USA Politics (redux)

[milk]

What Orbán's Apologists Reveal About Themselves

I went and read the conservative defense of Orban (https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/tucker-carlson-budapest-viktor-orban-blowing-people-minds-david-frum/) and it's pretty scary. Liberalism is certainly under attack from the right and left. Of course, the point that's driving the left and right comes from real grievances and dissatisfaction. Dennis Prager, and the like, make a pretty good living off fear. It's so interesting how directly and specifically left and right wing culture name liberalism as a curse.

[MusicTurner]

Seems like the quick US leave from Afghanistan has been under-researched, and disastrous for a large part of the local population. In a matter of days/a couple of weeks, the Talibans are taking over the entire country again. Apparently at least Kabul suburbs now.

EDIT: Danish foreign minister and previous ditto are now openly critical towards the US administration not informing about the steps taken, or involving others in the decision-making to leave. This is extremely rare. DK is one of the countries that in relation to population has lost most soldiers in Afghanistan, so it's also a domestic issue here. But governments from both side of the political spectrum have been involved in the mission, so it's rather a problem for the "political establishment" generally, that so many died partly in vain - 37 in combat, 7 during their mission through accidents, sickness etc.

The only good thing about the 20 years of war, besides the elimination of the terrorist groups long ago, is probably that the educational level of parts of the population has been improved somewhat, and that a good deal of foreign money came into the country. Apparently Taliban says they'll allow girls going to school now, though it's difficult to say how much there actually is to this.

[Karl Henning]

Seems like the quick US leave from Afghanistan has been under-researched, and disastrous for a large part of the local population. In a matter of days/a couple of weeks, the Talibans are taking over the entire country again. Apparently at least Kabul suburbs now.

EDIT: Danish foreign minister and previous ditto are now openly critical towards the US administration not informing about the steps taken, or involving others in the decision-making to leave. This is extremely rare. DK is one of the countries that in relation to population has lost most soldiers in Afghanistan, so it's also a domestic issue here. But governments from both side of the political spectrum have been involved in the mission, so it's rather a problem for the "political establishment" generally, that so many died partly in vain - 37 in combat, 7 during their mission through accidents, sickness etc.

The only good thing about the 20 years of war, besides the elimination of the terrorist groups long ago, is probably that the educational level of parts of the population has been improved somewhat, and that a good deal of foreign money came into the country. Apparently Taliban says they'll allow girls going to school now, though it's difficult to say how much there actually is to this.

A catastrophe on the part of the current Administration

[MusicTurner]

Some of the thoughts here are that:

1) there'll be no stable, centralized control of all of Afghanistan by the Taliban; it will be a civil war at least to some degree, also with China and Russia supporting people who represent their interests; for example, they'll be afraid of terrorism spreading from Afghanistan to Southern Russia and the Uighurs. There will be atrocities from the new regime too.

2) the Taliban aren't used to being a government, and there are different fractions, including some with a somewhat more modern approach, such as the privileged exiles that have lived in Qatar and done negotiations there; some of them have put their children in ~Western elite schools, for example.

3) it seems that both recent US administrations have chosen to ignore intelligence advice about how things would be going, choosing a sortie in stead.

4) the 300,000 men strong, modernized Afghanistan army must have seen a huge number of defections in the last days.

[Iota]

the 300,000 men strong, modernized Afghanistan army must have seen a huge number of defections in the last days.

There's an interesting/depressing article here explaining why government forces who supposedly greatly outnumbered and outgunned the Taliban, fell so quickly.

Corruption is one of the problems, some commanders apparently claiming the salaries of troops that don't even exist, and even the Afghan army doesn't know how many troops it has (although I guess 'had' is the right tense to use now). But other factors covered in the article certainly played their part too.

One thing is clear, which is that the Western intervention papered over the cracks rather than effectively addressing the structural causes of the cracks. And as soon as they left and took their 'paper' with them, the cracks remain there as clear as ever and perhaps widening. Who knows where this is leading.

[MusicTurner]

A good article, it seems, from when prospects weren't overcome by the sudden events.

Among other things stating: "the Taliban is closer to a coalition of independent franchise holders loosely - and most probably temporarily - affiliated with one another .... the Afghan government, too, is as riven by local factional motivations. Afghanistan's shape changing history illustrates how families, tribes and even government officials have switched sides - often to ensure their own survival."

Maybe it will harder for Taliban to control for example the capital's younger, more well-educated classes. But then, in Iran things have remained by and large status quo as regards suppression, for decades, with a similar generation gap ...

[Fëanor]

Afghanistan remains a tribe-centered, semi-literate society based, (as such societies usually are), on patronage and corruption and where "liberal" values hold little sway.  The Afghan governments since the US, Coalition invasion haven't been able to change the this fact to any significant degree.

Ironically maybe, the Taliban promises more unity and purpose based on religious conformity, (despite that the Taliban itself is by no means a unified, centrally directed organization).  Plus the Taliban does offer something that is highly persuasive -- the threat of vicious reprisal against anyone opposes it.

The situation has reminds me strongly of the collapse of Iraqi forces in the face of ISIS advance a few years ago.

[BasilValentine]

Among the things I've heard during NPR's non-stop coverage today:

A former Canadian ambassador saying that Pakistani military intelligence is a prime mover behind Taliban actions and a US trainer of the Afghan military saying: We built a national army for a nation that doesn't exist, modeled precisely on ours, a structure meaningless and foreign to the indigenous population.

Worst of all, in my view, we abandoned thousands of Afghans who worked for the US military and to whom we promised visas, along with their families, to torture and death. That's a national disgrace and an indelible stain on whatever honor the US pretends to. 

[MusicTurner]

"This is not Saigon once again", they officially say ...

[Fëanor]

Among the things I've heard during NPR's non-stop coverage today:

A former Canadian ambassador saying that Pakistani military intelligence is a prime mover behind Taliban actions and a US trainer of the Afghan military saying: We built a national army for a nation that doesn't exist, modeled precisely on ours, a structure meaningless and foreign to the indigenous population.

Worst of all, in my view, we abandoned thousands of Afghans who worked for the US military and to whom we promised visas, along with their families, to torture and death. That's a national disgrace and an indelible stain on whatever honor the US pretends to.

Yes, that's the worst of it.  Canada too has been too slow to offer asylum to their translator and other supporters of Canadian troop.  Only mitigating this injustice in a limited degree is that the Afghan state collapsed faster than expected.

But as we agreed above, Afghanistan isn't really a state, it's hodge-podge of tribal constituencies.  "Nation building" by an outsider is impossible:  a nation can only be built done by the natives themselves.  An outsider can help in some instances, but ultimately Afghans rejected this assistance.

[milk]

Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden. All of them. What a disgrace. Let me add Blair. The biggest booby prize has to go to W though. These are sad disgraceful times. 

[Spotted Horses]

Worst of all, in my view, we abandoned thousands of Afghans who worked for the US military and to whom we promised visas, along with their families, to torture and death. That's a national disgrace and an indelible stain on whatever honor the US pretends to.

That is the only thing I regret.  Those who worked with the U.S. military and NATO should have been brought out. That is Biden's failure. As far as the U.S. withdrawal and takeover by the Taliban, I see nothing to regret in that, except that it wasn't done sooner. The Taliban is the legitimate government of Afghanistan, to the extent that Afghanistan is a country and to the extent that the Taliban is a government. If the people living in that part of the world want a different future they have to make it themselves. Twenty years supposedly building a state that couldn't stand on its own long enough for U.S. troops to pull out.

[Spotted Horses]

Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden. All of them. What a disgrace. Let me add Blair. The biggest booby prize has to go to W though. These are sad disgraceful times.

Which Clinton are you referring to?

[MusicTurner]

Macron has delivered a quite fine statesman speech about 11 minutes long to the French, about the situation. Commemorating the 90 fatalities, he stressed how the French military left Afghanistan in 2014, and discreetly suggested they seemed better prepared for a quick evacuation; 800, including 600 assisting Afghans are out, some dozens remain, protected by French troops, was the overall estimate. He thanked the US for helping the evacuation in recent days.

The oncoming refugee situation is obviously a big matter of concern in Europe, and Macron stressed the need for international work and pressure for human and women's rights in Afghanistan, and organizing/harmonizing of the refugee process on an EU level, where he also acknowledged the moral responsibilities of the West. He has contacted European leaders about it, and he also stated that Afghanistan is now facing many problems, plus prepared the French for the refugee issue.

The Danish government is met with local critique here for not being sufficiently prepared for the evacuation. In the past weeks they have been reluctant to acknowledge responsibility in helping Afghan assistants with asylum, making the current events even more disorganized. A hardline immigration policy became too immoral, according to many here, including me. However, in the last couple of days, some special airplanes and forces have allegedly helped to get out about 440, but some of them remain.

However, the moment a date for pull-out of foreign troops was fixed, back in 2020, the chaos should have been planned for, since the prospects were that Taliban didn't have any real obligations to follow, the foreign troops would just leave anyway.

[MusicTurner]

Beyond the blame game: 6 previous foreign ministers here in DK agree that the Afghanistan events will mark a shift: a marked strengthening of a more separate EU security policy, and probably extreme hesitations in involvement in any future nationbuilding- or military campaigns that aren't UN-supported or the result of direct NATO commitment. Since WWII, DK has always leaned towards the US and to some extent the UK in its security policies, as a counterweight to our strong, potentially domineering German neighbours, but this is likely to change one way or the other.

But what it means in relation to China (or Russia) is under debate; there has also been a shift recently towards a much more critical attitude towards China.

I suppose the US public also sense a generally lessened US interest in the Middle East, or fatigue about related nation-building projects, where it is difficult to find much success.

[milk]

Which Clinton are you referring to?

I was thinking Bill. I mean, this is more on republicans and neocons. But Carter continued Reagan's policy vis a vis mujahideen. But Now that I think about it, Hillary was also more involved vis a vis the Obama years.
Biden gets the most credit for finally ending this. All these neocons tearing their collective hair out this week is disgusting. As if the last 20 years prove anything could be done to make anything better - even on the way out.

[Florestan]

The big question is: how on earth did the most formidable professional military force in history fail to destroy, during twenty full and long years, a gang of bearded, turbaned, sneaker-or-sandal-wearing guerillas armed with rifles or semi-automatic firearms?

[BasilValentine]

The big question is: how on earth did the most formidable professional military force in history fail to destroy, during twenty full and long years, a gang of bearded, turbaned, sneaker-or-sandal-wearing guerillas armed with rifles or semi-automatic firearms?

You don't know much about guerilla warfare, do you? 

[arpeggio]

I am a member of a military history group that has been discussing the situation.   A few of our members work at the pentagon and one is civilian instructor of strategy for the Marine Corps at Quantico. 

Although there is some disagreements the general consensus is:

The United States lost the war in 2006.  Instead of facing the reality the US spent fifteen years trying to turn things around.

There is plenty of blame to go around.  No matter who was President, this would have occurred when we withdrew.  The current plan to withdraw was actually negotiated by the Trump Administration. 

One of the problems in that the central government in Kabul was very corrupt.  For example we were paying most of the salaries of the Afghan soldiers.  Most of the Afghan officers were pocketing the money and not paying the soldiers.  There were many soldiers that had not been paid in months.

There are some members of my group who were veterans of the war in Afghanistan.  They felt that we could have won the war if we had not attacked Iraq.  We did not have the resources to fight both wars.  If a person is not going to believe this group of military historians and veterans, I seriously doubt that they will believe anything that little old me has to say.     

[SimonNZ]

The big question is: how on earth did the most formidable professional military force in history fail to destroy, during twenty full and long years, a gang of bearded, turbaned, sneaker-or-sandal-wearing guerillas armed with rifles or semi-automatic firearms?

Especially knowing how easy the Russiqns found it....amirite?