Europe at War

[Florestan]

The sanctions now are limited and weak. 

You kidding? All those Donbas corporations about to be listed on NYSE. All those big money the US investors were eagerly waiting to pour on Donbas. It's an economic catastrophe of epic proportions for both Donbas and Russia.

[Florestan]

I confess that I think the only course of action that would make Putin back off is precisely the one course of action Biden has ruled out:  US troops in the Ukraine ready to actually fight a war.

Are you really of the opinion that Ukraine's territorial integrity is of such a paramount importance to the US, or the world at large, that it's worth risking WWIII in order to preserve it?

[JBS]

Are you really of the opinion that Ukraine's territorial integrity is of such a paramount importance to the US, or the world at large, that it's worth risking WWIII in order to preserve it?

The principle of territorial integrity is of paramount importance. Putin needs to be slapped down hard now because he wasn't slapped down earlier.

[Florestan]

The principle of territorial integrity is of paramount importance.

It sure is. Tell that to Serbia.

Putin needs to be slapped down hard now because he wasn't slapped down earlier.

Well, I've got news for you: he won't be slapped, either hard or soft. He'll annex Donbas (by way of referenda, of course) and the rest of the world will grudgingly acquiesce, just as in the case of Crimea. I repeat: nobody in the West is willing to risk war with Russia over two regions in Eastern Ukraine which are inhabited mostly by Russians anyway --- and thank God for that. Incidentally, the existence of a sizeable Russian minority in the Republic of Moldavia is precisely the reason why I will vote against union with Romania in the unlikely event that a referendum will be held on the issue. Bringing into Romania all those Russians and thus giving Putin a pretext to interfere in our politics would be sheer madness, if not plain treason. Those who agitate the idea of reunification are irresponsible lunatics.

I'm an intractable political Russophobe but honestly I fail to see what is so unprecedented in a great power's attempt to expand / rebuild its sphere of influence? Those other great powers which are without sin in this respect, let them cast the first stone.

[Todd]

Are you really of the opinion that Ukraine's territorial integrity is of such a paramount importance to the US, or the world at large, that it's worth risking WWIII in order to preserve it?

WWIII will not occur as a result of Putin's misbehavior. 

The principle of territorial integrity is of paramount importance. Putin needs to be slapped down hard now because he wasn't slapped down earlier.

Since Putin faced no real consequences in 2008 or 2014, it seems quite unlikely that he will face anything especially damaging now.  Sanctions, cyberwarfare, and regional destabilization are the policy responses available.  Unless one counts stern condemnation at the UN.  Or maybe Putin can be tried as a war criminal, as one op-ed in the Graun suggested.

[JBS]

WWIII will not occur as a result of Putin's misbehavior. 



Since Putin faced no real consequences in 2008 or 2014, it seems quite unlikely that he will face anything especially damaging now.  Sanctions, cyberwarfare, and regional destabilization are the policy responses available.  Unless one counts stern condemnation at the UN.  Or maybe Putin can be tried as a war criminal, as one op-ed in the Graun suggested.

In fact I suspect you are right on all counts.
Especially about the UN, where the Presidency of the Security Counsel is held at the moment by...Russia.

[JBS]

It sure is. Tell that to Serbia.

Well, I've got news for you: he won't be slapped, either hard or soft. He'll annex Donbas (by way of referenda, of course) and the rest of the world will grudgingly acquiesce, just as in the case of Crimea. I repeat: nobody in the West is willing to risk war with Russia over two regions in Eastern Ukraine which are inhabited mostly by Russians anyway --- and thank God for that. Incidentally, the existence of a sizeable Russian minority in the Republic of Moldavia is precisely the reason why I will vote against union with Romania in the unlikely event that a referendum will be held on the issue. Bringing into Romania all those Russians and thus giving Putin a pretext to interfere in our politics would be sheer madness, if not plain treason. Those who agitate the idea of reunification are irresponsible lunatics.

I'm an intractable political Russophobe but honestly I fail to see what is so unprecedented in a great power's attempt to expand / rebuild its sphere of influence? Those other great powers which are without sin in this respect, let them cast the first stone.

Your predictions are probably correct especially if Putin confines himself to those two regions (only he may well not). But now the pattern is set: don't be greedy but take consecutive small bites so you'll get it all in the end.

Robbery enforced by superior military power is of course precedented (see f.i US Army and Mexico/Native Americans)  but that does not mean it's a good thing.

[drogulus]

     Whatever one thinks about the status of international conceptions of justice, it's largely a matter of norms that are enforced and not merely declared. Putin must be stopped where possible because more war will come if he isn't. This is not because an abstract justice claim requires it, but because of the real consequences of determining that no concrete life and death claims matter for people that, for now, are imagined as far away.

[Que]

Time pressure:

Harsh conditions mean Russian troops near Ukraine will need to be moved soon.

Analysis: advance forces' battle readiness will quickly degrade, giving Putin only days to choose invasion or retreat

[Scion7]

Florestan is essentially right. (choke, gag!) 
At least until the other members of the Russian regime tire of Putin's antics and financial-suicide from year after year of these sanctions, and he 'dies of natural causes' or some other method of removal.  But I doubt they ever pull out of the Donbas, and will use the principle of self-determination as grounds.  If the map of the cadaver of the USSR had been cut up correctly, perhaps a lot of this would never have happened in the first place.  And every year that goes by solidifies the Russian position.
Anyway, combat between NATO and the RF is off the table.

[Florestan]

If the map of the cadaver of the USSR had been cut up correctly, perhaps a lot of this would never have happened in the first place. 

That map was incorrectly drawn right from the beginning of the USSR. All the current mess is the direct consequence of Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev playing puzzle with whole regions and countries.

[MusicTurner]

Terrible strain on the Ukrainian population. The 3 mio, often poor Ukrainians in Russia are recommended to go home, there's a partial state of emergency, and now US intelligence has informed Zelensky that a big invasion is expected imminently, including at Kharkiv.

Putin's weird words about him providing a 'pre-communist Ukraine' are probably related to his crazy lecture on Ukrainian history, and according to which Ukraine should be only a half or less of its current area. Maps of this have been presented on major Russian television channels in recent days.

Went to a demonstration by the Russian embassy this afternoon.

[milk]

It sure is. Tell that to Serbia.

Well, I've got news for you: he won't be slapped, either hard or soft. He'll annex Donbas (by way of referenda, of course) and the rest of the world will grudgingly acquiesce, just as in the case of Crimea. I repeat: nobody in the West is willing to risk war with Russia over two regions in Eastern Ukraine which are inhabited mostly by Russians anyway --- and thank God for that. Incidentally, the existence of a sizeable Russian minority in the Republic of Moldavia is precisely the reason why I will vote against union with Romania in the unlikely event that a referendum will be held on the issue. Bringing into Romania all those Russians and thus giving Putin a pretext to interfere in our politics would be sheer madness, if not plain treason. Those who agitate the idea of reunification are irresponsible lunatics.

I'm an intractable political Russophobe but honestly I fail to see what is so unprecedented in a great power's attempt to expand / rebuild its sphere of influence? Those other great powers which are without sin in this respect, let them cast the first stone.

what's the likelihood of such a referendum passing?

[MusicTurner]

A lot of intel suggesting that the invasion is beginning now.

Several sources foretold it, and an ensuing bloodbath, weeks ago, partly based on wargames tried by Western intelligence in November. Russia would 'win' the war. Strangely, back in December, even the ~rogue Russian politician Zhirinovsky predicted 'historical events' around the 22nd of February.

The amount of information is probably going to be less coherent quite soon.

[Spotted Horses]

From what I am reading, it seems like prognostications that this would be a limited action in which Russia occupies separatist provinces which are already in open rebellion against the central government of the Ukraine were wrong. It seems like a large scale invasion of the Ukraine has begun.

[Scion7]

Kyiv is being rocketed at this time (command & control, gov't offices).  Reports of casualties.   

[Scion7]

Missile attacks!  Kyiv Airport has been hit, command & control facilities, gov't offices - hundreds of casualties reported. 

[Scion7]

Russian troops landed in Odessa.  On the move.
Pray this ends IMMEDIATELY.  Or someone in the RF regime takes Putin out in the next few hours to stop this madness.

[Scion7]

Correction. Artillery strikes on Kharkiv.

[Scion7]

CNN reporting that Ukraine gov't has stated troops of both Belarus and Russia attacking on the northern border outposts.  Still photos of cruise missile attacks.