Europe at War

[Todd]

it's the guarantee of non-pursuit, by anyone, for anything, that might sway his mind (but probably won't).

Who is "anyone"?

with the internationally-agreed and UN-resolution-backed offer of legitimate dollars in large amounts and a guarantee of no future extradition

What are "legitimate dollars"?

What happened when Yeltsin made a hash of it? Putin, who no one had ever heard of, was appointed Prime Minister, within two months Yeltsin resigns, Putin is appointed President, his first act is to close all corruption investigations of Yeltsin, the second Chechen war, the election is moved up so no one has time to campaign, Putin is elected president. Yeltsin lives happily ever after, until his alcoholism catches up with him. If the oligarchs and the military decide Putin has outlived his usefulness I suspect a similar scenario. Actually the latest revision of the Russian constitution already includes provisions which prevent Putin from being held legally responsible for anything that happened when he was in office. Maybe Putin will actually get to ride in his super-Yacht.

This appears to be the most plausible non-treaty/international agreement outcome. 

When (if) Russian troops pull out of Ukraine.

Whereas the withdrawal of Russian forces from all of Ukraine seems very unlikely.

Even though Putin is not really winning, he holds all the cards. The economic warfare is aimed at balacing this.

But with all manner of leaders watching, and long-standing grievances against US sanctions being held by even European powers, we are witnessing both the apogee of sanctions as a form of warfare and the beginning of the end of so much use of sanctions. 



U.S. rejects Poland's offer to give it Russian-made fighter jets for Ukraine

This perfectly illustrates why the US should not continually expand military treaty obligations. 

[drogulus]

     Oohh, ooh, I see a Uke Flanker taking off from a Romanian airfield escorted by a Romanian Fishbed. That's most excellent.

     https://www.youtube.com/v/kNZxIIPLfWE

     There are problems with the NATO strategy that will continue to plague it going forward. The US is far less vulnerable than Germany to energy blackmail.

     So, why not give up and obsolete NATO for real? My guess is NATO countries don't think in terms of ideals and absolutes, but instead of better and worse outcomes. So far I see nothing mysterious in the decisions being made.

[Pohjolas Daughter]

This story was quite shocking but a ray of light came out of it.  A young father who is a restaurateur in Ukraine was wondering why he hadn't heard from his dad in Russia who eventually contacted him.  His father would not believe what was happening in Ukraine due to what he was hearing over the Russian news media.  But he came up with an idea to help spread the real news:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/09/russia-propaganda-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-newday-vpx.cnn

PD

[Archaic Torso of Apollo]

Do you and/or your Belorussian friend have any thoughts about what should and can be done to help Ukraine and the area in general?  I'd be interested to hear them.

Not really. The people I know go to demonstrations, but that seems to be about all at the moment. Mainly they are afraid of any escalation and want a quick end to this.

[drogulus]

     Belorussians in Ukraine have formed a unit to fight the Russians. I suppose they are mostly refugees.

[Spotted Horses]

Latest distant family update. My wife's brothers's, wife's sister and niece have fled their home in Odessa, traveling to Moldova, and on to Finland where my wife's brother lives as a permanent resident, although he is a citizen of Russia. My wife's brother's wife's sister's husband, also in Odessa, is not permitted to leave, presumably because he must remain to participate in the defense of Ukraine.

My wife's mother, who also lives in Finland as a permanent resident and is supported by Finland's social welfare system, is a Putin true believer. She gets no information except for what supplied by the Putin-controlled media. She insists there is no war, Russia has simply intervened the eastern provinces to protect Russians who are being slaughtered en masse by Fascists in Ukraine, has no sympathy for refugees fleeing Ukraine because "it's their own fault."

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Latest distant family update. My wife's brothers's, wife's sister and niece have fled their home in Odessa, traveling to Moldova, and on to Finland where my wife's brother lives as a permanent resident, although he is a citizen of Russia. My wife's brother's wife's sister's husband, also in Odessa, is not permitted to leave, presumably because he must remain to participate in the defense of Ukraine.

My wife's mother, who also lives in Finland as a permanent resident and is supported by Finland's social welfare system, is a Putin true believer. She gets no information except for what supplied by the Putin-controlled media. She insists there is no war, Russia has simply intervened the eastern provinces to protect Russians who are being slaughtered en masse by Fascists in Ukraine, has no sympathy for refugees fleeing Ukraine because "it's their own fault."

Wow!  I'm very sorry to hear that your relatives are going through all of this, but glad that they made it out safely.  Shocked to hear though that your MIL has been thinking that way though.  Doesn't she ever listen to and/or watch any Finnish news or other news besides Russian?  Or is it a language-barrier problem?  I imagine that she speaks with her son?  Or is it a health-related issue?

And I pray that your male relative manages to remain safe whilst the war is going on and he can be reunited with the rest of his family.

PD

[Florestan]

     Oohh, ooh, I see a Uke Flanker taking off from a Romanian airfield escorted by a Romanian Fishbed. That's most excellent.

     https://www.youtube.com/v/kNZxIIPLfWE
     

Actually that's the plane that landed in Romania in the first day of the war and was returned to Ukraine a week ago if I'm not mistaken. The pilot is still under military investigation, suspected of actually being a Russian provocateur spy. 

[Spotted Horses]

Wow!  I'm very sorry to hear that your relatives are going through all of this, but glad that they made it out safely.  Shocked to hear though that your MIL has been thinking that way though.  Doesn't she ever listen to and/or watch any Finnish news or other news besides Russian?  Or is it a language-barrier problem?  I imagine that she speaks with her son?  Or is it a health-related issue?

And I pray that your male relative manages to remain safe whilst the war is going on and he can be reunited with the rest of his family.

PD

Thanks for your good thoughts. My MIL is like a Trump true believer, and thinks that any criticism of Putin is "fake news." She doesn't notice the cognitive dissonance, such as the fact that if she was still in Russia she would be facing near starvation, but in Finland, where her husband has worked as a scientist, she lives a comfortable retirement at state expense. I have an aunt like this, who is regularly suspended from facebook for posting Q-anon material, statements that Hillary Clinton runs a pedophile ring for fellow Democrats, etc.

Anyway, amid the media reports, I thought it would be of interest to contribute a data point from lived experience. Fortunately they are in Odessa, which has not been a focus of Russian military activity, yet.

[drogulus]

Actually that's the plane that landed in Romania in the first day of the war and was returned to Ukraine a week ago if I'm not mistaken. The pilot is still under military investigation, suspected of actually being a Russian provocateur spy. 

     BTW, I think Romania needs new jets.

     

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

Retired US and European military leaders advocate for advanced air defenses for Ukraine as a substitute for no-fly zone.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-09-22/h_4fa73e25714b2f8f28e68cc91b677598

[71 dB]

My wife's mother, who also lives in Finland as a permanent resident and is supported by Finland's social welfare system, is a Putin true believer. She gets no information except for what supplied by the Putin-controlled media. She insists there is no war, Russia has simply intervened the eastern provinces to protect Russians who are being slaughtered en masse by Fascists in Ukraine, has no sympathy for refugees fleeing Ukraine because "it's their own fault."

I find it strange that your wife's mother is only exposed to Putin-controlled media. How? I don't even know how she does it while living in Finland. Finnish broadcasting company YLE has even Russian News on TV, and it is not pro-Putin propaganda, but pretty much the same news that YLE broadcasts in Finnish. I know this, because the news have Finnish subtitles. I believe there's 58.000 Russians living in Finland and that's why YLE has dedicated news for them.

[drogulus]

Retired US and European military leaders advocate for advanced air defenses for Ukraine as a substitute for no-fly zone.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-09-22/h_4fa73e25714b2f8f28e68cc91b677598

     I would use retired military honchos to float trial balloons.

     If Russia can't conquer Ukraine for all the evident reasons, it might be time to think about the Russian territory left weakly defended by the troop movements Russia used to create the invasion force. To be precise, I'm thinking about the formerly Chinese city now known as Vladivostok. The region used to be called Outer Manchuria. Russian imperialists took it around 1860.

[vandermolen]

Retired US and European military leaders advocate for advanced air defenses for Ukraine as a substitute for no-fly zone.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-09-22/h_4fa73e25714b2f8f28e68cc91b677598

Sounds sensible to me. It gets worse and worse with attack on maternity hospital in Mariupol (where my daughter worked with MSF).

[Mandryka]

Retired US and European military leaders advocate for advanced air defenses for Ukraine as a substitute for no-fly zone.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-09-22/h_4fa73e25714b2f8f28e68cc91b677598

Does it survive the reality check?

https://www.youtube.com/v/Hob1nbP_UKM

[Pohjolas Daughter]

Thanks for your good thoughts. My MIL is like a Trump true believer, and thinks that any criticism of Putin is "fake news." She doesn't notice the cognitive dissonance, such as the fact that if she was still in Russia she would be facing near starvation, but in Finland, where her husband has worked as a scientist, she lives a comfortable retirement at state expense. I have an aunt like this, who is regularly suspended from facebook for posting Q-anon material, statements that Hillary Clinton runs a pedophile ring for fellow Democrats, etc.

Anyway, amid the media reports, I thought it would be of interest to contribute a data point from lived experience. Fortunately they are in Odessa, which has not been a focus of Russian military activity, yet.

Well, it will be interesting to hear how she reacts to what her kids/relatives have to say once they meet up (if they haven't already).  One can only hope.

I feel for countries like Romania, Poland and Moldova who are doing their best to help all of the refugees coming through.  I did read of one family who were trying to get into England via Calais.  From what I recall, the husband is British and they have a home in the UK but were stuck trying to get a Visa for his wife....and the closest (and I believe only) place that they can get help from is located in Paris.

PD

PD

[Florestan]

How Europe's addiction to Russian gas fuelled the Ukraine crisis

Years of naivety, complacency and fuel dependency have left the EU strategically weak

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

Does it survive the reality check?

https://www.youtube.com/v/Hob1nbP_UKM

I assume these people, with differential nationalities and party affiliations, are highly knowledgeable about technical matters in military conflicts. They maybe right. Secondly, the recommendation is a somewhat middle of the road option between the status quo and no-fly zone. Even if it failed to exert a strong impact, its political/fiscal cost is smaller than the cost of the status quo.


In the mean time, the below is Zelensky's comment on the impasse between Poland and the USA over Migs.

"Listen, we have a war! We do not have time for all these signals," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a recent address. "This is not ping pong! It's about human lives! We ask once again: Solve it faster. Do not shift the responsibility, send us planes."

https://www.president.gov.ua/news/ukrayinci-vistoyali-j-nadihnuli-ves-svit-svoyeyu-rishuchisty-73457

[MusicTurner]

There are reports, as yet unverified, that Russia will cut off access to all foreign internet, keeping only Russian websites and servers, within maybe a week, perhaps around March 11th-12th.

They already did a general, countrywide test of that concept in April 2019.

Forgot to mention that if so, some suggest that comprehensive Russian cyber attacks might take place elsewhere, when they have isolated themselves into, what would also be a 'cyber fortress', besides 'just' hindering information from the outside world. Maybe including sabotage of cables etc.

[drogulus]

     NATO does not have to engage with the Russian SAMNet. It doesn't have to fly over well defended territory in order to shoot down planes attacking Ukraine. The goal would be to render Russian air power even more ineffective than it presently is, and make it nearly impossible for Russian attackers to operate over most of Ukrainian territory.