Europe at War

[Mandryka]

So said Kamala Harris, in both Warsaw and Bucharest.

Do you imply that both the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS are liars and should be trusted no more than Putin or Lavrov?

I'm sure it was you who once said that no Romanian would ever trust any politician. Quite right!

[Florestan]

Well America is a pretty big NATO influencer.

I meant, what NATO aggression against Russia? I can't remember the last time a NATO country, be it the original signatories or the latest members, ever threatened Russia or made the slightest aggressive gesture towards them.

[Mandryka]

I meant, what NATO aggression against Russia? I can't remember the last time a NATO country, be it the original signatories or the latest members, ever threatened Russia or made the slightest aggressive gesture towards them.

Sure, but my point was just this: it's not at all surprising that CSTO countries are a bit wary of NATO, and vice versa - why they would want to be sure they can defend their borders against each other.

[Florestan]

I'm sure it was you who once said that no Romanian would ever trust any politician. Quite right!

If I said that verbatim it was mere hyperbole --- to which I am sometimes prone, especially in matters political. The realist thing to say is that many Romanians would never trust any Romanian politician.

In the current context, many Romanians, yours truly included, trust the POTUS, the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS. They also trust the Norwegian NATO Secretary General and the Romanian NATO Deputy Secretary General.

Look, there is an ongoing hysteria in Romania to get, or renew, one's passport. People are queueing for hours in this respect. Our own passports are expired and my wife presses me hard, especially for a renewal of our son's passport --- but I am not going to queue up for a renewal. Either Russia will not attack us, in which case we don't need a passport; or Russia will attack us, which automatically means WW3, in which case we will probably be safer in Romania than in UK, France or Germany. 

[Mandryka]

If I said that verbatim it was mere hyperbole --- to which I am sometimes prone, especially in matters political. The realist thing to say is that many Romanians would never trust any Romanian politician.

In the current context, many Romanians, yours truly included, trust the POTUS, the VPOTUS and the SSOTUS. They also trust the Norwegian NATO Secretary General and the Romanian NATO Deputy Secretary General.

Look, there is an ongoing hysteria in Romania to get, or renew, one's passport. People are queueing for hours in this respect. Our own passports are expired and my wife presses me hard, especially for a renewal of our son's passport --- but I am not going to queue up for a renewal. Either Russia will not attack us, in which case we don't need a passport; or Russia will attack us, which automatically means WW3, in which case we will probably be safer in Romania than in UK, France or Germany. 

Fuck knows what will happen. You need a passport to come to London - get a passport and I'll buy you a drink or two.

[MusicTurner]

(..) or Russia will attack us, which automatically means WW3, in which case we will probably be safer in Romania than in UK, France or Germany. 

Probably true. In a bigger war, Copenhagen would likely be erased, and if so, what remained in tiny Denmark not really worth surviving in. The Swedes and the Norwegians have bigger land masses to seek refuge in, should they want to, and they are probably better preppers too, being more accustomed to outdoor life and their unspoiled wilderness.

[Florestan]

Fuck knows what will happen. You need a passport to come to London - get a passport and I'll buy you a drink or two.

Thank you for your offer --- now that you put it this way, I might just go renew my passport first thing Monday morning. 

Seriously now, Howard, you can be sure that if / when we'll visit to London you'll be the first to know --- and conversely, if / when you plan to visit Bucharest, just let me know. I would be glad and honored to meet you, my friend, whatever place.

[Florestan]

Probably true. In a bigger war, Copenhagen would likely be erased, and if so, what remained in tiny Denmark not really worth surviving in. The Swedes and the Norwegians have bigger land masses to seek refuge in, should they want to, and they are probably better preppers too, being more accustomed to outdoor life and their unspoiled wilderness.

I sincerely believe that the probability of WW3, while not zero, is very small.

[MusicTurner]

I sincerely believe that the probability of WW3, while not zero, is very small.

Let's hope so.

[Florestan]

Let's hope so.

Well, scelerate as he is, Putin's goal is to make Russia great again, not to bring about her complete destruction.

[MusicTurner]

Well, scelerate as he is, Putin's goal is to make Russia great again, not to bring about her complete destruction.

Some quick thoughts regarding things getting out of hand could be - 1) there's a lot of discussion whether he'll consider using chemical or smaller nuclear weapons, if under further pressure; 2) the atrocities against civilians might become too much to accept for the West; 3) whether he'll increase escalations, maybe by attacks, open or more subdued, on other countries, to obtain end game gains; 4) a new, amateurish administration in the US; 5) open conflicts as a result of NATO weapon deliveries; 6) ditto regarding the establishment of no-fly zones, or air bridges; 7) a local commander deciding for some further escalating measures; 8 ) more or less consciously brought disasters, such as on nuclear facilities or dam breaks with massive flooding of cities (a risk in that region); etc. 9) Putin forming an alliance with other countries for some further, aggressive steps; 10) xyz ...

[Harry]

Today it was announced by the Russian Orthodox in Amsterdam that all the priests and deacons refused to pray for Patriarch Kirill, and consequently left the church and asked the Patriarch of Constantinople to accept them. Good choice I hope the rest will follow. The parochians have to decide, until then no Liturgies. Our Bishop was rushed from Brussels in a diplomatic car from the Russian ambassy to get all noses towards Russia, but they refused point blank.
Hurray

[Florestan]

Some quick thoughts regarding things getting out of hand could be - 1) there's a lot of discussion whether he'll consider using chemical or smaller nuclear weapons, if under further pressure; 2) the atrocities against civilians might become too much to accept for the West; 3) whether he'll increase escalations, maybe by attacks, open or more subdued, on other countries; 4) a new, amateurish administration in the US; 5) open conflicts as a result of NATO weapon deliveries; 6) ditto regarding the establishment of no-fly zones, or air bridges; 7) a local commander deciding for some further escalating measures more or less consciously brought disasters, such as on nuclear facilities or dam breaks with massive flooding of cities (a risk in that region); etc. 9) Putin forming an alliance with other countries for some further, aggressive steps; 10) xyz ...

Why, of course, all of the above could happen. But to think about it day in, day out surely means one's losing their minds.

Que será, será,
Whatever will be, will be,
The future's not ours to see,
Que será, será,
What will be, will be

[Karl Henning]

My wife has a niece in Ukraine who has crossed the border on foot and made her way to Warsaw, where she has friends and a place to stay. Her parents, though, refused to leave, so the girl is safe, but not at rest.

[amw]

Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.

To clarify, I assumed he wanted Donetsk/Luhansk only. In both war and diplomacy there's a tendency to start out with maximalist demands one knows will never be accepted—in war, this usually means invading/attacking far more territory than you actually intend to keep, so that when negotiations do start you can make "concessions" that make you look good diplomatically by withdrawing from territories you occupy, while still coming out "ahead" in the sense of controlling more territory than when you started.

I think he might be hoping for a client state in Kiev, but I have no idea how he thinks he'll actually get there, not after he's shown Russian speakers throughout Ukraine how many of their lives he's willing to sacrifice. And an occupied but hostile Ukraine that ties up a large portion of the Russian military in an endless counterinsurgency benefits no one except the USA (even the EU will suffer a good deal due to Russian countersanctions and a constant flow of refugees). I don't put any stock in claims that Putin is merely insane—he's evil, not crazy—but I can't imagine why he thinks Russia as a whole, as opposed to himself personally, will benefit from this.

I'm not sure what my current assumptions are. That's probably another reason I stopped following the news.

[SimonNZ]

. I don't put any stock in claims that Putin is merely insane—he's evil, not crazy

The other day some one here said to stop calling Putin crazy because it was "lazy".

I didn't reply at the time but the more I think about it the more I disagree. If you're firing missiles into nuclear reactors you're some kind of crazy. If you're threating total carnage and even a nuclear exchange not for strategic reasons but because of your personal embarrassment that the plan isnt going your way you're some kind of crazy.

No, hes not walking-around-naked-yelling-at-traffic crazy, but from everything Ive heard I'd say he is living in an alternate reality partly due to being told only what he wants to hear and partly due to an uncontrolled narcissism.

[Dry Brett Kavanaugh]

Human traffickers are exploiting the war in Ukraine. Death penalty, preceded by 1000 hours of tortures, to them!

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/mar/12/children-going-missing-amid-chaos-at-ukraine-border-report-aid-groups-refugees?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[relm1]

My wife has a niece in Ukraine who has crossed the border on foot and made her way to Warsaw, where she has friends and a place to stay. Her parents, though, refused to leave, so the girl is safe, but not at rest.

That's awful!  I can just imagine how stressful that must be. 

[Que]

Not true. He wants all territories that are not predominantly ethnically/linguistically Ukranian: in the South all along the Black Sea coast and in the East. Plus he want a powerless puppet regime in the remaining Ukranian rumpstate.

This reminded me of the mystery of the possible endgame. We know what Putin wants, or rather: wanted, but now we know he won't be able to get it.

I've browsed the internet for some feasible theories, and found none. It's all highly speculative - ranging from Russian dominion over smoking piles of rubble, to escalation into a direct conflict with NATO or regime change in Moscow.

I think the most rational thing for Putin to do is to focus on taking the territories he wants, and then agree to a ceasefire and negotiate on condictions for retracting from northern Ukranian.

[Mandryka]

What does America want as end game?

One of the things Putin wanted was fresh water in the Crimea. Another was Odessa. A third was to ensure the neutrality of the Ukraine.