Europe at War

[Florestan]

Reports (BBC, AP, The Economist) of a 27km-long Russian armored column advancing on Kiev.

This seemingly implies that Russia believes they now dominate Ukr. airspace.

According to military experts, one doesn't necessarily need aircrafts to stop a column of tanks. Anti-tank missiles might be just as effective.

It's fairy obvious that the invasion is a fiasco, albeit a bloody one. After six days Russian did not conquer any important city, let alone Kiev. The unexpected yet heroic Ukrainian resistance is admirable.

[Rinaldo]

afraid of COVID? Maybe he has an underlying condition?

It's been speculated he's mysophobic AND didn't get a covid shot.

[Florestan]

It would be nice if his control of popular opinion could be broken and Russia could become a messy, chaotic democracy like Ukraine.

Russia will never be a functional democracy, not even a messy and chaotic one. The culture of unconditional obedience to the ruler and the scarcity of any personal and civic intiative is deeply ingrained in the Russian society and amply documented in their own literature. The liberals have always been a tiny minority and the strongest opposition to autocracy, albeit an ineffective one, came from anarchists and socialists and took mostly the form of assassinations, The Bolshevik coup only made the matters worse and resulted in even more severe authoritarianism.

The best hope for Russia and the world is a moderately authoritarian regime with a clearly defined and widely accepted mechanism of power change --- ie, the restoration of the Tsars. 

[Christabel]

Well said, and it's exactly what my physician friend from Poland said;  he lived under Soviet domination for the first 40 years of his life.  He said about the Russian people,"they can't help it - that's how they are".

Lest anybody becomes misty-eyed and dreamy about Marxism and Communism.....not like the numb-nuts who appeared before HUAC!!  Body bags were being filled outside America and these dim-wits frolicked with communism in the arts.  You couldn't make it up!!  And then they bawled because their arses were hauled before the American people.  Armchair revolutionaries.

[Florestan]

Russian peacekeeping and brotherhood with Ukrainians in action:

[Christabel]

Deeply, deeply distressing.

[Florestan]

Russian conductor Valery Gergiev loses manager and bookings over refusal to denounce Ukraine invasion

Fom the article:

Russian conductor Valery Gergiev has been dropped by his management and from upcoming performances in Europe and the US over his failure to denounce Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The friend and long-time supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far issued no statement on the war.

Gergiev had been represented by Munich-based manager Marcus Felsner since December 2020. However, in a statement yesterday, Felsner said: "In the light of the criminal war waged by the Russian regime against the democratic and independent nation of Ukraine, and against the European open society as a whole, it has become impossible for us, and clearly unwelcome, to defend the interests of Maestro Gergiev".

Felsner called Gergiev "the greatest conductor alive and an extraordinary human being with a profound sense of decency" and said that dropping him as a client was "the saddest day of my professional life". Nonetheless, he said that he had no choice because Gergiev "will not, or cannot, publicly end his long-expressed support for a regime that has come to commit such crimes".

Gergiev, a long-standing personal friend of Putin and staunch defender of his criminal actions, an extraordinary human being with a profound sense of decency? My a$$. He's a scumbag. Ill never ever again listen to his recordings --- not that I have many anyway.

[The new erato]

Netrebko have been sent home from a concert in Denmark because of her ties to the Russian establishment.

[Florestan]

The Romanian government shut down several Russian propaganda websites and forbid Romanian cable TV operators to provide Russia Today, yet Russian propaganda goes on unabashed, even intensified, on social media. Russian propagandists and their Romanian useful idiots claim (1) that Ukraine should not be supported because they occupy centuries-old Romanian territories and (2) that Romanians, as Orthodox Christians, should be embracing their Russian brothers in faith.

I'll start with (2). All the world can see right now how Christianly Russians behave in Ukraine and what Orthodox brotherhood actually means for Russians: bringing in 10,000 Muslim fanatics to slaughter Orthodox Ukrainians.

As for (1), while it's technically true that present-day Ukraine contains ancient Romanian territories, it's not Uklrainians who took them from us, it's the Russians. Secondly, what imbecile can believe that if Russians wipe Ukraine off the map they will return said territories to Romania? Thirdly, any sane, rational Romanian should prefer having as neighbour an independent and territorially whole Ukraine (which in her whole history after 1991 never posed the slightest threat to us, not even when ruled by pro-Muscovites) to having as neighbour Russia, which in her whole history proved to be an implacable enemy of Romania.

Only imbeciles can fall to such propaganda and indeed polls show that people who trust Russia more than EU or NATO are mostly young, unemployed and uneducated. The good news is they are a minority.

[Todd]

If you'd asked a couple a weeks ago when Germany would be ready to take the lead in a common EU defence - because that's what it takes - I would have said probably another decade. Now they are ready and have raised their defence budget with 100 bln euros...

The German policy changes may end up benefitting Russia.  I am not convinced that all European nations will be keen on a remilitarized Germany.  This in itself brings in to doubt the possibility of a common EU defense, with or without the UK. 

As the US shifts its focus to Asia, the relevance of NATO declines.  Without US direction, NATO effectiveness would then rely on Turkey due to military size and a remilitarized Germany.  That does not bode well for the organization, and if no one learns of the strategic value of a neutralized Ukraine after the current mess, then NATO would be worse than worthless, it would become destabilizing.

I would hope European leaders pursue energy diversification, a lesson the US learned in the 70s, and nuclear power, still very much a viable option in some countries, is of course part of the mix, despite naysayers.

[Florestan]

nuclear power, still very much a viable option in some countries, is of course part of the mix, despite naysayers.

It's not "part of the mix", it's the only viable option.

[Florestan]

Statement of ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC, on the Situation in Ukraine: "I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation."

Last Friday, I expressed my increasing concern, echoing those of world leaders and citizens of the world alike, over the events unfolding in Ukraine.

Today, I wish to announce that I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation into the Situation in Ukraine, as rapidly as possible.

Ukraine is not a State Party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court ("ICC" or the "Court"), so cannot itself refer the situation to my Office. But it has twice exercised its prerogatives to legally accept the Court's jurisdiction over alleged crimes under the Rome Statute occurring on its territory, should the Court choose to exercise it. The first declaration lodged by the Government of Ukraine accepted ICC jurisdiction with respect to alleged crimes committed on Ukrainian territory from 21 November 2013 to 22 February 2014. The second declaration extended this time period on an open-ended basis to encompass ongoing alleged crimes committed throughout the territory of Ukraine from 20 February 2014 onwards.

I have reviewed the Office's conclusions arising from the preliminary examination of the Situation in Ukraine, and have confirmed that there is a reasonable basis to proceed with opening an investigation. In particular, I am satisfied that there is a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine in relation to the events already assessed during the preliminary examination by the Office. Given the expansion of the conflict in recent days, it is my intention that this investigation will also encompass any new alleged crimes falling within the jurisdiction of my Office that are committed by any party to the conflict on any part of the territory of Ukraine.

I have already tasked my team to explore all evidence preservation opportunities. The next step is to proceed with the process of seeking and obtaining authorisation from the Pre-Trial Chamber of the Court to open an investigation. An alternative route set out in the Statute that could further expedite matters would be for an ICC State Party to refer the situation to my Office, which would allow us to actively and immediately proceed with the Office's independent and objective investigations.

I will also be asking for the support of all States Parties and the international community as a whole as my Office sets about its investigations.  I will be calling for additional budgetary support, for voluntary contributions to support all our situations, and for the loan of gratis personnel. The importance and urgency of our mission is too serious to be held hostage to lack of means.

I will continue to closely follow developments on the ground in Ukraine, and again call for restraint and strict adherence to the applicable rules of international humanitarian law.

If anyone has information relevant to the Situation, this can be submitted to my Office via: otp.informationdesk@icc-cpi.int.

[Todd]

It's not "part of the mix", it's the only viable option.

The mix is the only option - nuclear, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, etc.  German authorities proclaimed German electricity will be from sustainable sources by 2035.  Ambitious, but maybe.  That shifts geopolitics a bit if it comes to pass.

Statement of ICC Prosecutor, Karim A.A. Khan QC, on the Situation in Ukraine: "I have decided to proceed with opening an investigation."

I guess this is a chance for the ICC to show that it does not go after only Africans.

[Florestan]

The mix is the only option - nuclear, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, etc.

Wind, solar, tidal, geothermal are certainly useful and welcome but even you add them all up, you can't come even close to nuclear in terms of efficiency and total power generated.

I guess this is a chance for the ICC to show that it does not go after only Africans.

One can only hope.

[Todd]

Wind, solar, tidal, geothermal are certainly useful and welcome but even you add them all up, you can't come even close to nuclear in terms of efficiency and total power generated.

Not true.  When the most reliable form of renewable energy is included - hydroelectric dams - then renewables currently generate well over twice the output of nuclear energy.  Non-hydroelectric renewable energy output exceeds nuclear output now.  Of course, nuclear energy and renewables combined generate less than a fifth of total global energy output, so those figures need to be put in perspective.  The mix is the answer.

[Florestan]

The mix is the answer.

Okay, but excluding the nuclear from the mix, as Germany did, is the top of foolishness.

[Todd]

Okay, but excluding the nuclear from the mix, as Germany did, is the top of foolishness.

It's absolutely nuts.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

What was going on in their heads nobody can know, but what conversation are you talking about? From the video footage it can be seen that Shoigu lowered his head and said "Sir, yes, Sir!" or something like that and that was all. 

I was surprised to see that they took video of it.  Haven't seen it myself.

PD

[JBS]

Stalin was from a non-Slavic ethnic minority. Admittedly, Georgians were a bit less "minority" than Tuva in the Soviet Union, but still.

Are you old enough to remember the days when Kremlinologists relied on who was standing next to whom on May Day reviewing stands for predictions?
It hasn't really gotten much better.

[drogulus]

     I don't think NATO will recede from significance to Europeans, or that German leadership will be unwelcome. Risk is relative, and for Russia to be less of a threat than a well integrated democratic Germany a great deal would have to change first. From the US perspective both the Atlantic and Pacific side of the alliance system should be secure as can be. There's no point in absolute binary thinking about this. The significance of Taiwan, S. Korea, and Japan doesn't go down because Europe goes up, or vice versa.

     Alliances that protect member states are less provocative than weak states on the border of an aggressor state. The absence of NATO is more dangerous than the presence. Putin disagrees, as do anti-anti-Putinists. What do Russians think? As far as I can tell, the majority agree with me. Ukraine doesn't threaten them. They live with NATO states on the border just fine.