Europe at War

[Mirror Image]

Hopefully, someone will assassinate Putin. Obviously, it'd have to be an inside job, but I honestly don't think anyone within Russia has the gall or intestinal fortitude to actually do it. He has a large number of people around him all the time, which shows how much of a coward he is and knows that the minute "the guard is down" so to speak, he's an open target.

[LKB]

An article l read on Friday stated that 30% of authoritarian rulers are removed from power by their own inner circles.

If that's accurate, then there may well be someone with enough motivation and clout to make something happen, if he can get the needed backing. Perhaps someone in the Russian mafia who is tired of being sanctioned, for instance.

But my money is on a secret agreement with Ukraine.

[Rinaldo]

It still fascinates me that Putin might have made a historic misstep by invading a country led by a guy who has won the Ukrainian version of Dancing with the stars back in 2006. What a time to be alive.

Also, immense props to the people protesting the war in Russia. I've just read an open letter signed by approx. fifty Russian classical musicians that's circulating on social media. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

[Florestan]

immense props to the people protesting the war in Russia. I've just read an open letter signed by approx. fifty Russian classical musicians that's circulating on social media. Hopefully a sign of things to come.

Treportedly 4,000 Russians have been arrested since the protests began.

The danger, though, is that if Putin will face a real danger of being ousted, he might act even more irrationally than he does now.

I agree with MI and LKB, assassination is the best option.

[Scion7]

"Gentlemen ... it's obvious that our various intelligence services cannot effect a regime-change in the Russian Federation - our agents would be detected long before they could reach the hoops of steel surrounding Putin's immediate presence.  However, our team leaders have come to the conclusion that a secret operative - a civilian - just might not be noticed until he was within the radius of a personal HEV with the Russian president ... we think we have identified such a person ... one rage-infected Romanian with just enough bravura to ignore the possibility of 30-rounds/sec Russian Bizon submachine guns ... "

[Karl Henning]

All tyrants, dictators, and authoritarian rulers have one thing in common: the desire to die in their sleep of old age.

Therefore, absent insanity there is absolutely no chance that Putin would employ nukes in any capacity. He will threaten, bluff, possibly initiate some sort of testing and/ or show of force, but an actual attack with thermonuclear weapons would be his death, and he knows it.

He's always gotten his way through bullying. No wonder the Wankmaggot Dotard fawns on him.

[MusicTurner]

Demonstration with 10,000 here in DK, according to the police, in the afternoon. I read a bit of further news: DK delivering 2700 anti-tank weapons and also Stinger to Ukraine, plus increasing defense budgets. Lots of similar news, including the 100 billion Euros rise of the German defense budget, Sweden donating 5000 anti-tank weapons etc.

Increased opposition in public from some Russian oligarks, even mentioning of Boris Nemtsov's views etc.

Apparently oncoming Russian-Ukranian talks at the Belarus border, hopefully without accompanying incidents.

Swift sanctions announced, which may result in a quick collapse.

And of course, the nuclear threats from Russia. Marco Rubio, the US politician with a dubious reputation, who has access to some security briefings, stated in a tweet a couple of days ago, that Putin is considered mentally different from 5 years ago, but that it was not possible for him to say more about this.

My impression is that Western intelligence has been good all the way, which is not a bad thing. It may also have helped Ukraine to a very considerable degree, and still is.

[vandermolen]

I think that the best hope is for increasing opposition towards Putin from within Russia itself - maybe wishful thinking but I hope not.

[Florestan]

"Gentlemen ... it's obvious that our various intelligence services cannot effect a regime-change in the Russian Federation - our agents would be detected long before they could reach the hoops of steel surrounding Putin's immediate presence.  However, our team leaders have come to the conclusion that a secret operative - a civilian - just might not be noticed until he was within the radius of a personal HEV with the Russian president ... we think we have identified such a person ... one rage-infected Romanian with just enough bravura to ignore the possibility of 30-rounds/sec Russian Bizon submachine guns ... "

[T. D.]

And another Putin lackey chimes in:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/hungary-won-t-cancel-russia-backed-nuclear-project-orban-says

Also, I've read some theorising to the effect that Putin is hoping for a military coup or putsch in Ukraine. Seems unlikely to this (ignorant) observer, but it's possible that Russia has previously seeded the Ukraine military with abundant moles, sleeper agents, etc.

[Scion7]

^ the West continues to purchase Russian petrol products - are we "lackeys"?

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

"Gentlemen ... it's obvious that our various intelligence services cannot effect a regime-change in the Russian Federation - our agents would be detected long before they could reach the hoops of steel surrounding Putin's immediate presence.  However, our team leaders have come to the conclusion that a secret operative - a civilian - just might not be noticed until he was within the radius of a personal HEV with the Russian president ... we think we have identified such a person ... one rage-infected Romanian with just enough bravura to ignore the possibility of 30-rounds/sec Russian Bizon submachine guns ... "

Through out the Imperial/Soviet/Republican history, the country never had a genuine democratic system.

P.s. Anonymous, international hacker group, declared war against the Russian govt.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/article258820668.html

[amw]

According to various government sources, Ukrainian and Russian delegations have agreed to meet for peace talks at an unspecified place on the Ukraine/Belarus border. These are expected to start at some point today and perhaps have accounted for the lack of any major military developments over the past 12 hours ish. It helps that the majority of Russian and Ukrainian rank and file soldiers are pretty unwilling to kill one another for various reasons (long historical ties between the two peoples; mostly speaking the same language; most soldiers are young conscripts with no historical memory of Soviet- and pre-Soviet era grievances or even the 2004 coup).

Western powers delivering weapons to Ukraine while trying to discourage peace talks is an unambiguously bad thing: it's a sign that the various EU parties want the war to continue indefinitely until such point as they can find some strategic advantage. Every delivery of missiles and guns to Ukraine (and largely to militia groups rather than the government) will have no effect except to push Russia to switch from its current relatively limited war to the full spectrum asymmetric counterinsurgency tactics that form the cornerstone of modern warfare: advanced weaponry (drone strikes, loitering munitions, etc), massive urban bombardment, destruction rather than capture of infrastructure, and stuff like chemical weapons and cluster bombs whenever it feels it can get away with it. Like, as bad as the situation has been so far, right now it's one where Russia is driving T-72s down highways and bypassing cities in favour of capturing airfields and power plants. Ukraine similarly has a lot of advanced weaponry—its military does not need donated Stingers; it has plenty—and has largely avoided using it. Every delivery of weapons by the West makes peace less likely, and should be condemned.

The best hope for peace is a revolt within the Russian military itself, for soldiers to start deserting or refuse to fight. (A military coup is after all the only likely way to remove Putin from power.) Ukraine has to some extent already been able to take advantage of this by allowing captured prisoners to call home and setting up a hotline. Those are the sort of tactics that will "win" this war. The West by contrast evidently wants to turn Ukraine into Syria.

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

Analysis by the Institute for the Study of War:

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 26
Russian forces' main axes of advance in the last 24 hours focused on Kyiv, northeastern Ukraine, and southern Ukraine. Russian airborne and special forces troops are engaged in urban warfare in northwestern Kyiv, but Russian mechanized forces are not yet in the capital. Russian forces from Crimea have changed their primary axes of advance from a presumed drive toward Odesa to focus on pushing north toward Zaporizhie and the southeastern bend of the Dnipro River and east along the Azov Sea coast toward Mariupol. These advances risk cutting off the large concentrations of Ukrainian forces still defending the former line of contact between unoccupied Ukraine and occupied Donbas. Ukrainian leaders may soon face the painful decision of ordering the withdrawal of those forces and the ceding of more of eastern Ukraine or allowing much of Ukraine's uncommitted conventional combat power to be encircled and destroyed. There are no indications as yet of whether the Ukrainian government is considering this decision point.

Ukrainian resistance remains remarkably effective and Russian operations especially on the Kyiv axis have been poorly coordinated and executed, leading to significant Russian failures on that axis and at Kharkiv. Russian forces remain much larger and more capable than Ukraine's conventional military, however, and Russian advances in southern Ukraine may threaten to unhinge the defense of Kyiv and northeastern Ukraine if they continue unchecked.


https://www.understandingwar.org/

[Karl Henning]

Never forget that as president Donald Trump led an organized campaign to withhold military aid and blackmail the Ukrainians. And that "Republicans let him get away it."

Shame On Those Who Defended Trump's "Perfect Call"

[Todd]

Every delivery of weapons by the West makes peace less likely, and should be condemned.

No, the West is good.  Besides, some of those orders may well flow to US arms manufacturers.  Q1 ends in just over thirty days.

[T. D.]

Some interesting analysis / speculation. Including Russian hopes for a putsch and guesses about what a carved-up Ukraine would look like:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-27/putin-races-against-clock-as-fast-military-advance-frustrated

Though of course much may prove inaccurate or even BS.

[Todd]

The art of the well-timed exit: BP exiting its 19.75% shareholding in Russian oil giant Rosneft

I wonder what Rosneft chairman Gerhard Schröder is thinking right about now.

[springrite]

I for one wouldn't be surprised if someone from the inner circle, so to speak, act to remove or kill him. The opposition inside Russia is very strong, and the sanctions will be hitting everyone hard, but especially those on the inner circle and the rest of the rich and powerful inside Russia.

[MusicTurner]

EU proposing air bridge to Kyiv, if necessary. Implies more risks of confrontation.

The announcement of Kyiv 'being surrounded' has been retracted.

Putin's talk of a-bombs is considered relevant especially for using somewhat smaller nuclear bombs, possibly Hiroshima size. Western governments are requested to work out a range of response strategies by experts here.