his control of the media.

[Fëanor]

I'd mention three main reasons:

1) Trump's presidency overall was so bad the Democratic voters were active to make sure he doesn't get 4 more years.
2) The bad handling of Covid-19 pandemic revealed the incompetence of Trump. Outsider became insider, part of the swamp.
3) Joe Biden is not hated the same way Hillary Clinton is.
...

Yes, probably these are the main points.

I was told by quite a few Americans after the 2016 election that while they didn't thing highly of Trump they positively were not going to voted for Hillary

If Trump had crushed the Covid-19 pandemic he would have won the election, however there never was much chance of that.

[DavidW]

#2 is by far the strongest.  I don't actually think #1 is right.  Elections are won or lost based on the undecided more than the entrenched.  I didn't see the election as a win for the democratic party, but rather as a loss for the republican party. I would add a #4, when Trump won in 2016 it was with a promise that he would be a breath of fresh air in Washington.  He not only failed but increased the corruption and bipartisanship despite promising the opposite.

[Herman]

Yes, probably these are the main points.

I was told by quite a few Americans after the 2016 election that while they didn't think highly of Trump, they positively were not going to vote for Hillary

Hillary got three million more votes than Trump in 2016.

If Trump had crushed the Covid-19 pandemic he would have won the election, however there never was much chance of that.

As a professional con man Trump operates on the principle / belief that people that people will buy whatever he says. In the case of Covid a sufficient nr of people did not buy his "like a miracle it'll go away".

Fauci clearly was a more dependable figure than Trump, to many people.

[71 dB]

Hillary got three million more votes than Trump in 2016.

Unfortunately in wrong places. Tons of votes in California don't help if you need them in the rust belt and Hillary ignored the rust belt.

[Herman]

Looking at clips from CPAC I'm surprised the amount of yelling speakers.

I mean, Don Jr. and his ghastly Frankenbride, you expect them to be unaware you don't have to raise your voice with a microphone. But Gaetz, Cruz and some other guy I don't know, they're all yelling.

The history of yelling politrcal speakers is not too great. One yells to instill fear, and at some point fear will turn against you.

[Herman]

Unfortunately in wrong places. Tons of votes in California don't help if you need them in the rust belt and Hillary ignored the rust belt.

I know. I'm just a little tired of the "nobody liked Hillary" thing.

[Karl Henning]

Looking at clips from CPAC I'm surprised the amount of yelling speakers.

They're picking up right where the RNC left off.

[71 dB]

I know. I'm just a little tired of the "nobody liked Hillary" thing.

Before Trump won I thought Hillary is very much loved! That's why her defeat was so surprising to me. I didn't know Democrats are also very corrupt and how some people really hate Hillary. Learning about these things explained a lot! Of course you are right saying it's silly to say EVERYONE hates Hillary. Hillary could have won if she had made a smart campaing, but of course she didn't, arrogant, out-of-touch and corrupt as she is.

[Fëanor]

Before Trump won I thought Hillary is very much loved! That's why her defeat was so surprising to me. I didn't know Democrats are also very corrupt and how some people really hate Hillary. Learning about these things explained a lot! Of course you are right saying it's silly to say EVERYONE hates Hillary. Hillary could have won if she had made a smart campaing, but of course she didn't, arrogant, out-of-touch and corrupt as she is.

Of course not everybody hates Hillary Clinton.  For a start it helps hating her if you're a hardcore Republican partisan and Democrat hater.  After that all it takes is a mild sensitivity to her smarminess.

[BasilValentine]

Looking at clips from CPAC I'm surprised the amount of yelling speakers.

I mean, Don Jr. and his ghastly Frankenbride, you expect them to be unaware you don't have to raise your voice with a microphone. But Gaetz, Cruz and some other guy I don't know, they're all yelling.

The history of yelling politrcal speakers is not too great. One yells to instill fear, and at some point fear will turn against you.

They're all yelling and not a single one of them believes what they're yelling. Anyone supporting Trump at this point is accepting his de facto platform for the Republican Party, which is the end of free elections, the end of the rule of law, and the end of democracy. They are trying to establish a kleptocratic oligarchy and dictatorship in which they maintain and expand their power. Treating them as anything but aspiring criminals against humanity is naive.

[Herman]

well, the GOP has been a minority party for a couple of decades now.

voter supression has been a central plank for them much longer.

the open violence is new however.

[71 dB]

well, the GOP has been a minority party for a couple of decades now.

voter supression has been a central plank for them much longer.

the open violence is new however.

They are losing the cultural war. They are losing the demographic change. Soon voter suppression/gerrymandering etc. just isn't enough to keep GOP in power. If you lose one war, you can start new ones: War on facts. Trump won that war. Facts are not a thing anymore. Now what you believe yourself is called fact. If you believe Biden stole the election then that's the fact for you. Now we also have War on democracy. Hence open violence. All this on top of everything else. The future of the US is very very dark. Tons of turmoil ahead before things can get better. 

[Fëanor]

They are losing the cultural war. They are losing the demographic change. Soon voter suppression/gerrymandering etc. just isn't enough to keep GOP in power. If you lose one war, you can start new ones: War on facts. Trump won that war. Facts are not a thing anymore. Now what you believe yourself is called fact. If you believe Biden stole the election then that's the fact for you. Now we also have War on democracy. Hence open violence. All this on top of everything else. The future of the US is very very dark. Tons of turmoil ahead before things can get better. 

Biden has got to perform well in office -- in large part that means he has to be lucky.

I have predicted for decades that if democracy fails in the USA it will right-wing authoritarianism that replaces it, not Communism, socialism, or the "extreme left".  This will happen in 2024 if Biden fares poorly and Trump or a surrogate, say Ted Cruz, runs for the Republicans.

[T. D.]

Biden has got to perform well in office -- in large part that means he has to be lucky.

I have predicted for decades that if democracy fails in the USA it will right-wing authoritarianism that replaces it, not Communism, socialism, or the "extreme left".  This will happen in 2024 if Biden fares poorly and Trump or a surrogate, say Ted Cruz, runs for the Republicans.

Good recent article on that theme:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-split-over-how-much-the-party-and-american-democracy-itself-are-in-danger/

[Fëanor]

Good recent article on that theme:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-split-over-how-much-the-party-and-american-democracy-itself-are-in-danger/

Thank you for that link;  I've only begun to read the article but I will finish it.

There is a real threat to democracy in the USA -- if it had been military leaders had been willing to support Trump instead of just rabble on January 6th there would have been a (successful) coup.  Thank goodness former Sec. of Defense spoke up for democracy and/or maybe it was Pelosi's  chat with the Joint Chief of Staff.  Sorry that was just too close for comfort.

On top of the US' four-way checks & balances, (Exec, Senate, HofR, Supreme Court), the Senate 60 vote requirement is a monstrosity that ensures deadlock -- not to mention Republican control despite being their being a minority.

[71 dB]

Biden has got to perform well in office -- in large part that means he has to be lucky.

I have predicted for decades that if democracy fails in the USA it will right-wing authoritarianism that replaces it, not Communism, socialism, or the "extreme left".  This will happen in 2024 if Biden fares poorly and Trump or a surrogate, say Ted Cruz, runs for the Republicans.

He won't perform well* in office. Just like Obama, he will be a mixed bag. Some good stuff balancing out bad stuff. He is a status quo manager who bombs random brown people in Syria before giving Americans Covid relief - or healthcare - or living wage - or student loan debt cancellation. Americans keep suffering, but at least the military industry complex, Wall Street, Big Pharma and insurance companies are doing great! Business as usual. That's what status quo managers do. Performing well in office isn't even tried.

Social democracy is the best way to protect capitalism. Who opposes capitalism, if it works for people? Social democracy it the way to make capitalism work for people. Anyone who is scared for capitalism and communism/sosialism replacing it should be an advocate of social democracy. The US doesn't even have capitalism. It has crony capitalism aka socialism for the rich.

Communist revolutions is a danger when people are driven to total despair and they have nothing to lose. Right-wing authoritarianism is also a danger and in the US this is pretty evident. Republicans have an easy job of getting back in power unless Trump forms his own party splitting up the party.

* Well, he will do better than Trump, but that's a REALLY low bar. 

[Fëanor]

...
Social democracy is the best way to protect capitalism. Who opposes capitalism, if it works for people? Social democracy it the way to make capitalism work for people. Anyone who is scared for capitalism and communism/sosialism replacing it should be an advocate of social democracy. The US doesn't even have capitalism. It has crony capitalism aka socialism for the rich.
...

I think you are profoundly correct that social democracy is the savior of capitalism but this far from understood by Americans including the politicians.

Measures such as universal healthcare, fully accessible and equal education for all, adequate minimum wage, etc., are necessary to make capitalism tolerable to ordinary working people -- they are NOT classic socialism.  Trump supporters, (apart from opportunists and lackeys), are overwhelmingly "ordinary working people", (albeit most of them White);  unfortunately Trump and Republican Party have convinced that them these services are "socialist".  So sad:  they are afflicted by the uniquely American myth of the rugged, self-reliant individual.