Europe at War

[MusicTurner]

It must be noted, though, that the Russian soldier acts with restraint and is not aggressive. Had he been a bastard, who knows what could have happened to that woman.

She was carrying a mobile herself, filming it (live?). That version can be seen on the internet too. A smart move to have two cameras.
https://twitter.com/TweetLatestNews/status/1497250484238917634

[foxandpeng]

I am in total shock. My life is over, because all I can do now is to fear the day Putin decides to attack my country. Happiness is impossible.

Sending you best wishes. Anxiety and fear are dreadful things.

[amw]

Both Putin and Zelensky have now signalled they're open to negotiations, although they have yet to agree on where they will happen and under what conditions. That's a promising sign, even though they're both trying to stall until someone achieves a military victory, through various tactics (Putin, immediately after claiming he wanted to negotiate, called upon the Ukrainian armed forces to overthrow and replace Zelensky, which obviously isn't going to happen; Zelensky, immediately after claiming he wanted to negotiate, stopped responding to communications from Russia, which is the time-honoured the "new phone, who dis" ploy). Might be another couple of days before an actual ceasefire.

Ukraine claims ~2800 Russian casualties, which observers think is exaggerated, but the number's still likely high enough to keep fuelling antiwar protests in Russia. No indications of current Ukrainian casualties, but they've lost ground, particularly in the north, and Russian forces are now on the ground and actively contesting areas as far west as Mykolaiv. Urban warfare is ongoing in Kherson, Melitopol (still—despite claims of Russian control; this has probably been the bloodiest battle so far), and the Kiev suburbs. Supposedly, an amphibious assault on Odessa is planned, but it remains to be seen if that will amount to anything. Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, have potentially broken through back into Donetsk and Luhansk, although probably facing pro-Russian militias rather than the Russian army itself, and continue to dig in in areas east of Kiev while Russian forces control the western approaches to the city.

This isn't Gaza 2008 (yet) or the Eastern Front 1941 (hopefully ever), but there are definite similarities to Iran-Iraq 1980, which led to a stalemate by the end of the year: a limited initial blitzkrieg rapidly devolving into urban warfare, based on ethnonationalist justifications, with the attacker expecting local civilian support that never materialises. But with a few crucial differences (everything happening much faster, no chemical weapons involved, and both parties being already open to negotiation) that will hopefully ensure it doesn't continue into Iran-Iraq 1981-1991.

Worth remembering the scale of the human impact: Melitopol, sometimes described as a "small town" in the media, is roughly the size of Oxford (or Tallahassee, FL; or, for that matter, Raqqah). Kherson is roughly the size of Brighton (or Richmond, VA; or, for that matter, Hebron) and Mykolaiv and Luhansk are roughly the size of the Hague (or Atlanta, GA; or, for that matter, Homs). Kiev/Kyiv is larger than Paris or Damascus and about the same size as Chicago (although all of these cities have somewhat larger metropolitan areas). Kharkiv and Donetsk are comparable to Birmingham (or Austin, TX; or, for that matter, Jerusalem). Ukraine is only a "small" country by comparison with Russia, and many of the cities where the war is unfolding are comparable in population, and therefore potential human tragedy, to the Middle Eastern cities we've seen disaster porn of for ~20 years.

I am in total shock. My life is over, because all I can do now is to fear the day Putin decides to attack my country. Happiness is impossible.

Hopefully some people will survive this madness (assuming the WWIII doesn't start in the near future). I don't feel like posting at all.

The "good" news is that Putin's official justification for invading Ukraine is a pan-Russianist ethnonationalist ideology, and there aren't significant amounts of Russians in Finland. In addition, more realistically, Donetsk and Luhansk have already been in a state of war for eight years, with some 14,000 deaths (mostly civilian), which in some respects made an eventual escalation inevitable; after Nagorno-Karabakh, which was a relative disaster for Russia, it needed to regain the trust of the separatist groups it's been sponsoring. People in Finland should be significantly more worried about future wars or low-intensity conflicts in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, and the potential repercussions these may have.

[MusicTurner]

To me, Putin/Lavrov's suggestion of negotiating in Minsk seems like a case of mocking. Belarus has been annexed by Russia, which has invasion bases there, and Belarus for example recently forced a civilian RyanAir airplane down to arrest a regime-critical passenger on board. I don't think the Ukrainians would be safe. And the Russians have openly promised to arrest or eliminate parts of the current Ukrainian leadership, as an essential part of their invasion. So maybe Minsk is therefore an inside joke, less decipherable by Xi, who is less happy about the invasion, and whom Putin just spoke with on the phone, to perhaps yet demonstrate a certain will for peace.

The info from a lot of military experts is that
- Russia has apparently met more initial resistance than it expected
- about 1/3 of the invasion army is in Ukraine now, but due to the circumstances, soon, heavier and probably more indiscrimate bombings and artillery fires will begin. That is, unless Kyiv falls quickly.
- urban fighting anywhere will be extremely violent, it will minimize Russian superiority; as a rule of thumb, attackers are thought to need a majority of 6:1 for a guaranteed victory.

Btw, Germany and Italy are now supporting the  Swift sanctions too.

[JBS]

To me, Putin/Lavrov's suggestion of negotiating in Minsk seems like a case of mocking. Belarus has been annexed by Russia, which has invasion bases there, and Belarus for example recently forced a civilian RyanAir airplane down to arrest a regime-critical passenger on board. I don't think the Ukrainians would be safe. And the Russians have openly promised to arrest or eliminate parts of the current Ukrainian leadership, as an essential part of their invasion. So maybe Minsk is therefore an inside joke, less decipherable by Xi, who is less happy about the invasion, and whom Putin just spoke with on the phone, to perhaps yet demonstrate a certain will for peace.

I would suggest it was meant as a reference to the Minsk agreements of 2014/2015

Although given the rather maximalist claims and regime-change style rhetoric Putin has adopted, what exactly would they negotiate?

[amw]

To me, Putin/Lavrov's suggestion of negotiating in Minsk seems like a case of mocking.

Zelensky's immediate counter-offer was Warsaw, which is equally unrealistic, with Poland widely viewed in Russia as a Western puppet state. There is a relative shortage of neutral parties who would be trusted by both sides. As such I wouldn't call this a joke; it's the initial haggling over place, time and conditions that always precedes any diplomatic encounter. (And Minsk was the site of the last round of negotiations. Circumstances there have changed, obviously.)

I do think a ceasefire (or multiple attempts at one, at least) is likely in the next few days. But given Russia's demands (it wants Ukraine to completely demilitarise, recognise Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and grant independence to the Donbass region, among others), I would not expect much progress to be made.

Btw, Germany and Italy are now supporting the  Swift sanctions too.

The real question is probably Rosneft.

[71 dB]

So? What exactly did Ukraine do to provoke the Russian invasion?

Ukraine is too Western/European, too democratic and unwilling to be Putin's puppet state the way Belarus is. They are even considering joining Nato!

But for the long term, Finland and Sweden should be making applications to NATO on an emergency basis, today. By joining NATO, Finland and Sweden would enhance their security immeasurably, as any attack on a member requires a response from all other members. Realistically, it's the only solution that offers permanent protection.

1) I don't have a strong opinion about Nato because I don't know enough to have one
2) I refuse to debate about Nato membership because of 1)
3) My opinion doesn't even matter. It is not up to me.

[71 dB]

Sending you best wishes. Anxiety and fear are dreadful things.

Thank You! I have been watching Snooker (O'Sullivan vs Ford) and WWE wrestling (RAW) as escapism to take my mind off the horror in Ukraine... ...at least for a moment... 

[Madiel]

This may become relevant if Trump ever gets back into office.

Quite.

The whole problem with strategy of invoking history is you can usually pick a bit of history that suits you.

We need to decouple a sense of connection from a claim of ownership.

[bhodges]

More from Carnegie Hall just now:

CARNEGIE HALL PERFORMANCES BY
MARIINSKY ORCHESTRA
WITH VALERY GERGIEV
ON MAY 3 & 4 ARE CANCELLED

(New York, NY, February 25, 2022)—Carnegie Hall announced today that its upcoming performances by the Mariinsky Orchestra, led by Valery Gergiev—scheduled for Tuesday, May 3 and Wednesday, May 4—have been cancelled due to recent world events as well as ongoing challenges related to the global COVID-19 pandemic.

These concerts will not be rescheduled.


--Bruce

[JBS]

Quite.

The whole problem with strategy of invoking history is you can usually pick a bit of history that suits you.
.

Reminder:  Russia claimed at one point in the 19th century the entire Pacific coast down to San Francisco or thereabouts.

I'm sure, given the rhetoric the RW uses about California, at least some US RWers would gladly give the state to Putin.

[Karl Henning]

Putin's No Madman

[Karl Henning]

This will be a long fight. President Biden spoke of years of isolation for Putin. Russia will join the ranks of Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela as rogue states ruled by tyrants, cut out of the global system. This is something that should have been done long ago; it should never have required a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

These sanctions are no longer about deterrence. They are about reducing Putin's capacity and disabling his war machine. The United States and its allies should also be exploring other options to degrade Putin's ability to threaten peace and freedom in Europe and around the world. Everything needs to be on the table.

RTWT here.

[JBS]

For Florestan

https://twitter.com/AM_Friedman/status/1497351012234977291

Alexandra Friedman
@AM_Friedman
Apparently, thousands of Romanians have been waiting in their personal vehicles to pick up #refugees at one of the NE borders with #Ukraine.
I'm not often elated at news from back home, but this makes my heart swell. #StandWithUkriane #standwithrefugees

[Karl Henning]

Seen on Twitter

[Spotted Horses]

My wife's brother's wife's sister lives in Odessa. What I heard fifth hand (from my wife, who heard it from her father in Finland, who heard it from her brother in Finland, who heard it from his wife, who heard it from her sister in The Ukraine) is that in Odessa (as of Feb 25) they hear explosions and gunfire from their apartment, and have been instructed by the authorities not to leave their homes. (How does one get food under these conditions?) The parents have resolved to remain, the husband is not permitted to leave the country, perhaps because he will be required serve in the defense forces, but the sister and her daughter are considering fleeing to Moldova, where they would be refugees. They want their child to live in a free country, not under Russian oppression.

It's one family, it's a data point.

[bhodges]

For Florestan

https://twitter.com/AM_Friedman/status/1497351012234977291

Alexandra Friedman
@AM_Friedman
Apparently, thousands of Romanians have been waiting in their personal vehicles to pick up #refugees at one of the NE borders with #Ukraine.
I'm not often elated at news from back home, but this makes my heart swell. #StandWithUkriane #standwithrefugees

What beautiful news, thank you.  0:)

--Bruce

[bhodges]

My wife's brother's wife's sister lives in Odessa. What I heard fifth hand (from my wife, who heard it from her father in Finland, who heard it from her brother in Finland, who heard it from his wife, who heard it from her sister in The Ukraine) is that in Odessa (as of Feb 25) they hear explosions and gunfire from their apartment, and have been instructed by the authorities not to leave their homes. (How does one get food under these conditions?) The parents have resolved to remain, the husband is not permitted to leave the country, perhaps because he will be required serve in the defense forces, but the sister and her daughter are considering fleeing to Moldova, where they would be refugees. They want their child to live in a free country, not under Russian oppression.

It's one family, it's a data point.

And the previous uplifting news, followed by this more sober report. Thanks for posting.

--Bruce

[71 dB]

For Florestan

https://twitter.com/AM_Friedman/status/1497351012234977291

Alexandra Friedman
@AM_Friedman
Apparently, thousands of Romanians have been waiting in their personal vehicles to pick up #refugees at one of the NE borders with #Ukraine.
I'm not often elated at news from back home, but this makes my heart swell. #StandWithUkriane #standwithrefugees

The darkness of war allows the good people to shine.  0:)

[71 dB]

The "good" news is that Putin's official justification for invading Ukraine is a pan-Russianist ethnonationalist ideology, and there aren't significant amounts of Russians in Finland. In addition, more realistically, Donetsk and Luhansk have already been in a state of war for eight years, with some 14,000 deaths (mostly civilian), which in some respects made an eventual escalation inevitable; after Nagorno-Karabakh, which was a relative disaster for Russia, it needed to regain the trust of the separatist groups it's been sponsoring. People in Finland should be significantly more worried about future wars or low-intensity conflicts in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, and the potential repercussions these may have.

The fact that Putin has "an official justification" for invading a sovereign country that hasn't attacked or threatened Russia is alarming in itself regardless of what that justification is. I don't know what  conflicts in Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia are you preferring to. Those are Nato countries.