Europe at War

[Florestan]

Blinken say yes. 

So said Kamala Harris, in both Warsaw and Bucharest.

Do you imply that both the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS are liars and should be trusted no more than Putin or Lavrov?

[MusicTurner]

    (...) closed from the east? (...)

China is apparently reducing its modest support for Russia in this conflict; it can't do without the West. Same with Kazakhstan, who's now quietly supporting Ukraine more. Which makes one think - in case of an almost total closure of trade between the West and Russia - China will have to revise parts of their new Silk Road planning, and try to decipher oncoming tendencies. The southern links, that include Kazakhstan, become even more important for corridors to the West.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/why-china-is-building-a-new-silk-road/

[Karl Henning]

So said Kamala Harris, in both Warsaw and Bucharest.

Do you imply that both the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS are liars and should be trusted no more than Putin or Lavrov?

Interesting conundrum: what does a pot-stirring troll "imply?"

[Todd]

So said Kamala Harris, in both Warsaw and Bucharest.

Do you imply that both the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS are liars and should be trusted no more than Putin or Lavrov?

One can trust Harris and Blinken more than Putin and Lavrov.

[Herman]

People are saying that if Russia can't win a quick victory, they will simply destroy cities, the way they destroyed Grozny (Chechnya). First, Kiev is something like 8-10 times larger than Grozny. I don't know if it's even possible to "scale up" like that.

Second, cities like Kiev and Odessa have an iconic status in Russian culture. Kiev in particular is a sacred city to Slavic Orthodox people; it's "the Mother of Rus Cities." It's like Rome is for Catholics. Bombarding these cities into smithereens would have an immeasurable traumatic impact on huge numbers of people.

Destroying Kiev was not in Pute's original plan, but if he needs to choose between his own historical stature and that of Kiev, he'll opt for the former.

Remember, he controls the (Russian) media. People hardly know what's going on. He'll just blame the Ukrainians.

[MusicTurner]

(...)
In Russia, the FSB officers responsible for evaluating the situation in Ukraine, in relation to the invasion plans, have apparently been placed under house arrests. Their work was unsatisfying, to say the least.

(...)

Some alleged details ... traitors in the FSB leaking info to Western sources ?? Ransacking of 20 FSB offices, by the Presidential Security Organization ...

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1502345407350730755

[drogulus]

     Russian planes just attacked a Belorussian village from the Ukraine side.  We are all fooled by this, yes?

     My brain has not yet been Tulsified, so I need more evidence. Tell me more about the labs! I go all wobbly about NATO biowarfare.

     

[MusicTurner]

     Russian planes just attacked a Belorussian village from the Ukraine side.  We are all fooled by this, yes?
(...)

   

With the Russians needing more strength, Ukrainian authorities are now warning that Belarus might attack Ukraine very soon as well.

It was only a couple of days ago, that Ukraine said that the direct Belarus threat had diminished into nearly nothing, and that there was less to worry about than previously.

[amw]

Putin has already destroyed or neutralized whatever pro-Russian forces still existed in Ukraine. Such sentiment used to be widespread. Back around 2009 I saw polls indicating that the most popular politician in Ukraine was ... Putin! This was probably more an expression of frustration with their own leaders at the time, but still, things were different. Now, Putin is turning previously moderate Central Ukrainians into Galician nationalists.

I've noticed this too. Of course I assume popularity in Ukraine is orthogonal to his goals; he simply wants a Donetsk/Luhansk-based client state that can act as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO/EU, and doesn't care if it has any political legitimacy with its own citizens. But the extent to which he's torpedoed not only his own personal popularity but also a good deal of the historical attachment between eastern Ukrainians and Russia—and, it must be said, that's not just due to this higher-intensity phase of the war; this has been ongoing since 2014—is pretty remarkable and may be what ends up defeating Russia in the end. Nonviolent civilian resistance has already forced Russian units to withdraw from various towns and cities.

(People I've spoken to who are familiar with the situation in Donetsk claim that this is partly because, in 2014, they fully expected Russian tanks to roll across the border and end the conflict any day soon, and grew disillusioned over time when this never happened; partly because, in the intervening eight years, separatist leaders who supported the independence of the DPR/LPR, or a federalist solution within Ukraine, or even simply a peaceful resolution of hostilities, experienced a suspiciously high rate of assassination and mysterious accident, invariably being replaced by Putin loyalists. There's also the matter of the widespread hatred for Poroshenko, who was viewed as a neo-fascist dictator just a step down from the Azov Battalion, whereas Zelensky was not only viewed much more positively—and as a hopeful candidate for potential rapprochement between Donetsk/Luhansk and the rest of Ukraine—but won a significant majority of the vote in non-separatist areas of the two oblasts. i.e., without the threat of a Poroshenko hanging over people's heads, Putin started to look much less appealing.)

I haven't been following the war news for the last few days, largely because things have turned into absolutely brutal urban warfare—as I thought they would without a quick ceasefire—and I honestly just don't have the stomach to look at dead bodies and such.

[Que]

he simply wants a Donetsk/Luhansk-based client state that can act as a buffer zone between Russia and NATO/EU

Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.

[Que]

     Russian planes just attacked a Belorussian village from the Ukraine side.  We are all fooled by this, yes?

     My brain has not yet been Tulsified, so I need more evidence. Tell me more about the labs! I go all wobbly about NATO biowarfare.

I don't understand why the Russians still bother to create all these pretexts, unless it is just for domestic consumption...

[Florestan]

Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.

Of course. Had he simply wanted Donetsk and Lugansk he'd have sent the tanks only there --- actually, that's what I expected him to do, and I think I'm not alone in that.

[Que]

Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.

Of course. Had he simply wanted Donetsk and Lugansk he'd have sent the tanks only there --- actually, that's what I expected him to do, and I think I'm not alone in that.

Surprise, surprise. ...


'pseudo referendum' in Kherson

Russian forces are reportedly planning to conduct a "pseudo referendum" in Kherson, the Ukrainian city under Russian occupation.

The deputy head of the local council in Kherson told Reuters that it wants to create a new breakaway republic.

[relm1]

I'm no kind of military expert, but I've been thinking about a few things.

People are saying that if Russia can't win a quick victory, they will simply destroy cities, the way they destroyed Grozny (Chechnya). First, Kiev is something like 8-10 times larger than Grozny. I don't know if it's even possible to "scale up" like that.

Second, cities like Kiev and Odessa have an iconic status in Russian culture. Kiev in particular is a sacred city to Slavic Orthodox people; it's "the Mother of Rus Cities." It's like Rome is for Catholics. Bombarding these cities into smithereens would have an immeasurable traumatic impact on huge numbers of people.

Napoleon said that in war "the moral is to the physical as ten is to one." I'm getting reports (which I can't confirm, granted) that a lot of the Russian soldiers are confused and dismayed about being put in this position. They were lied to, or kept in the dark until the crucial moment. Assuming this is true, how long can the situation last?

Meanwhile (based on other unconfirmed reports I'm getting) Putin has already destroyed or neutralized whatever pro-Russian forces still existed in Ukraine. Such sentiment used to be widespread. Back around 2009 I saw polls indicating that the most popular politician in Ukraine was ... Putin! This was probably more an expression of frustration with their own leaders at the time, but still, things were different. Now, Putin is turning previously moderate Central Ukrainians into Galician nationalists.

My thinking is putin could also aim to demoralize Ukrainians to put Russia in a more favorable negotiating position.  As the war drags on, the pressure on both sides gets worse and worse plus if they actually want to control Kiev, the military experts are saying that becomes an urban warfare dilemma where Russia could lose many more troops by one off kills.  They are saying there is no positive outcome possible for putin in the long term though he might win Kiev and maybe even Ukraine, but then what?  Europe arms up right at his border and he got exactly what he didn't want.   Regardless his standing in the world is forever gone.

[Mandryka]

Europe arms up right at his border and he got exactly what he didn't want.   Regardless his standing in the world is forever gone.

I think most of those borders are easily defendable against nato agression - by, for example, mountain ranges. Maybe someone who knows more about the geography of Ukraine's western borders will say if I'm right or not.

[Mandryka]

Regardless his standing in the world is forever gone.

Well Russia never had any standing in the world  - it is such a small economic force. It has the same standing as, for example, Spain.  What's worse, it's only asset is fossil fuels - which we're using less and less.

Anyone like to say what Russia's vision of itself is in 2050 - what it's aiming for? The biggest cheese in an Eastern Block, in a world made up of independent blocks?

[Florestan]

nato agression

NATO what?

[drogulus]

     

Europe arms up right at his border and he got exactly what he didn't want.

     Why would one think Putin doesn't want to control territory on the NATO border? I think Putin would be fine with NATO on the border of the imperial Russia he wants to achieve. What he doesn't want is NATO on the border of Russia as it exists. 

[MusicTurner]

I think most of those borders are easily defendable against nato agression - by, for example, mountain ranges. Maybe someone who knows more about the geography of Ukraine's westerrn borders will say if I'm right or not.

The Dnepr river with Kyiv is considered a barrier, splitting the country in two parts. Most of Ukraine is endless plains, I have tried the long-distance marshrutka bus rides between some of the major cities. This was about 10 years ago. The driver would pile the paid bank notes in an open shoe box next to his seat, and he'd then go a fatalist, around 85 miles/hour on very bumpy, but straight roads, avoiding the pot holes, for hours, stopping at a cafe with a digged-hole-in-the-ground toilet once in a while.

There are some mountains in parts of Western Ukraine, but they are less a wall than one might expect, and the Carpathians are diagonal.

Western Ukraine is traditionally much more Polish or German culturally. But as others have said, Eastern Ukraine is no longer russophile. There are countless videos of large demonstrations in cities against the new Russian occupiers there, and a lot of military resistance too. Mariupol has suffered a real lot of damage and civilian casualties, I find it hard to believe the Russians would become anything else than generally hated there. Of course, they have sympathizers, but not that many any longer.

[Mandryka]

NATO what?

Well America is a pretty big NATO influencer.