Topic: Europe at War

[MusicTurner]

VPs very long, historically orientated speech, obviously not written today and attacking the West and Ukraine, only concluded with a brief acknowledging of LPR and DPR, in a few sentences.

[Que]

VPs very long, historically orientated speech, attacking the West and Ukraine, only concluded with a brief acknowledging of LPR and DPR, in a few sentences.

The recognition opens the way for a request for military assistance by "sovereign" entities, so Putin has now a pretext to move his army into the East of the Ukraine.

[MusicTurner]

VP has now already ordered the 'peacekeeping mission' soldiers for LPR and DPR.

[Que]

The recognition decision answers some questions but others remain. There is a chance Putin may simply recognise the two republics “as they are”. This, after months of apocalyptic scenarios, would probably be privately accepted as a good outcome by Ukraine and the west.

But it seems likely that Putin has much more in mind than simply taking a nibble out of Ukraine’s east and taking formal responsibility for territories he already de facto controlled.

Putin’s final words, that if Kyiv did not stop the violence they would bear responsibility for the “ensuing bloodshed”, were ominous in the extreme. It sounded, quite simply, like a declaration of war.

Putin’s absurd, angry spectacle will be a turning point in his long reign

[Herman]

As usual there have been any number of experts saying Putin would not invade, it was just a game of pressuring the west.

The notion that yesterday's spectacle will be 'a turning point' for Putin's reputation in Russia is just another of these expert pieces, even though we, in the West, have clear examples how this works.

Did Jan 6 make Trump afficionados think differently about Trump? Did 'grab by the pussy' change anyone's mind? No it didn't, because Trumpites live in an information vacuum. Russia in its entirety is an information vacuum and this whole weird revolting spectacle of the Leader berating his security council and giving a snore speech afterwards should be seen with different eyes.

[Que]

As usual there have been any number of experts saying Putin would not invade, it was just a game of pressuring the west.

The notion that yesterday's spectacle will be 'a turning point' for Putin's reputation in Russia is just another of these expert pieces, even though we, in the West, have clear examples how this works.

Did Jan 6 make Trump afficionados think differently about Trump? Did 'grab by the pussy' change anyone's mind? No it didn't, because Trumpites live in an information vacuum. Russia in its entirety is an information vacuum and this whole weird revolting spectacle of the Leader berating his security council and giving a snore speech afterwards should be seen with different eyes.

Agreed. Putin controls the domestic media and the Russian population has been carefully prepped with a suitable narrative.

If Johnson & co. can convince a small majority of the Brits that the EU is their enemy, why wouldn't Putin get away with this?

[Que]

Russian troops crossed the border with Ukraine, so the invasion is a fact.

Interesting "detail": Russia will recognise the independence of the Donetsk and Luhanks regions in their entirety, not just the 1/3 held by separatists.

So the secenario will be to "liberate" the rest of these territories from the Ukraine, that already has been accused of committing "genocide". Naturally, any resistance by the Ukrainian army will considered as an hostile act that has to be countered with the crushing force of the Russian army.

[MusicTurner]

The 'entirety legitimizing' is so far an exaggeration due to Max Seddon's reporting; he has retracted the story's certainness; it is based on an inferior Russian parliament member's expressed opinion (named Kalashnikov, actually ...), and before any exact proposal has been made.

But concerning the various scenarios - the low-key annexation of just LPR/DPR as a relatively easy way out of the conflict, versus a bigger war - Putin's speech yesterday, delegitimizing Ukraine as a Western, evil colony, can be a basis for further invasions.

The West will begin with insignificant sanctions, hoping for the quieter outcome, and reserve sanction force for a bigger invasion. Unless of course, that the big invasion begins very quickly.

[Herman]

As could have been predicted years ago, Europe's dependency on Russian gas was a very bad move.

The minute sanctions kick in, Putin will cut the gas.

[MusicTurner]

The Duma recognition was done without specifying borders. The Duma functioned as a rubber stamp with 100% of votes and a standing ovation.

Scholz has just pointed to a halt of NordStream2. It's surprisingly early, and apparently it's with immediate effect.

[Scion7]

As an aside, a bird I see whenever I (not recently, of course) travel to the Samara oblast msg'd me a couple of days ago that large numbers of Russian troops were passing through the area. The garrison there is virtually empty now.   She didn't try to get too close to the convoys as the security was intense and none-too-friendly.  Although ethnically Russian, she was born/raised in Ukraine - not much enthusiasm for war among her circle of friends - lots of anxiety about what might happen. 

[k a rl h e nn i ng]

Ukraine Isn’t the Only Target of Putin’s Aggression

[Todd]

So after Pooty Poot recognized the two breakaway regions of Ukraine, something no other country did, the US responded by stating it would impose sanctions on the same breakaway regions.  Perhaps there are specialists in international law here who can explain how the US can impose sanctions on specific regions without de facto recognizing them.

Looks like some Louisiana and Texas ports may be in for a busy spring.

[JBS]

So after Pooty Poot recognized the two breakaway regions of Ukraine, something no other country did, the US responded by stating it would impose sanctions on the same breakaway regions.  Perhaps there are specialists in international law here who can explain how the US can impose sanctions on specific regions without de facto recognizing them.

Looks like some Louisiana and Texas ports may be in for a busy spring.

By doing what he actually did: putting sanctions on Americans who do business there.

As sanctions go, it's rsther weak, although we're told there will be more announced later today.

I confess that I think the only course of action that would make Putin back off is precisely the one course of action Biden has ruled out:  US troops in the Ukraine ready to actually fight a war.

[MusicTurner]

As feared, Putin has now declared recognition of the DPR and LPR, including the wider Ukrainian territories they claim, and got his council's allowance for deploying troops for any missions abroad.

EDIT: says that Russian troops won't invade now, but threatens with them.

[Scion7]

I think this is all to create a forward base-of-operations for the invasion of ........
. . . OF . . .
..........................Romania!  Run, Florestan, RUN!

[Todd]

By doing what he actually did: putting sanctions on Americans who do business there.

But the sanctions still explicitly recognize two specific regions that are part of a sovereign nation-state that the US recognizes.   The sanctions now are limited and weak.  What will be informative is whether Biden would still be willing to meet with Putin. 

[Que]

The order bars "new investment, trade and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in" the so-called Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic, located in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said in a statement.

The order also provides authority to impose sanctions on "any person determined to operate in those areas of Ukraine," 

I think advertising this as "sanctions" is a far stretch. These measures are not imposed on the territories as legal entities.
It's basically a trade ban targeting US companies to refrain from doing business with anyone in these rebel held territories.

Purely symbolic and even as such highly insignificant, I would say....

[MusicTurner]

UK sanctions even more insignificant - but all these sanctions were sketched before the events this evening.

It's unlikely that Ukraine can accept Putin's stated demands of a recognition of a Russian Crimea, a de-militarization of Ukraine, and bigger Donbas 'republics'.

[Florestan]

I think this is all to create a forward base-of-operations for the invasion of ........
. . . OF . . .
..........................Romania!  Run, Florestan, RUN!

Oh, yeah, I'm so terrified that I can't sleep anymore.